CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceColeman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
Arkansas St
Efficiency #132
2025-26: 20-12 · 11-8 conf
@
Alabama
Efficiency #18
2025-26: 25-10 · 13-6 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
77.6
win 10%
Projected
92.3
win 90%
No line posted yet.
Model: ALA −14.7 · total 169.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Alabama 71.9, Arkansas St 71.4 → 75.0 possessions
+14.5
Alabama offense vs Arkansas St defense
+8.8
Arkansas St offense vs Alabama defense
−1.6
Projected total
169.9
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Alabama offense vs Arkansas St defense
+8.8
Arkansas St offense vs Alabama defense
+1.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.3
Alabama by 14.7
14.7
Arkansas St side ◂▸ Alabama side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Alabama.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 75.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Alabama is the faster team (74.2, #5 of 365) and Arkansas St the slower (72.5, #15). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
75.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
169.9
model
Projected team totals
77.6 / 92.3
Arkansas St / Alabama
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.4#11
Arkansas St
71.9#5
Alabama
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
Alabama averages 74.2 possessions per 40, Arkansas St 72.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 76 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageArkansas St
Where Arkansas St scores: the offensive glass
Arkansas St rebounds 38.2% of its own misses (#6); Alabama lets opponents grab 32.8% of their own misses (#295). Expect about 37.0%, 6.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageAlabama
Where Alabama scores: ball control
Alabama turns it over on 13.1% of possessions (#9); Arkansas St forces turnovers on 14.9% of opponent possessions (#299). Expect about 13.5%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashArkansas St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Arkansas St takes 44.9% of its shots from three; Alabama runs teams off the line (35.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Arkansas St has the ball
OffenseAlabama allowsvs D1 avg
51.7% #164
49.2% #73
-1.2 pt/100
19.8% #345
12.8% #359
+1.0 pt/100
38.2% #6
32.8% #295
+4.0 pt/100
39.1% #78
32.0% #103
+0.0 pt/100
73.3% #160
—
+0.1 pt/100
Arkansas St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.9 pts/100
Alabama has the ball
OffenseArkansas St allowsvs D1 avg
55.2% #34
50.3% #117
+2.5 pt/100
13.1% #9
14.9% #299
+4.0 pt/100
32.4% #111
27.0% #36
-0.2 pt/100
36.0% #150
37.0% #237
+0.2 pt/100
76.7% #39
—
+0.4 pt/100
Alabama net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersArkansas Stoffense vsAlabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
Arkansas St shoots
39.9
6.0
8.6
45.5
Alabama allows
36.8
7.0
21.2
35.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.6%#137 | 55.1%#64 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.0%#288 | 36.3%#98 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.6%#272 | 38.5%#175 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.9%#240 | 33.8%#170 | 33.7% |
Alabamaoffense vsArkansas Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Alabama shoots
33.8
4.7
7.5
54.0
Arkansas St allows
36.6
6.1
18.9
38.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.8%#98 | 58.4%#162 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.6%#88 | 42.7%#243 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.7%#10 | 38.7%#187 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.8%#66 | 32.9%#115 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersArkansas St
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#139 of 365
Off reb %
38.2%
#6
Def reb %
73.0%
#36
Turnover %
19.8%
#345
Forced TO %
14.9%
#299
FT rate
39.1%
#78
FT allowed
37.0%
#237
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.5
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security−2.1
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Alabama
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#148 of 365
Off reb %
32.4%
#111
Def reb %
67.2%
#295
Turnover %
13.1%
#9
Forced TO %
12.8%
#359
FT rate
36.0%
#150
FT allowed
32.0%
#103
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+2.5
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Arkansas St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#139 of 365) to Alabama’s +0.8 (#148).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Arkansas St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Christian Harmon | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-28 | 27.5 | 12.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 52.2% | 34.6% | 7.6 | 81.8% | 26.8% | |
| 0 | Chandler Jackson | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-30 | 26.9 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 51.7% | 25.9% | 1.7 | 70.5% | 23.5% | |
| 12 | Jalen Hampton | G | Sr | 6'7" | 30-22 | 26.2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 58.6% | 32.3% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 17.6% | |
| 22 | Jaxon Ellingsworth | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-13 | 22.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 54.8% | 34.7% | 3.0 | 75.6% | 23.0% | |
| 1 | Matt Hayman | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-22 | 22.7 | 11.7 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 50.0% | 33.2% | 5.9 | 79.5% | 31.7% | |
| 2 | TJ Caldwell | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-6 | 20.2 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 48.5% | 33.8% | 4.1 | 82.8% | 26.8% | |
| 10 | Chudi Dioramma | F | So | 6'10" | 25-8 | 15.5 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 50.5% | — | 0.0 | 66.0% | 19.2% | |
| 20 | Joey Chammaa | G | So | 5'11" | 21-1 | 16.9 | 9.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 51.0% | 32.7% | 2.6 | 81.5% | 29.9% | |
| 3 | Royal Blue Smith | G | Fr | 6'4" | 27-3 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 55.2% | 36.1% | 2.7 | 53.1% | 24.8% | |
| 21 | Fredy-Salam Sylla | G | So | 6'8" | 18-6 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 48.5% | 25.0% | 1.8 | 50.0% | 24.4% | |
| 15 | CJ Geathers | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Grayson Bennett | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Rho Omed | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | Tim Matthews | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Weston Honeycutt | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Alabama2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Amari Allen | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-24 | 28.3 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 53.3% | 34.1% | 4.3 | 73.8% | 21.7% | |
| 22 | Aiden Sherrell | F | So | 6'10" | 34-34 | 23.9 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 59.5% | 33.8% | 2.4 | 71.3% | 22.4% | |
| 2 | Aden Holloway | G | Jr | 6'1" | 28-27 | 28.4 | 16.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 59.9% | 43.8% | 6.0 | 86.4% | 27.3% | |
| 7 | Taylor Bol Bowen | F | Jr | 6'10" | 30-11 | 19.1 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 51.0% | 30.2% | 3.2 | 79.6% | 18.0% | |
| 6 | London Jemison | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-13 | 15.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 54.1% | 34.8% | 2.7 | 60.4% | 21.5% | |
| 15 | Noah Williamson | C | Sr | 7'0" | 33-0 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 36.5% | 16.7% | 0.9 | 64.3% | 14.7% | |
| 1 | Jalil Bethea | G | So | 6'5" | 26-0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 47.5% | 31.4% | 2.0 | 80.6% | 27.6% | |
| 4 | Davion Hannah | G | Fr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 53.8% | 36.4% | 1.1 | 62.5% | 16.4% | |
| 10 | Keitenn Bristow | F | So | 6'10" | 10-1 | 12.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 37.9% | 11.1% | 0.9 | 73.3% | 20.0% | |
| 11 | Preston Murphy Jr. | G | Jr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 17.8% | |
| 25 | Jacob Martin | F | So | — | 9-0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 8.1% | |
| 34 | Collins Onyejiaka | C | Fr | 6'11" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 22.7% | |
| 31 | Jack Fagan | G | So | — | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 30 | Klark James | G | Sr | — | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Arkansas St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Christian Harmon | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-28 | 27.5 | 12.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 52.2% | 34.6% | 7.6 | 81.8% | 26.8% | |
| 0 | Chandler Jackson | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-30 | 26.9 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 51.7% | 25.9% | 1.7 | 70.5% | 23.5% | |
| 12 | Jalen Hampton | G | Sr | 6'7" | 30-22 | 26.2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 58.6% | 32.3% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 17.6% | |
| 22 | Jaxon Ellingsworth | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-13 | 22.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 54.8% | 34.7% | 3.0 | 75.6% | 23.0% | |
| 1 | Matt Hayman | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-22 | 22.7 | 11.7 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 50.0% | 33.2% | 5.9 | 79.5% | 31.7% | |
| 2 | TJ Caldwell | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-6 | 20.2 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 48.5% | 33.8% | 4.1 | 82.8% | 26.8% | |
| 10 | Chudi Dioramma | F | So | 6'10" | 25-8 | 15.5 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 50.5% | — | 0.0 | 66.0% | 19.2% | |
| 20 | Joey Chammaa | G | So | 5'11" | 21-1 | 16.9 | 9.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 51.0% | 32.7% | 2.6 | 81.5% | 29.9% | |
| 3 | Royal Blue Smith | G | Fr | 6'4" | 27-3 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 55.2% | 36.1% | 2.7 | 53.1% | 24.8% | |
| 21 | Fredy-Salam Sylla | G | So | 6'8" | 18-6 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 48.5% | 25.0% | 1.8 | 50.0% | 24.4% | |
| 15 | CJ Geathers | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Grayson Bennett | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Rho Omed | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | Tim Matthews | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Weston Honeycutt | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Arkansas St
Against the spread
Season
15-15
Home
7-6
Road
8-8
Last 10
4-6
avg cover +1.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 10 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
15-14-1
Home
5-7-1
Road
10-6
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +0.7
Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 10 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | GA Southern | N | L 77–80 | −7.5 | L−10.5 | 166.0 | U157 | 112.0 | 116.4 | 68.7 |
| Feb 27 | Louisiana | H | W 81–58 | −14.0 | W+9.0 | 146.5 | U139 | 107.1 | 76.7 | 75.7 |
| Feb 24 | Southern Miss | H | W 89–84 | −9.0 | L−4.0 | 158.0 | O173 | 112.8 | 106.4 | 78.9 |
| Feb 21 | UL Monroe | A | W 102–94 | −15.5 | L−7.5 | 164.0 | O196 | 131.2 | 120.9 | 77.8 |
| Feb 19 | Louisiana | A | W 79–62 | −9.0 | W+8.0 | 145.0 | U141 | 114.9 | 90.2 | 68.8 |
| Feb 14 | South Alabama | H | L 88–92 OT | −7.5 | L−11.5 | 150.0 | O180 | 115.3 | 120.6 | 76.3 |
| Feb 11 | UL Monroe | H | W 103–70 | −21.0 | W+12.0 | 163.0 | O173 | 139.2 | 94.6 | 74.0 |
| Feb 7 | Bowling Green | H | W 91–54 | −3.5 | W+33.5 | 155.0 | U145 | 121.0 | 71.8 | 75.2 |
| Feb 4 | Coastal | A | W 70–66 | −5.0 | L−1.0 | 151.5 | U136 | 100.0 | 94.3 | 70.0 |
| Jan 31 | Marshall | H | L 61–70 | −4.0 | L−13.0 | 165.5 | U131 | 96.1 | 110.2 | 63.5 |
Alabama
Against the spread
Season
16-19
Home
6-9
Road
5-5
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +2.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
18-17
Home
7-8
Road
7-3
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +2.0
Under 2 straightOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | #1Michigan | N | L 77–90 | +9.5 | L−3.5 | 173.0 | U167 | 108.3 | 126.6 | 71.1 |
| Mar 22 | #5Texas Tech | N | W 90–65 | −1.0 | W+24.0 | 164.5 | U155 | 129.9 | 93.8 | 69.3 |
| Mar 20 | #13Hofstra | N | W 90–70 | −11.5 | W+8.5 | 159.0 | O160 | 129.1 | 100.4 | 69.7 |
| Mar 13 | Ole Miss | N | L 79–80 | −12.5 | L−13.5 | 164.5 | U159 | 107.5 | 108.8 | 73.5 |
| Mar 7 | Auburn | H | W 96–84 | −6.0 | W+6.0 | 175.0 | O180 | 134.9 | 118.0 | 71.2 |
| Mar 3 | Georgia | A | L 88–98 | −1.5 | L−11.5 | 180.0 | O186 | 117.7 | 131.1 | 74.7 |
| Feb 28 | #22Tennessee | A | W 71–69 | +5.0 | W+7.0 | 162.5 | U140 | 112.7 | 109.5 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Mississippi St | H | W 100–75 | −12.5 | W+12.5 | 175.5 | U175 | 131.7 | 98.8 | 75.9 |
| Feb 21 | LSU | A | W 90–83 | −7.5 | L−0.5 | 172.0 | O173 | 126.7 | 116.9 | 71.0 |
| Feb 18 | #20Arkansas | H | W 117–115 2OT | −4.0 | L−2.0 | 181.0 | O232 | 133.6 | 131.3 | 87.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeArkansas StAlabama
Efficiency
109.9
120.7
107.9
104.9
71.4
71.9
—
—
Shooting
51.7%
55.2%
53.6%
57.0%
32.9%
35.8%
73.3%
76.7%
39.1%
36.0%
Ball control & glass
19.8%
13.1%
14.9%
12.8%
38.2%
32.4%
27.0%
32.8%
12.2%
8.6%
10.2%
12.6%
Style
44.9%
54.3%
43.0%
35.8%
13.8%
14.3%
55.8%
54.3%
38.2%
33.9%
Roster
3.24
2.08
6'5.8"
6'7.4"
91.0%
62.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputArkansas St
Returning minutes: 91.0%Returning production: 91.7%
Lost
- Aly Tounkara 18.2 mpg, 4.3 ppg · transferred to Boston College
Added
- Tim Matthews no D1 minutes last season
- Weston Honeycutt no D1 minutes last season
- Rho Omed no D1 minutes last season
- CJ Geathers no D1 minutes last season
- Grayson Bennett no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 91% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Alabama
Returning minutes: 62.0%Returning production: 60.6%
Lost
- Labaron Philon Jr. 29.1 mpg, 20.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Houston Mallette 23.3 mpg, 6.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Latrell Wrightsell Jr. 21.0 mpg, 10.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Charles Bediako 3.1 mpg, 1.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
Nobody of note.
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.