CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceWorthen Arena, Muncie, IN
Indiana St
Efficiency #213
2025-26: 11-21 · 4-17 conf
@
Ball State
Efficiency #295
2025-26: 12-19 · 7-11 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
68.9
win 49%
Projected
69.3
win 51%
No line posted yet.
Model: BALL −0.4 · total 138.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Ball State 65.9, Indiana St 68.8 → 66.4 possessions
−4.1
Ball State offense vs Indiana St defense
−4.7
Indiana St offense vs Ball State defense
−1.2
Projected total
138.2
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Ball State offense vs Indiana St defense
−4.7
Indiana St offense vs Ball State defense
+1.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Ball State by 0.4
0.4
Indiana St side ◂▸ Ball State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +0.3 against +0.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Ball State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Indiana St is the faster team (68.3, #183 of 365) and Ball State the slower (65.3, #321). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.2
model
Projected team totals
68.9 / 69.3
Indiana St / Ball State
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.8#133
Indiana St
65.9#344
Ball State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageBall State
Where Ball State struggles: shooting
Ball State shoots an effective 47.0% (#336); Indiana St allows 50.2% (#110). Expect about 48.3%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageIndiana St
Where Indiana St struggles: ball control
Indiana St turns it over on 19.5% of possessions (#338); Ball State forces turnovers on 18.7% of opponent possessions (#63). Expect about 19.5%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Indiana St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Indiana St at about 45.2% of its shots from three, Ball State about 36.1%.
TurnoversBall State
Ball State protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Ball State's offense.
GlassIndiana St
Indiana St gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.8% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Indiana St's offense.
Indiana St has the ball
OffenseBall State allowsvs D1 avg
52.8% #110
52.7% #253
+2.3 pt/100
19.5% #338
18.7% #63
-3.4 pt/100
26.2% #317
31.0% #204
-1.6 pt/100
27.4% #349
32.1% #106
-0.7 pt/100
67.8% #329
—
-0.4 pt/100
Indiana St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.8 pts/100
Ball State has the ball
OffenseIndiana St allowsvs D1 avg
47.0% #336
50.2% #110
-4.3 pt/100
16.2% #152
14.9% #301
+1.9 pt/100
27.1% #290
31.8% #245
-1.0 pt/100
31.6% #263
28.7% #39
-0.7 pt/100
71.0% #240
—
-0.1 pt/100
Ball State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Indiana Stoffense vsBall Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Indiana St shoots
Ball State allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.9%#5461.4%#28058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.0%#34942.3%#23539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.9%#3937.9%#15838.0%
Three31.5%#30534.8%#23933.7%
Ball Stateoffense vsIndiana Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Ball State shoots
Indiana St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim52.7%#34456.4%#9458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.2%#21844.2%#27239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)30.6%#35047.3%#36338.0%
Three31.4%#31231.2%#3733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Indiana St
−5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#346 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#317
Def reb %
68.2%
#245
Turnover %
19.5%
#338
Forced TO %
14.9%
#301
FT rate
27.4%
#349
FT allowed
28.7%
#39
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−1.9
Forcing turnovers−1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed+1.7
Ball State
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#162 of 365
Off reb %
27.1%
#290
Def reb %
69.0%
#204
Turnover %
16.2%
#152
Forced TO %
18.7%
#63
FT rate
31.6%
#263
FT allowed
32.1%
#106
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+0.8

Ball State has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#162 of 365) to Indiana St’s −5.1 (#346).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Indiana St2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
23Ian ScottFSr6'7"32-3230.013.56.52.62.166.9%38.8%1.572.4%23.1%
8Camp WagnerGJr6'6"32-2628.811.94.41.91.749.4%34.3%7.491.5%26.3%
30Xavier HallGSr6'0"32-3127.77.62.14.21.748.1%23.6%2.875.0%19.0%
0Sterling YoungGSr6'1"30-2423.410.01.51.81.648.7%34.3%4.786.4%27.7%
4Bruno AlocenGSo6'6"32-921.36.32.91.51.148.5%30.3%3.880.0%19.5%
10Enel St. BernardFJr6'6"31-018.25.95.50.90.966.9%0.0%0.139.4%18.4%
35Derek VorstCJr6'10"22-1320.47.93.91.30.959.1%42.1%0.953.8%21.8%
11Markus HardingCSr6'10"22-1620.47.33.50.82.056.4%34.1%2.052.4%24.1%
7Hunter HardingCSo7'1"13-37.21.81.20.50.588.5%60.0%0.433.3%13.1%
13Cooper BeanGSo6'3"16-04.91.40.30.60.461.1%33.3%0.80.0%17.5%
2Jayan WalkerGSo6'6"11-07.12.51.50.50.852.3%27.3%1.080.0%23.6%
9Sivert Waerstad NordheimGFr6'6"18-04.21.60.50.10.138.7%16.7%0.780.0%25.9%
5Zyair GreeneGSr6'3"4-07.32.00.80.00.035.0%12.5%2.050.0%20.3%
12Caden HuttenlockerGJr6'2"9-02.20.70.20.10.030.0%25.0%0.9—27.0%
21Martin KaupangerGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Indiana StBall State
Efficiency
106.3
101.8
108.1
108.8
68.8
65.9
—
—
Shooting
52.8%
47.0%
57.4%
47.0%
31.5%
31.4%
67.8%
71.0%
27.4%
31.6%
Ball control & glass
19.5%
16.2%
14.9%
18.7%
26.2%
27.1%
31.8%
31.0%
11.4%
8.1%
13.4%
10.9%
Style
45.2%
39.4%
48.3%
45.4%
12.2%
10.8%
64.9%
53.6%
33.9%
34.8%
Roster
3.33
3.66
6'5.3"
6'4.7"
91.7%
16.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Indiana St
Returning minutes: 91.7%Returning production: 93.1%
Lost
  • Jo Van Buggenhout 16.9 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart
Added
  • Martin Kaupanger no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 92% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Ball State
Returning minutes: 16.6%Returning production: 13.1%
Lost
  • Armoni Zeigler 32.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Boston College
  • Davion Hill 26.9 mpg, 14.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Elmore James IV 23.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Devon Barnes 20.9 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Preston Copeland 18.1 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Juwan Maxey 13.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Sean Blake from Vermont · 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
  • Zaon Collins from Fresno St · 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
  • Javion Guy-King from C Arkansas · 21.1 mpg, 9.2 ppg last season
  • K'Jei Parker from UMass · 20.8 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
  • Babatunde Durodola from Temple · 19.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
  • Trey Lewis from W Michigan · 17.6 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season

Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 222025-26Ball State 52 – 70 Indiana St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.