CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceAllen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS

MTSU

Efficiency #167

2025-26: 17-15 · 11-10 conf

Kansas

Efficiency #25

2025-26: 24-11 · 13-7 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

64.9

win 13%

Projected

77.9

win 87%

No line posted yet.

Model: KU −13.0 · total 142.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Kansas 68.5, MTSU 67.2 → 67.3 possessions

−2.1

Kansas offense vs MTSU defense

+2.9

MTSU offense vs Kansas defense

−6.2

Projected total

142.7

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Kansas offense vs MTSU defense

+2.9

MTSU offense vs Kansas defense

+6.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Kansas by 13.0

13.0

MTSU side ◂▸ Kansas side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 142.8 against a projected 142.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kansas.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas is the faster team (68.3, #181 of 365) and MTSU the slower (66.5, #266). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

142.7

model

Projected team totals

64.9 / 77.9

MTSU / Kansas

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.2#275

MTSU

68.5#170

Kansas

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMTSU

Where MTSU struggles: shooting

MTSU shoots an effective 51.6% (#167); Kansas allows 45.0% (#2). Expect about 48.2%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.3 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseKansas

Kansas's shot-blocking

Kansas ranks #6 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.2% of MTSU's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageKansas

Where Kansas scores: ball control

Kansas turns it over on 15.6% of possessions (#109); MTSU forces turnovers on 15.0% of opponent possessions (#291). Expect about 15.0%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversMTSU

MTSU protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for MTSU's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect MTSU at about 45.7% of its shots from three, Kansas about 33.4%.

ClashKansas

Style match: 3-point volume

Kansas rarely shoots threes (35.2% of its shots); MTSU runs teams off the line (35.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.4% — both habits push the same way.

MTSU has the ball

OffenseKansas allowsvs D1 avg

51.6% #167

45.0% #2

-4.3 pt/100

17.1% #214

13.8% #339

+2.1 pt/100

30.7% #171

29.9% #152

-0.0 pt/100

32.7% #245

27.4% #26

-0.7 pt/100

70.2% #267

—

-0.2 pt/100

MTSU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100

Kansas has the ball

OffenseMTSU allowsvs D1 avg

51.2% #186

51.0% #155

-0.3 pt/100

15.6% #109

15.0% #291

+2.2 pt/100

29.2% #227

28.5% #83

-1.1 pt/100

32.2% #255

35.7% #204

-0.1 pt/100

76.7% #37

—

+0.4 pt/100

Kansas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

MTSUoffense vsKansasdefense

Share of shots by zone

MTSU shoots

30.4

7.2

17.0

45.4

Kansas allows

32.7

10.4

15.6

41.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.3%#65	51.3%#10	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.6%#183	37.6%#127	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.9%#114	31.9%#16	38.0%
Three	33.8%#183	30.6%#24	33.7%

Kansasoffense vsMTSUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Kansas shoots

35.9

9.4

20.3

34.4

MTSU allows

42.2

7.7

14.9

35.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.0%#51	58.9%#188	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.3%#283	37.5%#124	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.2%#259	33.0%#30	38.0%
Three	34.6%#139	33.9%#180	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

MTSU

−1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#253 of 365

Off reb %

30.7%

#171

Def reb %

71.5%

#83

Turnover %

17.1%

#214

Forced TO %

15.0%

#291

FT rate

32.7%

#245

FT allowed

35.7%

#204

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.7

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Kansas

0.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#180 of 365

Off reb %

29.2%

#227

Def reb %

70.1%

#152

Turnover %

15.6%

#109

Forced TO %

13.8%

#339

FT rate

32.2%

#255

FT allowed

27.4%

#26

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers−2.0

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Kansas has more extra scoring chances per game: 0.0 (#180 of 365) to MTSU’s −1.4 (#253).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

MTSU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted MTSU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Torey Alston	F	So	6'9"	32-32	29.3	13.1	7.9	1.4	1.9	55.9%	11.1%	0.6	63.6%	26.7%
22	Kamari Lands	G	Sr	6'8"	32-32	29.2	13.3	3.7	2.2	1.4	49.0%	32.1%	5.9	80.8%	28.4%
2	Jahvin Carter	G	So	6'3"	32-19	26.8	10.8	3.2	3.6	1.6	47.9%	33.6%	4.3	76.2%	27.4%
13	Chris Loofe	F	Jr	6'11"	32-32	24.9	7.3	6.3	0.8	1.7	54.9%	26.3%	1.2	62.2%	19.4%
55	Sean Smith	G	Sr	6'3"	32-16	23.2	9.3	2.3	3.5	1.5	51.4%	36.1%	2.6	75.9%	25.9%
0	Alec Oglesby	G	Sr	6'5"	30-17	24.0	8.3	1.9	0.9	0.7	56.4%	40.9%	5.0	70.7%	19.4%
11	Tre Green	G	Sr	6'3"	31-12	18.7	7.1	2.1	0.6	0.6	51.3%	35.0%	5.1	90.3%	22.1%
3	Luka Jovanovic	C	Fr	6'11"	31-0	13.7	2.2	3.0	0.4	0.5	70.9%	100.0%	0.0	53.3%	9.1%
1	Marcus Whitlock Jr.	G	So	6'3"	21-0	11.6	3.9	1.1	0.5	0.3	56.0%	35.8%	2.5	75.0%	18.4%
23	James Dent Jr.	G	Sr	6'5"	20-0	10.6	1.9	1.7	0.9	0.5	39.0%	20.7%	1.4	55.6%	14.9%
5	Jarred Hall	F	Jr	6'9"	11-0	8.4	2.5	1.5	0.6	0.8	53.8%	30.8%	1.2	—	20.8%
20	Savon Wykle	G	Sr	6'5"	1-0	13.0	10.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	71.4%	40.0%	5.0	—	32.3%
12	Brandon Oloumou	C	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Charvez Ambrose	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Jax Howard	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Kansas2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Jamari McDowell	G	So	6'5"	35-7	17.3	3.3	1.6	1.1	0.5	51.0%	34.9%	2.5	62.5%	12.5%
13	Elmarko Jackson	G	So	6'3"	34-1	17.7	4.8	1.8	1.4	1.0	44.4%	37.2%	1.3	82.5%	18.4%
7	Kohl Rosario	G	Fr	6'6"	29-6	11.6	3.4	1.3	0.4	0.4	52.9%	28.6%	2.2	75.0%	17.9%
1	Jayden Dawson	G	Sr	6'5"	24-1	9.6	2.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	42.6%	27.9%	1.8	100.0%	14.8%
34	Paul Mbiya	C	Fr	7'0"	21-0	5.1	1.2	1.4	0.0	0.1	68.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	12.6%
6	Samis Calderon	F	Fr	6'8"	15-0	4.3	0.4	0.8	0.3	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	33.3%	11.7%
0	Nginyu Ngala	G	Sr	5'10"	11-0	3.5	1.5	0.6	0.3	0.2	50.0%	50.0%	0.7	100.0%	23.7%
12	Wilder Evers	G	Jr	6'4"	6-1	3.2	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.5	80.0%	50.0%	0.7	—	23.2%
25	Justin Cross	F	Sr	6'8"	5-1	2.6	0.0	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.0%	—	0.0	—	16.8%
21	Will Thengvall	G	So	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	7.0%
2	Corbin Allen	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

MTSU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted MTSU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Torey Alston	F	So	6'9"	32-32	29.3	13.1	7.9	1.4	1.9	55.9%	11.1%	0.6	63.6%	26.7%
22	Kamari Lands	G	Sr	6'8"	32-32	29.2	13.3	3.7	2.2	1.4	49.0%	32.1%	5.9	80.8%	28.4%
2	Jahvin Carter	G	So	6'3"	32-19	26.8	10.8	3.2	3.6	1.6	47.9%	33.6%	4.3	76.2%	27.4%
13	Chris Loofe	F	Jr	6'11"	32-32	24.9	7.3	6.3	0.8	1.7	54.9%	26.3%	1.2	62.2%	19.4%
55	Sean Smith	G	Sr	6'3"	32-16	23.2	9.3	2.3	3.5	1.5	51.4%	36.1%	2.6	75.9%	25.9%
0	Alec Oglesby	G	Sr	6'5"	30-17	24.0	8.3	1.9	0.9	0.7	56.4%	40.9%	5.0	70.7%	19.4%
11	Tre Green	G	Sr	6'3"	31-12	18.7	7.1	2.1	0.6	0.6	51.3%	35.0%	5.1	90.3%	22.1%
3	Luka Jovanovic	C	Fr	6'11"	31-0	13.7	2.2	3.0	0.4	0.5	70.9%	100.0%	0.0	53.3%	9.1%
1	Marcus Whitlock Jr.	G	So	6'3"	21-0	11.6	3.9	1.1	0.5	0.3	56.0%	35.8%	2.5	75.0%	18.4%
23	James Dent Jr.	G	Sr	6'5"	20-0	10.6	1.9	1.7	0.9	0.5	39.0%	20.7%	1.4	55.6%	14.9%
5	Jarred Hall	F	Jr	6'9"	11-0	8.4	2.5	1.5	0.6	0.8	53.8%	30.8%	1.2	—	20.8%
20	Savon Wykle	G	Sr	6'5"	1-0	13.0	10.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	71.4%	40.0%	5.0	—	32.3%
12	Brandon Oloumou	C	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Charvez Ambrose	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Jax Howard	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

MTSU

Against the spread

Season

13-16

Home

4-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +0.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

7-5

Road

5-8

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +11.4

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	N	L 69–80	−2.0	L−13.0	133.5	O149	104.0	120.6	66.3
Mar 7	Missouri StAdjEM #212	A	W 75–63	+2.5	W+14.5	146.5	U138	113.1	95.0	66.3
Mar 5	FIUAdjEM #200	A	W 73–67	−1.0	W+5.0	153.5	U140	106.1	97.4	68.8
Feb 28	New Mexico StAdjEM #178	H	W 86–85 OT	−5.5	L−4.5	148.0	O171	114.3	113.0	75.2
Feb 26	UTEPAdjEM #279	H	W 77–67	−8.5	W+1.5	139.5	O144	112.8	98.2	68.3
Feb 21	DelawareAdjEM #302	H	W 78–66	−10.0	W+2.0	137.5	O144	125.8	106.5	62.0
Feb 18	Sam HoustonAdjEM #101	A	L 70–78	+4.0	L−4.0	151.5	U148	100.5	112.0	69.6
Feb 14	Western KYAdjEM #159	A	L 80–82	+3.0	W+1.0	144.5	O162	113.2	116.0	70.7
Feb 12	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	A	W 90–87	+3.0	W+6.0	147.5	O177	128.3	124.0	70.1
Feb 7	DelawareAdjEM #302	A	L 88–89 OT	−4.5	L−5.5	133.5	O177	128.5	129.9	68.5

Kansas

Against the spread

Season

20-14-1

Home

10-5

Road

5-6

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −5.2

Covered the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-24

Home

6-9

Road

3-8

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.9

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#5St John'sAdjEM #16	N	L 65–67	+3.5	W+1.5	145.5	U132	92.7	95.5	70.2
Mar 20	#13CA BaptistAdjEM #102	N	W 68–60	−14.0	L−6.0	142.0	U128	98.1	86.5	69.3
Mar 13	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	N	L 47–69	+5.5	L−16.5	138.0	U116	79.3	116.4	59.3
Mar 12	TCUAdjEM #51	N	W 78–73	−5.0	P0.0	146.5	O151	104.6	97.9	74.6
Mar 7	Kansas StAdjEM #128	H	W 104–85	−17.5	W+1.5	157.0	O189	133.2	108.9	78.0
Mar 3	Arizona StAdjEM #93	A	L 60–70	−6.0	L−16.0	150.0	U130	82.8	96.7	72.4
Feb 28	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	A	L 61–84	+10.0	L−13.0	151.5	U145	88.2	121.4	69.2
Feb 23	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	H	W 69–56	+2.5	W+15.5	138.0	U125	106.3	86.3	64.9
Feb 21	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	H	L 68–84	−9.0	L−25.0	139.0	O152	100.5	124.2	67.7
Feb 18	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	A	W 81–69	−6.5	W+5.5	159.5	U150	115.2	98.2	70.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MTSUKansas

Efficiency

108.8

112.9

108.4

98.9

67.2

68.5

—

Shooting

51.6%

51.2%

52.3%

50.9%

33.8%

34.6%

70.2%

76.7%

32.7%

32.2%

Ball control & glass

17.1%

15.6%

15.0%

13.8%

30.7%

29.2%

28.5%

29.9%

9.3%

9.5%

8.3%

8.1%

Style

45.3%

35.2%

37.7%

44.7%

11.4%

13.8%

53.5%

52.3%

34.4%

25.2%

Roster

3.05

2.04

6'6.4"

6'4.9"

—

28.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

MTSU

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted MTSU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Kansas

Returning minutes: 28.8%Returning production: 18.1%

Lost

Melvin Council Jr. 34.8 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Flory Bidunga 31.6 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Tre White 31.3 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Bryson Tiller 25.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg · transferred to Missouri
Darryn Peterson 19.9 mpg, 13.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Corbin Allen no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 29% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.