CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSchollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, TX

Southern

Efficiency #286

2025-26: 17-17 · 13-8 conf

TCU

Efficiency #51

2025-26: 23-12 · 12-8 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

67.4

win 10%

Projected

82.6

win 90%

No line posted yet.

Model: TCU −15.2 · total 150.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: TCU 68.4, Southern 70.0 → 70.1 possessions

+3.8

TCU offense vs Southern defense

+4.5

Southern offense vs TCU defense

−6.6

Projected total

150.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

TCU offense vs Southern defense

+4.5

Southern offense vs TCU defense

+6.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

TCU by 15.2

15.2

Southern side ◂▸ TCU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.9 against a projected 150.0, and the margin steps add to +15.1 against +15.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help TCU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Southern is the faster team (71.5, #31 of 365) and TCU the slower (69.4, #117). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.0

model

Projected team totals

67.4 / 82.6

Southern / TCU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.0#52

Southern

68.4#173

TCU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

TCU averages 69.4 possessions per 40, Southern 71.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseTCU

TCU's shot-blocking

TCU ranks #35 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.8% of Southern's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageSouthern

Where Southern struggles: ball control

Southern turns it over on 16.5% of possessions (#170); TCU forces turnovers on 19.6% of opponent possessions (#32). Expect about 18.4%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Southern's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Southern at about 32.8% of its shots from three, TCU about 36.1%.

AdvantageTCU

Where TCU scores: the offensive glass

TCU rebounds 34.0% of its own misses (#67); Southern lets opponents grab 31.3% of their own misses (#217). Expect about 33.3%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseSouthern

Southern's ball-hawking

Southern ranks #36 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.5% of TCU's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Southern has the ball

OffenseTCU allowsvs D1 avg

49.1% #287

51.2% #172

-1.8 pt/100

16.5% #170

19.6% #32

-2.0 pt/100

31.4% #144

29.1% #112

+0.0 pt/100

39.8% #61

30.5% #72

-0.0 pt/100

69.5% #284

—

-0.3 pt/100

Southern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.1 pts/100

TCU has the ball

OffenseSouthern allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #221

53.2% #274

+0.7 pt/100

15.3% #87

18.6% #66

-0.4 pt/100

34.0% #67

31.3% #217

+1.8 pt/100

37.5% #112

42.9% #338

+0.7 pt/100

70.4% #257

—

-0.2 pt/100

TCU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Southernoffense vsTCUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Southern shoots

41.1

6.8

19.9

32.2

TCU allows

38.4

6.4

16.8

38.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.5%#255	60.3%#242	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.8%#291	35.0%#58	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	31.5%#343	39.2%#206	38.0%
Three	34.8%#129	33.5%#158	33.7%

TCUoffense vsSoutherndefense

Share of shots by zone

TCU shoots

38.4

8.8

16.1

36.7

Southern allows

38.3

7.1

18.3

36.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#204	59.7%#215	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.8%#68	38.6%#149	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.1%#286	35.9%#106	38.0%
Three	33.2%#220	36.7%#339	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Southern

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#143 of 365

Off reb %

31.4%

#144

Def reb %

68.7%

#217

Turnover %

16.5%

#170

Forced TO %

18.6%

#66

FT rate

39.8%

#61

FT allowed

42.9%

#338

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+0.2

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn+1.2

Foul shots allowed−2.0

TCU

+6.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#10 of 365

Off reb %

34.0%

#67

Def reb %

70.9%

#112

Turnover %

15.3%

#87

Forced TO %

19.6%

#32

FT rate

37.5%

#112

FT allowed

30.5%

#72

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers+2.0

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed+1.2

TCU has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.5 (#10 of 365) to Southern’s +0.9 (#143).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Southern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Michael Jacobs	G	Sr	6'2"	32-25	32.1	17.3	3.6	5.1	2.6	44.9%	33.9%	3.9	66.2%	34.7%
1	DaMariee Jones	F	Sr	6'5"	30-22	25.4	9.9	6.5	1.4	0.9	58.9%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	19.8%
3	Cam Amboree	G	Sr	6'3"	28-18	27.0	9.6	2.5	3.6	2.1	45.5%	37.5%	4.3	80.3%	23.6%
23	Terrance Dixon Jr.	F	Sr	6'8"	34-30	20.5	9.0	4.3	0.5	0.9	69.3%	—	0.0	62.3%	20.3%
14	Fazl Oshodi	G	So	6'3"	34-18	20.3	8.9	1.4	0.7	0.5	52.9%	34.9%	5.1	93.5%	23.2%
4	Brandon Hardy	G	Jr	6'3"	33-10	19.0	3.8	2.2	0.7	0.8	53.4%	35.8%	1.6	75.0%	12.4%
12	AJ Barnes	F	Sr	6'6"	28-20	22.0	8.3	4.8	1.6	0.8	45.7%	36.5%	2.6	74.6%	23.6%
8	Malek Abdelgowad	F	Sr	6'10"	28-5	17.1	10.6	6.2	0.5	1.5	62.3%	50.0%	0.4	72.8%	30.9%
2	Joe Manning	G	Sr	6'2"	30-6	11.6	3.1	0.7	1.6	0.9	42.4%	32.7%	1.7	87.0%	19.8%
35	Puoch Dobuol	F	Sr	6'8"	19-8	8.5	1.6	1.4	0.4	0.4	31.7%	33.3%	0.3	100.0%	17.6%
11	Keith Lamar	F	Sr	6'6"	7-2	15.7	2.3	1.7	0.7	0.7	29.6%	19.0%	3.0	—	15.6%
13	Lionel Bell	F	Fr	6'9"	18-1	5.8	1.4	1.7	0.2	0.4	52.4%	—	0.0	40.0%	17.1%
0	Rondae Hill	G	So	6'0"	6-4	14.7	7.2	1.2	1.8	1.2	57.1%	43.5%	3.8	50.0%	25.4%
5	Jayce Depron	G	So	6'3"	5-0	7.6	3.6	1.2	0.2	0.2	52.9%	30.8%	2.6	—	22.5%
30	D'Mari Wiltz	G	Sr	—	3-0	7.3	0.0	0.7	0.3	1.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	12.9%
9	Andre Nunley	G	Sr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Femi Olaniyan	F	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Trey Shephard	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

TCU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Brock Harding	G	Jr	6'0"	35-35	31.8	8.0	2.9	5.6	1.9	43.1%	28.4%	3.3	64.6%	19.4%
1	Jayden Pierre	G	Sr	6'0"	35-35	30.4	10.1	2.1	2.8	1.3	50.2%	35.1%	4.2	81.8%	20.7%
15	David Punch	F	So	6'7"	34-34	29.7	14.1	6.8	2.0	1.7	51.8%	23.9%	1.4	65.3%	28.3%
5	Micah Robinson	F	So	6'6"	35-13	26.9	10.9	4.7	1.7	1.3	46.9%	33.3%	3.9	75.9%	25.0%
24	Xavier Edmonds	F	Jr	6'8"	35-34	22.9	12.7	6.5	1.2	1.9	61.4%	43.6%	1.6	64.4%	30.3%
55	Tanner Toolson	G	Jr	6'5"	35-1	20.9	7.7	3.2	0.9	0.5	43.5%	29.1%	2.9	72.6%	23.1%
00	Jace Posey	G	So	6'5"	26-0	11.8	4.8	2.4	0.2	0.7	46.0%	15.4%	0.5	68.1%	26.2%
23	Vianney Salatchoum	C	Sr	6'10"	23-0	5.3	1.1	1.0	0.1	0.3	52.2%	—	0.0	66.7%	15.0%
7	Kayden Edwards	G	Fr	6'2"	13-0	6.8	3.5	0.7	0.6	0.4	57.9%	43.5%	1.8	25.0%	28.6%
8	RJ Jones	G	So	6'2"	8-0	7.1	2.9	0.5	0.9	0.4	55.0%	35.3%	2.1	50.0%	23.7%
6	Ashton Simmons	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	3.8	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.6	35.7%	25.0%	0.8	—	29.2%
32	Malick Diallo	C	So	6'9"	1-1	7.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	2.0	—	—	0.0	—	14.8%
33	Trey Stuart	G	Sr	6'2"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	22.6%
22	Adam Stewart	C	So	6'11"	4-0	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	13.8%
30	Drew McElroy	G	Jr	6'2"	3-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	18.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Southern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Michael Jacobs	G	Sr	6'2"	32-25	32.1	17.3	3.6	5.1	2.6	44.9%	33.9%	3.9	66.2%	34.7%
1	DaMariee Jones	F	Sr	6'5"	30-22	25.4	9.9	6.5	1.4	0.9	58.9%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	19.8%
3	Cam Amboree	G	Sr	6'3"	28-18	27.0	9.6	2.5	3.6	2.1	45.5%	37.5%	4.3	80.3%	23.6%
23	Terrance Dixon Jr.	F	Sr	6'8"	34-30	20.5	9.0	4.3	0.5	0.9	69.3%	—	0.0	62.3%	20.3%
14	Fazl Oshodi	G	So	6'3"	34-18	20.3	8.9	1.4	0.7	0.5	52.9%	34.9%	5.1	93.5%	23.2%
4	Brandon Hardy	G	Jr	6'3"	33-10	19.0	3.8	2.2	0.7	0.8	53.4%	35.8%	1.6	75.0%	12.4%
12	AJ Barnes	F	Sr	6'6"	28-20	22.0	8.3	4.8	1.6	0.8	45.7%	36.5%	2.6	74.6%	23.6%
8	Malek Abdelgowad	F	Sr	6'10"	28-5	17.1	10.6	6.2	0.5	1.5	62.3%	50.0%	0.4	72.8%	30.9%
2	Joe Manning	G	Sr	6'2"	30-6	11.6	3.1	0.7	1.6	0.9	42.4%	32.7%	1.7	87.0%	19.8%
35	Puoch Dobuol	F	Sr	6'8"	19-8	8.5	1.6	1.4	0.4	0.4	31.7%	33.3%	0.3	100.0%	17.6%
11	Keith Lamar	F	Sr	6'6"	7-2	15.7	2.3	1.7	0.7	0.7	29.6%	19.0%	3.0	—	15.6%
13	Lionel Bell	F	Fr	6'9"	18-1	5.8	1.4	1.7	0.2	0.4	52.4%	—	0.0	40.0%	17.1%
0	Rondae Hill	G	So	6'0"	6-4	14.7	7.2	1.2	1.8	1.2	57.1%	43.5%	3.8	50.0%	25.4%
5	Jayce Depron	G	So	6'3"	5-0	7.6	3.6	1.2	0.2	0.2	52.9%	30.8%	2.6	—	22.5%
30	D'Mari Wiltz	G	Sr	—	3-0	7.3	0.0	0.7	0.3	1.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	12.9%
9	Andre Nunley	G	Sr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Femi Olaniyan	F	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Trey Shephard	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Southern

Against the spread

Season

13-18

Home

3-6

Road

9-10

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 10 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

20-11

Home

7-2

Road

11-8

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +5.7

Under in the last gameOver in 7 of 10 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	N	L 66–72	−3.5	L−9.5	145.0	U138	100.2	109.3	65.9
Mar 13	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	N	W 73–70	−2.0	W+1.0	140.5	O143	101.9	97.7	71.6
Mar 12	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	N	W 84–81	−5.0	L−2.0	150.5	O165	128.4	123.9	65.4
Mar 5	Alabama A&MAdjEM #312	A	W 88–85	−1.0	W+2.0	145.0	O173	121.1	117.0	72.7
Mar 3	Alabama StAdjEM #324	A	W 71–64	−1.0	W+6.0	153.0	U135	100.0	90.2	71.0
Feb 28	BethuneAdjEM #260	H	L 79–82	−2.0	L−5.0	153.0	O161	106.6	110.6	74.1
Feb 26	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	H	L 71–82	−9.0	L−20.0	146.5	O153	100.9	116.6	70.3
Feb 21	GramblingAdjEM #290	H	W 87–73	−5.5	W+8.5	143.0	O160	116.6	97.8	74.6
Feb 16	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	A	L 73–74	−5.0	L−6.0	152.0	U147	100.2	101.6	72.8
Feb 14	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	A	W 87–82	−4.0	W+1.0	159.0	O169	113.1	106.6	76.9

TCU

Against the spread

Season

19-14-2

Home

9-10

Road

7-3

Last 10

6-2-2

avg cover +1.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

15-20

Home

8-11

Road

4-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −1.9

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	L 58–81	+12.0	L−11.0	140.5	U139	83.6	116.8	69.3
Mar 19	#8Ohio StateAdjEM #31	N	W 66–64	+2.0	W+4.0	146.0	U130	105.7	102.5	62.4
Mar 12	#14KansasAdjEM #25	N	L 73–78	+5.0	P0.0	146.5	O151	97.9	104.6	74.6
Mar 11	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	N	W 95–88	−7.0	P0.0	158.0	O183	137.8	127.6	69.0
Mar 7	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	H	W 73–63	−2.5	W+7.5	139.5	U136	115.1	99.3	63.4
Mar 3	#10Texas TechAdjEM #21	A	W 73–65	+8.0	W+16.0	148.5	U138	114.1	101.6	64.0
Feb 28	Kansas StAdjEM #128	A	W 77–68	−3.0	W+6.0	159.5	U145	106.8	94.3	72.1
Feb 24	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 90–78	−6.5	W+5.5	149.0	O168	120.1	104.1	75.0
Feb 21	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	H	W 60–54	−4.5	W+1.5	133.5	U114	99.6	89.6	60.3
Feb 17	UCFAdjEM #70	A	L 71–82	−1.0	L−12.0	155.0	U153	99.8	115.2	71.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SouthernTCU

Efficiency

105.6

111.5

112.0

101.9

70.0

68.4

—

Shooting

49.1%

50.4%

47.7%

50.8%

34.8%

33.2%

69.5%

70.4%

39.8%

37.5%

Ball control & glass

16.5%

15.3%

18.6%

19.6%

31.4%

34.0%

31.3%

29.1%

8.8%

8.7%

10.0%

9.8%

Style

32.1%

36.8%

44.5%

45.4%

16.3%

17.2%

52.6%

57.3%

40.6%

30.5%

Roster

3.61

2.79

6'4.6"

6'4.1"

94.9%

88.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Southern

Returning minutes: 94.9%Returning production: 97.0%

Lost

Ashton Magee 10.3 mpg, 2.7 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St

Added

Femi Olaniyan no D1 minutes last season
Andre Nunley no D1 minutes last season
Trey Shephard no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 95% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

TCU

Returning minutes: 88.6%Returning production: 90.1%

Lost

Liutauras Lelevicius 23.0 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to Clemson

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 89% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.