CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceThe Sobrato Center, San Francisco, CA

N Dakota St

Efficiency #90

2025-26: 27-8 · 17-2 conf

San Francisco

Efficiency #148

2025-26: 17-16 · 9-11 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

72.6

win 44%

Projected

74.3

win 56%

No line posted yet.

Model: SF −1.7 · total 146.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: San Francisco 67.4, N Dakota St 67.8 → 66.9 possessions

−3.1

San Francisco offense vs N Dakota St defense

−0.2

N Dakota St offense vs San Francisco defense

+2.0

Projected total

146.9

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

San Francisco offense vs N Dakota St defense

−0.2

N Dakota St offense vs San Francisco defense

−2.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

San Francisco by 1.7

1.7

N Dakota St side ◂▸ San Francisco side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +1.6 against +1.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help San Francisco.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, N Dakota St is the faster team (68.1, #196 of 365) and San Francisco the slower (66.7, #256). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.9

model

Projected team totals

72.6 / 74.3

N Dakota St / San Francisco

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.8#225

N Dakota St

67.4#261

San Francisco

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageN Dakota St

Where N Dakota St scores: ball control

N Dakota St turns it over on 15.6% of possessions (#112); San Francisco forces turnovers on 14.1% of opponent possessions (#330). Expect about 14.4%, 2.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSan Francisco

Style match: 3-point volume

San Francisco takes 46.1% of its shots from three; N Dakota St lets opponents take 44.1% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.8% — both habits push the same way.

ClashSan Francisco

Strength vs strength: free-throw rate

San Francisco (#59 in free-throw rate) against N Dakota St (#46 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.0%. Historically N Dakota St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).

ClashN Dakota St

Style clash: 3-point volume

N Dakota St takes 42.8% of its shots from three; San Francisco runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 39.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

N Dakota St has the ball

OffenseSan Francisco allowsvs D1 avg

53.2% #92

50.8% #143

+1.2 pt/100

15.6% #112

14.1% #330

+2.9 pt/100

32.9% #89

29.0% #105

+0.7 pt/100

30.6% #289

29.6% #51

-0.7 pt/100

71.4% #227

—

-0.1 pt/100

N Dakota St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.0 pts/100

San Francisco has the ball

OffenseN Dakota St allowsvs D1 avg

51.2% #184

52.0% #215

+0.5 pt/100

15.8% #125

18.7% #65

-0.8 pt/100

31.3% #148

25.5% #15

-1.0 pt/100

40.1% #59

29.2% #46

-0.1 pt/100

70.9% #242

—

-0.1 pt/100

San Francisco net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N Dakota Stoffense vsSan Franciscodefense

Share of shots by zone

N Dakota St shoots

36.1

8.0

13.0

43.0

San Francisco allows

37.7

8.4

18.3

35.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.2%#115	59.3%#205	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.9%#105	45.5%#312	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.5%#134	35.0%#78	38.0%
Three	35.4%#93	34.1%#187	33.7%

San Franciscooffense vsN Dakota Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

San Francisco shoots

34.3

4.9

14.3

46.5

N Dakota St allows

35.5

6.0

15.5

43.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#229	60.0%#225	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.5%#132	42.7%#241	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.4%#278	38.2%#166	38.0%
Three	34.6%#140	33.9%#173	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N Dakota St

+5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#24 of 365

Off reb %

32.9%

#89

Def reb %

74.5%

#15

Turnover %

15.6%

#112

Forced TO %

18.7%

#65

FT rate

30.6%

#289

FT allowed

29.2%

#46

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+1.6

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+1.5

San Francisco

+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#78 of 365

Off reb %

31.3%

#148

Def reb %

71.0%

#105

Turnover %

15.8%

#125

Forced TO %

14.1%

#330

FT rate

40.1%

#59

FT allowed

29.6%

#51

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed+1.5

N Dakota St has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.0 (#24 of 365) to San Francisco’s +2.5 (#78).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Dakota St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Andy Stefonowicz	G	So	6'2"	35-33	32.5	9.1	3.1	4.8	2.1	52.6%	37.7%	4.2	90.3%	18.0%
0	Trevian Carson	G	Jr	6'3"	35-34	31.6	11.9	6.5	2.9	1.6	54.9%	37.5%	3.4	80.3%	22.1%
1	Damari Wheeler-Thomas	G	Jr	6'0"	32-32	30.5	14.5	3.5	2.8	1.5	50.7%	38.3%	5.9	76.9%	27.7%
30	Markhi Strickland	G	Sr	6'6"	35-33	24.3	11.6	3.4	1.3	1.3	59.6%	0.0%	0.0	48.4%	27.0%
34	Noah Feddersen	F	Jr	6'10"	35-16	21.1	9.3	5.0	1.0	1.3	55.6%	29.3%	1.7	80.0%	24.1%
3	Tay Smith	G	Sr	6'2"	35-5	19.8	7.7	2.5	0.8	0.5	56.7%	39.1%	5.5	76.5%	21.2%
44	Treyson Anderson	F	So	6'9"	35-19	18.3	10.4	5.3	0.8	1.4	57.5%	35.8%	3.0	65.8%	32.6%
8	Emil Skytta	G	Jr	6'5"	26-0	12.1	3.7	1.8	0.7	0.3	58.6%	37.5%	0.3	40.0%	17.6%
2	Riley Massey	G	Fr	6'3"	32-1	8.6	1.4	1.0	0.5	0.3	37.0%	22.9%	1.1	71.4%	12.7%
7	Carson Smith	G	Fr	6'6"	24-2	9.9	3.0	1.3	0.2	0.3	42.4%	22.6%	1.3	91.7%	20.1%
11	Max Majerle	G	Jr	6'4"	18-0	5.5	1.0	0.9	0.5	0.4	29.5%	12.5%	0.4	100.0%	18.4%
22	Caleb Schoenrock	F	Fr	6'7"	8-0	2.3	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.1	33.3%	—	0.0	—	12.1%
13	Riley Saunders	G	Fr	5'11"	9-0	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	93.8%	62.5%	0.9	—	27.0%
14	Dom Clay	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

San Francisco2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Ryan Beasley	G	Jr	5'11"	31-31	33.2	13.6	3.4	4.0	1.6	48.4%	32.7%	4.8	82.7%	25.3%
5	Tyrone Riley IV	G	So	6'6"	31-31	31.8	12.2	4.8	1.2	0.9	54.2%	36.8%	3.7	70.7%	22.1%
7	Vukasin Masic	G	Sr	6'5"	33-21	21.7	5.3	1.6	2.0	1.0	47.1%	29.1%	3.3	69.6%	18.0%
13	Legend Smiley	G	Fr	6'5"	33-14	21.3	8.1	1.9	0.6	0.8	59.8%	42.0%	4.0	87.5%	20.2%
35	Junjie Wang	F	Jr	6'9"	33-24	20.2	8.5	3.0	0.8	1.2	51.7%	34.2%	3.4	75.3%	25.7%
1	Mookie Cook	F	Jr	6'6"	25-5	20.8	7.6	4.2	1.5	1.7	52.4%	39.7%	2.3	71.4%	24.4%
14	Veniamin Abosi	G	So	6'6"	24-1	17.6	5.0	4.1	1.2	1.3	52.8%	40.4%	2.2	68.3%	19.4%
10	Saba Gigiberia	C	Sr	7'2"	26-0	6.3	2.2	2.7	0.6	0.5	44.6%	0.0%	0.0	34.8%	28.8%
2	Aidan Braccia	G	Jr	6'1"	15-0	6.0	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.1	23.5%	13.3%	1.0	66.7%	14.0%
23	Weilun Zhao	G	Fr	6'0"	14-0	5.4	1.3	0.2	1.1	0.6	26.3%	0.0%	0.9	72.7%	25.0%
21	Sean Blakely Drummond	G	Fr	6'4"	5-0	2.0	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.4	0.0%	26.8%
12	Isa Silva	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Ndewedo Newbury	F	Sr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N Dakota St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Andy Stefonowicz	G	So	6'2"	35-33	32.5	9.1	3.1	4.8	2.1	52.6%	37.7%	4.2	90.3%	18.0%
0	Trevian Carson	G	Jr	6'3"	35-34	31.6	11.9	6.5	2.9	1.6	54.9%	37.5%	3.4	80.3%	22.1%
1	Damari Wheeler-Thomas	G	Jr	6'0"	32-32	30.5	14.5	3.5	2.8	1.5	50.7%	38.3%	5.9	76.9%	27.7%
30	Markhi Strickland	G	Sr	6'6"	35-33	24.3	11.6	3.4	1.3	1.3	59.6%	0.0%	0.0	48.4%	27.0%
34	Noah Feddersen	F	Jr	6'10"	35-16	21.1	9.3	5.0	1.0	1.3	55.6%	29.3%	1.7	80.0%	24.1%
3	Tay Smith	G	Sr	6'2"	35-5	19.8	7.7	2.5	0.8	0.5	56.7%	39.1%	5.5	76.5%	21.2%
44	Treyson Anderson	F	So	6'9"	35-19	18.3	10.4	5.3	0.8	1.4	57.5%	35.8%	3.0	65.8%	32.6%
8	Emil Skytta	G	Jr	6'5"	26-0	12.1	3.7	1.8	0.7	0.3	58.6%	37.5%	0.3	40.0%	17.6%
2	Riley Massey	G	Fr	6'3"	32-1	8.6	1.4	1.0	0.5	0.3	37.0%	22.9%	1.1	71.4%	12.7%
7	Carson Smith	G	Fr	6'6"	24-2	9.9	3.0	1.3	0.2	0.3	42.4%	22.6%	1.3	91.7%	20.1%
11	Max Majerle	G	Jr	6'4"	18-0	5.5	1.0	0.9	0.5	0.4	29.5%	12.5%	0.4	100.0%	18.4%
22	Caleb Schoenrock	F	Fr	6'7"	8-0	2.3	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.1	33.3%	—	0.0	—	12.1%
13	Riley Saunders	G	Fr	5'11"	9-0	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	93.8%	62.5%	0.9	—	27.0%
14	Dom Clay	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N Dakota St

Against the spread

Season

17-13-2

Home

7-4

Road

8-6-1

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +3.9

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-16-2

Home

6-5

Road

7-7-1

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −0.5

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#3Michigan StAdjEM #11	N	L 67–92	+16.0	L−9.0	144.5	O159	92.0	126.4	72.8
Mar 8	North DakotaAdjEM #291	N	W 70–62	−11.0	L−3.0	148.0	U132	108.4	96.0	64.6
Mar 7	OmahaAdjEM #257	N	W 74–50	−8.0	W+16.0	147.0	U124	109.2	73.8	67.8
Mar 5	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	N	W 76–65	−12.0	L−1.0	147.5	U141	113.3	96.9	67.1
Feb 28	North DakotaAdjEM #291	H	W 96–63	−12.0	W+21.0	152.5	O159	131.1	86.1	73.2
Feb 26	St ThomasAdjEM #84	A	L 62–84	+3.0	L−19.0	155.5	U146	95.1	128.8	65.2
Feb 21	Kansas CityAdjEM #359	H	W 95–59	−19.5	W+16.5	147.5	O154	123.0	76.4	77.2
Feb 18	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	A	W 74–66	−1.0	W+7.0	147.0	U140	113.0	100.8	65.5
Feb 14	North DakotaAdjEM #291	A	W 83–66	−5.5	W+11.5	150.5	U149	128.1	101.9	64.8
Feb 7	OmahaAdjEM #257	H	W 92–84	−9.5	L−1.5	144.5	O176	137.2	125.2	67.1

San Francisco

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

5-10

Road

6-5

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −5.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-14

Home

9-6

Road

5-6

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.7

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	Oregon StAdjEM #219	N	L 77–78	−3.5	L−4.5	145.5	O155	116.6	118.1	66.0
Mar 7	PortlandAdjEM #259	N	W 82–65	−7.0	W+10.0	144.5	O147	122.3	97.0	67.0
Feb 28	PacificAdjEM #126	A	W 72–61	+4.5	W+15.5	143.5	U133	111.7	94.6	64.5
Feb 21	Santa ClaraAdjEM #33	H	L 73–94	+6.5	L−14.5	159.0	O167	97.8	125.9	74.7
Feb 18	#11GonzagaAdjEM #8	H	L 59–80	+15.5	L−5.5	151.0	U139	87.9	119.2	67.1
Feb 15	San DiegoAdjEM #269	A	W 92–79	−5.0	W+8.0	148.0	O171	133.2	114.3	69.1
Feb 12	Oregon StAdjEM #219	H	L 63–90	−9.0	L−36.0	141.0	O153	103.8	148.3	60.7
Feb 7	Saint Mary'sAdjEM #23	A	L 54–79	+11.5	L−13.5	143.0	U133	84.1	123.1	64.2
Feb 4	LMUAdjEM #183	H	L 75–84	−8.0	L−17.0	146.0	O159	108.8	121.8	69.0
Jan 31	PacificAdjEM #126	H	W 87–82	−4.0	W+1.0	138.0	O169	128.4	121.1	67.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N Dakota StSan Francisco

Efficiency

110.7

110.5

106.2

109.2

67.8

67.4

—

Shooting

53.2%

51.2%

53.3%

50.7%

35.4%

34.6%

71.4%

70.9%

30.6%

40.1%

Ball control & glass

15.6%

15.8%

18.7%

14.1%

32.9%

31.3%

25.5%

29.0%

9.2%

9.3%

8.7%

Style

42.8%

46.1%

43.2%

36.9%

11.9%

10.1%

53.0%

55.6%

31.2%

34.2%

Roster

2.81

2.61

6'4.2"

6'4.8"

—

81.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N Dakota St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

San Francisco

Returning minutes: 81.0%Returning production: 76.4%

Lost

David Fuchs 21.1 mpg, 11.2 ppg · transferred to Clemson
Guillermo Diaz Graham 17.2 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Ndewedo Newbury no D1 minutes last season
Isa Silva no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 81% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.