CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +0.3 against +0.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Ball State.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Indiana St is the faster team (68.3, #183 of 365) and Ball State the slower (65.3, #321). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.9%#54 | 61.4%#280 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.0%#349 | 42.3%#235 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.9%#39 | 37.9%#158 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.5%#305 | 34.8%#239 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 52.7%#344 | 56.4%#94 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.2%#218 | 44.2%#272 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.6%#350 | 47.3%#363 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.4%#312 | 31.2%#37 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersBall State has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#162 of 365) to Indiana St’s −5.1 (#346).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Ian Scott | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 30.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 66.9% | 38.8% | 1.5 | 72.4% | 23.1% | |
| 8 | Camp Wagner | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-26 | 28.8 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 49.4% | 34.3% | 7.4 | 91.5% | 26.3% | |
| 30 | Xavier Hall | G | Sr | 6'0" | 32-31 | 27.7 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 48.1% | 23.6% | 2.8 | 75.0% | 19.0% | |
| 0 | Sterling Young | G | Sr | 6'1" | 30-24 | 23.4 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 48.7% | 34.3% | 4.7 | 86.4% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Bruno Alocen | G | So | 6'6" | 32-9 | 21.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 48.5% | 30.3% | 3.8 | 80.0% | 19.5% | |
| 10 | Enel St. Bernard | F | Jr | 6'6" | 31-0 | 18.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 66.9% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 39.4% | 18.4% | |
| 35 | Derek Vorst | C | Jr | 6'10" | 22-13 | 20.4 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 59.1% | 42.1% | 0.9 | 53.8% | 21.8% | |
| 11 | Markus Harding | C | Sr | 6'10" | 22-16 | 20.4 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 56.4% | 34.1% | 2.0 | 52.4% | 24.1% | |
| 7 | Hunter Harding | C | So | 7'1" | 13-3 | 7.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 88.5% | 60.0% | 0.4 | 33.3% | 13.1% | |
| 13 | Cooper Bean | G | So | 6'3" | 16-0 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 61.1% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 0.0% | 17.5% | |
| 2 | Jayan Walker | G | So | 6'6" | 11-0 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 52.3% | 27.3% | 1.0 | 80.0% | 23.6% | |
| 9 | Sivert Waerstad Nordheim | G | Fr | 6'6" | 18-0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 38.7% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 80.0% | 25.9% | |
| 5 | Zyair Greene | G | Sr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.0% | 12.5% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 20.3% | |
| 12 | Caden Huttenlocker | G | Jr | 6'2" | 9-0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 30.0% | 25.0% | 0.9 | — | 27.0% | |
| 21 | Martin Kaupanger | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Mason Jones | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-30 | 30.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 48.0% | 36.9% | 2.1 | 40.9% | 10.1% | |
| 0 | Sean Blakeat Vermont | G | Jr | 6'2" | 34-27 | 28.6 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 50.4% | 35.2% | 1.6 | 69.3% | 25.0% | |
| 55 | Zaon Collinsat Fresno St | G | Sr | 6'1" | 26-24 | 30.7 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 49.8% | 30.9% | 2.1 | 71.3% | 25.6% | |
| 2 | Javion Guy-Kingat C Arkansas | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-20 | 22.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 52.0% | 34.1% | 4.2 | 69.7% | 26.1% | |
| 5 | K'Jei Parkerat UMass | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-6 | 20.8 | 10.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 56.7% | 40.8% | 4.8 | 90.0% | 27.3% | |
| 11 | Babatunde Durodolaat Temple | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-9 | 19.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 49.5% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 75.8% | 16.8% | |
| 1 | Trey Lewisat W Michigan | G | Sr | 6'6" | 31-11 | 17.6 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 55.2% | 38.5% | 4.4 | 74.3% | 24.5% | |
| 7 | Jaden Smithat Saint Joseph's | C | Jr | 6'11" | 36-1 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 47.1% | 18.2% | 0.3 | 69.4% | 21.1% | |
| 20 | Joey Hart | G | Sr | 6'5" | 4-3 | 19.3 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 63.6% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 100.0% | 20.5% | |
| 4 | Jazz Henderson Jr.at Texas Tech | G | Jr | 5'11" | 12-0 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 41.7% | 50.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 3 | Aaron Fineat Purdue | G | Jr | 6'2" | 9-0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 34.4% | |
| 25 | Kai Mcgrew | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Kamden McGilveary | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Kijani Wright | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Ian Scott | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 30.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 66.9% | 38.8% | 1.5 | 72.4% | 23.1% | |
| 8 | Camp Wagner | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-26 | 28.8 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 49.4% | 34.3% | 7.4 | 91.5% | 26.3% | |
| 30 | Xavier Hall | G | Sr | 6'0" | 32-31 | 27.7 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 48.1% | 23.6% | 2.8 | 75.0% | 19.0% | |
| 0 | Sterling Young | G | Sr | 6'1" | 30-24 | 23.4 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 48.7% | 34.3% | 4.7 | 86.4% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Bruno Alocen | G | So | 6'6" | 32-9 | 21.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 48.5% | 30.3% | 3.8 | 80.0% | 19.5% | |
| 10 | Enel St. Bernard | F | Jr | 6'6" | 31-0 | 18.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 66.9% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 39.4% | 18.4% | |
| 35 | Derek Vorst | C | Jr | 6'10" | 22-13 | 20.4 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 59.1% | 42.1% | 0.9 | 53.8% | 21.8% | |
| 11 | Markus Harding | C | Sr | 6'10" | 22-16 | 20.4 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 56.4% | 34.1% | 2.0 | 52.4% | 24.1% | |
| 7 | Hunter Harding | C | So | 7'1" | 13-3 | 7.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 88.5% | 60.0% | 0.4 | 33.3% | 13.1% | |
| 13 | Cooper Bean | G | So | 6'3" | 16-0 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 61.1% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 0.0% | 17.5% | |
| 2 | Jayan Walker | G | So | 6'6" | 11-0 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 52.3% | 27.3% | 1.0 | 80.0% | 23.6% | |
| 9 | Sivert Waerstad Nordheim | G | Fr | 6'6" | 18-0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 38.7% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 80.0% | 25.9% | |
| 5 | Zyair Greene | G | Sr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.0% | 12.5% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 20.3% | |
| 12 | Caden Huttenlocker | G | Jr | 6'2" | 9-0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 30.0% | 25.0% | 0.9 | — | 27.0% | |
| 21 | Martin Kaupanger | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | Valparaiso | N | L 62–63 | +2.5 | W+1.5 | 142.0 | U125 | 103.9 | 105.6 | 59.7 |
| Mar 1 | UIC | H | W 79–63 | +4.0 | W+20.0 | 144.0 | U142 | 117.0 | 93.3 | 67.5 |
| Feb 25 | S Illinois | A | L 55–66 | +8.0 | L−3.0 | 149.0 | U121 | 77.8 | 93.4 | 70.7 |
| Feb 21 | Belmont | A | L 70–87 | +13.0 | L−4.0 | 156.0 | O157 | 95.9 | 119.2 | 73.0 |
| Feb 18 | Northern Iowa | H | L 60–81 | +5.0 | L−16.0 | 135.5 | O141 | 92.3 | 124.6 | 65.0 |
| Feb 15 | Valparaiso | A | L 75–76 | +5.0 | W+4.0 | 145.0 | O151 | 122.8 | 124.4 | 61.1 |
| Feb 12 | Murray St | H | L 72–74 | +3.5 | W+1.5 | 164.0 | U146 | 110.9 | 114.0 | 64.9 |
| Feb 9 | S Illinois | H | L 65–80 | +1.5 | L−13.5 | 147.5 | U145 | 87.1 | 107.2 | 74.7 |
| Feb 3 | Evansville | A | W 84–63 | −1.0 | W+20.0 | 145.0 | O147 | 134.0 | 100.5 | 62.7 |
| Jan 31 | Valparaiso | H | L 72–76 OT | −2.5 | L−6.5 | 145.0 | O148 | 101.2 | 106.8 | 71.2 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | C Michigan | H | W 85–69 | −2.0 | W+14.0 | 135.0 | O154 | 125.8 | 102.1 | 67.6 |
| Mar 3 | W Michigan | A | W 74–71 OT | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 138.5 | O145 | 103.2 | 99.0 | 71.7 |
| Feb 28 | N Illinois | A | W 79–43 | +1.5 | W+37.5 | 133.5 | U122 | 125.7 | 68.4 | 62.8 |
| Feb 24 | UMass | H | W 74–73 OT | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 143.5 | O147 | 100.6 | 99.3 | 73.5 |
| Feb 20 | Akron | H | L 65–78 | +14.0 | W+1.0 | 147.5 | U143 | 96.7 | 116.1 | 67.2 |
| Feb 17 | Ohio | A | L 57–69 | +9.5 | L−2.5 | 144.5 | U126 | 95.3 | 115.4 | 59.8 |
| Feb 14 | Kent State | H | L 68–75 | +8.0 | W+1.0 | 143.0 | P143 | 93.7 | 103.3 | 72.6 |
| Feb 11 | Buffalo | H | L 53–63 | −1.0 | L−11.0 | 141.0 | U116 | 89.6 | 106.5 | 59.2 |
| Feb 7 | UL Monroe | A | W 73–68 | −4.5 | W+0.5 | 143.5 | U141 | 105.3 | 98.1 | 69.3 |
| Feb 3 | Bowling Green | A | L 52–77 | +11.0 | L−14.0 | 138.0 | U129 | 83.1 | 123.0 | 62.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Jo Van Buggenhout 16.9 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart
- Martin Kaupanger no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 92% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
- Armoni Zeigler 32.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Boston College
- Davion Hill 26.9 mpg, 14.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elmore James IV 23.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Devon Barnes 20.9 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Preston Copeland 18.1 mpg, 4.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Juwan Maxey 13.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Sean Blake from Vermont · 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Zaon Collins from Fresno St · 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
- Javion Guy-King from C Arkansas · 21.1 mpg, 9.2 ppg last season
- K'Jei Parker from UMass · 20.8 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Babatunde Durodola from Temple · 19.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
- Trey Lewis from W Michigan · 17.6 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 22 | 2025-26 | Ball State 52 – 70 Indiana St |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.