CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHope Coliseum, Morgantown, WV

Stetson

Efficiency #322

2025-26: 12-21 · 8-12 conf

West Virginia

Efficiency #58

2025-26: 21-14 · 9-10 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

61.6

win 10%

Projected

76.7

win 90%

No line posted yet.

Model: WVU −15.1 · total 138.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: West Virginia 65.2, Stetson 67.9 → 64.8 possessions

−7.6

West Virginia offense vs Stetson defense

+4.6

Stetson offense vs West Virginia defense

−6.8

Projected total

138.3

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

West Virginia offense vs Stetson defense

+4.6

Stetson offense vs West Virginia defense

+6.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

West Virginia by 15.1

15.1

Stetson side ◂▸ West Virginia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 138.4 against a projected 138.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help West Virginia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Stetson is the faster team (67.9, #208 of 365) and West Virginia the slower (64.1, #353). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

64.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

138.3

model

Projected team totals

61.6 / 76.7

Stetson / West Virginia

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.9#216

Stetson

65.2#361

West Virginia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

West Virginia averages 64.1 possessions per 40, Stetson 67.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageWest Virginia

Where West Virginia scores: shooting

West Virginia shoots an effective 51.6% (#166); Stetson allows 55.2% (#338). Expect about 53.5%, 2.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageStetson

Where Stetson struggles: the offensive glass

Stetson rebounds 26.6% of its own misses (#308); West Virginia lets opponents grab 28.6% of their own misses (#86). Expect about 26.9%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversStetson

Stetson turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Stetson's offense.

Stetson has the ball

OffenseWest Virginia allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #96

48.5% #50

-0.5 pt/100

18.1% #277

17.8% #108

-1.7 pt/100

26.6% #308

28.6% #86

-2.1 pt/100

32.4% #250

29.3% #47

-0.6 pt/100

69.2% #292

—

-0.3 pt/100

Stetson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.2 pts/100

West Virginia has the ball

OffenseStetson allowsvs D1 avg

51.6% #166

55.2% #338

+3.1 pt/100

16.8% #188

15.1% #271

+1.2 pt/100

30.5% #178

31.8% #250

+0.5 pt/100

35.1% #173

30.4% #71

-0.3 pt/100

68.3% #319

—

-0.4 pt/100

West Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Stetsonoffense vsWest Virginiadefense

Share of shots by zone

Stetson shoots

35.0

5.5

15.5

44.0

West Virginia allows

37.1

4.8

19.5

38.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#126	55.2%#66	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	36.8%#106	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.4%#74	32.2%#18	38.0%
Three	36.0%#59	34.3%#201	33.7%

West Virginiaoffense vsStetsondefense

Share of shots by zone

West Virginia shoots

38.5

4.6

13.3

43.6

Stetson allows

42.3

5.8

11.6

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#150	63.8%#338	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.1%#348	35.7%#83	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.6%#89	42.3%#312	38.0%
Three	33.1%#227	34.6%#223	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Stetson

−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#304 of 365

Off reb %

26.6%

#308

Def reb %

68.2%

#250

Turnover %

18.1%

#277

Forced TO %

15.1%

#271

FT rate

32.4%

#250

FT allowed

30.4%

#71

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+1.2

West Virginia

+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#54 of 365

Off reb %

30.5%

#178

Def reb %

71.4%

#86

Turnover %

16.8%

#188

Forced TO %

17.8%

#108

FT rate

35.1%

#173

FT allowed

29.3%

#47

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+1.5

West Virginia has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.9 (#54 of 365) to Stetson’s −3.0 (#304).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Stetson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ethan Copeland	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	32.1	15.0	3.7	2.1	1.3	58.4%	42.9%	7.7	79.4%	25.2%
32	Jake Johnson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-20	28.4	9.2	3.1	1.4	1.0	50.2%	34.0%	5.0	78.2%	19.7%
3	Calvin Sirmans III	G	Jr	5'8"	32-27	23.5	6.1	1.8	4.6	1.8	41.3%	30.4%	2.2	76.5%	19.8%
9	Collin Kuhl	F	Jr	6'8"	32-29	23.5	13.1	6.3	0.7	1.5	66.2%	37.5%	0.3	61.8%	28.5%
21	Finley Sheridan	F	Jr	6'10"	29-20	21.6	7.0	4.1	1.3	1.5	63.6%	42.4%	2.0	63.0%	19.2%
13	Alex Doyle	F	Jr	6'9"	33-7	16.4	4.9	2.1	0.9	1.0	58.0%	40.2%	3.2	57.1%	18.8%
0	Jamie Phillips Jr.	G	So	6'5"	17-17	30.6	16.0	5.6	2.8	2.0	51.9%	34.7%	4.4	69.0%	30.7%
12	Matar Diop	F	Jr	6'10"	31-9	12.8	2.8	2.8	0.2	0.6	49.3%	20.0%	0.2	42.9%	16.3%
4	Daniel Macgregor	G	So	6'0"	20-3	18.7	4.8	1.9	3.8	2.0	40.9%	33.3%	1.1	82.1%	21.7%
51	Sean Morgan	G	Fr	6'2"	16-0	14.3	3.5	1.3	0.8	0.9	35.2%	18.4%	2.4	61.1%	21.6%
15	J.R. Leonard	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	10.0	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.2	41.1%	24.3%	1.7	44.4%	26.5%
18	Janusz Ratowski	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.3	0.6	64.5%	33.3%	0.1	63.6%	17.5%
2	Isaac Jones	G	So	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	66.7%	25.7%
8	Miller McGowan	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.9%
20	Ben Gladieux	G	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	31.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

West Virginia2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Honor Huff	G	Sr	5'10"	35-35	35.9	16.5	2.3	2.1	1.7	50.0%	35.4%	9.7	86.9%	28.2%
0	Brenen Lorient	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	29.4	11.9	5.2	1.9	1.9	58.0%	35.8%	2.0	70.4%	25.1%
1	Jasper Floyd	G	Sr	6'3"	35-35	28.3	7.0	3.8	3.2	1.9	52.9%	37.7%	1.7	70.0%	17.9%
55	Harlan Obioha	C	Sr	7'0"	35-35	19.9	5.1	4.6	0.8	0.9	52.9%	25.0%	0.1	56.7%	17.3%
13	Chance Moore	G	Sr	6'6"	29-1	22.3	10.6	5.8	0.8	1.3	55.2%	28.1%	1.1	56.3%	29.9%
5	DJ Thomas	F	Fr	6'7"	35-0	16.8	6.6	2.1	0.6	0.7	55.1%	26.9%	2.2	62.5%	24.5%
2	Amir Jenkins	G	Fr	6'2"	32-0	16.0	3.4	2.1	2.0	0.7	37.3%	28.6%	0.9	53.8%	19.2%
23	Morris Ugusuk	G	Jr	6'4"	24-0	11.3	1.4	1.5	0.2	0.1	31.8%	17.1%	1.5	55.6%	11.3%
4	Jayden Forsythe	G	Fr	6'5"	5-0	4.0	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	42.9%	28.6%	1.4	—	22.2%
21	Niyol Hauet	G	Fr	6'4"	6-0	1.8	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	11.6%
8	Abraham Oyeadier	C	Fr	6'9"	1-0	2.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	0.0%	29.3%
7	Evans Barning Jr.	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	MJ Feenane	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Stetson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ethan Copeland	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	32.1	15.0	3.7	2.1	1.3	58.4%	42.9%	7.7	79.4%	25.2%
32	Jake Johnson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-20	28.4	9.2	3.1	1.4	1.0	50.2%	34.0%	5.0	78.2%	19.7%
3	Calvin Sirmans III	G	Jr	5'8"	32-27	23.5	6.1	1.8	4.6	1.8	41.3%	30.4%	2.2	76.5%	19.8%
9	Collin Kuhl	F	Jr	6'8"	32-29	23.5	13.1	6.3	0.7	1.5	66.2%	37.5%	0.3	61.8%	28.5%
21	Finley Sheridan	F	Jr	6'10"	29-20	21.6	7.0	4.1	1.3	1.5	63.6%	42.4%	2.0	63.0%	19.2%
13	Alex Doyle	F	Jr	6'9"	33-7	16.4	4.9	2.1	0.9	1.0	58.0%	40.2%	3.2	57.1%	18.8%
0	Jamie Phillips Jr.	G	So	6'5"	17-17	30.6	16.0	5.6	2.8	2.0	51.9%	34.7%	4.4	69.0%	30.7%
12	Matar Diop	F	Jr	6'10"	31-9	12.8	2.8	2.8	0.2	0.6	49.3%	20.0%	0.2	42.9%	16.3%
4	Daniel Macgregor	G	So	6'0"	20-3	18.7	4.8	1.9	3.8	2.0	40.9%	33.3%	1.1	82.1%	21.7%
51	Sean Morgan	G	Fr	6'2"	16-0	14.3	3.5	1.3	0.8	0.9	35.2%	18.4%	2.4	61.1%	21.6%
15	J.R. Leonard	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	10.0	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.2	41.1%	24.3%	1.7	44.4%	26.5%
18	Janusz Ratowski	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.3	0.6	64.5%	33.3%	0.1	63.6%	17.5%
2	Isaac Jones	G	So	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	66.7%	25.7%
8	Miller McGowan	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.9%
20	Ben Gladieux	G	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	31.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Stetson

Against the spread

Season

18-13

Home

8-4

Road

8-8

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +4.7

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 9 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-16-1

Home

5-7

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +6.1

Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 9 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	N	L 60–69	+12.5	W+3.5	153.0	U129	95.4	109.7	62.9
Mar 4	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	N	W 92–76	+6.0	W+22.0	155.0	O168	140.3	115.9	65.6
Feb 28	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 78–63	+5.5	W+20.5	151.5	U141	115.3	93.2	67.6
Feb 26	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	A	L 85–89	+7.0	W+3.0	140.0	O174	126.3	132.3	67.3
Feb 21	North FloridaAdjEM #338	H	W 76–71	−1.5	W+3.5	160.5	U147	118.9	111.1	63.9
Feb 19	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	H	L 76–88	+10.0	L−2.0	149.0	O164	114.9	133.0	66.2
Feb 14	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 76–78	+10.5	W+8.5	148.5	O154	111.8	114.8	68.0
Feb 11	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	H	W 67–62	+1.5	W+6.5	138.5	U129	107.0	99.0	62.6
Feb 7	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	A	L 88–100	+10.0	L−2.0	151.5	O188	125.0	142.0	70.4
Feb 5	BellarmineAdjEM #281	A	L 71–92	+4.5	L−16.5	148.5	O163	115.5	149.6	61.5

West Virginia

Against the spread

Season

18-17

Home

10-8

Road

3-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.1

Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-22

Home

5-13

Road

2-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.9

Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 5	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	W 89–82 OT	+3.0	W+10.0	138.5	O171	123.9	114.2	71.8
Apr 4	CreightonAdjEM #92	N	W 87–70	−1.5	W+15.5	137.0	O157	128.7	103.6	67.6
Apr 2	StanfordAdjEM #77	N	W 82–77 OT	−2.0	W+3.0	135.5	O159	111.7	104.9	73.4
Mar 11	BYUAdjEM #26	N	L 48–68	+3.5	L−16.5	141.0	U116	76.6	108.5	62.6
Mar 6	UCFAdjEM #70	H	W 77–62	−4.5	W+10.5	141.5	U139	115.4	92.9	66.7
Mar 3	Kansas StAdjEM #128	A	L 63–65	−4.0	L−6.0	141.5	U128	94.4	97.4	66.7
Feb 28	#19BYUAdjEM #26	H	W 79–71	+2.0	W+10.0	141.0	O150	124.9	112.3	63.2
Feb 24	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	A	L 84–91 OT	−1.0	L−8.0	143.5	O175	115.4	125.1	72.8
Feb 21	TCUAdjEM #51	A	L 54–60	+4.5	L−1.5	133.5	U114	89.6	99.6	60.3
Feb 18	UtahAdjEM #177	H	L 56–61	−10.5	L−15.5	134.0	U117	91.7	99.9	61.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

StetsonWest Virginia

Efficiency

105.1

109.6

114.4

101.3

67.9

65.2

—

Shooting

53.1%

51.6%

52.5%

53.1%

36.0%

33.1%

69.2%

68.3%

32.4%

35.1%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

16.8%

15.1%

17.8%

26.6%

30.5%

31.8%

28.6%

11.5%

9.6%

7.7%

11.4%

Style

44.7%

43.0%

40.0%

43.1%

12.2%

10.4%

58.5%

51.9%

32.8%

30.1%

Roster

2.80

3.39

6'4.7"

—

84.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Stetson

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

West Virginia

Returning minutes: 84.2%Returning production: 85.1%

Lost

Treysen Eaglestaff 28.6 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jackson Fields 3.7 mpg, 1.1 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech

Added

MJ Feenane no D1 minutes last season
Evans Barning Jr. no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.