CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceArena-Auditorium, Laramie, WY

Idaho St

Efficiency #253

2025-26: 13-20 · 6-14 conf

Wyoming

Efficiency #98

2025-26: 18-15 · 9-12 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

69.7

win 21%

Projected

79.3

win 79%

No line posted yet.

Model: WYO −9.5 · total 149.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Wyoming 67.7, Idaho St 67.0 → 66.3 possessions

−4.3

Wyoming offense vs Idaho St defense

+5.4

Idaho St offense vs Wyoming defense

−0.3

Projected total

149.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Wyoming offense vs Idaho St defense

+5.4

Idaho St offense vs Wyoming defense

+0.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Wyoming by 9.5

9.5

Idaho St side ◂▸ Wyoming side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Wyoming.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Wyoming is the faster team (67.6, #221 of 365) and Idaho St the slower (67.0, #243). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.0

model

Projected team totals

69.7 / 79.3

Idaho St / Wyoming

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.0#292

Idaho St

67.7#237

Wyoming

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageWyoming

Where Wyoming scores: shooting

Wyoming shoots an effective 51.8% (#154); Idaho St allows 54.5% (#315). Expect about 53.2%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.

ClashIdaho St

Style match: ball movement

Idaho St creates off the dribble (assists on 47.0% of its baskets); Wyoming breaks up passing offenses (assists on 45.2% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 44.3% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversWyoming

Wyoming protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for Wyoming's offense.

Idaho St has the ball

OffenseWyoming allowsvs D1 avg

51.8% #151

52.0% #211

+1.0 pt/100

17.0% #204

16.8% #171

-0.2 pt/100

32.8% #94

28.0% #66

+0.3 pt/100

37.9% #104

47.9% #360

+1.1 pt/100

74.1% #127

—

+0.1 pt/100

Idaho St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100

Wyoming has the ball

OffenseIdaho St allowsvs D1 avg

51.8% #154

54.5% #315

+2.8 pt/100

16.3% #155

14.7% #309

+2.0 pt/100

34.1% #66

27.9% #63

+0.8 pt/100

35.4% #166

38.0% #260

+0.2 pt/100

74.3% #115

—

+0.2 pt/100

Wyoming net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Idaho Stoffense vsWyomingdefense

Share of shots by zone

Idaho St shoots

38.3

8.9

11.1

41.8

Wyoming allows

41.4

6.9

16.1

35.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.1%#191	61.7%#292	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.5%#131	44.2%#273	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.9%#39	36.1%#111	38.0%
Three	33.6%#192	32.8%#108	33.7%

Wyomingoffense vsIdaho Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Wyoming shoots

41.6

3.7

11.6

43.1

Idaho St allows

40.5

7.5

15.3

36.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.9%#242	61.8%#296	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.4%#72	45.2%#303	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.3%#102	45.3%#351	38.0%
Three	33.0%#234	34.5%#220	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Idaho St

+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#173 of 365

Off reb %

32.8%

#94

Def reb %

72.1%

#63

Turnover %

17.0%

#204

Forced TO %

14.7%

#309

FT rate

37.9%

#104

FT allowed

38.0%

#260

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn+0.8

Foul shots allowed−0.7

Wyoming

−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#213 of 365

Off reb %

34.1%

#66

Def reb %

72.0%

#66

Turnover %

16.3%

#155

Forced TO %

16.8%

#171

FT rate

35.4%

#166

FT allowed

47.9%

#360

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.8

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+0.1

Foul shots allowed−3.3

Idaho St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.2 (#173 of 365) to Wyoming’s −0.7 (#213).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Idaho St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Connor Hollenbeck	F	Sr	6'7"	33-33	29.9	13.2	4.7	1.6	1.8	52.5%	34.4%	3.9	79.1%	26.5%
12	Lachlan Brewer	G	So	6'6"	33-29	29.5	8.2	3.5	1.1	1.2	53.7%	31.0%	3.5	83.3%	17.2%
2	Jamison Guerra	PG	Sr	6'0"	33-28	25.7	8.8	2.3	3.8	1.5	50.0%	40.5%	2.5	78.4%	22.3%
24	Caleb Van De Griend	F	Sr	6'8"	33-1	18.2	11.8	6.4	0.6	1.1	57.8%	34.1%	1.2	67.5%	36.3%
5	Cheikh Sow	G	Jr	6'7"	30-7	17.6	2.9	3.2	0.4	0.6	32.4%	6.7%	1.0	76.9%	13.5%
30	Evan Otten	F	So	6'11"	33-32	14.8	4.7	3.8	0.3	0.9	52.7%	100.0%	0.0	60.7%	21.3%
0	Gus Etchison	PG	Sr	5'11"	32-5	13.2	8.8	1.4	2.1	1.2	53.1%	34.7%	3.2	66.1%	41.3%
13	Louis Bond	G	Fr	6'5"	24-2	14.0	4.9	1.9	0.5	0.9	51.2%	35.5%	1.3	84.6%	21.5%
32	Blake Daberkow	F	Sr	6'10"	32-0	8.0	3.3	1.6	0.4	0.6	54.1%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	25.9%
21	Quin Patterson	G	Jr	6'7"	24-0	8.5	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.3	44.3%	27.3%	1.4	66.7%	14.0%
3	Landen Birley	G	Fr	6'4"	9-1	3.9	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	6.7%
4	Jaedyn Brown	G	So	6'5"	3-0	6.0	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.3	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	17.7%
14	Kasen Carpenter	G	Sr	6'5"	7-0	1.6	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	31.8%
8	Trey Arland	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Wyoming2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Wyoming's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Leland Walker	G	Sr	6'1"	33-32	28.7	13.5	3.0	3.8	2.3	45.4%	28.6%	3.6	82.7%	31.7%
3	Khaden Bennett	G	Jr	6'4"	33-32	28.3	10.2	4.9	2.8	1.3	50.0%	35.7%	3.8	80.2%	22.0%
2	Nasir Meyer	G	Fr	6'7"	31-23	27.6	12.9	4.9	2.4	1.8	54.7%	35.2%	4.6	75.5%	27.7%
1	Damarion Dennis	G	So	6'1"	32-19	23.9	11.2	3.2	1.3	0.6	58.7%	34.0%	3.1	86.1%	23.7%
13	Adam Harakow	G	Jr	6'7"	33-7	18.9	6.1	2.8	0.7	0.6	57.1%	38.1%	2.5	68.0%	18.1%
0	Uriyah Rojas	G	Jr	6'3"	33-2	16.6	6.2	1.9	1.7	0.6	47.3%	31.3%	2.9	76.3%	23.9%
11	Gavin Gores	F	Fr	6'10"	28-8	18.0	7.3	3.4	0.4	1.0	62.3%	22.2%	0.6	68.8%	21.9%
8	Kiani Saxon	F	Sr	6'8"	33-16	14.9	2.0	2.8	0.4	0.6	51.8%	37.5%	0.5	32.1%	10.9%
10	Abou Magassa	F	So	6'7"	29-11	10.3	3.1	3.0	0.2	0.5	57.6%	—	0.0	51.2%	18.2%
35	Simm-Marten Saadi	F	Fr	6'9"	32-3	8.6	3.2	1.1	0.3	0.5	46.6%	30.8%	2.4	100.0%	26.2%
7	Matija Belic	F	Sr	6'7"	13-12	17.0	5.5	4.5	0.8	1.9	50.0%	21.1%	1.5	55.6%	23.4%
9	Jared Harris	G	So	6'2"	12-0	9.7	4.0	2.4	0.3	0.3	43.2%	30.0%	1.7	80.0%	23.7%
14	Garrett Spielman	G	Fr	6'7"	8-0	2.0	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.1	66.7%	66.7%	0.4	—	24.8%
32	Talan Taylor	G	Fr	6'4"	3-0	2.3	1.0	0.7	0.3	0.0	75.0%	50.0%	0.7	—	15.7%
45	Neil Summers	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Idaho St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Connor Hollenbeck	F	Sr	6'7"	33-33	29.9	13.2	4.7	1.6	1.8	52.5%	34.4%	3.9	79.1%	26.5%
12	Lachlan Brewer	G	So	6'6"	33-29	29.5	8.2	3.5	1.1	1.2	53.7%	31.0%	3.5	83.3%	17.2%
2	Jamison Guerra	PG	Sr	6'0"	33-28	25.7	8.8	2.3	3.8	1.5	50.0%	40.5%	2.5	78.4%	22.3%
24	Caleb Van De Griend	F	Sr	6'8"	33-1	18.2	11.8	6.4	0.6	1.1	57.8%	34.1%	1.2	67.5%	36.3%
5	Cheikh Sow	G	Jr	6'7"	30-7	17.6	2.9	3.2	0.4	0.6	32.4%	6.7%	1.0	76.9%	13.5%
30	Evan Otten	F	So	6'11"	33-32	14.8	4.7	3.8	0.3	0.9	52.7%	100.0%	0.0	60.7%	21.3%
0	Gus Etchison	PG	Sr	5'11"	32-5	13.2	8.8	1.4	2.1	1.2	53.1%	34.7%	3.2	66.1%	41.3%
13	Louis Bond	G	Fr	6'5"	24-2	14.0	4.9	1.9	0.5	0.9	51.2%	35.5%	1.3	84.6%	21.5%
32	Blake Daberkow	F	Sr	6'10"	32-0	8.0	3.3	1.6	0.4	0.6	54.1%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	25.9%
21	Quin Patterson	G	Jr	6'7"	24-0	8.5	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.3	44.3%	27.3%	1.4	66.7%	14.0%
3	Landen Birley	G	Fr	6'4"	9-1	3.9	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	6.7%
4	Jaedyn Brown	G	So	6'5"	3-0	6.0	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.3	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	17.7%
14	Kasen Carpenter	G	Sr	6'5"	7-0	1.6	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	31.8%
8	Trey Arland	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Idaho St

Against the spread

Season

14-16

Home

5-6

Road

7-8

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −5.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-13

Home

7-4

Road

8-7

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +4.8

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	Portland StAdjEM #145	N	L 78–85	+5.5	L−1.5	141.0	O163	106.1	115.6	73.5
Mar 7	N ArizonaAdjEM #329	N	W 73–65	−4.5	W+3.5	142.5	U138	110.3	98.2	66.2
Mar 2	Sacramento StAdjEM #280	A	L 65–83	−1.0	L−19.0	160.5	U148	92.9	118.7	69.9
Feb 28	Weber StAdjEM #203	H	L 73–83	−2.0	L−12.0	153.0	O156	107.3	122.0	68.1
Feb 21	Montana StAdjEM #130	H	W 91–76	+2.5	W+17.5	144.5	O167	125.6	104.9	72.5
Feb 19	MontanaAdjEM #207	H	W 73–69	+1.0	W+5.0	150.0	U142	107.7	101.8	67.8
Feb 14	IdahoAdjEM #156	A	L 69–99	+7.0	L−23.0	146.5	O168	95.1	136.5	72.5
Feb 12	E WashingtonAdjEM #189	A	L 75–88	+3.5	L−9.5	147.5	O163	114.0	133.7	65.8
Feb 7	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	H	L 61–69	+2.0	L−6.0	151.5	U130	94.3	106.6	64.7
Feb 5	N ArizonaAdjEM #329	H	L 73–79	−8.0	L−14.0	141.5	O152	123.0	133.1	59.4

Wyoming

Against the spread

Season

16-16

Home

9-8

Road

5-8

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +1.2

Covered 4 straightCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-16

Home

11-6

Road

4-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.3

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	Wichita StAdjEM #60	A	L 70–74	+5.5	W+1.5	148.0	U144	93.7	99.0	74.7
Mar 11	UNLVAdjEM #124	N	L 70–73	+3.5	W+0.5	153.0	U143	106.7	111.3	65.6
Mar 7	San José StAdjEM #282	A	W 88–78	−5.5	W+4.5	148.0	O166	146.0	129.4	60.3
Mar 3	NevadaAdjEM #71	H	W 83–73	+1.5	W+11.5	144.0	O156	125.2	110.1	66.3
Feb 28	Air ForceAdjEM #360	H	W 66–62	−21.5	L−17.5	146.5	U128	101.1	95.0	65.3
Feb 24	Boise StAdjEM #63	A	L 62–72	+8.5	L−1.5	146.0	U134	97.4	113.1	63.7
Feb 21	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	A	W 70–65	+8.5	W+13.5	144.5	U135	103.7	96.3	67.5
Feb 17	Fresno StAdjEM #169	H	W 92–82	−9.5	W+0.5	147.5	O174	140.9	125.6	65.3
Feb 14	Colorado StAdjEM #88	A	L 68–79	+3.5	L−7.5	138.5	O147	110.5	128.4	61.5
Feb 7	Utah StateAdjEM #24	H	L 83–85	+8.5	W+6.5	146.0	O168	122.6	125.6	67.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Idaho StWyoming

Efficiency

108.8

111.8

113.3

107.6

67.0

67.7

—

Shooting

51.8%

52.9%

53.6%

33.6%

33.0%

74.1%

74.3%

37.9%

35.4%

Ball control & glass

17.0%

16.3%

14.7%

16.8%

32.8%

34.1%

27.9%

28.0%

10.2%

8.3%

8.8%

10.9%

Style

41.9%

43.0%

41.5%

43.0%

9.3%

9.6%

47.0%

53.8%

35.8%

37.3%

Roster

3.16

2.57

6'5.6"

6'5"

86.1%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Idaho St

Returning minutes: 86.1%Returning production: 90.8%

Lost

Martin Kheil 27.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Trey Arland no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Wyoming

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Wyoming's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.