CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceAddition Financial Arena, Orlando, FL

Yale

Efficiency #57

2025-26: 24-7 · 12-4 conf

UCF

Efficiency #70

2025-26: 21-12 · 10-10 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

76.3

win 40%

Projected

79.2

win 60%

No line posted yet.

Model: UCF −2.9 · total 155.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UCF 69.6, Yale 66.6 → 67.8 possessions

−1.0

UCF offense vs Yale defense

+3.6

Yale offense vs UCF defense

+4.6

Projected total

155.5

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UCF offense vs Yale defense

+3.6

Yale offense vs UCF defense

−4.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

UCF by 2.9

2.9

Yale side ◂▸ UCF side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.4 against a projected 155.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UCF.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UCF is the faster team (70.6, #70 of 365) and Yale the slower (65.6, #315). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

155.5

model

Projected team totals

76.3 / 79.2

Yale / UCF

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.6#316

Yale

69.6#78

UCF

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageYale

Where Yale scores: shooting

Yale shoots an effective 55.6% (#26); UCF allows 52.1% (#221). Expect about 54.2%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.2 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversYale

Yale protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.5% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for Yale's offense.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

UCF averages 70.6 possessions per 40, Yale 65.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (UCF, Yale) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Yale at about 36.7% of its shots from three, UCF about 39.2%.

AdvantageUCF

Where UCF scores: the offensive glass

UCF rebounds 35.0% of its own misses (#47); Yale lets opponents grab 29.7% of their own misses (#147). Expect about 33.3%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.

ClashUCF

Style clash: paint scoring

UCF scores 46.8% of its points in the paint; Yale protects the paint (38.4% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

Yale has the ball

OffenseUCF allowsvs D1 avg

55.6% #26

52.1% #221

+4.2 pt/100

14.0% #22

15.7% #240

+2.8 pt/100

34.2% #62

28.8% #96

+1.1 pt/100

35.1% #172

34.9% #177

-0.0 pt/100

74.6% #100

—

+0.2 pt/100

Yale net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.3 pts/100

UCF has the ball

OffenseYale allowsvs D1 avg

52.6% #123

51.7% #192

+1.4 pt/100

16.0% #137

16.3% #204

+1.0 pt/100

35.0% #47

29.7% #147

+1.8 pt/100

30.5% #295

26.8% #19

-0.9 pt/100

72.9% #173

—

+0.0 pt/100

UCF net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Yaleoffense vsUCFdefense

Share of shots by zone

Yale shoots

41.9

5.8

15.6

36.7

UCF allows

34.9

7.2

18.5

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#107	59.2%#198	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.7%#28	43.1%#254	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.5%#133	42.0%#306	38.0%
Three	39.4%#3	33.9%#176	33.7%

UCFoffense vsYaledefense

Share of shots by zone

UCF shoots

38.6

7.8

19.3

34.3

Yale allows

35.7

4.5

15.7

44.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.9%#121	57.9%#147	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#137	35.3%#65	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.5%#202	41.0%#277	38.0%
Three	36.2%#49	35.0%#250	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Yale

+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#17 of 365

Off reb %

34.2%

#62

Def reb %

70.3%

#147

Turnover %

14.0%

#22

Forced TO %

16.3%

#204

FT rate

35.1%

#172

FT allowed

26.8%

#19

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+2.2

UCF

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#144 of 365

Off reb %

35.0%

#47

Def reb %

71.2%

#96

Turnover %

16.0%

#137

Forced TO %

15.7%

#240

FT rate

30.5%

#295

FT allowed

34.9%

#177

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.5

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+0.1

Yale has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#17 of 365) to UCF’s +0.9 (#144).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Yale2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Isaac Celiscar	F	So	6'6"	31-31	31.1	13.2	6.3	3.2	1.3	62.1%	40.7%	1.9	79.8%	22.1%
11	Trevor Mullin	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	27.1	11.5	2.4	2.7	1.1	52.3%	38.2%	5.1	89.3%	25.0%
14	Casey Simmons	G	Sr	6'7"	31-31	26.6	10.5	3.9	1.1	0.6	60.0%	38.3%	1.5	65.5%	21.2%
10	Samson Aletan	C	Jr	6'10"	29-29	25.8	7.8	5.8	1.2	0.9	57.8%	—	0.0	58.5%	17.9%
3	Jordan Brathwaite	G	So	6'4"	31-1	19.0	6.6	1.8	1.0	0.6	56.8%	44.1%	3.3	87.5%	20.0%
9	Riley Fox	F	So	6'6"	31-2	18.0	10.0	2.1	0.7	0.4	54.6%	37.2%	3.9	80.4%	30.7%
44	Devon Arlington	G	Sr	6'3"	30-1	14.1	2.8	2.0	1.5	1.1	42.2%	34.1%	1.4	59.1%	18.0%
7	Jack Sullivan	F	Fr	6'11"	20-0	6.2	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.3	46.1%	28.0%	1.3	100.0%	20.7%
0	Courtney Wallace	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	6.5	2.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	67.5%	33.3%	0.8	100.0%	20.2%
12	Daniel Ogunyemi	F	Fr	6'7"	10-0	4.9	2.6	1.8	0.3	0.1	64.7%	—	0.0	80.0%	23.0%
22	Jeannot Basima	G	Jr	6'4"	9-0	4.1	1.2	0.6	0.4	0.3	45.0%	50.0%	0.2	100.0%	20.6%
4	Alvin Loving	G	Fr	6'4"	9-0	3.9	1.6	0.6	0.4	0.1	50.0%	40.0%	0.6	100.0%	21.5%
1	Jacob Tsai	G	Fr	5'11"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	29.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UCF2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
99	Jordan Burks	F	Jr	6'9"	33-33	28.2	13.3	4.8	0.7	0.9	54.5%	37.3%	4.9	78.2%	24.9%
4	Jamichael Stillwell	F	Sr	6'8"	31-30	28.4	11.6	8.2	2.2	1.6	52.6%	30.8%	1.3	70.2%	23.8%
7	John Bol	C	So	7'2"	33-33	18.7	5.9	5.5	0.3	1.2	71.7%	0.0%	0.0	61.5%	16.2%
35	Devan Cambridge	F	Sr	6'6"	33-3	17.4	5.4	3.5	0.8	0.6	51.5%	27.9%	1.8	70.5%	17.6%
22	Chris Johnson	G	Jr	6'5"	32-2	15.8	6.2	1.4	1.9	0.7	52.8%	36.5%	2.7	70.0%	22.7%
11	Carmelo Pacheco	G	Jr	6'5"	31-0	15.6	4.6	1.3	0.4	0.2	58.1%	39.4%	3.5	100.0%	14.7%
0	Jeremy Foumena	C	Jr	6'11"	26-0	9.6	3.5	2.3	0.2	0.4	54.8%	0.0%	0.0	50.0%	21.4%
3	George Beale Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	25-0	8.2	3.7	0.9	0.3	0.3	43.8%	33.3%	2.4	83.3%	29.0%
5	Kris Parker	G	So	6'9"	21-0	6.2	1.8	0.8	0.2	0.7	58.3%	28.6%	0.3	58.8%	20.5%
9	Elijah Hulsewe	C	Jr	7'0"	17-0	4.7	1.1	1.4	0.1	0.2	60.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	11.8%
24	Zach Johnson	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	1.8	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	5.3%
33	Poohpha Warakulnukroh	G	Sr	5'11"	4-0	1.5	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	33.3%	—	0.0	—	46.8%
30	Tanner Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Yale2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Isaac Celiscar	F	So	6'6"	31-31	31.1	13.2	6.3	3.2	1.3	62.1%	40.7%	1.9	79.8%	22.1%
11	Trevor Mullin	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	27.1	11.5	2.4	2.7	1.1	52.3%	38.2%	5.1	89.3%	25.0%
14	Casey Simmons	G	Sr	6'7"	31-31	26.6	10.5	3.9	1.1	0.6	60.0%	38.3%	1.5	65.5%	21.2%
10	Samson Aletan	C	Jr	6'10"	29-29	25.8	7.8	5.8	1.2	0.9	57.8%	—	0.0	58.5%	17.9%
3	Jordan Brathwaite	G	So	6'4"	31-1	19.0	6.6	1.8	1.0	0.6	56.8%	44.1%	3.3	87.5%	20.0%
9	Riley Fox	F	So	6'6"	31-2	18.0	10.0	2.1	0.7	0.4	54.6%	37.2%	3.9	80.4%	30.7%
44	Devon Arlington	G	Sr	6'3"	30-1	14.1	2.8	2.0	1.5	1.1	42.2%	34.1%	1.4	59.1%	18.0%
7	Jack Sullivan	F	Fr	6'11"	20-0	6.2	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.3	46.1%	28.0%	1.3	100.0%	20.7%
0	Courtney Wallace	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	6.5	2.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	67.5%	33.3%	0.8	100.0%	20.2%
12	Daniel Ogunyemi	F	Fr	6'7"	10-0	4.9	2.6	1.8	0.3	0.1	64.7%	—	0.0	80.0%	23.0%
22	Jeannot Basima	G	Jr	6'4"	9-0	4.1	1.2	0.6	0.4	0.3	45.0%	50.0%	0.2	100.0%	20.6%
4	Alvin Loving	G	Fr	6'4"	9-0	3.9	1.6	0.6	0.4	0.1	50.0%	40.0%	0.6	100.0%	21.5%
1	Jacob Tsai	G	Fr	5'11"	3-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	29.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Yale

Against the spread

Season

12-17

Home

4-7

Road

5-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −1.4

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 10 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

4-7

Road

7-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −1.8

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	H	L 67–68	−4.5	L−5.5	148.5	U135	103.0	104.5	65.1
Mar 15	PennAdjEM #162	N	L 84–88 OT	−9.5	L−13.5	144.0	O172	116.1	121.7	72.3
Mar 14	CornellAdjEM #135	N	W 88–76	−3.5	W+8.5	163.5	O164	144.9	125.2	60.7
Mar 7	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 78–53	−14.0	W+11.0	137.0	U131	117.2	79.6	66.6
Feb 28	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	W 60–54	−6.5	L−0.5	146.0	U114	98.9	89.0	60.7
Feb 27	CornellAdjEM #135	A	L 69–72	−4.0	L−7.0	164.0	U141	107.4	112.1	64.3
Feb 21	PennAdjEM #162	H	W 74–70	−8.5	L−4.5	149.5	U144	111.1	105.1	66.6
Feb 14	HarvardAdjEM #133	A	W 76–75 OT	−5.5	L−4.5	139.5	O151	115.8	114.2	65.7
Feb 13	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 83–70	−10.0	W+3.0	151.5	O153	121.5	102.5	68.3
Feb 9	HowardAdjEM #160	A	W 87–81 OT	−7.0	L−1.0	147.5	O168	120.7	112.4	72.1

UCF

Against the spread

Season

16-16-1

Home

8-10-1

Road

5-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.2

Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-19

Home

11-8

Road

3-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +2.5

Under 4 straightOver in 1 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#7UCLAAdjEM #37	N	L 71–75	+6.0	W+2.0	152.0	U146	100.6	106.3	70.6
Mar 12	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	N	L 59–81	+15.5	L−6.5	158.5	U140	86.2	118.4	68.4
Mar 11	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	N	W 66–65 OT	+3.5	W+4.5	149.0	U131	86.3	85.0	76.5
Mar 6	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	A	L 62–77	+4.5	L−10.5	141.5	U139	92.9	115.4	66.7
Mar 3	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	H	L 104–111 OT	−8.5	L−15.5	168.5	O215	119.3	127.3	87.2
Feb 28	BaylorAdjEM #55	H	L 86–87	−1.5	L−2.5	159.0	O173	129.8	131.3	66.2
Feb 24	#19BYUAdjEM #26	A	W 97–84	+13.5	W+26.5	161.5	O181	125.0	108.3	77.6
Feb 21	UtahAdjEM #177	A	W 73–71	+1.0	W+3.0	153.0	U144	117.2	114.0	62.3
Feb 17	TCUAdjEM #51	H	W 82–71	+1.0	W+12.0	155.0	U153	115.2	99.8	71.2
Feb 14	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	H	L 67–74	−3.5	L−10.5	140.5	O141	98.8	109.1	67.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

YaleUCF

Efficiency

116.5

114.3

108.1

107.2

66.6

69.6

—

Shooting

55.6%

52.6%

53.6%

51.7%

39.4%

36.2%

74.6%

72.9%

35.1%

30.5%

Ball control & glass

14.0%

16.0%

16.3%

15.7%

34.2%

35.0%

29.7%

28.8%

7.7%

8.6%

9.1%

9.4%

Style

36.1%

34.8%

44.4%

46.8%

9.8%

14.7%

56.0%

53.7%

29.0%

32.0%

Roster

2.73

3.19

6'5.5"

6'8.2"

84.0%

70.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Yale

Returning minutes: 84.0%Returning production: 79.7%

Lost

Nick Townsend 32.4 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UCF

Returning minutes: 70.2%Returning production: 69.2%

Lost

Themus Fulks 32.8 mpg, 14.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Riley Kugel 27.2 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Tanner Jones no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 70% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.