CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHilton Coliseum, Ames, IA

Southern Miss

Efficiency #218

2025-26: 19-16 · 12-10 conf

Iowa State

Efficiency #7

2025-26: 29-8 · 14-7 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

64.0

win 4%

Projected

83.8

win 96%

No line posted yet.

Model: ISU −19.8 · total 147.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Iowa State 68.2, Southern Miss 69.4 → 69.3 possessions

+2.2

Iowa State offense vs Southern Miss defense

+6.6

Southern Miss offense vs Iowa State defense

−9.2

Projected total

147.8

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Iowa State offense vs Southern Miss defense

+6.6

Southern Miss offense vs Iowa State defense

+9.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Iowa State by 19.8

19.8

Southern Miss side ◂▸ Iowa State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iowa State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Southern Miss is the faster team (69.6, #110 of 365) and Iowa State the slower (68.5, #173). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.8

model

Projected team totals

64.0 / 83.8

Southern Miss / Iowa State

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.4#89

Southern Miss

68.2#188

Iowa State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSouthern Miss

Where Southern Miss struggles: ball control

Southern Miss turns it over on 18.4% of possessions (#290); Iowa State forces turnovers on 22.6% of opponent possessions (#4). Expect about 21.4%, 4.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageIowa State

Where Iowa State scores: shooting

Iowa State shoots an effective 56.2% (#20); Southern Miss allows 51.4% (#177). Expect about 54.2%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseIowa State

Iowa State's ball-hawking

Iowa State ranks #9 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.1% of Southern Miss's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Iowa State, Southern Miss) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Southern Miss at about 32.9% of its shots from three, Iowa State about 38.9%.

GlassIowa State

Iowa State owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 32.9% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for Iowa State's offense.

ClashIowa State

Style clash: ball movement

Iowa State assists on 59.0% of its made baskets; Southern Miss breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.0% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 53.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

Southern Miss has the ball

OffenseIowa State allowsvs D1 avg

49.0% #289

49.8% #92

-2.9 pt/100

18.4% #290

22.6% #4

-5.7 pt/100

32.5% #103

28.6% #85

+0.4 pt/100

43.2% #18

28.1% #33

-0.0 pt/100

73.6% #146

—

+0.1 pt/100

Southern Miss net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.1 pts/100

Iowa State has the ball

OffenseSouthern Miss allowsvs D1 avg

56.2% #20

51.4% #177

+4.1 pt/100

14.9% #59

17.8% #109

+0.5 pt/100

35.2% #45

28.8% #97

+1.5 pt/100

34.5% #194

43.6% #343

+0.6 pt/100

67.5% #333

—

-0.4 pt/100

Iowa State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Southern Missoffense vsIowa Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

Southern Miss shoots

41.8

8.5

21.2

28.4

Iowa State allows

29.2

8.4

19.4

43.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.5%#108	63.4%#332	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.9%#289	39.4%#168	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.0%#187	34.6%#64	38.0%
Three	28.9%#355	32.0%#63	33.7%

Iowa Stateoffense vsSouthern Missdefense

Share of shots by zone

Iowa State shoots

38.2

8.6

14.9

38.3

Southern Miss allows

39.4

8.0

13.9

38.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.2%#20	57.8%#139	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.1%#220	37.7%#129	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.3%#210	35.6%#93	38.0%
Three	38.3%#12	34.5%#217	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Southern Miss

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#142 of 365

Off reb %

32.5%

#103

Def reb %

71.2%

#97

Turnover %

18.4%

#290

Forced TO %

17.8%

#109

FT rate

43.2%

#18

FT allowed

43.6%

#343

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security−1.1

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn+2.1

Foul shots allowed−2.2

Iowa State

+9.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#2 of 365

Off reb %

35.2%

#45

Def reb %

71.4%

#85

Turnover %

14.9%

#59

Forced TO %

22.6%

FT rate

34.5%

#194

FT allowed

28.1%

#33

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.5

Defensive rebounding+0.7

Ball security+1.3

Forcing turnovers+4.0

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed+1.8

Iowa State has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.2 (#2 of 365) to Southern Miss’s +0.9 (#142).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Southern Miss2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Southern Miss's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Tylik Weeks	F	Jr	6'7"	34-33	33.6	19.7	5.4	2.3	2.6	47.7%	22.2%	1.6	82.3%	34.7%
13	Dylan Brumfield	G	Sr	6'5"	35-35	31.2	8.4	4.1	3.1	1.9	44.3%	16.7%	0.7	73.3%	18.5%
15	Djahi Binet	F	Sr	6'7"	35-33	26.4	11.3	7.9	0.9	1.3	63.5%	33.3%	0.3	71.1%	21.6%
1	Curt Lewis	G	Sr	6'5"	35-19	23.2	5.4	2.1	0.8	0.6	52.1%	36.9%	4.0	59.1%	14.2%
0	Israel Hart	G	Sr	6'3"	34-16	21.6	7.7	1.9	1.4	1.3	42.9%	31.2%	4.1	83.6%	24.6%
10	Isaac Taveras	G	Jr	6'6"	22-20	25.9	15.3	6.8	2.3	3.3	52.5%	17.2%	1.3	58.8%	38.5%
3	Chiante' Tramble	G	So	6'2"	34-0	12.3	3.6	1.1	0.9	0.7	50.0%	35.9%	1.9	78.3%	19.0%
22	Tegra Izay	C	Sr	7'0"	35-2	11.1	2.8	3.1	0.3	0.5	60.4%	—	0.0	59.3%	14.1%
2	Brewer Carruth	G	So	6'4"	27-9	12.3	2.7	1.4	0.3	0.4	40.8%	22.9%	1.3	88.2%	15.5%
7	Fallou Diagne	C	Sr	6'11"	24-2	6.8	1.9	0.8	0.1	0.2	45.7%	28.6%	1.5	75.0%	18.4%
9	Dalyn Brandon	G	Sr	6'5"	20-4	7.8	1.7	1.1	0.2	0.2	57.4%	38.9%	0.9	60.0%	12.1%
12	Felipe Patino	G	So	6'4"	18-0	6.4	1.7	0.6	0.1	0.2	43.8%	29.6%	1.5	66.7%	17.8%
11	EJ Paymon	F	Fr	6'9"	13-2	5.4	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.7	50.0%	25.0%	0.3	53.3%	31.0%
21	IJ Ezuma	F	Jr	6'8"	8-0	8.4	2.1	1.9	0.3	0.1	31.3%	0.0%	0.4	63.6%	18.8%
6	Robert Cowherd	G	Jr	6'5"	10-0	6.3	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.5	30.0%	15.4%	1.3	50.0%	23.2%
14	Blake Lander	G	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Chandler Watts	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
5	Jett Montgomery	G	So	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Iowa State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
27	Killyan Toure	G	Fr	6'3"	37-37	25.4	8.6	3.5	2.3	1.7	51.0%	31.3%	2.2	72.2%	22.1%
0	Nate Heise	G	Sr	6'5"	37-5	24.9	5.7	4.0	1.6	0.6	53.8%	32.2%	2.4	66.7%	13.4%
23	Blake Buchanan	F	Jr	6'10"	37-36	24.5	8.5	5.7	1.7	1.1	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	49.4%	19.0%
1	Jamarion Batemon	G	Fr	6'3"	37-0	15.6	6.6	1.2	0.4	0.5	51.4%	37.0%	3.9	78.8%	24.8%
21	Dominykas Pleta	F	Fr	6'11"	35-1	11.3	4.4	2.3	0.5	0.8	70.6%	—	0.0	59.6%	20.6%
11	Dominick Nelson	G	Sr	6'5"	24-0	8.3	3.7	0.9	0.3	0.7	44.4%	0.0%	0.3	60.4%	29.2%
4	Eric Mulder	F	Sr	6'9"	20-0	3.6	0.9	1.6	0.1	0.3	53.6%	100.0%	0.1	44.4%	17.6%
13	Cade Kelderman	G	Jr	6'1"	18-0	3.8	0.9	0.2	0.7	0.1	60.0%	40.0%	0.6	50.0%	12.1%
55	Xzavion Mitchell	F	Fr	6'6"	7-0	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.1	37.5%	33.3%	0.9	50.0%	23.4%
7	Anthony Rise	G	Fr	6'0"	11-0	1.4	0.2	0.5	0.0	0.1	25.0%	—	0.0	—	18.5%
2	Mason Williams	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Southern Miss2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Southern Miss's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Tylik Weeks	F	Jr	6'7"	34-33	33.6	19.7	5.4	2.3	2.6	47.7%	22.2%	1.6	82.3%	34.7%
13	Dylan Brumfield	G	Sr	6'5"	35-35	31.2	8.4	4.1	3.1	1.9	44.3%	16.7%	0.7	73.3%	18.5%
15	Djahi Binet	F	Sr	6'7"	35-33	26.4	11.3	7.9	0.9	1.3	63.5%	33.3%	0.3	71.1%	21.6%
1	Curt Lewis	G	Sr	6'5"	35-19	23.2	5.4	2.1	0.8	0.6	52.1%	36.9%	4.0	59.1%	14.2%
0	Israel Hart	G	Sr	6'3"	34-16	21.6	7.7	1.9	1.4	1.3	42.9%	31.2%	4.1	83.6%	24.6%
10	Isaac Taveras	G	Jr	6'6"	22-20	25.9	15.3	6.8	2.3	3.3	52.5%	17.2%	1.3	58.8%	38.5%
3	Chiante' Tramble	G	So	6'2"	34-0	12.3	3.6	1.1	0.9	0.7	50.0%	35.9%	1.9	78.3%	19.0%
22	Tegra Izay	C	Sr	7'0"	35-2	11.1	2.8	3.1	0.3	0.5	60.4%	—	0.0	59.3%	14.1%
2	Brewer Carruth	G	So	6'4"	27-9	12.3	2.7	1.4	0.3	0.4	40.8%	22.9%	1.3	88.2%	15.5%
7	Fallou Diagne	C	Sr	6'11"	24-2	6.8	1.9	0.8	0.1	0.2	45.7%	28.6%	1.5	75.0%	18.4%
9	Dalyn Brandon	G	Sr	6'5"	20-4	7.8	1.7	1.1	0.2	0.2	57.4%	38.9%	0.9	60.0%	12.1%
12	Felipe Patino	G	So	6'4"	18-0	6.4	1.7	0.6	0.1	0.2	43.8%	29.6%	1.5	66.7%	17.8%
11	EJ Paymon	F	Fr	6'9"	13-2	5.4	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.7	50.0%	25.0%	0.3	53.3%	31.0%
21	IJ Ezuma	F	Jr	6'8"	8-0	8.4	2.1	1.9	0.3	0.1	31.3%	0.0%	0.4	63.6%	18.8%
6	Robert Cowherd	G	Jr	6'5"	10-0	6.3	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.5	30.0%	15.4%	1.3	50.0%	23.2%
14	Blake Lander	G	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Chandler Watts	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
5	Jett Montgomery	G	So	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Southern Miss

Against the spread

Season

16-15-2

Home

4-5-2

Road

7-8

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +5.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-12-1

Home

4-7

Road

11-4

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +7.8

Over 4 straightOver in 5 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	TroyAdjEM #136	N	L 70–78	+5.5	L−2.5	143.0	O148	98.2	109.4	71.3
Mar 7	App StateAdjEM #180	N	W 86–73	+5.0	W+18.0	137.5	O159	125.4	106.5	68.6
Mar 6	Texas StAdjEM #249	N	W 81–77	+1.5	W+5.5	140.0	O158	117.3	111.5	69.0
Mar 5	James MadisonAdjEM #206	N	W 86–80	+2.0	W+8.0	143.5	O166	119.4	111.1	72.0
Feb 27	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	A	W 68–55	+4.0	W+17.0	142.0	U123	105.1	85.0	64.7
Feb 24	Arkansas StAdjEM #132	A	L 84–89	+9.0	W+4.0	158.0	O173	106.4	112.8	78.9
Feb 21	Old DominionAdjEM #242	H	W 86–81	−5.0	P0.0	148.0	O167	106.1	100.0	81.0
Feb 14	TroyAdjEM #136	H	W 69–65	+5.0	W+9.0	144.5	U134	104.4	98.3	66.1
Feb 12	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	H	L 78–84	−1.0	L−7.0	136.0	O162	104.1	112.1	74.9
Feb 7	Kent StateAdjEM #157	H	W 66–65	+4.5	W+5.5	150.0	U131	101.6	100.0	65.0

Iowa State

Against the spread

Season

22-15

Home

9-8

Road

5-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +4.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-21

Home

9-8

Road

2-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +0.1

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 27	#6TennesseeAdjEM #13	N	L 62–76	−3.0	L−17.0	139.5	U138	91.2	111.8	68.0
Mar 22	#7KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	W 82–63	−4.5	W+14.5	146.5	U145	118.4	91.0	69.2
Mar 20	#15Tennessee StAdjEM #155	N	W 108–74	−25.0	W+9.0	147.5	O182	137.7	94.4	78.4
Mar 13	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	N	L 80–82	+3.5	W+1.5	144.5	O162	120.8	123.9	66.2
Mar 12	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	N	W 75–53	−5.5	W+16.5	143.5	U128	115.9	81.9	64.7
Mar 11	Arizona StAdjEM #93	N	W 91–42	−12.5	W+36.5	149.5	U133	132.3	61.1	68.8
Mar 7	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 86–65	−16.5	W+4.5	148.0	O151	117.9	89.1	73.0
Mar 2	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	A	L 57–73	+7.0	L−9.0	149.0	U130	85.4	109.3	66.8
Feb 28	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	H	L 73–82	−9.5	L−18.5	145.0	O155	113.1	127.1	64.5
Feb 24	UtahAdjEM #177	A	W 75–59	−14.0	W+2.0	144.5	U134	110.2	86.7	68.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Southern MissIowa State

Efficiency

106.0

118.3

108.1

97.6

69.4

68.2

—

Shooting

49.0%

56.2%

51.3%

55.4%

28.9%

38.3%

73.6%

67.5%

43.2%

34.5%

Ball control & glass

18.4%

14.9%

17.8%

22.6%

32.5%

35.2%

28.8%

28.6%

10.0%

9.6%

10.7%

10.2%

Style

28.7%

38.8%

48.6%

45.2%

15.3%

14.1%

43.8%

59.0%

31.7%

28.6%

Roster

3.46

2.34

6'5.8"

6'5.9"

—

55.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Southern Miss

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Southern Miss's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Iowa State

Returning minutes: 55.7%Returning production: 46.0%

Lost

Milan Momcilovic 30.4 mpg, 16.9 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
Joshua Jefferson 29.3 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tamin Lipsey 29.0 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Mason Williams no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 56% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.