CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSchottenstein Center, Columbus, OH

Youngstown St

Efficiency #204

2025-26: 15-17 · 8-13 conf

Ohio State

Efficiency #31

2025-26: 21-13 · 13-9 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

67.7

win 13%

Projected

80.9

win 87%

No line posted yet.

Model: OSU −13.3 · total 148.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Ohio State 67.5, Youngstown St 68.3 → 67.4 possessions

−2.0

Ohio State offense vs Youngstown St defense

+5.9

Youngstown St offense vs Ohio State defense

−3.5

Projected total

148.6

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Ohio State offense vs Youngstown St defense

+5.9

Youngstown St offense vs Ohio State defense

+3.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Ohio State by 13.3

13.3

Youngstown St side ◂▸ Ohio State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Ohio State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Youngstown St is the faster team (68.6, #169 of 365) and Ohio State the slower (66.4, #278). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.6

model

Projected team totals

67.7 / 80.9

Youngstown St / Ohio State

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.3#187

Youngstown St

67.5#253

Ohio State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageOhio State

Where Ohio State scores: shooting

Ohio State shoots an effective 56.2% (#19); Youngstown St allows 52.3% (#228). Expect about 54.7%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.8 points per 100 possessions.

Youngstown St has the ball

OffenseOhio State allowsvs D1 avg

53.7% #76

50.2% #114

+1.2 pt/100

18.8% #313

15.6% #242

-0.5 pt/100

30.4% #182

30.0% #160

-0.1 pt/100

31.4% #272

34.7% #170

-0.2 pt/100

73.3% #159

—

+0.1 pt/100

Youngstown St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100

Ohio State has the ball

OffenseYoungstown St allowsvs D1 avg

56.2% #19

52.3% #228

+4.8 pt/100

15.3% #91

17.8% #106

+0.2 pt/100

30.4% #185

30.7% #191

+0.1 pt/100

37.2% #122

36.0% #210

+0.2 pt/100

77.7% #21

—

+0.5 pt/100

Ohio State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Youngstown Stoffense vsOhio Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Youngstown St shoots

39.9

5.3

5.5

49.2

Ohio State allows

31.5

8.2

20.1

40.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.9%#75	59.8%#220	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#337	38.4%#143	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.4%#176	42.7%#328	38.0%
Three	33.8%#184	31.9%#57	33.7%

Ohio Stateoffense vsYoungstown Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Ohio State shoots

31.3

9.5

18.8

40.4

Youngstown St allows

42.4

8.0

15.8

33.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.1%#14	59.8%#217	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	50.3%#12	37.4%#123	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	47.6%#4	33.6%#41	38.0%
Three	35.7%#72	35.5%#280	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Youngstown St

−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#263 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#182

Def reb %

69.3%

#191

Turnover %

18.8%

#313

Forced TO %

17.8%

#106

FT rate

31.4%

#272

FT allowed

36.0%

#210

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Ohio State

+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#132 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#185

Def reb %

70.0%

#160

Turnover %

15.3%

#91

Forced TO %

15.6%

#242

FT rate

37.2%

#122

FT allowed

34.7%

#170

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed+0.1

Ohio State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.2 (#132 of 365) to Youngstown St’s −1.8 (#263).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Youngstown St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Cris Carroll	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	30.3	17.4	5.2	1.8	2.7	59.4%	39.6%	7.1	78.0%	32.7%
9	Bryson Dawkins	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	26.8	12.6	4.6	1.4	1.5	56.9%	30.7%	3.2	61.4%	27.5%
2	Rich Rolf	F	Jr	6'7"	31-30	26.6	9.1	4.5	2.1	1.0	56.7%	36.8%	4.0	88.1%	19.4%
0	Jason Nelson	G	Sr	5'10"	31-31	25.0	6.9	2.8	2.9	1.6	44.1%	28.0%	2.4	75.0%	20.3%
6	Drew King	G	Jr	6'3"	32-1	17.4	2.8	3.1	2.9	1.2	50.9%	29.4%	0.5	71.1%	12.5%
1	Cam Polak	G	Sr	6'2"	29-10	17.2	5.8	1.6	0.6	1.1	55.3%	38.5%	3.6	79.3%	21.5%
7	Vlad Salaridze	F	Sr	6'7"	27-4	17.7	8.4	4.3	1.5	1.0	50.9%	33.3%	2.4	77.6%	28.3%
10	Imanuel Zorgvol	C	Sr	7'0"	32-14	14.7	5.7	2.8	0.3	0.9	65.2%	33.3%	0.4	69.6%	21.7%
8	Jaiden Haynes	G	Fr	6'3"	21-2	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.3	52.9%	33.3%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Tyler Robinett	F	Sr	6'8"	11-4	12.5	3.0	2.7	0.5	0.5	44.1%	16.7%	1.1	50.0%	18.5%
5	Shaheed Solebo	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	6.7	2.3	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	16.7%	0.9	53.8%	35.7%
3	Derrick Anderson	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	5.5	2.7	0.7	1.0	0.0	57.7%	16.7%	1.0	50.0%	38.7%
21	Connor Swider	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Markus Navarra	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Ohio State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Devin Royal	F	Jr	6'6"	32-32	32.5	13.7	5.7	1.6	1.7	52.5%	31.6%	3.1	80.2%	25.1%
0	John Mobley Jr.	G	So	6'1"	31-31	31.6	15.7	2.4	2.8	1.8	56.7%	41.1%	7.6	86.8%	28.2%
1	Amare Bynum	F	Fr	6'8"	34-24	28.5	9.7	4.9	1.1	1.1	56.1%	30.8%	2.7	72.6%	20.2%
4	Gabe Cupps	G	So	6'2"	33-0	12.2	1.7	1.1	1.1	0.6	45.6%	25.9%	0.8	73.7%	11.2%
3	Taison Chatman	G	So	6'4"	28-3	12.9	4.3	1.2	0.8	0.8	59.8%	47.1%	1.8	85.0%	19.8%
7	Ivan Njegovan	C	So	7'1"	30-2	11.4	2.6	3.0	0.7	0.6	58.8%	66.7%	0.1	65.5%	14.7%
14	Brandon Noel	F	Sr	6'8"	16-10	18.9	6.6	3.7	0.9	1.0	65.1%	20.0%	0.9	73.3%	18.3%
6	Puff Johnson	G	Sr	6'8"	9-1	11.4	2.3	1.1	0.1	0.4	41.7%	42.9%	0.8	66.7%	15.3%
9	Mathieu Grujicic	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.5	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.2	18.8%	14.3%	1.2	42.9%	20.7%
55	Braylen Nash	G	So	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
17	Josh Ojianwuna	F	Sr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Myles Herro	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Youngstown St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Cris Carroll	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	30.3	17.4	5.2	1.8	2.7	59.4%	39.6%	7.1	78.0%	32.7%
9	Bryson Dawkins	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	26.8	12.6	4.6	1.4	1.5	56.9%	30.7%	3.2	61.4%	27.5%
2	Rich Rolf	F	Jr	6'7"	31-30	26.6	9.1	4.5	2.1	1.0	56.7%	36.8%	4.0	88.1%	19.4%
0	Jason Nelson	G	Sr	5'10"	31-31	25.0	6.9	2.8	2.9	1.6	44.1%	28.0%	2.4	75.0%	20.3%
6	Drew King	G	Jr	6'3"	32-1	17.4	2.8	3.1	2.9	1.2	50.9%	29.4%	0.5	71.1%	12.5%
1	Cam Polak	G	Sr	6'2"	29-10	17.2	5.8	1.6	0.6	1.1	55.3%	38.5%	3.6	79.3%	21.5%
7	Vlad Salaridze	F	Sr	6'7"	27-4	17.7	8.4	4.3	1.5	1.0	50.9%	33.3%	2.4	77.6%	28.3%
10	Imanuel Zorgvol	C	Sr	7'0"	32-14	14.7	5.7	2.8	0.3	0.9	65.2%	33.3%	0.4	69.6%	21.7%
8	Jaiden Haynes	G	Fr	6'3"	21-2	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.3	52.9%	33.3%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Tyler Robinett	F	Sr	6'8"	11-4	12.5	3.0	2.7	0.5	0.5	44.1%	16.7%	1.1	50.0%	18.5%
5	Shaheed Solebo	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	6.7	2.3	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	16.7%	0.9	53.8%	35.7%
3	Derrick Anderson	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	5.5	2.7	0.7	1.0	0.0	57.7%	16.7%	1.0	50.0%	38.7%
21	Connor Swider	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Markus Navarra	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Youngstown St

Against the spread

Season

10-18-1

Home

4-8

Road

5-9-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.9

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

5-7

Road

10-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.8

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 53–68	+4.0	L−11.0	143.5	U121	84.9	109.0	62.4
Feb 28	Green BayAdjEM #222	A	L 63–85	+1.5	L−20.5	142.0	O148	96.4	130.0	65.4
Feb 25	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	A	L 65–78	−1.0	L−14.0	148.5	U143	94.9	113.9	68.5
Feb 22	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	W 64–58	−2.0	W+4.0	152.5	U122	86.5	78.4	73.9
Feb 18	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 106–82	−11.0	W+13.0	156.5	O188	151.0	116.8	70.2
Feb 15	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 70–76	−3.0	L−9.0	150.5	U146	97.9	106.3	71.5
Feb 12	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 86–82	+4.0	W+8.0	156.0	O168	123.1	117.4	69.8
Feb 7	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	H	L 66–72	−3.5	L−9.5	144.0	U138	102.2	111.5	64.6
Feb 4	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	W 90–61	+2.5	W+31.5	147.0	O151	141.6	96.0	63.5
Jan 30	IU IndyAdjEM #315	H	W 85–76	−10.5	L−1.5	154.0	O161	116.0	103.7	73.3

Ohio State

Against the spread

Season

17-16-1

Home

7-9-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +6.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-18

Home

10-7

Road

4-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −4.5

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#9TCUAdjEM #51	N	L 64–66	−2.0	L−4.0	146.0	U130	102.5	105.7	62.4
Mar 13	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 67–71	+12.5	W+8.5	155.0	U138	100.0	106.0	67.0
Mar 12	IowaAdjEM #22	N	W 72–69	+1.5	W+4.5	140.5	O141	124.1	118.9	58.0
Mar 7	IndianaAdjEM #45	H	W 91–78	−4.0	W+9.0	148.0	O169	134.0	114.8	67.9
Mar 4	Penn StateAdjEM #194	A	W 94–62	−7.0	W+25.0	152.0	O156	145.1	95.7	64.8
Mar 1	#8PurdueAdjEM #9	H	W 82–74	+6.5	W+14.5	149.5	O156	133.4	120.4	61.5
Feb 25	IowaAdjEM #22	A	L 57–74	+6.0	L−11.0	140.5	U131	97.4	126.4	58.5
Feb 22	#15Michigan StAdjEM #11	A	L 60–66	+10.0	W+4.0	147.0	U126	98.4	108.2	61.0
Feb 17	#24WisconsinAdjEM #28	H	W 86–69	−1.0	W+16.0	157.5	U155	125.0	100.3	68.8
Feb 14	#15VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	L 66–70	+5.0	W+1.0	147.0	U136	100.4	106.5	65.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Youngstown StOhio State

Efficiency

106.8

117.4

108.3

104.9

68.3

67.5

—

Shooting

53.7%

56.2%

56.6%

58.0%

33.8%

35.7%

73.3%

77.7%

31.4%

37.2%

Ball control & glass

18.8%

15.3%

17.8%

15.6%

30.4%

30.7%

30.0%

10.8%

8.1%

9.7%

8.9%

Style

49.4%

40.1%

42.0%

43.4%

14.0%

8.5%

53.8%

52.6%

36.9%

23.7%

Roster

3.58

2.19

6'4.3"

6'5.5"

93.2%

66.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Youngstown St

Returning minutes: 93.2%Returning production: 94.3%

Lost

Tae Blackshear 13.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Niagara

Added

Connor Swider no D1 minutes last season
Markus Navarra no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Ohio State

Returning minutes: 66.1%Returning production: 58.1%

Lost

Bruce Thornton 36.6 mpg, 19.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christoph Tilly 24.5 mpg, 10.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Colin White 7.5 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to Akron

Added

Myles Herro no D1 minutes last season
Josh Ojianwuna no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 66% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.