CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceGill Coliseum, Corvallis, OR
CA Baptist
Efficiency #102
2025-26: 25-9 · 15-5 conf
@
Oregon St
Efficiency #219
2025-26: 17-16 · 10-10 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
69.7
win 50%
Projected
69.7
win 50%
No line posted yet.
Model: CBU −0.1 · total 139.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Oregon St 66.9, CA Baptist 67.4 → 66.0 possessions
−5.0
Oregon St offense vs CA Baptist defense
−3.8
CA Baptist offense vs Oregon St defense
0.0
Projected total
139.4
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Oregon St offense vs CA Baptist defense
−3.8
CA Baptist offense vs Oregon St defense
0.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
CA Baptist by 0.1
0.1
CA Baptist side ◂▸ Oregon St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to 0.0 against −0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Oregon St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, CA Baptist is the faster team (67.5, #223 of 365) and Oregon St the slower (66.2, #284). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.4
model
Projected team totals
69.7 / 69.7
CA Baptist / Oregon St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#256
CA Baptist
66.9#295
Oregon St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageOregon St
Where Oregon St struggles: shooting
Oregon St shoots an effective 50.5% (#216); CA Baptist allows 46.3% (#16). Expect about 48.3%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageCA Baptist
Where CA Baptist scores: the offensive glass
CA Baptist rebounds 37.5% of its own misses (#13); Oregon St lets opponents grab 32.1% of their own misses (#265). Expect about 36.2%, 5.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.
GlassOregon St
Oregon St gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.3% is worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions against Oregon St's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (CA Baptist's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect CA Baptist at about 34.8% of its shots from three, Oregon St about 38.3%.
ClashOregon St
Style clash: ball movement
Oregon St assists on 61.2% of its made baskets; CA Baptist breaks up passing offenses (assists on 45.5% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 53.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
ClashOregon St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Oregon St takes 44.3% of its shots from three; CA Baptist runs teams off the line (31.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
CA Baptist has the ball
OffenseOregon St allowsvs D1 avg
48.3% #308
50.3% #119
-3.1 pt/100
17.9% #267
15.3% #262
+0.3 pt/100
37.5% #13
32.1% #265
+3.5 pt/100
35.9% #154
35.1% #180
+0.1 pt/100
71.3% #230
—
-0.1 pt/100
CA Baptist net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.7 pts/100
Oregon St has the ball
OffenseCA Baptist allowsvs D1 avg
50.5% #216
46.3% #16
-4.3 pt/100
17.7% #253
17.0% #154
-0.8 pt/100
26.8% #303
27.2% #41
-2.5 pt/100
43.1% #20
36.6% #229
+0.6 pt/100
77.2% #30
—
+0.4 pt/100
Oregon St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
CA Baptistoffense vsOregon Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
CA Baptist shoots
Oregon St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.0%#35456.0%#8558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.5%#33642.5%#23739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.1%#3641.0%#27538.0%
Three33.4%#20032.9%#11633.7%
Oregon Stoffense vsCA Baptistdefense
Share of shots by zone
Oregon St shoots
CA Baptist allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.6%#25351.3%#958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.1%#26739.7%#18639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.0%#22038.4%#17438.0%
Three35.0%#11529.5%#533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
CA Baptist
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#69 of 365
Off reb %
37.5%
#13
Def reb %
72.8%
#41
Turnover %
17.9%
#267
Forced TO %
17.0%
#154
FT rate
35.9%
#154
FT allowed
36.6%
#229
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.3
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed−0.4
Oregon St
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#239 of 365
Off reb %
26.8%
#303
Def reb %
67.9%
#265
Turnover %
17.7%
#253
Forced TO %
15.3%
#262
FT rate
43.1%
#20
FT allowed
35.1%
#180
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+2.1
Foul shots allowed0.0

CA Baptist has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#69 of 365) to Oregon St’s −1.1 (#239).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

CA Baptist2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
33Martel WilliamsGSr6'3"33-3333.212.84.81.51.744.6%32.7%3.377.6%26.4%
3Jayden JacksonGSr6'4"28-2629.09.03.21.71.443.2%34.6%5.675.0%22.7%
8Jonathan GrimanFJr6'11"31-1923.36.15.90.51.157.9%0.0%0.252.0%16.2%
11Jordan MullerGFr6'0"34-920.64.41.01.81.441.8%35.2%2.775.6%17.7%
42Bradey HenigeFSo7'0"33-1520.24.95.50.51.053.5%—0.055.8%16.2%
25Thomas NdongFJr6'10"32-1917.54.96.50.41.057.2%20.0%0.262.0%17.5%
12Devon MalcolmFSr6'5"33-1513.65.83.40.50.948.0%30.3%1.061.8%28.5%
5Miles DanielsGSr6'2"21-011.32.61.50.50.848.0%35.0%1.046.7%18.4%
6Rene D'AmelioFFr6'9"18-010.62.63.00.20.552.9%25.0%0.452.4%16.7%
10Monty BowserGSr6'6"13-18.32.11.40.20.243.8%29.4%1.375.0%16.4%
35Nate GarciaCFr7'0"15-06.62.61.20.10.452.9%—0.084.0%20.5%
2Jalen DollarGSo5'10"7-05.12.10.30.10.0100.0%80.0%0.775.0%12.4%
4Chase Mayo HarmonGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Mouhamadou DioumFSo6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24OJ BlanksonGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
CA BaptistOregon St
Efficiency
107.2
107.7
103.5
109.8
67.4
66.9
—
—
Shooting
48.3%
50.5%
47.4%
48.8%
33.4%
35.0%
71.3%
77.2%
35.9%
43.1%
Ball control & glass
17.9%
17.7%
17.0%
15.3%
37.5%
26.8%
27.2%
32.1%
9.9%
10.7%
9.6%
9.3%
Style
32.0%
44.3%
48.4%
34.1%
10.9%
9.2%
39.9%
61.2%
30.7%
34.1%
Roster
3.00
2.39
6'6"
6'6"
82.6%
85.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
CA Baptist
Returning minutes: 82.6%Returning production: 74.2%
Lost
  • Dominique Daniels Jr. 35.2 mpg, 22.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • OJ Blankson no D1 minutes last season
  • Chase Mayo Harmon no D1 minutes last season
  • Mouhamadou Dioum no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Oregon St
Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 82.5%
Lost
  • Jorge Diaz Graham 17.4 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Yaak Yaak 11.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
Added
  • Gavin Marrs no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 292025-26CA Baptist 75 – 69 Oregon St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.