CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceKohl Center, Madison, WI

Delaware

Efficiency #302

2025-26: 10-21 · 6-14 conf

Wisconsin

Efficiency #28

2025-26: 24-11 · 16-7 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

65.6

win 7%

Projected

83.0

win 93%

No line posted yet.

Model: WIS −17.4 · total 148.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Wisconsin 69.2, Delaware 65.5 → 66.4 possessions

−4.1

Wisconsin offense vs Delaware defense

+9.1

Delaware offense vs Wisconsin defense

−4.5

Projected total

148.7

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Wisconsin offense vs Delaware defense

+9.1

Delaware offense vs Wisconsin defense

+4.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Wisconsin by 17.4

17.4

Delaware side ◂▸ Wisconsin side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Wisconsin.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Wisconsin is the faster team (69.0, #151 of 365) and Delaware the slower (63.9, #356). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.7

model

Projected team totals

65.6 / 83.0

Delaware / Wisconsin

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.5#356

Delaware

69.2#107

Wisconsin

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageWisconsin

Where Wisconsin scores: ball control

Wisconsin turns it over on 12.8% of possessions (#4); Delaware forces turnovers on 14.0% of opponent possessions (#334). Expect about 12.8%, 4.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageDelaware

Where Delaware struggles: the offensive glass

Delaware rebounds 20.8% of its own misses (#362); Wisconsin lets opponents grab 28.2% of their own misses (#74). Expect about 22.6%, 7.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.7 points per 100 possessions.

ClashWisconsin

Style match: 3-point volume

Wisconsin takes 52.1% of its shots from three; Delaware lets opponents take 43.4% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 52.1% — both habits push the same way.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Wisconsin averages 69.0 possessions per 40, Delaware 63.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashWisconsin

Style match: ball movement

Wisconsin assists on 57.3% of its made baskets; Delaware allows assists on 60.7% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 60.9% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Wisconsin, Delaware) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Delaware at about 45.6% of its shots from three, Wisconsin about 52.1%.

Delaware has the ball

OffenseWisconsin allowsvs D1 avg

53.3% #89

51.4% #178

+1.7 pt/100

18.2% #285

14.3% #328

+0.9 pt/100

20.8% #362

28.2% #74

-4.7 pt/100

30.6% #291

29.8% #56

-0.6 pt/100

78.6% #10

—

+0.5 pt/100

Delaware net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.2 pts/100

Wisconsin has the ball

OffenseDelaware allowsvs D1 avg

54.5% #52

51.5% #185

+2.8 pt/100

12.8% #4

14.0% #334

+4.9 pt/100

29.1% #232

31.1% #206

-0.4 pt/100

31.5% #267

30.2% #62

-0.6 pt/100

78.8% #6

—

+0.6 pt/100

Wisconsin net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Delawareoffense vsWisconsindefense

Share of shots by zone

Delaware shoots

33.1

6.3

14.6

46.0

Wisconsin allows

34.2

7.5

18.0

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.4%#179	58.9%#187	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.6%#185	47.1%#333	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.0%#144	41.4%#286	38.0%
Three	36.8%#31	33.4%#151	33.7%

Wisconsinoffense vsDelawaredefense

Share of shots by zone

Wisconsin shoots

33.3

6.0

9.1

51.6

Delaware allows

33.6

5.7

17.4

43.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.8%#99	59.3%#206	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.7%#27	38.0%#136	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.6%#126	36.1%#112	38.0%
Three	36.2%#50	35.1%#255	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Delaware

−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#355 of 365

Off reb %

20.8%

#362

Def reb %

68.9%

#206

Turnover %

18.2%

#285

Forced TO %

14.0%

#334

FT rate

30.6%

#291

FT allowed

30.2%

#62

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.1

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Wisconsin

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#108 of 365

Off reb %

29.1%

#232

Def reb %

71.8%

#74

Turnover %

12.8%

Forced TO %

14.3%

#328

FT rate

31.5%

#267

FT allowed

29.8%

#56

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.8

Ball security+2.7

Forcing turnovers−1.7

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+1.4

Wisconsin has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#108 of 365) to Delaware’s −5.9 (#355).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Delaware2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
00	Christian Bliss	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	39.8	16.7	5.2	5.9	3.1	51.5%	39.2%	5.5	84.8%	27.4%
5	Macon Emory	F	So	6'8"	31-31	37.1	11.3	6.6	1.2	1.7	49.8%	28.5%	4.9	75.4%	21.0%
4	Justyn Fernandez	G	Sr	6'5"	28-28	37.4	16.6	4.6	2.1	3.0	52.9%	40.3%	5.7	87.8%	29.6%
20	Alex Kazanecki	G	Fr	6'6"	31-13	28.7	5.1	2.1	0.6	0.6	57.5%	37.1%	3.1	72.2%	10.9%
44	Tyler Houser	F	Sr	6'9"	26-26	33.3	14.2	5.4	1.7	1.3	57.4%	38.3%	4.1	81.7%	24.6%
11	Jayden Taylor	F	Fr	6'8"	31-10	15.3	3.1	2.4	0.2	0.5	61.7%	33.3%	0.4	61.8%	12.4%
15	Houston Emory	F	Sr	6'9"	24-5	11.1	1.7	1.6	0.3	0.6	72.7%	100.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.3%
1	Mason Ellison	G	Fr	6'4"	7-1	21.3	4.7	1.3	0.9	1.3	40.6%	16.7%	1.7	58.3%	18.1%
55	Jameel Brown	G	Sr	6'4"	4-4	23.5	9.8	2.8	0.8	1.8	46.9%	42.1%	4.8	75.0%	27.8%
35	Bouna Kebe	F	Sr	6'9"	14-5	5.7	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.1	42.5%	12.5%	0.6	0.0%	17.4%
21	Nnanna Njoku	F	Sr	6'9"	2-0	14.0	2.0	1.5	0.0	1.0	14.3%	0.0%	0.5	50.0%	25.0%
3	Cavan Reilly	G	Sr	6'4"	1-1	23.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	2.0	12.5%	0.0%	5.0	50.0%	26.2%
10	Brandon Baffone	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	2.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.4%
12	Alex McFadden	G	So	6'1"	4-0	2.3	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.4%
14	Lance Piper	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Wisconsin2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Nolan Winter	F	Jr	7'0"	31-30	30.7	13.1	8.5	1.5	0.8	62.6%	32.6%	3.1	74.2%	20.5%
7	Andrew Rohde	G	Sr	6'6"	34-34	26.5	5.7	2.1	2.9	1.1	47.8%	31.8%	3.9	77.8%	15.0%
32	Aleksas Bieliauskas	F	Fr	6'10"	35-28	20.1	4.9	4.4	0.9	0.8	52.8%	34.6%	2.3	63.3%	15.4%
22	Austin Rapp	F	So	6'10"	30-12	23.2	9.7	4.0	1.6	0.8	54.6%	36.3%	5.3	85.4%	22.9%
0	Braeden Carrington	G	Sr	6'5"	34-0	18.0	8.3	2.4	1.1	0.5	57.5%	40.1%	5.1	77.2%	23.9%
5	Jack Janicki	G	So	6'5"	26-1	16.5	2.2	2.0	1.1	0.6	42.3%	27.7%	1.8	60.0%	11.0%
23	Will Garlock	F	Fr	7'0"	30-0	6.7	1.1	1.1	0.7	0.4	72.2%	—	0.0	40.0%	10.3%
13	Hayden Jones	G	Fr	6'6"	27-1	7.2	1.7	1.0	0.4	0.5	63.5%	50.0%	0.1	54.5%	15.2%
4	Zach Kinziger	G	Fr	6'3"	14-0	5.5	1.5	0.3	0.6	0.1	40.0%	25.0%	1.1	50.0%	20.1%
11	Jack Robison	F	So	6'6"	16-0	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.3	93.8%	75.0%	0.3	66.7%	23.7%
18	Riccardo Greppi	F	So	6'10"	14-0	1.3	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	0.0%	28.3%
15	Isaac Gard	G	Sr	6'3"	14-0	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.1	64.3%	50.0%	0.4	100.0%	35.1%
6	Elijah Gray	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Delaware2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
00	Christian Bliss	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	39.8	16.7	5.2	5.9	3.1	51.5%	39.2%	5.5	84.8%	27.4%
5	Macon Emory	F	So	6'8"	31-31	37.1	11.3	6.6	1.2	1.7	49.8%	28.5%	4.9	75.4%	21.0%
4	Justyn Fernandez	G	Sr	6'5"	28-28	37.4	16.6	4.6	2.1	3.0	52.9%	40.3%	5.7	87.8%	29.6%
20	Alex Kazanecki	G	Fr	6'6"	31-13	28.7	5.1	2.1	0.6	0.6	57.5%	37.1%	3.1	72.2%	10.9%
44	Tyler Houser	F	Sr	6'9"	26-26	33.3	14.2	5.4	1.7	1.3	57.4%	38.3%	4.1	81.7%	24.6%
11	Jayden Taylor	F	Fr	6'8"	31-10	15.3	3.1	2.4	0.2	0.5	61.7%	33.3%	0.4	61.8%	12.4%
15	Houston Emory	F	Sr	6'9"	24-5	11.1	1.7	1.6	0.3	0.6	72.7%	100.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.3%
1	Mason Ellison	G	Fr	6'4"	7-1	21.3	4.7	1.3	0.9	1.3	40.6%	16.7%	1.7	58.3%	18.1%
55	Jameel Brown	G	Sr	6'4"	4-4	23.5	9.8	2.8	0.8	1.8	46.9%	42.1%	4.8	75.0%	27.8%
35	Bouna Kebe	F	Sr	6'9"	14-5	5.7	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.1	42.5%	12.5%	0.6	0.0%	17.4%
21	Nnanna Njoku	F	Sr	6'9"	2-0	14.0	2.0	1.5	0.0	1.0	14.3%	0.0%	0.5	50.0%	25.0%
3	Cavan Reilly	G	Sr	6'4"	1-1	23.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	2.0	12.5%	0.0%	5.0	50.0%	26.2%
10	Brandon Baffone	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	2.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.4%
12	Alex McFadden	G	So	6'1"	4-0	2.3	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	27.4%
14	Lance Piper	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Delaware

Against the spread

Season

14-15-1

Home

6-7-1

Road

7-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +0.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-14

Home

10-4

Road

6-8

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +13.9

Under in the last gameOver in 8 of 10 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	H	L 38–81	+2.0	L−41.0	132.5	U119	60.3	128.5	63.0
Mar 5	Sam HoustonAdjEM #101	H	W 83–80	+7.5	W+10.5	148.0	O163	116.7	112.4	71.2
Feb 28	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	A	L 82–90	+12.0	W+4.0	143.0	O172	117.9	129.4	69.5
Feb 26	Jax StateAdjEM #215	A	L 70–80 OT	+7.5	L−2.5	134.0	O150	104.8	119.8	66.8
Feb 21	MTSUAdjEM #167	A	L 66–78	+10.0	L−2.0	137.5	O144	106.5	125.8	62.0
Feb 18	Western KYAdjEM #159	H	L 87–88 OT	+4.0	W+3.0	139.5	O175	125.3	126.7	69.4
Feb 14	Missouri StAdjEM #212	A	W 76–67	+8.5	W+17.5	135.0	O143	121.0	106.7	62.8
Feb 12	FIUAdjEM #200	A	W 68–66	+8.5	W+10.5	146.5	U134	101.9	98.9	66.8
Feb 7	MTSUAdjEM #167	H	W 89–88 OT	+4.5	W+5.5	133.5	O177	129.9	128.5	68.5
Feb 4	LibertyAdjEM #103	H	L 69–75	+10.0	W+4.0	132.0	O144	110.6	120.2	62.4

Wisconsin

Against the spread

Season

20-14-1

Home

10-6-1

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

22-13

Home

10-7

Road

8-3

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.1

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#12High PointAdjEM #50	N	L 82–83	−10.0	L−11.0	161.5	O165	112.3	113.7	73.0
Mar 14	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 65–68	+12.5	W+9.5	161.5	U133	96.2	100.7	67.5
Mar 13	#9IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	W 91–88 OT	+8.0	W+11.0	157.0	O179	121.0	117.0	75.2
Mar 12	WashingtonAdjEM #59	N	W 85–82	−6.5	L−3.5	156.5	O167	128.5	124.0	66.2
Mar 7	#15PurdueAdjEM #9	A	W 97–93	+9.5	W+13.5	154.0	O190	147.6	141.5	65.7
Mar 4	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	W 78–45	−14.5	W+18.5	153.5	U123	135.0	77.9	57.8
Feb 28	WashingtonAdjEM #59	A	W 90–73	−2.5	W+14.5	153.5	O163	127.7	103.6	70.5
Feb 25	OregonAdjEM #143	A	L 71–85	−5.5	L−19.5	153.0	O156	102.5	122.8	69.2
Feb 22	IowaAdjEM #22	H	W 84–71	−3.5	W+9.5	147.0	O155	130.5	110.3	64.4
Feb 17	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	A	L 69–86	+1.0	L−16.0	157.5	U155	100.3	125.0	68.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

DelawareWisconsin

Efficiency

105.2

118.0

112.6

105.0

65.5

69.2

—

Shooting

53.3%

54.5%

51.7%

54.7%

36.8%

36.2%

78.6%

78.8%

30.6%

31.5%

Ball control & glass

18.2%

12.8%

14.0%

14.3%

20.8%

29.1%

31.1%

28.2%

11.4%

6.6%

10.4%

12.5%

Style

46.2%

52.1%

36.8%

36.2%

6.9%

12.9%

52.3%

57.3%

15.7%

28.3%

Roster

2.72

2.59

6'6.4"

6'8.3"

—

68.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Delaware

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Wisconsin

Returning minutes: 68.1%Returning production: 58.3%

Lost

John Blackwell 32.8 mpg, 18.6 ppg · transferred to Duke
Nick Boyd 32.0 mpg, 20.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Elijah Gray no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 68% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.