CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceGallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK
Queens
Efficiency #191
2025-26: 21-14 · 16-5 conf
@
Oklahoma St
Efficiency #89
2025-26: 20-15 · 7-13 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
80.9
win 24%
Projected
89.1
win 76%
No line posted yet.
Model: OKST −8.2 · total 170.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Oklahoma St 71.7, Queens 69.7 → 73.1 possessions
+10.3
Oklahoma St offense vs Queens defense
+7.7
Queens offense vs Oklahoma St defense
+3.7
Projected total
170.0
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Oklahoma St offense vs Queens defense
+7.7
Queens offense vs Oklahoma St defense
−3.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
Oklahoma St by 8.2
8.2
Queens side ◂▸ Oklahoma St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 169.9 against a projected 170.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Oklahoma St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 73.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Oklahoma St is the faster team (74.0, #6 of 365) and Queens the slower (70.6, #68). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
73.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
170.0
model
Projected team totals
80.9 / 89.1
Queens / Oklahoma St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.7#68
Queens
71.7#8
Oklahoma St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
Oklahoma St averages 74.0 possessions per 40, Queens 70.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 74 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageQueens
Where Queens scores: shooting
Queens shoots an effective 56.4% (#15); Oklahoma St allows 53.1% (#272). Expect about 55.2%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageOklahoma St
Where Oklahoma St scores: shooting
Oklahoma St shoots an effective 52.0% (#144); Queens allows 54.6% (#319). Expect about 53.4%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashQueens
Style match: 3-point volume
Queens takes 46.5% of its shots from three; Oklahoma St lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.4% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversQueens
Queens protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Queens's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Queens's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Queens at about 47.4% of its shots from three, Oklahoma St about 36.3%.
Queens has the ball
OffenseOklahoma St allowsvs D1 avg
56.4% #15
53.1% #272
+5.6 pt/100
14.8% #54
15.6% #243
+2.3 pt/100
30.2% #190
30.4% #178
-0.1 pt/100
35.4% #167
31.5% #96
-0.2 pt/100
74.9% #88
—
+0.2 pt/100
Queens net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.8 pts/100
Oklahoma St has the ball
OffenseQueens allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #144
54.6% #319
+3.0 pt/100
15.8% #120
15.1% #277
+2.0 pt/100
30.8% #169
33.6% #308
+1.1 pt/100
39.4% #70
38.1% #263
+0.5 pt/100
74.5% #102
—
+0.2 pt/100
Oklahoma St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Queensoffense vsOklahoma Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Queens shoots
Oklahoma St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.2%#3257.2%#12058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.8%#4248.5%#34439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.5%#9536.9%#12938.0%
Three35.7%#7436.0%#30433.7%
Oklahoma Stoffense vsQueensdefense
Share of shots by zone
Oklahoma St shoots
Queens allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.4%#18058.9%#18658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.4%#29550.5%#35739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.5%#24837.8%#15338.0%
Three33.9%#17636.5%#32533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Queens
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#251 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#190
Def reb %
66.4%
#308
Turnover %
14.8%
#54
Forced TO %
15.1%
#277
FT rate
35.4%
#167
FT allowed
38.1%
#263
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.7
Oklahoma St
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#87 of 365
Off reb %
30.8%
#169
Def reb %
69.6%
#178
Turnover %
15.8%
#120
Forced TO %
15.6%
#243
FT rate
39.4%
#70
FT allowed
31.5%
#96
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.0

Oklahoma St has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#87 of 365) to Queens’s −1.3 (#251).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Queens2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Queens's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
11Chris AshbyGSr6'2"35-3530.711.62.01.50.753.5%37.5%8.587.8%20.5%
1Nasir MannGSr6'5"35-3530.413.35.72.81.654.6%31.8%3.178.0%24.1%
24Yoav BermanGSo6'6"35-3029.212.33.93.61.748.3%29.7%4.278.7%25.2%
22Carson SchwiegerFSo6'8"34-2724.610.13.10.80.660.7%40.9%6.669.0%20.4%
6Avantae ParkerFJr6'9"35-3422.111.15.31.21.668.2%38.5%0.461.7%25.1%
0Jordan WatfordGFr6'5"35-820.811.82.63.91.961.8%37.5%0.777.8%29.0%
9Maban JabrielFSo6'9"35-219.87.73.81.00.961.6%43.2%3.277.4%19.9%
7Gus LarsonFSr6'10"35-111.83.12.10.70.755.3%18.8%0.557.4%16.8%
3Isaiah HenryGFr6'4"26-07.93.01.70.40.555.0%25.0%0.673.3%22.2%
5Kam ClarkFJr6'7"26-37.31.81.00.30.335.1%11.1%1.078.9%19.1%
4Reid CelestinGJr6'6"15-02.90.20.70.20.220.0%0.0%0.125.0%12.9%
12Tyler CriderGFr6'0"8-01.30.00.00.10.00.0%0.0%0.4—22.6%
25Jacob BrandlyGFr6'6"1-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
35Colby ChristiansenGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
2Danzelle Bullock ColesGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
8Jimma JamesGJr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
23Matthew WalterGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Saif-Allah ZatariGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Seamus WilsonGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
QueensOklahoma St
Efficiency
113.5
113.1
114.4
108.6
69.7
71.7
—
—
Shooting
56.4%
52.0%
58.9%
52.6%
35.7%
33.9%
74.9%
74.5%
35.4%
39.4%
Ball control & glass
14.8%
15.8%
15.1%
15.6%
30.2%
30.8%
33.6%
30.4%
9.0%
9.1%
9.4%
10.3%
Style
46.5%
35.5%
43.6%
45.9%
13.2%
15.5%
54.9%
50.4%
32.2%
35.8%
Roster
2.73
2.92
6'6.2"
6'5.4"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Queens
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Queens's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Oklahoma St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Oklahoma St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.