CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMaples Pavilion, Stanford, CA
Oakland
Efficiency #172
2025-26: 16-16 · 12-9 conf
@
Stanford
Efficiency #77
2025-26: 20-13 · 9-10 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
74.9
win 24%
Projected
83.2
win 76%
No line posted yet.
Model: STAN −8.3 · total 158.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Stanford 68.1, Oakland 70.0 → 69.8 possessions
+3.3
Stanford offense vs Oakland defense
+5.4
Oakland offense vs Stanford defense
+1.1
Projected total
158.1
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Stanford offense vs Oakland defense
+5.4
Oakland offense vs Stanford defense
−1.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Stanford by 8.3
8.3
Oakland side ◂▸ Stanford side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 158.0 against a projected 158.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Stanford.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Oakland is the faster team (71.1, #46 of 365) and Stanford the slower (67.9, #209). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
158.1
model
Projected team totals
74.9 / 83.2
Oakland / Stanford
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.0#46
Oakland
68.1#201
Stanford
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageStanford
Where Stanford scores: shooting
Stanford shoots an effective 51.5% (#173); Oakland allows 54.7% (#322). Expect about 53.1%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.
ClashOakland
Style match: 3-point volume
Oakland rarely shoots threes (34.0% of its shots); Stanford runs teams off the line (33.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.2% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversStanford
Stanford protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for Stanford's offense.
GlassStanford
Stanford owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.8% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for Stanford's offense.
ClashStanford
Style clash: ball movement
Stanford creates off the dribble (assists on 45.8% of its baskets); Oakland allows assists on 66.3% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 57.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
ClashOakland
Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers
Oakland (#22 in live-ball turnovers) against Stanford (#41 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.0%. Historically Stanford's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).
Oakland has the ball
OffenseStanford allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #114
51.0% #158
+1.0 pt/100
14.7% #49
18.0% #97
+0.5 pt/100
31.3% #152
29.8% #149
+0.2 pt/100
38.1% #100
40.3% #305
+0.6 pt/100
75.1% #79
—
+0.2 pt/100
Oakland net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100
Stanford has the ball
OffenseOakland allowsvs D1 avg
51.5% #173
54.7% #322
+2.7 pt/100
15.5% #103
15.1% #284
+2.2 pt/100
32.5% #109
34.4% #324
+2.1 pt/100
35.5% #165
24.6% #4
-0.7 pt/100
73.2% #163
—
+0.1 pt/100
Stanford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersOaklandoffense vsStanforddefense
Share of shots by zone
Oakland shoots
45.2
8.6
12.5
33.7
Stanford allows
42.1
6.8
18.0
33.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.1%#192 | 58.2%#153 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.6%#56 | 38.8%#155 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.4%#135 | 39.9%#242 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#131 | 32.9%#118 | 33.7% |
Stanfordoffense vsOaklanddefense
Share of shots by zone
Stanford shoots
39.5
6.7
10.0
43.8
Oakland allows
36.5
6.6
14.8
42.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.8%#321 | 61.3%#277 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.0%#193 | 45.0%#299 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.1%#53 | 48.9%#365 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.2%#103 | 34.3%#206 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersOakland
+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#57 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#152
Def reb %
65.6%
#324
Turnover %
14.7%
#49
Forced TO %
15.1%
#284
FT rate
38.1%
#100
FT allowed
24.6%
#4
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+2.7
Stanford
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#121 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#109
Def reb %
70.2%
#149
Turnover %
15.5%
#103
Forced TO %
18.0%
#97
FT rate
35.5%
#165
FT allowed
40.3%
#305
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−1.3
Oakland has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.9 (#57 of 365) to Stanford’s +1.5 (#121).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Oakland2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Oakland's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Brody Robinson | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-32 | 35.8 | 17.6 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 52.2% | 36.8% | 6.4 | 79.8% | 26.6% | |
| 12 | Tuburu Naivalurua | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 54.4% | 34.0% | 1.7 | 71.5% | 23.7% | |
| 2 | Ziare Wells | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-26 | 26.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 53.5% | 37.7% | 1.9 | 70.9% | 21.2% | |
| 32 | Isaac Garrett | F | Jr | 6'8" | 28-28 | 28.9 | 13.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 54.8% | 25.0% | 0.9 | 80.4% | 25.9% | |
| 10 | Brett White II | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 24.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 55.5% | 36.5% | 6.3 | 71.4% | 19.5% | |
| 6 | Michael Houge | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-26 | 26.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 53.9% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 72.2% | 26.7% | |
| 21 | Khoi Thurmon | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-0 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 35.8% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 64.3% | 19.0% | |
| 13 | Warren Marshall IV | G | Fr | 6'6" | 29-0 | 12.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 57.2% | 23.3% | 1.0 | 58.3% | 15.4% | |
| 0 | Nassim Mashhour | G | So | 6'6" | 10-10 | 27.2 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 53.9% | 37.7% | 5.3 | 84.6% | 18.0% | |
| 5 | MJ Yeager | G | Fr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.9 | — | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Donny Yeager | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Hamoudy Mashhour | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | William Kassi | G | Jr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Stanford2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Benny Gealer | G | Sr | 6'1" | 33-31 | 29.5 | 10.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 60.3% | 41.0% | 6.4 | 89.5% | 18.7% | |
| 52 | Aidan Cammann | F | So | 6'10" | 33-15 | 21.7 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 50.0% | 26.8% | 1.2 | 70.5% | 18.5% | |
| 11 | Ryan Agarwal | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-19 | 22.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 46.0% | 34.9% | 3.4 | 69.6% | 19.5% | |
| 4 | AJ Rohosy | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-28 | 20.5 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 55.4% | — | 0.0 | 37.8% | 23.5% | |
| 25 | Jeremy Dent-Smith | G | Sr | 6'1" | 33-4 | 20.1 | 8.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 49.0% | 37.9% | 4.6 | 82.9% | 26.6% | |
| 10 | Chisom Okpara | F | Sr | 6'8" | 17-17 | 28.5 | 13.9 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 44.2% | 30.4% | 3.3 | 73.0% | 32.3% | |
| 15 | Oskar Giltay | F | Fr | 6'10" | 32-5 | 14.6 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 62.7% | — | 0.0 | 57.5% | 13.8% | |
| 2 | Donavin Young | F | So | 6'8" | 21-9 | 15.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 45.6% | 29.6% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 12.5% | |
| 24 | Jaylen Thompson | F | So | 6'7" | 20-6 | 11.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 21.1% | 0.9 | 66.7% | 14.5% | |
| 20 | Cameron Grant | F | So | 6'7" | 20-0 | 10.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 36.0% | 24.5% | 2.6 | 100.0% | 17.8% | |
| 12 | Kristers Skrinda | F | Fr | 6'10" | 9-0 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 38.9% | 25.0% | 0.4 | — | 10.2% | |
| 33 | Evan Stinson | F | So | 6'7" | 4-0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 18.5% | |
| 3 | Tallis Toure | F | So | 6'11" | 2-0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 7.4% | |
| 13 | Ethan Kitch | G | So | 6'2" | 3-0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | — | 37.9% | |
| 0 | Anthony Batson Jr. | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Myles Jones | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Oakland2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Oakland's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Brody Robinson | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-32 | 35.8 | 17.6 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 52.2% | 36.8% | 6.4 | 79.8% | 26.6% | |
| 12 | Tuburu Naivalurua | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 54.4% | 34.0% | 1.7 | 71.5% | 23.7% | |
| 2 | Ziare Wells | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-26 | 26.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 53.5% | 37.7% | 1.9 | 70.9% | 21.2% | |
| 32 | Isaac Garrett | F | Jr | 6'8" | 28-28 | 28.9 | 13.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 54.8% | 25.0% | 0.9 | 80.4% | 25.9% | |
| 10 | Brett White II | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 24.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 55.5% | 36.5% | 6.3 | 71.4% | 19.5% | |
| 6 | Michael Houge | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-26 | 26.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 53.9% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 72.2% | 26.7% | |
| 21 | Khoi Thurmon | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-0 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 35.8% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 64.3% | 19.0% | |
| 13 | Warren Marshall IV | G | Fr | 6'6" | 29-0 | 12.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 57.2% | 23.3% | 1.0 | 58.3% | 15.4% | |
| 0 | Nassim Mashhour | G | So | 6'6" | 10-10 | 27.2 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 53.9% | 37.7% | 5.3 | 84.6% | 18.0% | |
| 5 | MJ Yeager | G | Fr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.9 | — | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Donny Yeager | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Hamoudy Mashhour | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | William Kassi | G | Jr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Oakland
Against the spread
Season
17-14
Home
5-7
Road
10-7
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −5.3
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
19-12
Home
9-3
Road
9-8
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −3.2
Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | N Kentucky | H | L 84–85 | −2.0 | L−3.0 | 162.5 | O169 | 115.1 | 116.5 | 73.0 |
| Feb 28 | Detroit Mercy | H | L 89–95 | −8.0 | L−14.0 | 161.5 | O184 | 123.4 | 131.7 | 72.1 |
| Feb 25 | IU Indy | A | W 86–74 | −5.5 | W+6.5 | 167.5 | U160 | 118.5 | 101.9 | 72.6 |
| Feb 22 | Milwaukee | H | W 81–70 | −6.5 | W+4.5 | 160.0 | U151 | 123.9 | 107.1 | 65.4 |
| Feb 20 | Green Bay | H | L 68–73 | −6.5 | L−11.5 | 153.5 | U141 | 107.8 | 115.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 15 | Robert Morris | A | L 69–93 | +1.5 | L−22.5 | 156.0 | O162 | 104.4 | 140.7 | 66.1 |
| Feb 12 | Youngstown St | H | L 82–86 | −4.0 | L−8.0 | 156.0 | O168 | 117.4 | 123.1 | 69.8 |
| Feb 4 | Cleveland St | A | L 78–91 | −8.0 | L−21.0 | 169.5 | U169 | 109.5 | 127.7 | 71.3 |
| Feb 1 | N Kentucky | H | W 76–65 | −3.0 | W+8.0 | 167.5 | U141 | 99.6 | 85.2 | 76.3 |
| Jan 28 | Purdue FW | A | W 74–65 | −1.0 | W+8.0 | 162.5 | U139 | 106.6 | 93.6 | 69.4 |
Stanford
Against the spread
Season
16-15-2
Home
9-8-1
Road
4-5-1
Last 10
5-4-1
avg cover +3.9
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-18
Home
9-9
Road
5-5
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +4.8
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | West Virginia | N | L 77–82 OT | +2.0 | L−3.0 | 135.5 | O159 | 104.9 | 111.7 | 73.4 |
| Mar 10 | Pitt | N | L 63–64 | −5.0 | L−6.0 | 136.5 | U127 | 107.6 | 109.3 | 58.6 |
| Mar 7 | NC State | A | W 85–84 | +9.0 | W+10.0 | 152.5 | O169 | 123.7 | 122.3 | 68.7 |
| Mar 4 | Notre Dame | A | W 86–78 | −1.0 | W+7.0 | 147.0 | O164 | 135.5 | 122.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 28 | SMU | H | W 95–75 | −1.0 | W+19.0 | 154.5 | O170 | 147.6 | 116.6 | 64.3 |
| Feb 25 | Pitt | H | W 75–67 | −8.0 | P0.0 | 138.5 | O142 | 122.1 | 109.1 | 61.4 |
| Feb 21 | California | A | L 66–72 | +1.0 | L−5.0 | 148.0 | U138 | 95.2 | 103.8 | 69.3 |
| Feb 14 | Wake Forest | A | L 63–68 | +4.0 | L−1.0 | 149.0 | U131 | 100.1 | 108.1 | 62.9 |
| Feb 11 | Boston College | A | W 70–64 | −3.0 | W+3.0 | 139.5 | U134 | 102.2 | 93.4 | 68.5 |
| Feb 7 | Georgia Tech | H | W 95–72 | −8.5 | W+14.5 | 151.5 | O167 | 130.9 | 99.2 | 72.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOaklandStanford
Efficiency
112.6
112.4
112.3
106.0
70.0
68.1
—
—
Shooting
52.7%
51.5%
53.0%
50.5%
34.7%
35.2%
75.1%
73.2%
38.1%
35.5%
Ball control & glass
14.7%
15.5%
15.1%
18.0%
31.3%
32.5%
34.4%
29.8%
7.6%
7.3%
11.7%
9.5%
Style
34.0%
44.0%
49.0%
40.3%
18.8%
12.9%
54.9%
45.8%
23.7%
33.7%
Roster
3.55
3.04
6'5.1"
6'6.2"
—
83.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputOakland
Returning minutes: 99.3%Returning production: 99.6%
ESPN hasn't posted Oakland's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 99% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Stanford
Returning minutes: 83.6%Returning production: 73.5%
Lost
- Ebuka Okorie 33.0 mpg, 21.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Myles Jones no D1 minutes last season
- Anthony Batson Jr. no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.