CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferencePizzitola Sports Center, Providence, RI
Boston U
Efficiency #237
2025-26: 17-17 · 12-9 conf
@
Brown
Efficiency #275
2025-26: 9-18 · 3-11 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM ET
69.8
win 43%
Projected
71.8
win 57%
No line posted yet.
Model: BRWN −2.0 · total 141.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Brown 67.9, Boston U 65.5 → 65.1 possessions
−7.0
Brown offense vs Boston U defense
−0.7
Boston U offense vs Brown defense
+1.0
Projected total
141.5
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Brown offense vs Boston U defense
−0.7
Boston U offense vs Brown defense
−1.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Brown by 2.0
2.0
Boston U side ◂▸ Brown side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Brown.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Brown is the faster team (66.7, #260 of 365) and Boston U the slower (63.5, #361). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.5
model
Projected team totals
69.8 / 71.8
Boston U / Brown
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.5#357
Boston U
67.9#220
Brown
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageBoston U
Where Boston U scores: shooting
Boston U shoots an effective 57.5% (#11); Brown allows 51.3% (#176). Expect about 54.9%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.2 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Brown averages 66.7 possessions per 40, Boston U 63.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 63 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversBoston U
Boston U turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.6% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Boston U's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Brown, Boston U, Boston U's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Boston U at about 45.2% of its shots from three, Brown about 37.7%.
ClashBoston U
Style match: 3-point volume
Boston U takes 43.8% of its shots from three; Brown lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.2% — both habits push the same way.
Boston U has the ball
OffenseBrown allowsvs D1 avg
57.5% #11
51.3% #176
+5.2 pt/100
17.8% #255
18.7% #62
-2.2 pt/100
28.0% #269
30.0% #164
-1.2 pt/100
31.4% #270
37.6% #253
-0.0 pt/100
73.4% #157
—
+0.1 pt/100
Boston U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.9 pts/100
Brown has the ball
OffenseBoston U allowsvs D1 avg
48.6% #299
53.6% #288
-0.5 pt/100
19.5% #337
13.0% #353
+1.1 pt/100
29.0% #236
28.0% #65
-1.3 pt/100
28.1% #342
30.5% #73
-0.8 pt/100
68.4% #316
—
-0.4 pt/100
Brown net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersBoston Uoffense vsBrowndefense
Share of shots by zone
Boston U shoots
37.6
5.1
14.0
43.3
Brown allows
37.3
2.8
16.3
43.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.0%#73 | 55.7%#77 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 54.8%#1 | 40.5%#200 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.4%#20 | 45.8%#355 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.8%#5 | 33.5%#157 | 33.7% |
Brownoffense vsBoston Udefense
Share of shots by zone
Brown shoots
44.3
4.7
14.9
36.1
Boston U allows
39.1
5.1
15.2
40.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.9%#276 | 54.3%#44 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.5%#90 | 53.8%#364 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.7%#297 | 45.4%#352 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.3%#338 | 36.6%#330 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersBoston U
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#298 of 365
Off reb %
28.0%
#269
Def reb %
72.0%
#65
Turnover %
17.8%
#255
Forced TO %
13.0%
#353
FT rate
31.4%
#270
FT allowed
30.5%
#73
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−2.5
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Brown
−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#308 of 365
Off reb %
29.0%
#236
Def reb %
70.0%
#164
Turnover %
19.5%
#337
Forced TO %
18.7%
#62
FT rate
28.1%
#342
FT allowed
37.6%
#253
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−1.8
Foul shots allowed−0.6
Boston U has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.8 (#298 of 365) to Brown’s −3.1 (#308).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Boston U2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Michael McNair | G | Jr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 36.1 | 16.9 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 61.4% | 44.4% | 7.3 | 73.8% | 25.5% | |
| 2 | Chance Gladden | G | Fr | 6'4" | 33-31 | 33.4 | 14.4 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 52.7% | 34.7% | 3.0 | 86.7% | 27.9% | |
| 6 | Sam Hughes | F | Fr | 6'6" | 34-26 | 30.1 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 52.9% | 37.2% | 5.4 | 80.6% | 19.5% | |
| 7 | Azmar Abdullah | G | So | 6'3" | 34-22 | 29.6 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 53.7% | 39.4% | 4.7 | 85.0% | 18.3% | |
| 14 | Ben Defty | F | So | 7'0" | 33-33 | 29.4 | 15.1 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 69.4% | — | 0.0 | 67.1% | 28.1% | |
| 21 | Donte Tisinger Jr. | G | Fr | 6'3" | 28-0 | 20.1 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 57.6% | 36.9% | 2.3 | 62.1% | 19.9% | |
| 30 | Ben Roy | G | Sr | 6'0" | 12-12 | 26.8 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 64.5% | 45.8% | 2.0 | 53.3% | 14.6% | |
| 3 | Malcolm Chimezie | F | Sr | 6'8" | 14-9 | 21.4 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 63.3% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 14.7% | |
| 32 | Quinn Nielsen | F | Jr | 6'11" | 29-0 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 57.1% | — | 0.0 | 48.1% | 12.1% | |
| 1 | Ethan Okwuosa | G | Sr | 6'3" | 8-2 | 19.3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 39.3% | 25.0% | 2.5 | 66.7% | 19.0% | |
| 15 | Andrew Bhesania | F | Fr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 71.4% | 44.4% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 27.7% | |
| 8 | Peter Carr | G | So | 6'5" | 4-0 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.8 | 0.0% | 21.3% | |
| 5 | Kyrone Alexander | G | Jr | 6'5" | 1-1 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 21.7% | |
| 0 | Matai Baptiste | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 41 | Otto Landrum | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Spencer Joyner | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Brown2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jeremiah Jenkins | G | So | 6'0" | 27-27 | 30.1 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 44.6% | 36.4% | 3.7 | 75.5% | 22.2% | |
| 5 | Adrian Uchidiuno | G | Jr | 6'2" | 27-8 | 25.3 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 42.1% | 26.2% | 5.4 | 81.3% | 27.4% | |
| 40 | Landon Lewis | F | Sr | 6'7" | 21-21 | 30.8 | 16.6 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 56.3% | 42.9% | 0.7 | 56.5% | 32.3% | |
| 45 | N'famara Dabo | F | Jr | 6'8" | 27-25 | 23.3 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 63.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 56.3% | 16.7% | |
| 12 | Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson | G | Jr | 6'4" | 27-11 | 22.2 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 41.5% | 22.6% | 1.1 | 73.9% | 16.6% | |
| 1 | Isaiah Langham | G | Fr | 6'5" | 27-13 | 21.1 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 45.9% | 18.8% | 2.4 | 70.2% | 28.2% | |
| 23 | David Rochester | F | So | 6'8" | 22-7 | 22.0 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 44.2% | 28.6% | 1.3 | 72.5% | 19.8% | |
| 14 | Luke Paragon | G | Jr | 6'4" | 26-18 | 16.4 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 59.2% | 39.0% | 3.8 | 93.5% | 21.8% | |
| 33 | Charlie O'Sullivan | F | Fr | 6'10" | 20-0 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 60.4% | 37.3% | 2.5 | 71.4% | 21.7% | |
| 30 | Brady Loughlin | G | Fr | 6'5" | 12-1 | 18.2 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 59.2% | 38.8% | 4.1 | 70.0% | 21.0% | |
| 6 | Wyatt DeGraaf | F | So | 6'10" | 14-3 | 9.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 68.2% | — | 0.0 | 42.9% | 15.7% | |
| 32 | Drew Kania | F | Sr | 6'8" | 8-1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 30.8% | — | 0.0 | 71.4% | 24.9% | |
| 4 | Jonah Drezner | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 61.1% | 42.9% | 1.4 | — | 19.4% | |
| 11 | Jerrell Barron Jr. | G | So | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Boston U2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Michael McNair | G | Jr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 36.1 | 16.9 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 61.4% | 44.4% | 7.3 | 73.8% | 25.5% | |
| 2 | Chance Gladden | G | Fr | 6'4" | 33-31 | 33.4 | 14.4 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 52.7% | 34.7% | 3.0 | 86.7% | 27.9% | |
| 6 | Sam Hughes | F | Fr | 6'6" | 34-26 | 30.1 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 52.9% | 37.2% | 5.4 | 80.6% | 19.5% | |
| 7 | Azmar Abdullah | G | So | 6'3" | 34-22 | 29.6 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 53.7% | 39.4% | 4.7 | 85.0% | 18.3% | |
| 14 | Ben Defty | F | So | 7'0" | 33-33 | 29.4 | 15.1 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 69.4% | — | 0.0 | 67.1% | 28.1% | |
| 21 | Donte Tisinger Jr. | G | Fr | 6'3" | 28-0 | 20.1 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 57.6% | 36.9% | 2.3 | 62.1% | 19.9% | |
| 30 | Ben Roy | G | Sr | 6'0" | 12-12 | 26.8 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 64.5% | 45.8% | 2.0 | 53.3% | 14.6% | |
| 3 | Malcolm Chimezie | F | Sr | 6'8" | 14-9 | 21.4 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 63.3% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 14.7% | |
| 32 | Quinn Nielsen | F | Jr | 6'11" | 29-0 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 57.1% | — | 0.0 | 48.1% | 12.1% | |
| 1 | Ethan Okwuosa | G | Sr | 6'3" | 8-2 | 19.3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 39.3% | 25.0% | 2.5 | 66.7% | 19.0% | |
| 15 | Andrew Bhesania | F | Fr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 71.4% | 44.4% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 27.7% | |
| 8 | Peter Carr | G | So | 6'5" | 4-0 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.8 | 0.0% | 21.3% | |
| 5 | Kyrone Alexander | G | Jr | 6'5" | 1-1 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 21.7% | |
| 0 | Matai Baptiste | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 41 | Otto Landrum | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Spencer Joyner | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Boston U
Against the spread
Season
17-14-2
Home
7-6-1
Road
9-8-1
Last 10
7-2-1
avg cover +5.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite, 1 push
Over / under
Season
19-13-1
Home
9-4-1
Road
9-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +2.0
Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Lehigh | A | L 60–74 | −2.0 | L−16.0 | 139.0 | U134 | 98.1 | 121.0 | 61.2 |
| Mar 8 | Navy | A | W 73–72 | +7.0 | W+8.0 | 136.5 | O145 | 119.1 | 117.4 | 61.3 |
| Mar 5 | American | H | W 75–73 | −2.0 | P0.0 | 142.5 | O148 | 124.8 | 121.4 | 60.1 |
| Feb 28 | American | A | W 68–65 | +3.5 | W+6.5 | 142.0 | U133 | 105.7 | 101.0 | 64.3 |
| Feb 25 | Holy Cross | H | W 78–63 | −8.5 | W+6.5 | 142.0 | U141 | 122.5 | 99.0 | 63.7 |
| Feb 22 | Lehigh | A | L 67–70 | −2.0 | L−5.0 | 141.0 | U137 | 114.0 | 119.1 | 58.8 |
| Feb 16 | Colgate | H | W 85–58 | +2.0 | W+29.0 | 146.0 | U143 | 148.4 | 101.3 | 57.3 |
| Feb 14 | Bucknell | H | W 82–69 | −5.5 | W+7.5 | 137.0 | O151 | 125.5 | 105.6 | 65.3 |
| Feb 11 | Army | A | W 85–68 | −3.0 | W+14.0 | 140.0 | O153 | 136.1 | 108.8 | 62.5 |
| Feb 7 | Loyola MD | H | W 78–69 | −5.0 | W+4.0 | 146.0 | O147 | 112.0 | 99.1 | 69.6 |
Brown
Against the spread
Season
13-12
Home
5-7
Road
8-5
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −3.4
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
12-13
Home
4-8
Road
8-5
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +1.3
Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Penn | H | L 61–82 | −1.0 | L−22.0 | 147.0 | U143 | 84.9 | 114.2 | 71.8 |
| Feb 28 | Cornell | A | L 80–86 | +9.5 | W+3.5 | 157.5 | O166 | 110.7 | 119.1 | 72.2 |
| Feb 27 | Columbia | A | L 62–80 | +5.5 | L−12.5 | 140.0 | O142 | 91.1 | 117.6 | 68.1 |
| Feb 20 | Princeton | H | W 80–71 | −3.0 | W+6.0 | 130.0 | O151 | 124.7 | 110.7 | 64.1 |
| Feb 14 | Dartmouth | A | W 79–76 | +3.0 | W+6.0 | 139.5 | O155 | 110.6 | 106.4 | 71.5 |
| Feb 13 | Harvard | A | L 53–56 | +8.0 | W+5.0 | 131.5 | U109 | 85.7 | 90.6 | 61.8 |
| Feb 6 | Yale | A | L 69–81 | +15.0 | W+3.0 | 139.0 | O150 | 105.7 | 124.1 | 65.3 |
| Jan 31 | Dartmouth | H | L 70–77 OT | −2.0 | L−9.0 | 143.0 | O147 | 93.7 | 103.1 | 74.7 |
| Jan 30 | Harvard | H | L 59–69 | +1.5 | L−8.5 | 133.0 | U128 | 96.8 | 113.3 | 60.9 |
| Jan 24 | Princeton | A | L 53–63 | +4.5 | L−5.5 | 133.5 | U116 | 83.1 | 98.7 | 63.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBoston UBrown
Efficiency
111.2
101.4
114.5
107.4
65.5
67.9
—
—
Shooting
57.5%
48.6%
56.9%
50.4%
38.8%
30.3%
73.4%
68.4%
31.4%
28.1%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
19.5%
13.0%
18.7%
28.0%
29.0%
28.0%
30.0%
10.8%
11.3%
8.9%
9.4%
Style
43.8%
36.3%
40.7%
50.4%
7.0%
13.3%
53.6%
59.5%
23.5%
37.1%
Roster
2.04
2.49
6'5.6"
6'4.9"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBoston U
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Brown
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Brown's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Nov 12 | 2025-26 | Brown 77 – 90 Boston U |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.