CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceWelsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL

Stony Brook

Efficiency #232

2025-26: 17-15 · 9-10 conf

Northwestern

Efficiency #78

2025-26: 15-19 · 7-16 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

66.5

win 19%

Projected

76.6

win 81%

No line posted yet.

Model: NU −10.0 · total 143.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Northwestern 66.9, Stony Brook 67.5 → 66.0 possessions

−4.9

Northwestern offense vs Stony Brook defense

+3.0

Stony Brook offense vs Northwestern defense

−3.2

Projected total

143.1

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Northwestern offense vs Stony Brook defense

+3.0

Stony Brook offense vs Northwestern defense

+3.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Northwestern by 10.0

10.0

Stony Brook side ◂▸ Northwestern side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Northwestern.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Stony Brook is the faster team (66.4, #277 of 365) and Northwestern the slower (65.3, #322). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.1

model

Projected team totals

66.5 / 76.6

Stony Brook / Northwestern

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.5#251

Stony Brook

66.9#299

Northwestern

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Northwestern averages 65.3 possessions per 40, Stony Brook 66.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageNorthwestern

Where Northwestern scores: ball control

Northwestern turns it over on 13.0% of possessions (#7); Stony Brook forces turnovers on 17.1% of opponent possessions (#138). Expect about 14.9%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.

Stony Brook has the ball

OffenseNorthwestern allowsvs D1 avg

50.2% #227

51.0% #157

-1.1 pt/100

16.8% #187

17.5% #119

-0.6 pt/100

28.0% #267

34.7% #332

+0.3 pt/100

28.4% #339

34.8% #172

-0.4 pt/100

72.3% #197

—

-0.0 pt/100

Stony Brook net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100

Northwestern has the ball

OffenseStony Brook allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #159

50.7% #138

-0.1 pt/100

13.0% #7

17.1% #138

+2.3 pt/100

28.1% #260

32.4% #274

-0.4 pt/100

33.9% #213

35.4% #191

-0.0 pt/100

75.1% #80

—

+0.2 pt/100

Northwestern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Stony Brookoffense vsNorthwesterndefense

Share of shots by zone

Stony Brook shoots

33.6

5.8

14.4

46.2

Northwestern allows

37.9

6.1

16.5

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.5%#328	60.5%#248	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.4%#281	33.6%#38	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.0%#79	38.8%#190	38.0%
Three	34.8%#128	33.4%#145	33.7%

Northwesternoffense vsStony Brookdefense

Share of shots by zone

Northwestern shoots

35.0

7.2

23.9

34.0

Stony Brook allows

36.9

5.5

18.3

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.4%#47	56.1%#89	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#233	37.5%#124	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#66	36.0%#108	38.0%
Three	33.0%#232	35.7%#291	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Stony Brook

−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#295 of 365

Off reb %

28.0%

#267

Def reb %

67.6%

#274

Turnover %

16.8%

#187

Forced TO %

17.1%

#138

FT rate

28.4%

#339

FT allowed

35.4%

#191

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.8

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn−1.7

Foul shots allowed0.0

Northwestern

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#140 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#260

Def reb %

65.3%

#332

Turnover %

13.0%

Forced TO %

17.5%

#119

FT rate

33.9%

#213

FT allowed

34.8%

#172

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security+2.6

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+0.1

Northwestern has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.9 (#140 of 365) to Stony Brook’s −2.8 (#295).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Stony Brook2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stony Brook's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Erik Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	30-30	34.4	19.4	4.9	3.7	2.8	48.3%	31.6%	5.7	74.5%	37.5%
2	Rob Brown III	G	Sr	6'4"	32-30	31.1	10.8	3.1	1.3	1.0	49.3%	35.9%	6.0	86.4%	21.5%
29	Andrej Shoshkikj	G	Fr	6'2"	32-21	26.0	10.7	2.6	2.4	1.8	59.3%	45.1%	3.2	96.4%	23.5%
12	Richard Goods	F	So	6'9"	32-27	25.0	7.7	5.9	2.1	1.4	49.3%	35.2%	2.8	51.3%	21.8%
21	Tomas Valentiny	F	Fr	6'6"	32-4	19.1	4.8	3.5	0.9	0.5	47.5%	32.1%	2.4	63.6%	16.9%
15	Quin Gorman	F	So	6'8"	31-30	18.6	3.9	3.6	0.9	0.6	50.0%	30.4%	1.5	65.6%	13.8%
7	Ethan Simmon	G	Sr	6'5"	27-5	16.2	6.0	1.4	0.4	0.3	59.2%	39.7%	2.9	69.0%	19.2%
5	Jonah Butler	G	Fr	6'6"	30-0	12.5	4.3	1.9	0.6	0.5	52.4%	32.3%	2.1	78.6%	20.7%
17	Oleg Kojenets	F	Sr	7'0"	32-2	10.3	2.9	3.0	0.4	0.7	39.3%	—	0.0	58.7%	23.1%
4	Toby Onyekonwu	G	Sr	6'2"	20-2	10.8	2.5	0.8	0.8	0.8	41.0%	25.9%	1.4	72.7%	19.2%
13	Collin O'Connor	G	So	6'3"	8-8	26.3	7.5	2.5	1.8	1.5	60.0%	28.6%	1.8	80.0%	16.5%
33	Leon Nahar	F	Jr	6'10"	6-1	4.3	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	37.5%	33.3%	1.0	100.0%	22.1%
11	Jake Harbatkin	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	4.0	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	13.6%
6	Liam Dagostino	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	4.0	1.0	2.3	0.0	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.7	50.0%	22.4%
10	Andrew Okafor	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Northwestern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Jayden Reid	G	Jr	5'10"	34-28	25.8	10.1	1.4	5.0	1.9	44.5%	31.7%	3.0	82.0%	28.3%
8	Tre Singleton	F	Fr	6'8"	34-31	25.0	7.6	4.8	1.5	1.0	50.0%	16.7%	1.6	73.8%	19.5%
44	Angelo Ciaravino	G	So	6'6"	33-18	22.0	6.3	3.9	1.2	0.4	54.6%	25.6%	1.3	58.3%	17.0%
3	Jake West	G	Fr	6'3"	33-17	21.8	5.3	0.8	2.8	1.0	49.4%	36.4%	2.3	77.4%	17.4%
22	Arrinten Page	F	Jr	6'11"	29-16	22.8	10.2	4.5	1.8	1.2	57.2%	25.0%	1.5	65.6%	26.2%
11	Jordan Clayton	G	Jr	6'2"	31-10	18.3	3.9	1.7	1.4	0.5	57.7%	41.0%	2.5	53.3%	12.9%
1	Tyler Kropp	F	Fr	6'9"	31-10	11.9	3.1	2.1	0.3	0.3	46.1%	27.3%	0.4	92.3%	16.6%
10	Max Green	G	So	6'6"	23-4	14.8	4.3	1.8	1.0	0.3	48.5%	33.8%	3.0	60.0%	19.5%
20	Justin Mullins	G	Sr	6'6"	24-3	13.5	3.2	1.6	0.8	0.6	53.2%	32.3%	1.3	50.0%	16.4%
24	K.J. Windham	G	So	6'3"	13-0	13.3	3.8	1.5	1.2	0.2	45.7%	33.3%	2.8	100.0%	17.8%
13	Phoenix Gill	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.2	12.5%	0.0%	0.4	75.0%	18.6%
54	Gus Hurlburt	F	Jr	6'9"	2-0	2.0	2.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	26.4%
43	Blake Smith	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Stony Brook2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stony Brook's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Erik Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	30-30	34.4	19.4	4.9	3.7	2.8	48.3%	31.6%	5.7	74.5%	37.5%
2	Rob Brown III	G	Sr	6'4"	32-30	31.1	10.8	3.1	1.3	1.0	49.3%	35.9%	6.0	86.4%	21.5%
29	Andrej Shoshkikj	G	Fr	6'2"	32-21	26.0	10.7	2.6	2.4	1.8	59.3%	45.1%	3.2	96.4%	23.5%
12	Richard Goods	F	So	6'9"	32-27	25.0	7.7	5.9	2.1	1.4	49.3%	35.2%	2.8	51.3%	21.8%
21	Tomas Valentiny	F	Fr	6'6"	32-4	19.1	4.8	3.5	0.9	0.5	47.5%	32.1%	2.4	63.6%	16.9%
15	Quin Gorman	F	So	6'8"	31-30	18.6	3.9	3.6	0.9	0.6	50.0%	30.4%	1.5	65.6%	13.8%
7	Ethan Simmon	G	Sr	6'5"	27-5	16.2	6.0	1.4	0.4	0.3	59.2%	39.7%	2.9	69.0%	19.2%
5	Jonah Butler	G	Fr	6'6"	30-0	12.5	4.3	1.9	0.6	0.5	52.4%	32.3%	2.1	78.6%	20.7%
17	Oleg Kojenets	F	Sr	7'0"	32-2	10.3	2.9	3.0	0.4	0.7	39.3%	—	0.0	58.7%	23.1%
4	Toby Onyekonwu	G	Sr	6'2"	20-2	10.8	2.5	0.8	0.8	0.8	41.0%	25.9%	1.4	72.7%	19.2%
13	Collin O'Connor	G	So	6'3"	8-8	26.3	7.5	2.5	1.8	1.5	60.0%	28.6%	1.8	80.0%	16.5%
33	Leon Nahar	F	Jr	6'10"	6-1	4.3	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	37.5%	33.3%	1.0	100.0%	22.1%
11	Jake Harbatkin	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	4.0	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	13.6%
6	Liam Dagostino	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	4.0	1.0	2.3	0.0	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.7	50.0%	22.4%
10	Andrew Okafor	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Stony Brook

Against the spread

Season

17-12-1

Home

9-4-1

Road

7-6

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 4 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

9-5

Road

5-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.6

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	CampbellAdjEM #208	N	L 89–96	+3.0	L−4.0	147.0	O185	123.2	132.8	72.3
Mar 3	TowsonAdjEM #149	H	L 57–69	+1.0	L−11.0	135.5	U126	93.1	112.7	61.2
Feb 28	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 58–67	+11.5	W+2.5	139.5	U125	83.8	96.8	69.2
Feb 26	MonmouthAdjEM #173	A	L 69–82	+4.5	L−8.5	146.5	O151	102.2	121.4	67.5
Feb 21	HamptonAdjEM #268	H	W 79–72	−5.0	W+2.0	135.5	O151	114.6	104.5	68.9
Feb 16	DrexelAdjEM #214	H	W 72–69	−3.0	P0.0	136.5	O141	110.1	105.5	65.4
Feb 12	TowsonAdjEM #149	A	L 57–69	+6.5	L−5.5	135.0	U126	89.9	108.8	63.4
Feb 7	NortheasternAdjEM #274	H	W 69–55	−4.0	W+10.0	153.5	U124	102.9	82.0	67.1
Feb 5	MonmouthAdjEM #173	H	L 75–76	−1.5	L−2.5	137.5	O151	104.5	105.9	71.8
Jan 31	ElonAdjEM #228	A	W 72–68	+5.5	W+9.5	147.5	U140	104.3	98.5	69.0

Northwestern

Against the spread

Season

18-16

Home

7-10

Road

6-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.8

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 7 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-19

Home

8-9

Road

4-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.5

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	#18PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 68–81	+13.5	W+0.5	140.0	O149	114.4	136.3	59.4
Mar 11	IndianaAdjEM #45	N	W 74–61	+6.0	W+19.0	142.0	U135	121.9	100.5	60.7
Mar 10	Penn StateAdjEM #194	N	W 76–66	−5.0	W+5.0	144.5	U142	119.6	103.9	63.6
Mar 7	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	A	L 66–67	+4.0	W+3.0	133.5	U133	119.7	121.5	55.1
Mar 4	#15PurdueAdjEM #9	H	L 66–70	+10.5	W+6.5	145.5	U136	114.9	121.8	57.5
Feb 28	OregonAdjEM #143	H	W 63–62	−3.5	L−2.5	142.5	U125	98.9	97.3	63.7
Feb 24	IndianaAdjEM #45	A	W 72–68	+8.5	W+12.5	146.0	U140	117.8	111.3	61.1
Feb 18	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	W 78–74	−8.0	L−4.0	142.5	O152	118.3	112.2	65.9
Feb 14	#7NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 49–68	+13.5	L−5.5	145.5	U117	76.0	105.5	64.5
Feb 11	#2MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 75–87	+15.0	W+3.0	153.5	O162	100.4	116.4	74.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Stony BrookNorthwestern

Efficiency

106.0

112.5

109.1

106.2

67.5

66.9

—

Shooting

50.2%

51.7%

48.5%

52.9%

34.8%

33.0%

72.3%

75.1%

28.4%

33.9%

Ball control & glass

16.8%

13.0%

17.1%

17.5%

28.0%

28.1%

32.4%

34.7%

10.2%

7.3%

11.7%

6.4%

Style

45.8%

34.0%

36.0%

44.0%

9.4%

15.6%

52.4%

65.8%

33.6%

31.7%

Roster

2.65

2.14

6'5.6"

6'4.9"

—

82.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Stony Brook

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Stony Brook's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Northwestern

Returning minutes: 82.8%Returning production: 74.0%

Lost

Nick Martinelli 34.6 mpg, 22.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Blake Smith no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.