CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFinneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA

Holy Cross

Efficiency #325

2025-26: 11-22 · 6-14 conf

Villanova

Efficiency #40

2025-26: 24-9 · 15-6 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

63.1

win 7%

Projected

80.3

win 93%

No line posted yet.

Model: VILL −17.1 · total 143.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Villanova 66.8, Holy Cross 67.1 → 65.6 possessions

−5.9

Villanova offense vs Holy Cross defense

+7.2

Holy Cross offense vs Villanova defense

−6.1

Projected total

143.4

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Villanova offense vs Holy Cross defense

+7.2

Holy Cross offense vs Villanova defense

+6.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Villanova by 17.1

17.1

Holy Cross side ◂▸ Villanova side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Villanova.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Villanova is the faster team (66.5, #269 of 365) and Holy Cross the slower (65.8, #302). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.4

model

Projected team totals

63.1 / 80.3

Holy Cross / Villanova

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.1#280

Holy Cross

66.8#302

Villanova

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageVillanova

Where Villanova scores: shooting

Villanova shoots an effective 53.8% (#74); Holy Cross allows 54.8% (#324). Expect about 54.5%, 3.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.6 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversVillanova

Villanova protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.0% is worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions for Villanova's offense.

AdvantageHoly Cross

Where Holy Cross struggles: the offensive glass

Holy Cross rebounds 21.9% of its own misses (#356); Villanova lets opponents grab 31.8% of their own misses (#246). Expect about 25.1%, 5.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

Villanova averages 66.5 possessions per 40, Holy Cross 65.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Holy Cross has the ball

OffenseVillanova allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #248

51.4% #181

-1.1 pt/100

15.3% #86

18.6% #69

-0.4 pt/100

21.9% #356

31.8% #246

-3.2 pt/100

31.5% #268

30.0% #59

-0.6 pt/100

77.2% #29

—

+0.4 pt/100

Holy Cross net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.9 pts/100

Villanova has the ball

OffenseHoly Cross allowsvs D1 avg

53.8% #74

54.8% #324

+4.6 pt/100

15.0% #66

14.1% #332

+3.4 pt/100

32.2% #118

27.0% #37

-0.2 pt/100

30.9% #284

27.6% #30

-0.8 pt/100

68.9% #302

—

-0.3 pt/100

Villanova net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Holy Crossoffense vsVillanovadefense

Share of shots by zone

Holy Cross shoots

33.1

8.5

22.4

36.0

Villanova allows

37.3

6.9

19.3

36.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.6%#310	60.9%#267	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.2%#49	38.8%#155	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	46.0%#7	40.0%#243	38.0%
Three	32.5%#252	33.4%#148	33.7%

Villanovaoffense vsHoly Crossdefense

Share of shots by zone

Villanova shoots

34.9

6.0

13.6

45.6

Holy Cross allows

41.5

6.4

13.3

38.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.6%#81	63.4%#333	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.5%#91	50.0%#354	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.4%#280	43.3%#332	38.0%
Three	35.7%#77	34.0%#181	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Holy Cross

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#248 of 365

Off reb %

21.9%

#356

Def reb %

73.0%

#37

Turnover %

15.3%

#86

Forced TO %

14.1%

#332

FT rate

31.5%

#268

FT allowed

27.6%

#30

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.8

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Villanova

+3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#53 of 365

Off reb %

32.2%

#118

Def reb %

68.2%

#246

Turnover %

15.0%

#66

Forced TO %

18.6%

#69

FT rate

30.9%

#284

FT allowed

30.0%

#59

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Villanova has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.0 (#53 of 365) to Holy Cross’s −1.3 (#248).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Holy Cross2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Gabe Warren	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.6	12.5	4.5	1.5	1.3	52.4%	33.7%	2.6	73.1%	23.5%
0	Tyler Boston	G	So	6'0"	32-32	32.0	14.2	3.7	3.6	1.8	49.7%	35.9%	4.0	82.3%	27.2%
2	DeAndre Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-18	25.5	7.9	3.2	1.8	1.4	48.1%	31.1%	2.7	81.0%	21.7%
23	Aidan Richard	F	So	6'6"	30-24	27.2	5.2	4.1	0.8	0.8	38.9%	22.3%	3.7	51.4%	16.1%
30	Joe Nugent	G	Jr	6'6"	21-21	29.7	11.8	3.6	0.7	0.9	59.1%	40.7%	5.6	87.2%	21.2%
4	John St. Germain III	G	Jr	6'1"	31-0	15.5	4.5	1.2	1.0	0.7	48.6%	36.0%	0.8	78.7%	18.8%
34	Declan Ryan	F	Jr	6'8"	26-4	13.5	4.9	2.2	0.7	1.2	55.2%	25.0%	0.5	62.5%	24.9%
1	Will Aljancic	F	Jr	6'6"	17-0	11.8	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.9	46.2%	25.0%	0.7	30.0%	21.7%
22	Chuck Hare	F	So	6'10"	24-3	7.7	2.2	1.7	0.1	0.3	46.7%	—	0.0	62.5%	19.7%
5	Jaden Kirkwood	G	Sr	6'5"	16-1	6.5	0.6	1.2	0.5	0.2	34.6%	16.7%	0.4	—	9.2%
11	Jude Haigh	G	Fr	6'5"	13-0	6.9	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.2	37.0%	27.3%	1.7	100.0%	20.8%
15	Tim Finau	F	Fr	6'11"	8-0	2.3	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	28.7%
33	Austin Mejia	G	So	6'3"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	4.8%
25	Ethan Clark	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	1.4	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	5.9%
3	Ben Capron	G	Sr	6'0"	3-0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Villanova2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Tyler Perkins	G	Jr	6'4"	33-33	29.8	13.7	5.4	1.6	0.8	53.2%	36.9%	5.4	74.5%	26.3%
2	Bryce Lindsay	G	So	6'3"	33-31	28.5	12.3	2.1	2.1	1.2	49.6%	35.6%	6.6	77.1%	27.1%
33	Matt Hodge	F	Fr	6'8"	29-29	27.6	9.2	3.6	0.7	0.7	57.2%	36.8%	4.7	65.2%	18.9%
7	Malachi Palmer	G	So	6'6"	33-4	18.3	4.6	1.7	0.6	0.5	58.6%	35.9%	2.4	76.2%	14.0%
17	Braden Pierce	C	So	7'0"	30-1	6.5	1.2	0.9	0.5	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	60.0%	11.0%
0	Chris Jeffrey	G	Fr	6'3"	22-0	8.3	3.0	1.0	1.0	0.2	54.3%	35.7%	0.6	80.0%	20.2%
6	Tafara Gapare	F	Sr	6'9"	9-0	16.3	2.9	2.9	0.4	0.7	31.5%	21.4%	1.6	81.8%	15.8%
1	Zion Stanford	G	Jr	6'6"	10-0	5.0	1.3	0.5	0.4	0.7	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	75.0%	23.4%
14	Wade Chiddick	G	Sr	6'4"	1-0	3.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	75.0%	38.5%
15	Malcolm Flaggs	G	So	6'6"	1-0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	30.2%
21	Nico Onyekwere	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Holy Cross2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Gabe Warren	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.6	12.5	4.5	1.5	1.3	52.4%	33.7%	2.6	73.1%	23.5%
0	Tyler Boston	G	So	6'0"	32-32	32.0	14.2	3.7	3.6	1.8	49.7%	35.9%	4.0	82.3%	27.2%
2	DeAndre Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-18	25.5	7.9	3.2	1.8	1.4	48.1%	31.1%	2.7	81.0%	21.7%
23	Aidan Richard	F	So	6'6"	30-24	27.2	5.2	4.1	0.8	0.8	38.9%	22.3%	3.7	51.4%	16.1%
30	Joe Nugent	G	Jr	6'6"	21-21	29.7	11.8	3.6	0.7	0.9	59.1%	40.7%	5.6	87.2%	21.2%
4	John St. Germain III	G	Jr	6'1"	31-0	15.5	4.5	1.2	1.0	0.7	48.6%	36.0%	0.8	78.7%	18.8%
34	Declan Ryan	F	Jr	6'8"	26-4	13.5	4.9	2.2	0.7	1.2	55.2%	25.0%	0.5	62.5%	24.9%
1	Will Aljancic	F	Jr	6'6"	17-0	11.8	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.9	46.2%	25.0%	0.7	30.0%	21.7%
22	Chuck Hare	F	So	6'10"	24-3	7.7	2.2	1.7	0.1	0.3	46.7%	—	0.0	62.5%	19.7%
5	Jaden Kirkwood	G	Sr	6'5"	16-1	6.5	0.6	1.2	0.5	0.2	34.6%	16.7%	0.4	—	9.2%
11	Jude Haigh	G	Fr	6'5"	13-0	6.9	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.2	37.0%	27.3%	1.7	100.0%	20.8%
15	Tim Finau	F	Fr	6'11"	8-0	2.3	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	28.7%
33	Austin Mejia	G	So	6'3"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	4.8%
25	Ethan Clark	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	1.4	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	5.9%
3	Ben Capron	G	Sr	6'0"	3-0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Holy Cross

Against the spread

Season

16-15

Home

6-6

Road

9-9

Last 10

5-5

avg cover 0.0

Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-16

Home

7-5

Road

8-10

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.2

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 66–69	+5.5	W+2.5	142.5	U135	99.1	103.6	66.6
Mar 3	LafayetteAdjEM #319	A	W 82–77	+4.5	W+9.5	141.5	O159	121.4	114.0	67.5
Feb 28	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	L 62–76	−1.0	L−15.0	151.0	U138	97.9	120.0	63.3
Feb 25	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 63–78	+8.5	L−6.5	142.0	U141	99.0	122.5	63.7
Feb 22	BucknellAdjEM #334	A	W 72–63	+2.5	W+11.5	141.5	U135	109.4	95.7	65.8
Feb 18	LafayetteAdjEM #319	H	L 83–86	−2.0	L−5.0	139.5	O169	116.1	120.3	71.5
Feb 15	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	A	L 73–83	+4.5	L−5.5	145.5	O156	112.2	127.5	65.1
Feb 11	ColgateAdjEM #223	H	L 70–74	+8.0	W+4.0	143.0	O144	102.3	108.1	68.5
Feb 7	LehighAdjEM #273	H	W 76–67	+1.5	W+10.5	137.0	O143	117.2	103.3	64.8
Feb 2	Boston UAdjEM #237	H	L 64–72	+2.0	L−6.0	140.0	U136	110.1	123.9	58.1

Villanova

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

8-9

Road

8-3-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −4.4

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

20-13

Home

11-6

Road

7-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.5

Over 3 straightOver in 6 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#9Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 76–86	+2.0	L−8.0	147.5	O162	111.5	126.2	68.1
Mar 12	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	N	L 64–78	−6.5	L−20.5	141.0	O142	99.4	121.1	64.4
Mar 7	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 91–78	−13.5	L−0.5	154.0	O169	128.2	109.9	71.0
Mar 4	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 76–57	−2.0	W+17.0	136.5	U133	108.2	81.1	70.3
Feb 28	#15St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 57–89	+7.5	L−24.5	148.0	U146	78.6	122.8	72.5
Feb 25	ButlerAdjEM #87	H	W 82–73	−10.5	L−1.5	147.0	O155	116.7	103.9	70.2
Feb 21	#5UConnAdjEM #10	H	L 63–73	+3.0	L−7.0	141.0	U136	100.1	116.0	62.9
Feb 17	XavierAdjEM #129	A	W 92–89 OT	−4.0	L−1.0	153.5	O181	116.7	112.9	78.8
Feb 14	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	W 80–69	−2.5	W+8.5	146.0	O149	115.3	99.5	69.4
Feb 10	MarquetteAdjEM #100	H	W 77–74	−9.5	L−6.5	145.0	O151	109.8	105.5	70.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Holy CrossVillanova

Efficiency

103.6

115.0

113.1

104.1

67.1

66.8

—

Shooting

49.8%

53.8%

50.4%

54.0%

32.5%

35.7%

77.2%

68.9%

31.5%

30.9%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

15.0%

14.1%

18.6%

21.9%

32.2%

27.0%

31.8%

9.7%

7.6%

8.3%

7.3%

Style

37.3%

45.7%

41.4%

40.3%

10.3%

11.7%

44.7%

56.8%

27.9%

27.3%

Roster

2.63

2.09

6'4.3"

6'5.5"

87.9%

58.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Holy Cross

Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 86.0%

Lost

Aiden Disu 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Villanova

Returning minutes: 58.6%Returning production: 51.4%

Lost

Acaden Lewis 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg · transferred to Miami
Duke Brennan 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
Devin Askew 23.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nico Onyekwere no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 59% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.