CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceRupp Arena, Lexington, KY
James Madison
Efficiency #206
2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf
@
Kentucky
Efficiency #27
2025-26: 22-14 · 12-9 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
68.2
win 12%
Projected
82.0
win 88%
No line posted yet.
Model: UK −13.8 · total 150.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Kentucky 68.9, James Madison 67.4 → 67.9 possessions
−0.8
Kentucky offense vs James Madison defense
+6.3
James Madison offense vs Kentucky defense
−3.6
Projected total
150.2
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Kentucky offense vs James Madison defense
+6.3
James Madison offense vs Kentucky defense
+3.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Kentucky by 13.8
13.8
James Madison side ◂▸ Kentucky side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.1 against a projected 150.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kentucky.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kentucky is the faster team (69.7, #106 of 365) and James Madison the slower (67.0, #242). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.2
model
Projected team totals
68.2 / 82.0
James Madison / Kentucky
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#259
James Madison
68.9#130
Kentucky
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageKentucky
Where Kentucky scores: ball control
Kentucky turns it over on 15.4% of possessions (#96); James Madison forces turnovers on 12.8% of opponent possessions (#360). Expect about 13.4%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseKentucky
Kentucky's shot-blocking
Kentucky ranks #34 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.3% of James Madison's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
ClashKentucky
Style clash: ball movement
Kentucky assists on 56.9% of its made baskets; James Madison breaks up passing offenses (assists on 45.5% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 50.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
James Madison has the ball
OffenseKentucky allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #97
48.9% #63
-0.2 pt/100
17.3% #226
15.5% #249
+0.6 pt/100
30.6% #175
30.0% #158
-0.0 pt/100
35.9% #153
36.4% #223
+0.2 pt/100
70.3% #263
—
-0.2 pt/100
James Madison net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100
Kentucky has the ball
OffenseJames Madison allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #87
49.0% #66
+0.0 pt/100
15.4% #96
12.8% #360
+4.1 pt/100
33.2% #84
29.5% #134
+0.9 pt/100
37.4% #119
40.8% #310
+0.6 pt/100
72.7% #179
—
+0.0 pt/100
Kentucky net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersJames Madisonoffense vsKentuckydefense
Share of shots by zone
James Madison shoots
40.6
6.7
11.1
41.6
Kentucky allows
33.9
7.6
18.8
39.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.1%#91 | 57.3%#124 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.1%#118 | 42.8%#246 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.2%#352 | 39.3%#211 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.4%#94 | 31.8%#55 | 33.7% |
Kentuckyoffense vsJames Madisondefense
Share of shots by zone
Kentucky shoots
37.5
6.8
17.0
38.7
James Madison allows
37.1
6.6
18.3
38.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.1%#35 | 56.6%#103 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.4%#58 | 37.6%#128 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.5%#322 | 38.5%#182 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.2%#158 | 32.7%#101 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersJames Madison
−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#327 of 365
Off reb %
30.6%
#175
Def reb %
70.5%
#134
Turnover %
17.3%
#226
Forced TO %
12.8%
#360
FT rate
35.9%
#153
FT allowed
40.8%
#310
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed−1.4
Kentucky
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#119 of 365
Off reb %
33.2%
#84
Def reb %
70.0%
#158
Turnover %
15.4%
#96
Forced TO %
15.5%
#249
FT rate
37.4%
#119
FT allowed
36.4%
#223
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Kentucky has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#119 of 365) to James Madison’s −3.8 (#327).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
James Madison2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cliff Davis | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-33 | 31.3 | 15.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 55.1% | 37.8% | 7.9 | 87.1% | 27.5% | |
| 2 | Bradley Douglas | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-18 | 27.6 | 12.1 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 50.2% | 35.6% | 4.7 | 73.3% | 29.2% | |
| 3 | Eddie Ricks III | F | Jr | 6'7" | 32-20 | 26.8 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 53.8% | 27.8% | 1.7 | 78.7% | 15.3% | |
| 13 | Preston Fowler | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-14 | 23.1 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 49.1% | 29.8% | 3.7 | 72.3% | 16.9% | |
| 33 | Gabe Newhof | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 18.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 61.3% | — | 0.0 | 53.5% | 23.9% | |
| 0 | Christian Brown | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-0 | 13.3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 57.0% | 33.3% | 0.1 | 56.8% | 15.7% | |
| 12 | Kose Egbule | G | Sr | 6'2" | 22-15 | 16.2 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 41.5% | 31.4% | 1.6 | 69.7% | 20.0% | |
| 1 | Paul Jones III | G | So | 6'4" | 20-0 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 41.2% | 29.5% | 2.2 | 64.3% | 20.2% | |
| 11 | Paul Lewis | G | Jr | 6'2" | 14-1 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 28.6% | 25.0% | 1.1 | 78.6% | 20.8% | |
| 5 | Justin Taylor | G | Sr | 6'6" | 18-1 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 45.5% | 66.7% | 0.2 | 57.1% | 9.0% | |
| 23 | Ike Cornish | G | Sr | 6'6" | 6-0 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 56.7% | 35.7% | 2.3 | 44.4% | 23.5% | |
| 4 | Chance Lundy | G | Sr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Josh Stephen | G | Sr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Kentucky2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Milan Momcilovicat Iowa State | F | Sr | 6'9" | 37-37 | 30.4 | 16.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 67.2% | 48.7% | 7.5 | 87.8% | 25.0% | |
| 10 | Alex Wilkinsat Furman | G | So | 6'6" | 35-35 | 29.7 | 17.8 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 52.8% | 32.8% | 5.7 | 82.4% | 39.2% | |
| 5 | Zoom Dialloat Washington | G | Jr | 6'6" | 33-29 | 29.6 | 15.7 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 51.7% | 31.5% | 2.2 | 82.5% | 33.0% | |
| 21 | Justin McBrideat James Madison | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-30 | 27.1 | 15.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 54.9% | 40.0% | 3.1 | 78.2% | 32.4% | |
| 1 | Jerone Mortonat Washington St | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-29 | 24.9 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 51.8% | 38.8% | 2.5 | 82.0% | 18.8% | |
| 24 | Malachi Moreno | C | So | 7'0" | 36-30 | 22.6 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 58.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 69.8% | 19.1% | |
| 11 | Franck Kepnangat Washington | C | Sr | 7'0" | 27-25 | 22.9 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 51.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 68.9% | 17.2% | |
| 3 | Kam Williams | G | Jr | 6'7" | 24-7 | 18.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 57.9% | 35.9% | 3.3 | 95.5% | 17.0% | |
| 9 | Trent Noah | F | Jr | 6'6" | 26-3 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 49.2% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 82.6% | 16.2% | |
| 2 | Braydon Hawthorne | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Reece Potter | F | Sr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | Mason Williams | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 19 | Ousmane N'Diaye | F | — | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Zyon Hawthorne | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Zoom Diallo (from Washington), Franck Kepnang (from Washington), Justin McBride (from James Madison), Milan Momcilovic (from Iowa State), Jerone Morton (from Washington St), Alex Wilkins (from Furman)
James Madison2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cliff Davis | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-33 | 31.3 | 15.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 55.1% | 37.8% | 7.9 | 87.1% | 27.5% | |
| 2 | Bradley Douglas | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-18 | 27.6 | 12.1 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 50.2% | 35.6% | 4.7 | 73.3% | 29.2% | |
| 3 | Eddie Ricks III | F | Jr | 6'7" | 32-20 | 26.8 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 53.8% | 27.8% | 1.7 | 78.7% | 15.3% | |
| 13 | Preston Fowler | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-14 | 23.1 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 49.1% | 29.8% | 3.7 | 72.3% | 16.9% | |
| 33 | Gabe Newhof | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 18.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 61.3% | — | 0.0 | 53.5% | 23.9% | |
| 0 | Christian Brown | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-0 | 13.3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 57.0% | 33.3% | 0.1 | 56.8% | 15.7% | |
| 12 | Kose Egbule | G | Sr | 6'2" | 22-15 | 16.2 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 41.5% | 31.4% | 1.6 | 69.7% | 20.0% | |
| 1 | Paul Jones III | G | So | 6'4" | 20-0 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 41.2% | 29.5% | 2.2 | 64.3% | 20.2% | |
| 11 | Paul Lewis | G | Jr | 6'2" | 14-1 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 28.6% | 25.0% | 1.1 | 78.6% | 20.8% | |
| 5 | Justin Taylor | G | Sr | 6'6" | 18-1 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 45.5% | 66.7% | 0.2 | 57.1% | 9.0% | |
| 23 | Ike Cornish | G | Sr | 6'6" | 6-0 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 56.7% | 35.7% | 2.3 | 44.4% | 23.5% | |
| 4 | Chance Lundy | G | Sr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Josh Stephen | G | Sr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26James Madison
Against the spread
Season
13-19
Home
5-9
Road
6-9
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +1.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
15-17
Home
4-10
Road
8-7
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +2.2
Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | Southern Miss | N | L 80–86 | −2.0 | L−8.0 | 143.5 | O166 | 111.1 | 119.4 | 72.0 |
| Mar 4 | Louisiana | N | W 87–72 | −6.5 | W+8.5 | 135.0 | O159 | 122.3 | 101.2 | 71.2 |
| Feb 27 | Coastal | H | L 68–69 | −6.0 | L−7.0 | 142.0 | U137 | 107.0 | 108.6 | 63.5 |
| Feb 25 | GA Southern | H | W 82–66 | −5.5 | W+10.5 | 153.5 | U148 | 116.4 | 93.7 | 70.4 |
| Feb 21 | Georgia St | A | W 80–65 | −2.5 | W+12.5 | 142.5 | O145 | 119.4 | 97.0 | 67.0 |
| Feb 18 | Coastal | A | W 67–65 | −1.0 | W+1.0 | 141.5 | U132 | 102.2 | 99.1 | 65.6 |
| Feb 14 | App State | H | W 69–58 | +1.5 | W+12.5 | 135.0 | U127 | 112.7 | 94.7 | 61.2 |
| Feb 12 | Georgia St | H | W 81–79 OT | −6.0 | L−4.0 | 144.0 | O160 | 109.5 | 106.8 | 74.0 |
| Feb 7 | Toledo | H | W 73–71 | +1.0 | W+3.0 | 152.0 | U144 | 109.6 | 106.6 | 66.6 |
| Feb 4 | Louisiana | H | L 61–64 | −9.5 | L−12.5 | 132.0 | U125 | 107.7 | 113.0 | 56.6 |
Kentucky
Against the spread
Season
18-18
Home
9-9
Road
5-5
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −0.8
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-18-1
Home
10-8
Road
4-5-1
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.5
Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #2Iowa State | N | L 63–82 | +4.5 | L−14.5 | 146.5 | U145 | 91.0 | 118.4 | 69.2 |
| Mar 20 | #10Santa Clara | N | W 89–84 OT | −3.5 | W+1.5 | 157.5 | O173 | 119.3 | 112.6 | 74.6 |
| Mar 13 | #4Florida | N | L 63–71 | +10.0 | W+2.0 | 160.5 | U134 | 86.2 | 97.1 | 73.1 |
| Mar 12 | Missouri | N | W 78–72 | −3.5 | W+2.5 | 149.5 | O150 | 113.2 | 104.5 | 68.9 |
| Mar 11 | LSU | N | W 87–82 | −9.0 | L−4.0 | 151.5 | O169 | 123.9 | 116.8 | 70.2 |
| Mar 7 | #5Florida | H | L 77–84 | +5.5 | L−1.5 | 162.0 | U161 | 107.6 | 117.3 | 71.6 |
| Mar 3 | Texas A&M | A | L 85–96 | +1.5 | L−9.5 | 162.0 | O181 | 112.7 | 127.3 | 75.4 |
| Feb 28 | #25Vanderbilt | H | W 91–77 | −1.0 | W+13.0 | 157.5 | O168 | 133.7 | 113.2 | 68.0 |
| Feb 24 | South Carolina | A | W 72–63 | −7.5 | W+1.5 | 151.0 | U135 | 100.3 | 87.7 | 71.8 |
| Feb 21 | Auburn | A | L 74–75 | +2.5 | W+1.5 | 162.5 | U149 | 104.6 | 106.0 | 70.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeJames MadisonKentucky
Efficiency
109.2
115.6
110.7
102.5
67.4
68.9
—
—
Shooting
53.1%
53.3%
53.2%
54.7%
35.4%
34.2%
70.3%
72.7%
35.9%
37.4%
Ball control & glass
17.3%
15.4%
12.8%
15.5%
30.6%
33.2%
29.5%
30.0%
9.5%
9.7%
11.1%
8.5%
Style
42.5%
39.7%
43.8%
44.7%
13.9%
19.2%
48.3%
56.9%
34.8%
34.9%
Roster
3.09
3.22
6'4.9"
6'7.8"
83.4%
21.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputJames Madison
Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.2%
Lost
- Justin McBride 25.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
- Elijah Wilborn 8.0 mpg, 2.2 ppg · transferred to Merrimack
Added
- Josh Stephen no D1 minutes last season
- Chance Lundy no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Kentucky
Returning minutes: 21.4%Returning production: 21.9%
Lost
- Otega Oweh 32.7 mpg, 18.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Denzel Aberdeen 30.6 mpg, 13.5 ppg · transferred to Florida
- Collin Chandler 27.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mouhamed Dioubate 18.6 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brandon Garrison 16.2 mpg, 4.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Andrija Jelavic 14.0 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Milan Momcilovic from Iowa State · 30.4 mpg, 16.9 ppg last season
- Alex Wilkins from Furman · 29.7 mpg, 17.8 ppg last season
- Zoom Diallo from Washington · 29.6 mpg, 15.7 ppg last season
- Justin McBride from James Madison · 25.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg last season
- Jerone Morton from Washington St · 24.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg last season
- Franck Kepnang from Washington · 18.8 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.