CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCarver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA

E Illinois

Efficiency #317

2025-26: 13-20 · 9-13 conf

Iowa

Efficiency #22

2025-26: 24-13 · 11-11 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

59.3

win 6%

Projected

77.8

win 94%

No line posted yet.

Model: IOWA −18.5 · total 137.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Iowa 65.0, E Illinois 67.2 → 63.9 possessions

−9.7

Iowa offense vs E Illinois defense

+6.6

E Illinois offense vs Iowa defense

−8.2

Projected total

137.0

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Iowa offense vs E Illinois defense

+6.6

E Illinois offense vs Iowa defense

+8.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

Iowa by 18.5

18.5

E Illinois side ◂▸ Iowa side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 136.9 against a projected 137.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iowa.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 63.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, E Illinois is the faster team (66.2, #286 of 365) and Iowa the slower (62.8, #365). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

63.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

137.0

model

Projected team totals

59.3 / 77.8

E Illinois / Iowa

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.2#277

E Illinois

65.0#363

Iowa

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Iowa averages 62.8 possessions per 40, E Illinois 66.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 62 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageE Illinois

Where E Illinois struggles: ball control

E Illinois turns it over on 18.6% of possessions (#303); Iowa forces turnovers on 20.3% of opponent possessions (#17). Expect about 20.0%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.0 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageIowa

Where Iowa scores: shooting

Iowa shoots an effective 56.4% (#17); E Illinois allows 50.8% (#146). Expect about 54.0%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions.

ClashIowa

Style match: ball movement

Iowa assists on 57.7% of its made baskets; E Illinois allows assists on 58.0% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 59.5% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (E Illinois's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect E Illinois at about 32.2% of its shots from three, Iowa about 43.4%.

ClashIowa

Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers

Iowa (#41 in live-ball turnovers) against E Illinois (#53 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.0%. Historically E Illinois's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).

E Illinois has the ball

OffenseIowa allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #353

52.6% #245

-3.6 pt/100

18.6% #303

20.3% #17

-4.0 pt/100

28.2% #256

29.2% #119

-1.3 pt/100

33.5% #224

38.5% #272

+0.2 pt/100

74.4% #107

—

+0.2 pt/100

E Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.6 pts/100

Iowa has the ball

OffenseE Illinois allowsvs D1 avg

56.4% #17

50.8% #146

+3.8 pt/100

15.1% #73

19.3% #39

-0.8 pt/100

30.2% #192

35.2% #343

+1.3 pt/100

35.1% #176

35.3% #187

+0.0 pt/100

76.9% #34

—

+0.4 pt/100

Iowa net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

E Illinoisoffense vsIowadefense

Share of shots by zone

E Illinois shoots

39.9

7.2

23.4

29.5

Iowa allows

37.6

6.4

16.4

39.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.1%#339	65.5%#354	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.8%#334	44.2%#273	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.5%#323	32.5%#21	38.0%
Three	31.7%#292	33.3%#141	33.7%

Iowaoffense vsE Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Iowa shoots

38.4

7.1

11.5

43.0

E Illinois allows

39.2

5.2

14.1

41.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.8%#25	60.7%#257	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.1%#145	37.0%#111	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.0%#26	33.5%#37	38.0%
Three	35.6%#85	31.7%#50	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

E Illinois

−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#271 of 365

Off reb %

28.2%

#256

Def reb %

64.8%

#343

Turnover %

18.6%

#303

Forced TO %

19.3%

#39

FT rate

33.5%

#224

FT allowed

35.3%

#187

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers+1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed0.0

Iowa

+3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#51 of 365

Off reb %

30.2%

#192

Def reb %

70.8%

#119

Turnover %

15.1%

#73

Forced TO %

20.3%

#17

FT rate

35.1%

#176

FT allowed

38.5%

#272

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+2.5

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Iowa has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.2 (#51 of 365) to E Illinois’s −2.0 (#271).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

E Illinois2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
40	Kooper Jacobi	F	Sr	6'7"	33-32	33.3	11.1	6.4	1.8	1.2	44.8%	24.0%	3.0	52.2%	23.9%
3	Meechie White	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	30.4	10.5	3.7	3.1	1.8	49.8%	38.0%	2.8	85.7%	22.2%
5	Zion Fruster	G	Sr	6'2"	30-22	31.7	14.5	3.2	2.3	1.9	45.1%	30.3%	3.3	81.4%	31.3%
24	Terry McMorris	F	So	6'7"	33-24	26.1	7.6	5.8	1.5	1.6	46.1%	16.7%	0.4	75.7%	19.9%
10	Preston Turner	G	Jr	6'6"	31-9	20.8	7.7	1.7	0.9	1.5	59.5%	44.8%	3.1	81.5%	21.7%
13	Nazareth Fisher	F	Sr	6'10"	29-26	15.2	4.1	4.1	0.4	1.1	55.3%	—	0.0	68.4%	18.2%
1	Markus Blackwell	G	Fr	6'2"	23-0	16.6	4.7	1.1	0.9	1.0	47.4%	43.6%	1.7	77.8%	20.2%
4	Andre Washington	G	Sr	5'11"	14-12	24.1	10.5	1.9	1.1	1.0	46.7%	28.6%	3.5	70.0%	29.0%
7	Prince Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	31-2	10.8	2.0	2.4	0.1	0.2	48.8%	—	0.0	68.8%	11.0%
11	Malik Olafioye	G	So	6'2"	20-2	16.4	3.9	1.9	1.3	1.5	39.6%	15.0%	1.0	64.0%	21.5%
15	Andrew Austin	F	So	6'7"	24-3	11.4	2.4	0.8	0.9	0.6	41.7%	21.7%	1.9	61.5%	17.6%
2	JT Elder	G	Jr	6'7"	1-0	17.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	66.7%	50.0%	4.0	—	24.6%
6	Kyle Layton	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Shane Sims	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Iowa2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Cooper Koch	F	Fr	6'8"	37-37	28.4	7.8	3.1	1.1	0.5	58.6%	40.2%	4.4	83.3%	15.6%
11	Kael Combs	G	Jr	6'4"	37-33	26.0	6.1	2.4	2.4	1.4	54.4%	33.3%	1.5	83.7%	16.3%
6	Tavion Banks	G	Sr	6'7"	37-35	23.3	10.2	4.6	1.1	1.4	55.9%	44.2%	1.2	79.2%	26.7%
3	Cam Manyawu	F	Jr	6'9"	37-37	19.2	6.6	4.6	1.1	0.8	63.1%	—	0.0	57.5%	20.2%
23	Isaia Howard	G	So	6'5"	37-5	18.2	5.1	2.6	1.1	0.6	50.6%	28.1%	1.7	69.4%	19.0%
24	Tate Sage	G	Fr	6'7"	37-0	16.2	6.1	2.1	0.7	0.5	58.9%	38.9%	1.9	71.1%	21.3%
27	Trevin Jirak	C	Fr	6'11"	17-0	8.0	3.4	0.9	1.1	1.0	51.3%	16.7%	1.1	70.4%	30.8%
44	Joey Matteoni	F	Fr	6'9"	11-0	3.8	1.5	0.6	0.3	0.2	53.3%	—	0.0	33.3%	26.8%
10	Jacob Koch	G	So	6'2"	5-0	2.2	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	—	17.3%
5	Peyton McCollum	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	Trey Thompson	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

E Illinois2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
40	Kooper Jacobi	F	Sr	6'7"	33-32	33.3	11.1	6.4	1.8	1.2	44.8%	24.0%	3.0	52.2%	23.9%
3	Meechie White	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	30.4	10.5	3.7	3.1	1.8	49.8%	38.0%	2.8	85.7%	22.2%
5	Zion Fruster	G	Sr	6'2"	30-22	31.7	14.5	3.2	2.3	1.9	45.1%	30.3%	3.3	81.4%	31.3%
24	Terry McMorris	F	So	6'7"	33-24	26.1	7.6	5.8	1.5	1.6	46.1%	16.7%	0.4	75.7%	19.9%
10	Preston Turner	G	Jr	6'6"	31-9	20.8	7.7	1.7	0.9	1.5	59.5%	44.8%	3.1	81.5%	21.7%
13	Nazareth Fisher	F	Sr	6'10"	29-26	15.2	4.1	4.1	0.4	1.1	55.3%	—	0.0	68.4%	18.2%
1	Markus Blackwell	G	Fr	6'2"	23-0	16.6	4.7	1.1	0.9	1.0	47.4%	43.6%	1.7	77.8%	20.2%
4	Andre Washington	G	Sr	5'11"	14-12	24.1	10.5	1.9	1.1	1.0	46.7%	28.6%	3.5	70.0%	29.0%
7	Prince Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	31-2	10.8	2.0	2.4	0.1	0.2	48.8%	—	0.0	68.8%	11.0%
11	Malik Olafioye	G	So	6'2"	20-2	16.4	3.9	1.9	1.3	1.5	39.6%	15.0%	1.0	64.0%	21.5%
15	Andrew Austin	F	So	6'7"	24-3	11.4	2.4	0.8	0.9	0.6	41.7%	21.7%	1.9	61.5%	17.6%
2	JT Elder	G	Jr	6'7"	1-0	17.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	66.7%	50.0%	4.0	—	24.6%
6	Kyle Layton	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Shane Sims	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

E Illinois

Against the spread

Season

16-14

Home

5-7

Road

9-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +0.2

Covered 2 straightCovered 6 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

7-5

Road

6-10

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.6

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	UT MartinAdjEM #182	N	L 63–66	+8.0	W+5.0	126.0	O129	101.8	106.7	61.9
Mar 4	SIUEAdjEM #229	N	W 77–71 OT	+4.5	W+10.5	128.0	O148	111.5	102.8	69.0
Feb 28	SIUEAdjEM #229	A	L 50–77	+6.0	L−21.0	130.0	U127	83.0	127.9	60.2
Feb 26	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	A	W 71–67	+7.5	W+11.5	144.0	U138	102.7	96.9	69.2
Feb 21	S IndianaAdjEM #333	H	L 68–70	−4.5	L−6.5	136.0	O138	103.9	106.9	65.5
Feb 19	Morehead StAdjEM #266	H	L 70–73	+1.0	L−2.0	136.5	O143	105.5	110.0	66.3
Feb 14	Little RockAdjEM #300	H	W 78–72	+1.5	W+7.5	135.5	O150	117.5	108.4	66.4
Feb 10	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	A	L 70–79	−4.5	L−13.5	133.0	O149	97.2	109.7	72.0
Feb 7	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	A	W 60–54	+4.5	W+10.5	140.5	U114	93.0	83.7	64.5
Feb 5	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	A	L 68–77	+9.5	W+0.5	145.5	U145	98.6	111.6	69.0

Iowa

Against the spread

Season

21-16

Home

11-7

Road

5-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-15-2

Home

9-8-1

Road

7-4

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total +1.1

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 28	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	L 59–71	+7.0	L−5.0	138.5	U130	107.6	129.5	54.8
Mar 26	#4NebraskaAdjEM #17	N	W 77–71	+1.5	W+7.5	131.0	O148	127.4	117.4	60.5
Mar 22	#1FloridaAdjEM #5	N	W 73–72	+10.0	W+11.0	145.0	P145	119.4	117.8	61.1
Mar 20	#8ClemsonAdjEM #35	N	W 67–61	−1.5	W+4.5	131.0	U128	124.7	113.6	53.7
Mar 12	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	N	L 69–72	−1.5	L−4.5	140.5	O141	118.9	124.1	58.0
Mar 11	MarylandAdjEM #198	N	W 75–64	−12.0	L−1.0	134.5	O139	114.1	97.4	65.7
Mar 8	#9NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 75–84 OT	+5.0	L−4.0	136.5	O159	100.7	112.8	74.5
Mar 5	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 68–71	+9.0	W+6.0	147.0	U139	104.5	109.1	65.1
Feb 28	Penn StateAdjEM #194	A	L 69–71	−9.0	L−11.0	144.0	U140	116.1	119.5	59.4
Feb 25	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	H	W 74–57	−6.0	W+11.0	140.5	U131	126.4	97.4	58.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

E IllinoisIowa

Efficiency

100.7

117.6

109.7

103.4

67.2

65.0

—

Shooting

45.7%

56.4%

44.9%

58.6%

31.7%

35.6%

74.4%

76.9%

33.5%

35.1%

Ball control & glass

18.6%

15.1%

19.3%

20.3%

28.2%

30.2%

35.2%

29.2%

9.5%

8.1%

11.7%

8.8%

Style

29.9%

43.0%

44.3%

43.9%

18.7%

9.6%

48.7%

57.7%

32.6%

32.9%

Roster

3.09

2.31

6'4.6"

6'6.8"

—

68.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

E Illinois

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Iowa

Returning minutes: 68.0%Returning production: 61.3%

Lost

Bennett Stirtz 37.8 mpg, 19.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Alvaro Folgueiras 20.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Brendan Hausen 5.8 mpg, 2.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Peyton McCollum no D1 minutes last season
Trey Thompson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 68% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.