CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceKnott Arena, Emmitsburg, MD

Loyola MD

Efficiency #313

2025-26: 12-20 · 8-11 conf

Mount St Marys

Efficiency #265

2025-26: 15-17 · 11-10 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM ET

70.4

win 30%

Projected

76.6

win 70%

No line posted yet.

Model: MSM −6.2 · total 147.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Mount St Marys 68.5, Loyola MD 68.8 → 69.0 possessions

+1.6

Mount St Marys offense vs Loyola MD defense

−0.3

Loyola MD offense vs Mount St Marys defense

−2.5

Projected total

147.0

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Mount St Marys offense vs Loyola MD defense

−0.3

Loyola MD offense vs Mount St Marys defense

+2.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Mount St Marys by 6.2

6.2

Loyola MD side ◂▸ Mount St Marys side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Mount St Marys.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Loyola MD is the faster team (68.1, #194 of 365) and Mount St Marys the slower (67.7, #214). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.0

model

Projected team totals

70.4 / 76.6

Loyola MD / Mount St Marys

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.8#134

Loyola MD

68.5#164

Mount St Marys

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageLoyola MD

Where Loyola MD struggles: shooting

Loyola MD shoots an effective 50.4% (#219); Mount St Marys allows 47.2% (#23). Expect about 48.7%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.

ClashLoyola MD

Style match: 3-point volume

Loyola MD takes 47.2% of its shots from three; Mount St Marys lets opponents take 44.9% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 49.2% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageMount St Marys

Where Mount St Marys struggles: ball control

Mount St Marys turns it over on 22.4% of possessions (#364); Loyola MD forces turnovers on 15.3% of opponent possessions (#265). Expect about 19.0%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversLoyola MD

Loyola MD protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for Loyola MD's offense.

GlassLoyola MD

Loyola MD gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.8% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Loyola MD's offense.

Loyola MD has the ball

OffenseMount St Marys allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #219

47.2% #23

-3.6 pt/100

15.5% #105

15.3% #261

+2.0 pt/100

27.6% #279

29.1% #114

-1.6 pt/100

29.9% #312

37.3% #247

-0.1 pt/100

71.5% #223

—

-0.1 pt/100

Loyola MD net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.4 pts/100

Mount St Marys has the ball

OffenseLoyola MD allowsvs D1 avg

50.6% #208

54.7% #321

+1.9 pt/100

22.4% #364

15.3% #265

-2.8 pt/100

32.3% #115

29.0% #103

+0.4 pt/100

33.3% #230

32.7% #123

-0.3 pt/100

67.4% #337

—

-0.4 pt/100

Mount St Marys net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Loyola MDoffense vsMount St Marysdefense

Share of shots by zone

Loyola MD shoots

36.6

7.1

9.0

47.2

Mount St Marys allows

32.9

3.1

19.0

45.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.6%#251	49.4%#4	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.6%#44	38.5%#145	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.1%#262	38.1%#162	38.0%
Three	32.6%#251	32.3%#81	33.7%

Mount St Marysoffense vsLoyola MDdefense

Share of shots by zone

Mount St Marys shoots

42.3

4.1

10.9

42.8

Loyola MD allows

36.9

5.5

17.4

40.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.2%#188	65.1%#352	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.6%#158	52.3%#359	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.2%#359	47.3%#362	38.0%
Three	32.7%#244	32.8%#106	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Loyola MD

−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#240 of 365

Off reb %

27.6%

#279

Def reb %

71.0%

#103

Turnover %

15.5%

#105

Forced TO %

15.3%

#265

FT rate

29.9%

#312

FT allowed

32.7%

#123

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.9

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Mount St Marys

−4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#343 of 365

Off reb %

32.3%

#115

Def reb %

70.9%

#114

Turnover %

22.4%

#364

Forced TO %

15.3%

#261

FT rate

33.3%

#230

FT allowed

37.3%

#247

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−3.8

Forcing turnovers−0.9

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed−0.5

Loyola MD has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.1 (#240 of 365) to Mount St Marys’s −4.7 (#343).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Loyola MD2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Braeden Speed	G	So	6'3"	32-32	32.7	15.3	4.4	3.8	2.0	52.3%	36.5%	4.6	82.2%	26.9%
3	Jordan Stiemke	G	Jr	6'5"	32-28	27.5	9.9	3.1	1.4	0.9	48.6%	33.7%	5.1	81.1%	22.1%
15	Tyson Commander	G	Sr	6'4"	31-17	23.5	4.1	2.6	1.1	1.2	54.8%	40.8%	1.6	72.2%	11.9%
18	Emmett Adair	F	Fr	6'9"	27-15	25.4	14.6	5.4	1.0	1.4	53.5%	31.5%	5.3	81.1%	33.2%
22	Sam Springer	F	So	6'7"	32-31	16.8	4.9	2.2	0.6	0.7	50.0%	35.1%	2.3	68.3%	18.2%
24	Sebastien Emenalo	G	Fr	6'6"	31-0	14.5	3.2	3.3	0.4	0.5	45.9%	30.9%	1.8	47.6%	16.0%
2	Troy Cicero Jr.	G	Jr	6'2"	32-0	13.9	5.8	2.2	0.7	0.5	52.5%	38.0%	3.8	77.3%	24.6%
1	Carter Berg-McLean	G	Fr	6'4"	30-0	13.9	3.3	2.5	1.6	0.7	41.9%	19.2%	0.9	76.2%	18.4%
7	Jonas Sirtautas	F	Jr	6'10"	19-12	19.3	6.5	3.6	0.6	0.9	63.3%	14.3%	0.7	47.9%	18.7%
17	Everett Barnes	F	Fr	6'9"	25-5	8.5	1.5	1.6	0.3	0.3	51.5%	40.0%	0.2	20.0%	13.6%
14	Garrett Brennan	G	Sr	6'4"	14-1	4.1	0.9	1.2	0.4	0.1	36.7%	12.5%	0.6	28.6%	18.8%
13	Ben Menker	G	So	6'5"	12-0	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	26.8%
5	Peter Sposito	G	Sr	6'2"	11-1	1.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.1	21.4%	25.0%	0.4	0.0%	30.1%
8	Goap Kodi	F	So	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Mount St Marys2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Redd Thompson Jr.at Longwood	G	Jr	5'11"	32-1	22.1	10.3	1.6	2.0	1.7	49.2%	32.9%	4.6	88.0%	28.9%
4	Mason So	G	Sr	6'2"	31-16	18.2	3.9	2.4	2.3	1.9	51.5%	35.5%	2.0	78.9%	17.4%
9	Abdou Khadre Kebe	G	Jr	6'7"	22-13	21.9	7.7	5.6	1.0	1.3	47.3%	27.8%	3.6	69.0%	24.6%
30	Anthony Arrington Jr.	G	Sr	6'3"	22-2	19.0	5.7	2.1	1.1	1.7	37.8%	21.7%	2.7	50.0%	28.3%
1	Anastasios Rozakeas	G	Jr	6'8"	24-8	14.4	3.8	2.0	0.5	0.6	45.7%	32.9%	2.9	83.3%	18.4%
7	Wilguens Jr. Exacteat Drake	F	Sr	6'6"	18-13	19.4	7.3	4.5	1.6	1.4	45.2%	22.2%	2.5	68.3%	27.3%
23	Yakhya Diop	F	So	7'0"	31-0	8.8	1.8	2.8	0.1	0.8	50.0%	—	0.0	64.7%	16.1%
10	Cade Ornessat Gonzaga	G	So	6'4"	8-0	2.5	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.4	50.0%	—	0.0	20.0%	20.2%
5	Noah Rogers	G	Jr	5'11"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	10.1%
6	Jaxon Hartman	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
16	Crue Gard	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Julien Smith	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Liam Joyce	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Miquel Llompart	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Noah Limol	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Ryan Brzezanski	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Wilguens Jr. Exacte (from Drake), Cade Orness (from Gonzaga), Redd Thompson Jr. (from Longwood)

Loyola MD2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Braeden Speed	G	So	6'3"	32-32	32.7	15.3	4.4	3.8	2.0	52.3%	36.5%	4.6	82.2%	26.9%
3	Jordan Stiemke	G	Jr	6'5"	32-28	27.5	9.9	3.1	1.4	0.9	48.6%	33.7%	5.1	81.1%	22.1%
15	Tyson Commander	G	Sr	6'4"	31-17	23.5	4.1	2.6	1.1	1.2	54.8%	40.8%	1.6	72.2%	11.9%
18	Emmett Adair	F	Fr	6'9"	27-15	25.4	14.6	5.4	1.0	1.4	53.5%	31.5%	5.3	81.1%	33.2%
22	Sam Springer	F	So	6'7"	32-31	16.8	4.9	2.2	0.6	0.7	50.0%	35.1%	2.3	68.3%	18.2%
24	Sebastien Emenalo	G	Fr	6'6"	31-0	14.5	3.2	3.3	0.4	0.5	45.9%	30.9%	1.8	47.6%	16.0%
2	Troy Cicero Jr.	G	Jr	6'2"	32-0	13.9	5.8	2.2	0.7	0.5	52.5%	38.0%	3.8	77.3%	24.6%
1	Carter Berg-McLean	G	Fr	6'4"	30-0	13.9	3.3	2.5	1.6	0.7	41.9%	19.2%	0.9	76.2%	18.4%
7	Jonas Sirtautas	F	Jr	6'10"	19-12	19.3	6.5	3.6	0.6	0.9	63.3%	14.3%	0.7	47.9%	18.7%
17	Everett Barnes	F	Fr	6'9"	25-5	8.5	1.5	1.6	0.3	0.3	51.5%	40.0%	0.2	20.0%	13.6%
14	Garrett Brennan	G	Sr	6'4"	14-1	4.1	0.9	1.2	0.4	0.1	36.7%	12.5%	0.6	28.6%	18.8%
13	Ben Menker	G	So	6'5"	12-0	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	26.8%
5	Peter Sposito	G	Sr	6'2"	11-1	1.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.1	21.4%	25.0%	0.4	0.0%	30.1%
8	Goap Kodi	F	So	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Loyola MD

Against the spread

Season

16-14

Home

7-5

Road

8-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-13

Home

6-6

Road

11-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.9

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	ColgateAdjEM #223	A	L 77–90	+5.5	L−7.5	154.0	O167	119.4	139.5	64.5
Feb 28	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	A	W 76–62	+1.0	W+15.0	151.0	U138	120.0	97.9	63.3
Feb 25	NavyAdjEM #104	H	L 51–78	+6.5	L−20.5	146.5	U129	83.8	128.1	60.9
Feb 21	ColgateAdjEM #223	A	L 98–101 OT	+8.5	W+5.5	149.5	O199	112.3	115.7	87.3
Feb 18	ArmyAdjEM #336	H	L 77–87	−4.5	L−14.5	150.0	O164	111.6	126.1	69.0
Feb 15	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	H	W 83–73	−4.5	W+5.5	145.5	O156	127.5	112.2	65.1
Feb 11	LafayetteAdjEM #319	A	W 68–54	+3.0	W+17.0	148.5	U122	103.9	82.5	65.5
Feb 7	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 69–78	+5.0	L−4.0	146.0	O147	99.1	112.0	69.6
Feb 4	LehighAdjEM #273	H	W 89–84 2OT	−2.5	W+2.5	149.5	O173	110.9	104.7	80.3
Jan 31	NavyAdjEM #104	A	L 71–87	+10.0	L−6.0	143.5	O158	108.8	133.3	65.3

Mount St Marys

Against the spread

Season

17-13-1

Home

7-5

Road

10-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +3.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

10-21

Home

4-8

Road

6-12

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −6.7

Under 4 straightOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	SienaAdjEM #134	N	L 58–63	+3.0	L−2.0	135.0	U121	96.1	104.4	60.3
Mar 1	FairfieldAdjEM #230	A	W 69–47	+3.5	W+25.5	146.5	U116	103.2	70.3	66.8
Feb 27	Sacred HeartAdjEM #278	A	L 69–77	+2.5	L−5.5	150.5	U146	104.7	116.9	65.9
Feb 22	CanisiusAdjEM #344	H	W 68–47	−7.5	W+13.5	137.5	U115	108.5	75.0	62.6
Feb 20	NiagaraAdjEM #337	H	W 76–63	−7.5	W+5.5	131.0	O139	108.6	90.1	69.9
Feb 13	RiderAdjEM #356	A	W 65–55	−5.0	W+5.0	138.5	U120	100.1	84.7	64.9
Feb 7	IonaAdjEM #227	A	W 83–76	+4.0	W+11.0	141.0	O159	131.1	120.0	63.3
Feb 5	MerrimackAdjEM #158	H	L 70–87	+2.0	L−15.0	135.0	O157	98.8	122.8	70.8
Feb 1	ManhattanAdjEM #328	H	W 72–65	−6.5	W+0.5	146.5	U137	110.1	99.4	65.4
Jan 30	Saint Peter'sAdjEM #225	A	L 58–66	+6.0	L−2.0	139.5	U124	94.3	107.3	61.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Loyola MDMount St Marys

Efficiency

105.6

102.5

114.0

107.8

68.8

68.5

—

Shooting

50.4%

50.6%

51.9%

51.8%

32.6%

32.7%

71.5%

67.4%

29.9%

33.3%

Ball control & glass

15.5%

22.4%

15.3%

27.6%

32.3%

29.0%

29.1%

8.7%

12.8%

8.3%

8.5%

Style

47.2%

42.6%

40.4%

44.8%

10.0%

12.0%

48.8%

55.2%

37.7%

31.3%

Roster

2.26

3.33

6'5.4"

6'4.2"

90.3%

32.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Loyola MD

Returning minutes: 90.3%Returning production: 86.5%

Lost

Jacob Theodosiou 19.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Duke

Added

Goap Kodi no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Mount St Marys

Returning minutes: 32.5%Returning production: 25.0%

Lost

Xavier Lipscomb 31.7 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Arlandus Keyes 27.7 mpg, 11.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Luke McEldon 24.0 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Trey Deveaux 23.4 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Justin Amadi 19.8 mpg, 6.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Patrick Haigh 6.5 mpg, 2.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Redd Thompson Jr. from Longwood · 22.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg last season
Wilguens Jr. Exacte from Drake · 10.3 mpg, 3.9 ppg last season
Cade Orness from Gonzaga · 0.6 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
Liam Joyce no D1 minutes last season
Crue Gard no D1 minutes last season
Miquel Llompart no D1 minutes last season

Returns 33% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 13	2025-26	Mount St Marys 81 – 73 Loyola MD

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.