CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceG.B. Hodge Center, Spartanburg, SC

SC State

Efficiency #357

2025-26: 10-22 · 8-8 conf

SC Upstate

Efficiency #284

2025-26: 13-19 · 5-12 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · 6:30 PM ET

67.4

win 19%

Projected

77.6

win 81%

No line posted yet.

Model: UPST −10.2 · total 145.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: SC Upstate 68.5, SC State 69.3 → 69.5 possessions

+2.5

SC Upstate offense vs SC State defense

+0.3

SC State offense vs SC Upstate defense

−6.0

Projected total

145.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

SC Upstate offense vs SC State defense

+0.3

SC State offense vs SC Upstate defense

+6.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

SC Upstate by 10.2

10.2

SC State side ◂▸ SC Upstate side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +10.3 against +10.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SC Upstate.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SC State is the faster team (70.3, #82 of 365) and SC Upstate the slower (69.3, #128). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.0

model

Projected team totals

67.4 / 77.6

SC State / SC Upstate

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.3#98

SC State

68.5#171

SC Upstate

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSC State

Where SC State struggles: shooting

SC State shoots an effective 46.8% (#341); SC Upstate allows 51.0% (#156). Expect about 48.5%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageSC Upstate

Where SC Upstate struggles: ball control

SC Upstate turns it over on 18.2% of possessions (#283); SC State forces turnovers on 18.8% of opponent possessions (#57). Expect about 18.9%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversSC State

SC State turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.8% is worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions against SC State's offense.

ClashSC State

Style match: 3-point volume

SC State rarely shoots threes (33.3% of its shots); SC Upstate runs teams off the line (36.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.3% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseSC Upstate

SC Upstate's shot-blocking

SC Upstate ranks #39 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.5% of SC State's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

GlassSC Upstate

SC Upstate owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.1% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for SC Upstate's offense.

SC State has the ball

OffenseSC Upstate allowsvs D1 avg

46.8% #341

51.0% #156

-3.9 pt/100

20.8% #355

16.4% #194

-2.5 pt/100

31.4% #146

31.4% #224

+0.7 pt/100

41.1% #47

36.0% #211

+0.4 pt/100

66.8% #344

—

-0.5 pt/100

SC State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.8 pts/100

SC Upstate has the ball

OffenseSC State allowsvs D1 avg

48.3% #307

53.9% #296

-0.5 pt/100

18.2% #283

18.8% #57

-2.6 pt/100

29.2% #231

37.6% #362

+1.6 pt/100

32.8% #239

51.9% #364

+1.1 pt/100

68.1% #324

—

-0.4 pt/100

SC Upstate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

SC Stateoffense vsSC Upstatedefense

Share of shots by zone

SC State shoots

34.0

5.5

27.2

33.3

SC Upstate allows

42.0

6.0

15.7

36.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	52.9%#342	54.7%#56	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.2%#241	45.5%#309	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.8%#267	35.7%#96	38.0%
Three	34.0%#173	35.6%#289	33.7%

SC Upstateoffense vsSC Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

SC Upstate shoots

41.2

7.8

15.6

35.4

SC State allows

45.9

2.8

12.6

38.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.8%#303	60.2%#237	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#136	30.8%#18	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.5%#202	39.2%#208	38.0%
Three	31.4%#308	33.5%#155	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

SC State

−6.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#357 of 365

Off reb %

31.4%

#146

Def reb %

62.4%

#362

Turnover %

20.8%

#355

Forced TO %

18.8%

#57

FT rate

41.1%

#47

FT allowed

51.9%

#364

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−2.3

Ball security−2.7

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn+1.5

Foul shots allowed−4.3

SC Upstate

−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#289 of 365

Off reb %

29.2%

#231

Def reb %

68.6%

#224

Turnover %

18.2%

#283

Forced TO %

16.4%

#194

FT rate

32.8%

#239

FT allowed

36.0%

#211

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.2

SC Upstate has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.6 (#289 of 365) to SC State’s −6.0 (#357).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SC State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Florian Tenebay	G	Sr	6'6"	31-25	22.9	7.0	2.8	1.9	1.9	42.0%	25.0%	0.9	72.1%	22.3%
0	Noah Treadwell	G	Fr	6'5"	31-5	22.6	9.4	1.4	0.7	1.3	51.9%	35.3%	6.6	67.7%	25.3%
5	Owen Bronston Jr.	G	Jr	6'6"	27-17	21.1	10.3	2.6	0.6	0.6	49.0%	36.0%	6.1	76.9%	29.0%
4	Cameron Clark	F	Sr	6'10"	25-19	21.4	8.2	5.0	0.8	1.7	46.7%	—	0.0	61.9%	26.8%
30	Rayniel Wright	G	Jr	6'0"	32-4	16.3	3.3	1.6	1.8	2.0	40.0%	25.0%	0.3	50.0%	20.7%
22	James Morrow	G	Jr	6'8"	24-14	20.8	7.7	3.1	1.2	1.2	51.2%	33.3%	1.5	84.6%	21.5%
7	Derwin Hodge Jr.	F	Fr	6'10"	27-20	18.2	2.5	3.2	1.1	1.4	43.9%	—	0.0	38.5%	13.6%
55	Chris Parker	G	Jr	6'5"	25-2	18.2	7.0	4.8	0.6	0.6	42.8%	25.0%	0.2	79.0%	24.2%
15	Tim Okojie	C	Jr	7'1"	32-10	10.9	1.2	1.3	0.1	0.5	42.4%	—	0.0	33.3%	10.1%
32	Teon Tindal	C	Fr	6'7"	25-3	9.8	2.6	1.6	0.3	0.8	52.1%	—	0.0	46.7%	18.6%
14	Jamal Miles	G	So	6'4"	21-6	8.4	1.7	0.8	0.3	0.3	34.1%	14.3%	1.3	50.0%	17.8%
23	D'Shay Knights Wright	F	So	6'9"	12-5	14.4	3.1	2.9	0.6	0.9	43.5%	25.0%	0.3	58.8%	16.2%
2	Colin McKenzie	G	Sr	6'6"	6-1	16.0	2.7	1.8	0.3	1.7	38.1%	25.0%	1.3	—	17.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SC Upstate2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Carmelo Adkins	G	So	6'4"	32-15	29.9	13.5	4.9	1.6	2.0	47.2%	33.0%	5.9	80.7%	28.5%
1	Karmani Gregory	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	30.5	15.6	2.2	2.9	2.2	49.0%	32.8%	5.9	74.6%	31.8%
9	Mason Bendinger	G	Jr	6'4"	32-31	29.4	14.4	3.7	1.2	1.8	47.0%	31.1%	2.3	53.8%	32.3%
0	Tyler Smith	G	Jr	6'0"	31-16	22.9	4.4	2.7	2.8	1.9	40.9%	29.8%	1.5	67.6%	17.1%
2	Isaiah Skinner	G	Sr	6'5"	32-8	20.0	5.1	3.1	1.8	1.0	51.8%	34.9%	3.3	85.7%	16.2%
11	Learic Davis	F	Jr	6'6"	28-20	21.8	8.3	4.6	0.8	1.3	55.6%	32.8%	2.4	75.0%	21.9%
12	Jafeth Martinez	F	Jr	6'9"	31-20	18.3	4.6	5.1	0.2	0.7	67.6%	—	0.0	65.6%	12.6%
7	Coen Collier	C	Jr	7'1"	30-9	14.1	1.8	3.8	0.6	0.5	43.1%	22.2%	0.3	37.5%	10.3%
10	Breylin Garcia	F	Sr	6'6"	21-7	14.8	6.7	4.5	0.9	1.0	60.6%	—	0.0	55.6%	25.4%
6	Kanye Jones	G	Jr	6'5"	22-1	8.9	2.7	0.3	0.4	0.2	50.0%	26.3%	0.9	81.3%	16.7%
24	Chico Johnson	G	So	6'2"	10-0	8.2	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.3	47.7%	42.9%	0.7	50.0%	18.4%
8	Nic Book	F	So	6'8"	7-2	10.3	4.6	3.1	0.4	0.3	81.3%	—	0.0	100.0%	15.8%
21	CJ Rich	G	Jr	5'9"	4-1	11.0	3.3	1.0	1.3	0.8	78.6%	75.0%	1.0	66.7%	13.8%
5	TJ Lewis	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SC State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Florian Tenebay	G	Sr	6'6"	31-25	22.9	7.0	2.8	1.9	1.9	42.0%	25.0%	0.9	72.1%	22.3%
0	Noah Treadwell	G	Fr	6'5"	31-5	22.6	9.4	1.4	0.7	1.3	51.9%	35.3%	6.6	67.7%	25.3%
5	Owen Bronston Jr.	G	Jr	6'6"	27-17	21.1	10.3	2.6	0.6	0.6	49.0%	36.0%	6.1	76.9%	29.0%
4	Cameron Clark	F	Sr	6'10"	25-19	21.4	8.2	5.0	0.8	1.7	46.7%	—	0.0	61.9%	26.8%
30	Rayniel Wright	G	Jr	6'0"	32-4	16.3	3.3	1.6	1.8	2.0	40.0%	25.0%	0.3	50.0%	20.7%
22	James Morrow	G	Jr	6'8"	24-14	20.8	7.7	3.1	1.2	1.2	51.2%	33.3%	1.5	84.6%	21.5%
7	Derwin Hodge Jr.	F	Fr	6'10"	27-20	18.2	2.5	3.2	1.1	1.4	43.9%	—	0.0	38.5%	13.6%
55	Chris Parker	G	Jr	6'5"	25-2	18.2	7.0	4.8	0.6	0.6	42.8%	25.0%	0.2	79.0%	24.2%
15	Tim Okojie	C	Jr	7'1"	32-10	10.9	1.2	1.3	0.1	0.5	42.4%	—	0.0	33.3%	10.1%
32	Teon Tindal	C	Fr	6'7"	25-3	9.8	2.6	1.6	0.3	0.8	52.1%	—	0.0	46.7%	18.6%
14	Jamal Miles	G	So	6'4"	21-6	8.4	1.7	0.8	0.3	0.3	34.1%	14.3%	1.3	50.0%	17.8%
23	D'Shay Knights Wright	F	So	6'9"	12-5	14.4	3.1	2.9	0.6	0.9	43.5%	25.0%	0.3	58.8%	16.2%
2	Colin McKenzie	G	Sr	6'6"	6-1	16.0	2.7	1.8	0.3	1.7	38.1%	25.0%	1.3	—	17.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

SC State

Against the spread

Season

13-17

Home

5-4

Road

7-12

Last 10

4-6

avg cover +1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-15-1

Home

4-5

Road

9-9-1

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.5

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 13	HowardAdjEM #160	N	L 61–78	+15.5	L−1.5	146.0	U139	82.8	105.9	73.6
Mar 12	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	N	W 88–82	+8.5	W+14.5	144.5	O170	116.6	108.6	75.5
Mar 5	NC CentralAdjEM #346	A	W 80–64	+7.5	W+23.5	141.5	O144	114.6	91.7	69.8
Mar 2	Delaware StAdjEM #358	A	W 61–59	+3.0	W+5.0	134.5	U120	99.9	96.6	61.1
Feb 28	MD EasternAdjEM #345	A	L 57–69	+6.0	L−6.0	132.5	U126	85.9	104.0	66.3
Feb 25	Morgan StAdjEM #349	H	L 83–90	+1.5	L−5.5	154.5	O173	113.8	123.4	73.0
Feb 21	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	L 71–90	+10.0	L−9.0	140.5	O161	99.5	126.1	71.4
Feb 18	NC CentralAdjEM #346	H	W 85–72	+3.0	W+16.0	137.5	O157	127.4	107.9	66.7
Feb 16	Coppin StAdjEM #364	H	L 57–59	−5.0	L−7.0	139.0	U116	84.6	87.6	67.4
Feb 7	HowardAdjEM #160	A	L 57–85	+14.0	L−14.0	142.5	U142	75.9	113.2	75.1

SC Upstate

Against the spread

Season

13-16

Home

6-6

Road

7-9

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

13-15-1

Home

6-5-1

Road

7-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −2.4

Under 3 straightOver in 5 of 8 as an underdogOver in 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	N	L 64–65	−11.0	L−12.0	144.0	U129	99.1	100.7	64.6
Feb 28	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	H	W 71–61	−13.5	L−3.5	146.5	U132	101.0	86.8	70.3
Feb 26	RadfordAdjEM #245	A	L 59–71	+8.0	L−4.0	153.0	U130	87.6	105.4	67.4
Feb 21	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	H	W 76–74	+1.0	W+3.0	141.5	O150	118.0	114.9	64.4
Feb 19	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 64–68	+13.0	W+9.0	155.0	U132	95.3	101.2	67.2
Feb 14	LongwoodAdjEM #248	A	L 75–82 OT	+6.0	L−1.0	146.5	O157	89.6	98.0	83.7
Feb 12	High PointAdjEM #50	H	L 70–95	+14.0	L−11.0	154.5	O165	93.3	126.6	75.1
Feb 7	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	H	W 100–94 OT	+1.0	W+7.0	151.5	O194	129.9	122.1	77.0
Feb 4	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	A	L 67–76	+6.5	L−2.5	140.5	O143	99.2	112.5	67.6
Jan 29	LongwoodAdjEM #248	H	W 65–60	+1.5	W+6.5	147.5	U125	92.3	85.2	70.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SC StateSC Upstate

Efficiency

99.4

102.8

114.5

109.0

69.3

68.5

—

Shooting

46.8%

48.3%

44.8%

48.9%

34.0%

31.4%

66.8%

68.1%

41.1%

32.8%

Ball control & glass

20.8%

18.2%

18.8%

16.4%

31.4%

29.2%

37.6%

31.4%

10.8%

10.6%

9.6%

11.0%

Style

33.3%

35.6%

37.2%

46.2%

13.7%

14.5%

52.6%

46.0%

44.5%

35.4%

Roster

2.66

2.98

6'6.7"

6'4.5"

86.3%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

SC State

Returning minutes: 86.3%Returning production: 79.8%

Lost

Jayden Johnson 27.4 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

SC Upstate

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Dec 16	2025-26	SC Upstate 78 – 72 SC State

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.