CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferencePete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, LA
Texas Southern
Efficiency #321
2025-26: 12-18 · 10-9 conf
@
LSU
Efficiency #72
2025-26: 15-17 · 3-16 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
68.8
win 10%
Projected
83.8
win 90%
No line posted yet.
Model: LSU −15.0 · total 152.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: LSU 67.9, Texas Southern 69.2 → 68.8 possessions
+1.1
LSU offense vs Texas Southern defense
+7.2
Texas Southern offense vs LSU defense
−3.9
Projected total
152.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
LSU offense vs Texas Southern defense
+7.2
Texas Southern offense vs LSU defense
+3.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
LSU by 15.0
15.0
Texas Southern side ◂▸ LSU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +15.1 against +15.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help LSU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Texas Southern is the faster team (70.6, #72 of 365) and LSU the slower (68.6, #168). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
152.6
model
Projected team totals
68.8 / 83.8
Texas Southern / LSU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.2#104
Texas Southern
67.9#219
LSU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
ClashTexas Southern
Style match: ball movement
Texas Southern creates off the dribble (assists on 43.2% of its baskets); LSU breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.3% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.5% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageLSU
Where LSU scores: shooting
LSU shoots an effective 52.8% (#111); Texas Southern allows 52.5% (#240). Expect about 52.8%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageTexas Southern
Where Texas Southern struggles: shooting
Texas Southern shoots an effective 49.7% (#251); LSU allows 50.9% (#150). Expect about 50.2%, 1.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashLSU
Style clash: 3-point volume
LSU rarely shoots threes (34.5% of its shots); Texas Southern lets opponents take 43.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 37.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashLSU
Style clash: paint scoring
LSU scores 46.3% of its points in the paint; Texas Southern protects the paint (38.9% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
Texas Southern has the ball
OffenseLSU allowsvs D1 avg
49.7% #251
50.9% #150
-1.6 pt/100
18.5% #299
13.9% #338
+1.0 pt/100
28.8% #237
31.7% #239
-0.3 pt/100
38.2% #96
37.8% #256
+0.4 pt/100
71.9% #211
—
-0.0 pt/100
Texas Southern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.5 pts/100
LSU has the ball
OffenseTexas Southern allowsvs D1 avg
52.8% #111
52.5% #240
+2.1 pt/100
15.6% #107
16.5% #187
+1.1 pt/100
33.1% #87
31.2% #211
+1.4 pt/100
40.9% #49
44.0% #345
+1.0 pt/100
76.4% #43
—
+0.3 pt/100
LSU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Texas Southernoffense vsLSUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas Southern shoots
LSU allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.0%#19656.4%#9858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.4%#13534.2%#4739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.1%#26039.9%#24138.0%
Three33.1%#22435.4%#27133.7%
LSUoffense vsTexas Southerndefense
Share of shots by zone
LSU shoots
Texas Southern allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.8%#5658.7%#17558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.3%#24043.7%#26139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.8%#11539.5%#22238.0%
Three33.1%#22534.1%#19033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Texas Southern
−3.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#314 of 365
Off reb %
28.8%
#237
Def reb %
68.8%
#211
Turnover %
18.5%
#299
Forced TO %
16.5%
#187
FT rate
38.2%
#96
FT allowed
44.0%
#345
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed−2.3
LSU
+0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#170 of 365
Off reb %
33.1%
#87
Def reb %
68.3%
#239
Turnover %
15.6%
#107
Forced TO %
13.9%
#338
FT rate
40.9%
#49
FT allowed
37.8%
#256
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers−1.9
Foul shots drawn+1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.7

LSU has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.3 (#170 of 365) to Texas Southern’s −3.5 (#314).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Texas Southern2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Texas Southern's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
7Zaire HayesGSr6'2"28-2727.39.61.81.11.451.1%37.1%3.884.9%20.9%
2Troy HupsteadFSr6'7"25-2429.514.69.31.11.854.1%30.5%2.468.5%27.4%
6Bryce RobertsGSr6'1"25-2429.511.32.22.01.251.8%36.8%5.882.9%22.2%
8Alex AndersonGSr6'6"28-723.59.83.61.91.552.4%20.0%0.571.9%23.6%
5Jaylen WysingerGSr6'0"28-1422.59.82.12.02.048.7%34.0%3.780.3%28.1%
12Zytarious MortleGSr6'2"28-919.58.03.61.71.745.3%25.0%2.468.3%28.4%
23Duane PoseyGSr6'7"26-720.58.75.50.51.151.3%25.0%0.275.9%23.9%
34Jordan GoreckiCSr6'10"26-1817.32.33.20.70.858.5%—0.050.0%9.4%
8Anthony AndrewsFFr6'7"25-513.52.81.80.80.644.1%37.5%0.660.0%15.0%
35Josh AkpovwaFJr6'9"24-98.72.11.60.30.746.2%0.0%0.051.7%18.7%
9Ahmed Nedal AbdelrahmanGFr6'8"12-012.73.81.70.50.454.2%34.6%2.253.8%16.6%
3Oumar KoureissiFSr6'11"8-217.54.93.00.41.535.7%0.0%1.160.0%23.9%
11Cameron PattersonGFr6'5"8-116.57.81.91.01.360.6%50.0%0.883.3%24.4%
14Kolby GrangerGSr6'5"4-314.32.31.80.31.831.3%20.0%1.3100.0%16.4%
24Jordan HamiltonGSr6'6"2-07.00.01.50.01.00.0%0.0%1.0—32.2%
4Josh FarmerFSr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
32Kehlin FarooqGSr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Texas SouthernLSU
Efficiency
103.4
114.7
112.7
107.9
69.2
67.9
—
—
Shooting
49.7%
52.8%
49.8%
54.5%
33.1%
33.1%
71.9%
76.4%
38.2%
40.9%
Ball control & glass
18.5%
15.6%
16.5%
13.9%
28.8%
33.1%
31.2%
31.7%
10.6%
9.5%
7.7%
8.3%
Style
32.5%
34.5%
44.5%
46.3%
17.7%
13.4%
43.2%
52.5%
37.5%
29.8%
Roster
3.66
2.99
6'4.7"
6'5.1"
—
60.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Texas Southern
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Texas Southern's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

LSU
Returning minutes: 60.6%Returning production: 60.9%
Lost
  • Marquel Sutton 31.4 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Max Mackinnon 30.9 mpg, 15.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Robert Miller III 18.8 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to Miami
Added
  • Matt Gilhool no D1 minutes last season
  • Marcus Vaughn no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 61% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.