CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceWatsco Center, Coral Gables, FL

Wagner

Efficiency #285

2025-26: 14-17 · 9-11 conf

Miami

Efficiency #30

2025-26: 26-9 · 14-6 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

65.5

win 8%

Projected

82.2

win 92%

No line posted yet.

Model: MIA −16.7 · total 147.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Miami 68.7, Wagner 67.0 → 67.4 possessions

−2.0

Miami offense vs Wagner defense

+7.1

Wagner offense vs Miami defense

−5.7

Projected total

147.7

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Miami offense vs Wagner defense

+7.1

Wagner offense vs Miami defense

+5.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Miami by 16.7

16.7

Wagner side ◂▸ Miami side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 147.6 against a projected 147.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Miami.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Miami is the faster team (69.2, #137 of 365) and Wagner the slower (65.3, #323). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.7

model

Projected team totals

65.5 / 82.2

Wagner / Miami

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.0#285

Wagner

68.7#145

Miami

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMiami

Where Miami scores: shooting

Miami shoots an effective 55.3% (#32); Wagner allows 50.4% (#123). Expect about 53.2%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.

GlassMiami

Miami owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.7% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for Miami's offense.

ClashMiami

Style match: 3-point volume

Miami rarely shoots threes (31.9% of its shots); Wagner runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.0% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageWagner

Where Wagner struggles: ball control

Wagner turns it over on 18.5% of possessions (#301); Miami forces turnovers on 18.2% of opponent possessions (#88). Expect about 18.7%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Wagner) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Wagner at about 37.6% of its shots from three, Miami about 31.0%.

TurnoversMiami

Miami protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.3% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Miami's offense.

Wagner has the ball

OffenseMiami allowsvs D1 avg

49.6% #262

51.7% #198

-1.0 pt/100

18.5% #301

18.2% #88

-2.4 pt/100

32.8% #96

25.9% #19

-0.3 pt/100

32.3% #252

29.5% #50

-0.6 pt/100

72.6% #184

—

+0.0 pt/100

Wagner net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.3 pts/100

Miami has the ball

OffenseWagner allowsvs D1 avg

55.3% #32

50.4% #123

+2.7 pt/100

16.2% #150

14.9% #294

+1.9 pt/100

37.2% #14

29.6% #139

+2.6 pt/100

37.1% #125

40.8% #309

+0.6 pt/100

68.3% #320

—

-0.4 pt/100

Miami net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Wagneroffense vsMiamidefense

Share of shots by zone

Wagner shoots

40.3

7.6

16.3

35.8

Miami allows

33.7

7.8

17.9

40.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.3%#359	59.8%#219	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.0%#64	44.3%#277	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.0%#109	37.3%#138	38.0%
Three	36.6%#36	35.8%#296	33.7%

Miamioffense vsWagnerdefense

Share of shots by zone

Miami shoots

46.5

7.6

14.7

31.1

Wagner allows

41.2

6.9

15.7

36.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.2%#34	53.5%#31	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.6%#275	46.5%#326	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#54	37.5%#141	38.0%
Three	34.9%#127	34.3%#202	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Wagner

−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#312 of 365

Off reb %

32.8%

#96

Def reb %

70.4%

#139

Turnover %

18.5%

#301

Forced TO %

14.9%

#294

FT rate

32.3%

#252

FT allowed

40.8%

#309

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed−1.4

Miami

+7.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#7 of 365

Off reb %

37.2%

#14

Def reb %

74.1%

#19

Turnover %

16.2%

#150

Forced TO %

18.2%

#88

FT rate

37.1%

#125

FT allowed

29.5%

#50

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.2

Defensive rebounding+1.5

Ball security+0.4

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn+0.5

Foul shots allowed+1.5

Miami has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.2 (#7 of 365) to Wagner’s −3.4 (#312).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Wagner2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Wagner's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Nick Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	29-22	32.1	14.9	3.6	2.5	2.7	47.1%	28.3%	3.7	82.6%	31.7%
7	Eddie Placer	G	Jr	6'5"	30-14	25.9	8.5	2.4	1.3	1.1	51.1%	39.0%	4.5	77.8%	21.1%
9	Jaden Baker	G	Sr	6'2"	24-24	31.8	9.3	3.6	3.2	2.1	45.6%	35.4%	4.0	77.8%	22.2%
4	John Awoke	G	Jr	6'3"	29-10	26.2	7.1	3.0	2.0	1.4	48.7%	36.3%	3.5	78.6%	19.6%
22	Binael Basil	F	So	6'7"	30-21	22.7	8.9	6.1	1.1	1.5	57.3%	31.3%	0.5	56.4%	24.5%
10	Bryan Akanmu	F	Jr	6'6"	31-21	20.3	6.2	3.9	1.4	1.5	48.2%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	23.0%
2	Travis Gray	G	Sr	6'5"	21-12	21.5	8.7	5.6	0.5	0.8	49.3%	34.9%	4.0	76.4%	25.4%
1	Zavier Fitch	F	So	6'7"	18-10	23.2	6.8	6.2	1.1	1.0	55.0%	37.9%	1.6	59.0%	17.9%
5	Michael Cooper	G	Jr	6'6"	31-5	13.4	4.8	2.4	0.6	0.9	48.6%	34.9%	1.4	82.4%	23.6%
15	Makhai Anderson	G	So	6'6"	22-7	9.5	3.4	2.2	0.4	0.4	50.0%	27.3%	0.5	67.6%	21.6%
3	Elijah Brown	G	Fr	6'4"	19-4	6.2	1.7	0.3	0.1	0.3	66.7%	66.7%	0.3	66.7%	14.8%
24	Sam Smith	F	Sr	6'6"	7-2	15.4	9.0	5.1	0.6	0.7	59.4%	33.3%	2.1	100.0%	28.8%
12	Huascar Cuevas	G	Jr	5'11"	5-3	13.4	2.6	1.0	0.6	1.6	55.0%	42.9%	1.4	100.0%	16.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Miami2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Brent Blandat Saint Peter's	G	Sr	6'3"	29-29	33.1	13.9	5.0	1.5	1.0	51.6%	36.9%	7.4	78.3%	24.7%
7	Shelton Henderson	F	So	6'6"	35-35	31.3	13.8	4.9	2.1	1.8	58.7%	25.5%	1.5	57.6%	25.1%
0	DeSean Goodeat Robert Morris	F	Jr	6'8"	33-32	31.0	15.2	8.7	1.4	1.4	68.9%	57.1%	1.9	76.3%	23.8%
55	Acaden Lewisat Villanova	G	So	6'2"	33-33	30.5	12.2	3.0	5.3	2.2	49.6%	27.0%	3.0	58.3%	27.6%
5	Malik Reneau	F	Sr	6'9"	35-35	29.0	18.9	6.5	2.1	2.8	57.0%	34.7%	2.1	78.8%	36.2%
3	Nick Dornat Indiana	G	Sr	6'7"	30-12	23.2	8.1	2.3	0.3	0.7	57.3%	38.0%	5.3	87.0%	19.5%
2	Somto Cyrilat Georgia	C	Jr	6'11"	33-32	21.1	9.3	5.4	0.6	1.1	75.9%	—	0.0	57.8%	19.5%
35	Dante Allen	G	So	6'4"	30-18	23.8	6.6	2.8	2.2	1.0	50.6%	32.1%	2.6	58.3%	18.0%
6	Robert Miller IIIat LSU	F	Jr	6'10"	31-2	19.4	6.1	3.9	0.7	1.2	65.7%	0.0%	0.0	69.9%	17.1%
12	Quin Bergerat Bucknell	G	Sr	6'2"	30-8	16.6	3.1	1.4	0.7	0.9	44.2%	30.6%	2.4	71.4%	15.5%
13	L.J. Casonat Michigan	G	Jr	6'2"	28-0	18.6	8.4	1.9	2.4	1.7	60.6%	40.2%	2.9	70.9%	24.8%
4	Marcus Allen	F	Jr	6'7"	8-0	18.9	5.3	3.1	1.6	0.3	50.0%	38.5%	1.6	69.2%	14.9%
11	Caleb Gaskins	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Christopher Birden Jr.	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Egor Ryzhov	C	Sr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Quin Berger (from Bucknell), Brent Bland (from Saint Peter's), L.J. Cason (from Michigan), Nick Dorn (from Indiana), DeSean Goode (from Robert Morris), Acaden Lewis (from Villanova), Robert Miller III (from LSU), Somto Cyril (from Georgia)

Wagner2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Wagner's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Nick Jones	G	Jr	6'2"	29-22	32.1	14.9	3.6	2.5	2.7	47.1%	28.3%	3.7	82.6%	31.7%
7	Eddie Placer	G	Jr	6'5"	30-14	25.9	8.5	2.4	1.3	1.1	51.1%	39.0%	4.5	77.8%	21.1%
9	Jaden Baker	G	Sr	6'2"	24-24	31.8	9.3	3.6	3.2	2.1	45.6%	35.4%	4.0	77.8%	22.2%
4	John Awoke	G	Jr	6'3"	29-10	26.2	7.1	3.0	2.0	1.4	48.7%	36.3%	3.5	78.6%	19.6%
22	Binael Basil	F	So	6'7"	30-21	22.7	8.9	6.1	1.1	1.5	57.3%	31.3%	0.5	56.4%	24.5%
10	Bryan Akanmu	F	Jr	6'6"	31-21	20.3	6.2	3.9	1.4	1.5	48.2%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	23.0%
2	Travis Gray	G	Sr	6'5"	21-12	21.5	8.7	5.6	0.5	0.8	49.3%	34.9%	4.0	76.4%	25.4%
1	Zavier Fitch	F	So	6'7"	18-10	23.2	6.8	6.2	1.1	1.0	55.0%	37.9%	1.6	59.0%	17.9%
5	Michael Cooper	G	Jr	6'6"	31-5	13.4	4.8	2.4	0.6	0.9	48.6%	34.9%	1.4	82.4%	23.6%
15	Makhai Anderson	G	So	6'6"	22-7	9.5	3.4	2.2	0.4	0.4	50.0%	27.3%	0.5	67.6%	21.6%
3	Elijah Brown	G	Fr	6'4"	19-4	6.2	1.7	0.3	0.1	0.3	66.7%	66.7%	0.3	66.7%	14.8%
24	Sam Smith	F	Sr	6'6"	7-2	15.4	9.0	5.1	0.6	0.7	59.4%	33.3%	2.1	100.0%	28.8%
12	Huascar Cuevas	G	Jr	5'11"	5-3	13.4	2.6	1.0	0.6	1.6	55.0%	42.9%	1.4	100.0%	16.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Wagner

Against the spread

Season

15-12-1

Home

4-5-1

Road

11-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +3.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-13

Home

5-5

Road

10-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.9

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 56–64	+6.5	L−1.5	139.0	U120	87.6	100.1	63.9
Mar 4	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	W 70–60	+3.5	W+13.5	138.5	U130	114.0	97.7	61.4
Feb 28	Chicago StAdjEM #342	H	W 80–61	−5.0	W+14.0	135.5	O141	116.2	88.6	68.9
Feb 26	New HavenAdjEM #326	H	W 65–62	−2.0	W+1.0	131.5	U127	104.3	99.5	62.3
Feb 21	Saint Francis Red Wolves	A	W 65–56	−1.5	W+7.5	152.0	U121	100.0	86.2	65.0
Feb 19	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	A	W 83–80 OT	+3.5	W+6.5	134.5	O163	111.4	107.3	74.5
Feb 16	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 65–83	+10.5	L−7.5	137.0	O148	101.9	130.1	63.8
Feb 14	StonehillAdjEM #320	A	W 68–57	+3.0	W+14.0	129.5	U125	103.2	86.5	65.9
Feb 12	Long IslandAdjEM #195	H	L 57–67	+6.5	L−3.5	135.0	U124	81.2	95.5	70.2
Feb 7	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	L 67–84	+5.0	L−12.0	136.5	O151	102.0	127.9	65.7

Miami

Against the spread

Season

19-15-1

Home

8-9-1

Road

8-2

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

22-13

Home

13-5

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.1

Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#2PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 69–79	+8.0	L−2.0	146.5	O148	105.2	120.4	65.6
Mar 20	#10MissouriAdjEM #67	N	W 80–66	−1.0	W+13.0	145.5	O146	119.1	98.3	67.2
Mar 13	#10VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	L 62–84	+3.5	L−18.5	145.0	O146	99.3	134.6	62.4
Mar 12	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	W 78–73	+1.5	W+6.5	153.5	U151	114.0	106.7	68.4
Mar 7	LouisvilleAdjEM #14	H	L 89–92	−1.5	L−4.5	155.5	O181	138.1	142.7	64.5
Mar 4	SMUAdjEM #44	A	W 77–69	+1.5	W+9.5	156.5	U146	111.0	99.4	69.4
Feb 28	Boston CollegeAdjEM #187	H	W 76–54	−16.0	W+6.0	144.5	U130	117.6	83.6	64.6
Feb 24	Florida StAdjEM #74	A	W 83–73	−2.0	W+8.0	153.5	O156	117.2	103.1	70.8
Feb 21	#14VirginiaAdjEM #15	A	L 83–86	+7.5	W+4.5	146.5	O169	128.1	132.7	64.8
Feb 17	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	H	W 67–66	−8.5	L−7.5	148.0	U133	106.7	105.1	62.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

WagnerMiami

Efficiency

105.3

115.9

111.6

103.2

67.0

68.7

—

Shooting

49.6%

55.3%

46.6%

56.7%

36.6%

34.9%

72.6%

68.3%

32.3%

37.1%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

16.2%

14.9%

18.2%

32.8%

37.2%

29.6%

25.9%

10.7%

9.7%

10.4%

10.2%

Style

36.1%

31.9%

41.6%

51.9%

9.4%

14.2%

48.9%

54.4%

36.5%

25.0%

Roster

2.97

3.04

6'4.4"

6'5.9"

—

42.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Wagner

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Wagner's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Miami

Returning minutes: 42.5%Returning production: 45.1%

Lost

Tre Donaldson 34.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ernest Udeh Jr. 26.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tru Washington 24.3 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Timotej Malovec 14.1 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Noam Dovrat 7.3 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Salih Altuntas 7.1 mpg, 1.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Brent Bland from Saint Peter's · 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
DeSean Goode from Robert Morris · 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg last season
Acaden Lewis from Villanova · 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg last season
Nick Dorn from Indiana · 21.8 mpg, 7.6 ppg last season
Somto Cyril from Georgia · 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
Robert Miller III from LSU · 18.8 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season

Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.