CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceEagleBank Arena, Fairfax, VA
Coppin St
Efficiency #364
2025-26: 7-24 · 5-9 conf
@
George Mason
Efficiency #83
2025-26: 23-10 · 11-8 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
61.1
win 5%
Projected
80.7
win 95%
No line posted yet.
Model: GMU −19.6 · total 141.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: George Mason 65.9, Coppin St 69.1 → 66.6 possessions
−3.7
George Mason offense vs Coppin St defense
+6.5
Coppin St offense vs George Mason defense
−9.2
Projected total
141.8
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
George Mason offense vs Coppin St defense
+6.5
Coppin St offense vs George Mason defense
+9.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
George Mason by 19.6
19.6
Coppin St side ◂▸ George Mason side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +19.5 against +19.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help George Mason.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Coppin St is the faster team (69.0, #144 of 365) and George Mason the slower (64.7, #334). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.8
model
Projected team totals
61.1 / 80.7
Coppin St / George Mason
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.1#119
Coppin St
65.9#345
George Mason

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageCoppin St
Where Coppin St struggles: shooting
Coppin St shoots an effective 45.9% (#350); George Mason allows 49.5% (#83). Expect about 47.2%, 4.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.7 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageGeorge Mason
Where George Mason scores: shooting
George Mason shoots an effective 52.7% (#113); Coppin St allows 55.4% (#339). Expect about 54.2%, 3.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.2 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversCoppin St
Coppin St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.1% is worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions against Coppin St's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Coppin St, Coppin St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Coppin St at about 37.9% of its shots from three, George Mason about 38.5%.
GlassGeorge Mason
George Mason owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.2% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for George Mason's offense.
ClashGeorge Mason
Style clash: 3-point volume
George Mason rarely shoots threes (35.2% of its shots); Coppin St lets opponents take 43.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Coppin St has the ball
OffenseGeorge Mason allowsvs D1 avg
45.9% #350
49.5% #83
-5.7 pt/100
22.3% #363
15.4% #256
-2.8 pt/100
30.4% #183
28.3% #79
-0.6 pt/100
38.5% #90
28.9% #43
-0.2 pt/100
67.2% #342
—
-0.5 pt/100
Coppin St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.9 pts/100
George Mason has the ball
OffenseCoppin St allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #113
55.4% #339
+4.2 pt/100
15.8% #122
17.5% #118
+0.1 pt/100
31.3% #149
34.8% #333
+1.7 pt/100
41.1% #44
42.9% #339
+1.0 pt/100
72.5% #188
—
+0.0 pt/100
George Mason net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Coppin Stoffense vsGeorge Masondefense
Share of shots by zone
Coppin St shoots
George Mason allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.4%#33660.1%#23458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)28.1%#35738.8%#15739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)29.7%#35630.9%#838.0%
Three30.7%#32632.6%#9133.7%
George Masonoffense vsCoppin Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
George Mason shoots
Coppin St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.8%#4060.1%#23158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.5%#3446.5%#32739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.0%#31335.5%#9138.0%
Three33.3%#21438.3%#36033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Coppin St
−5.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#353 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#183
Def reb %
65.2%
#333
Turnover %
22.3%
#363
Forced TO %
17.5%
#118
FT rate
38.5%
#90
FT allowed
42.9%
#339
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−3.8
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed−2.0
George Mason
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#36 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#149
Def reb %
71.7%
#79
Turnover %
15.8%
#122
Forced TO %
15.4%
#256
FT rate
41.1%
#44
FT allowed
28.9%
#43
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed+1.6

George Mason has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#36 of 365) to Coppin St’s −5.6 (#353).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Coppin St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Coppin St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Hassan PerkinsGSr6'0"31-1822.66.61.52.91.549.4%37.2%2.572.9%19.5%
7Khali HortonFJr6'8"31-2419.87.42.10.90.946.5%36.2%4.172.9%24.2%
4Hussain WilliamsGJr6'5"31-719.87.32.40.81.042.8%26.3%4.471.7%25.9%
11Torrin AndrewsGSr6'4"31-1219.15.31.51.61.849.6%31.7%2.678.0%20.4%
14Jamari PiercyGJr6'5"31-1118.36.82.30.81.547.9%17.4%1.547.4%27.0%
6Demariontay HallFSr6'7"22-2122.010.65.40.52.152.4%0.0%0.155.0%31.2%
33Tyler KoenigFJr6'9"28-2116.95.33.80.41.049.1%0.0%0.073.6%20.1%
24Taj ThweattFSr6'7"23-317.86.04.30.41.347.4%38.3%2.080.6%22.7%
0Baasil SaundersGJr6'4"26-1615.53.21.90.71.041.8%18.8%0.663.2%17.0%
21Nelson LamizanaFFr6'9"17-519.26.63.00.91.947.7%26.1%1.487.5%23.9%
10Camaren SparrowGJr6'4"16-319.25.73.81.51.842.0%35.7%0.965.1%23.5%
23Daveyon LydnerGFr6'4"23-312.72.30.91.60.724.6%17.6%0.768.8%18.2%
2Favour AireCSr6'11"21-19.12.82.00.41.051.0%41.7%0.683.3%22.6%
12Chris MorganFSr6'9"13-1013.54.53.00.61.038.5%0.0%0.240.0%28.9%
3Josiah BrownGSo6'5"11-06.51.80.90.30.263.6%0.0%0.1100.0%12.0%
22Elijah TaylorFJr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Macahi NelsonGSr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Coppin StGeorge Mason
Efficiency
97.4
110.8
115.9
105.7
69.1
65.9
—
—
Shooting
45.9%
52.7%
45.8%
54.3%
30.7%
33.3%
67.2%
72.5%
38.5%
41.1%
Ball control & glass
22.3%
15.8%
17.5%
15.4%
30.4%
31.3%
34.8%
28.3%
13.0%
9.6%
12.0%
9.8%
Style
35.2%
35.2%
43.2%
46.4%
13.9%
12.1%
51.5%
49.9%
49.2%
33.9%
Roster
3.20
3.24
6'5.6"
6'6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Coppin St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Coppin St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

George Mason
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.