CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceVyStar Arena, Kennesaw, GA

Austin Peay

Efficiency #141

2025-26: 22-9 · 16-4 conf

Kennesaw St

Efficiency #154

2025-26: 21-14 · 13-10 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

76.2

win 37%

Projected

79.9

win 63%

No line posted yet.

Model: KENN −3.7 · total 156.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Kennesaw St 70.8, Austin Peay 69.5 → 72.0 possessions

+7.9

Kennesaw St offense vs Austin Peay defense

−0.2

Austin Peay offense vs Kennesaw St defense

+0.2

Projected total

156.1

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Kennesaw St offense vs Austin Peay defense

−0.2

Austin Peay offense vs Kennesaw St defense

−0.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Kennesaw St by 3.7

3.7

Austin Peay side ◂▸ Kennesaw St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kennesaw St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kennesaw St is the faster team (71.8, #28 of 365) and Austin Peay the slower (70.1, #90). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

72.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

156.1

model

Projected team totals

76.2 / 79.9

Austin Peay / Kennesaw St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.5#82

Austin Peay

70.8#20

Kennesaw St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

Kennesaw St averages 71.8 possessions per 40, Austin Peay 70.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseKennesaw St

Kennesaw St's shot-blocking

Kennesaw St ranks #13 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.6% of Austin Peay's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

DefenseAustin Peay

Austin Peay's ball-hawking

Austin Peay ranks #24 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of Kennesaw St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

AdvantageKennesaw St

Where Kennesaw St scores: the offensive glass

Kennesaw St rebounds 35.2% of its own misses (#44); Austin Peay lets opponents grab 28.9% of their own misses (#100). Expect about 33.0%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageAustin Peay

Where Austin Peay scores: ball control

Austin Peay turns it over on 15.4% of possessions (#93); Kennesaw St forces turnovers on 16.0% of opponent possessions (#221). Expect about 15.5%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

Austin Peay has the ball

OffenseKennesaw St allowsvs D1 avg

53.0% #105

48.3% #43

-0.8 pt/100

15.4% #93

16.0% #221

+1.6 pt/100

29.7% #214

31.6% #234

+0.1 pt/100

37.6% #110

47.1% #358

+1.1 pt/100

73.4% #158

—

+0.1 pt/100

Austin Peay net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.0 pts/100

Kennesaw St has the ball

OffenseAustin Peay allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #224

52.2% #227

-0.1 pt/100

16.7% #178

17.9% #104

-0.8 pt/100

35.2% #44

28.9% #100

+1.6 pt/100

45.1% #5

32.8% #127

+0.4 pt/100

70.1% #268

—

-0.2 pt/100

Kennesaw St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Austin Peayoffense vsKennesaw Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Austin Peay shoots

43.8

7.7

10.7

37.8

Kennesaw St allows

42.8

7.0

13.3

36.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.5%#178	51.0%#8	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.0%#79	44.6%#284	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.7%#318	36.1%#113	38.0%
Three	35.3%#99	33.5%#154	33.7%

Kennesaw Stoffense vsAustin Peaydefense

Share of shots by zone

Kennesaw St shoots

41.3

5.9

10.2

42.6

Austin Peay allows

41.7

5.2

12.2

40.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.7%#250	60.5%#254	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.1%#329	32.5%#24	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.4%#302	40.2%#249	38.0%
Three	33.4%#203	33.2%#137	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Austin Peay

+3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#48 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#214

Def reb %

71.1%

#100

Turnover %

15.4%

#93

Forced TO %

17.9%

#104

FT rate

37.6%

#110

FT allowed

32.8%

#127

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn+0.7

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Kennesaw St

+0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#166 of 365

Off reb %

35.2%

#44

Def reb %

68.4%

#234

Turnover %

16.7%

#178

Forced TO %

16.0%

#221

FT rate

45.1%

FT allowed

47.1%

#358

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−0.5

Foul shots drawn+2.6

Foul shots allowed−3.0

Austin Peay has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.4 (#48 of 365) to Kennesaw St’s +0.4 (#166).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Austin Peay2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Austin Peay's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
32	Collin Parker	F	Sr	6'8"	31-31	30.6	17.6	6.2	3.2	1.6	54.5%	40.0%	4.5	81.5%	30.8%
0	Tate McCubbin	G	So	6'8"	31-31	29.5	9.7	4.8	1.4	0.8	49.8%	34.6%	6.0	79.2%	19.1%
1	Zyree Collins	PG	Fr	6'0"	31-30	29.3	13.5	3.1	4.3	2.5	47.8%	31.3%	3.2	74.8%	29.5%
5	Rashaud Marshall	F	Jr	6'8"	31-28	29.2	16.3	6.8	1.2	1.2	65.5%	—	0.0	67.3%	25.7%
12	Anton Brookshire	PG	Sr	6'2"	31-20	24.8	8.4	2.2	2.7	1.4	54.8%	37.7%	4.7	80.0%	19.4%
23	Ja'Corey Robinson	PG	Fr	6'6"	30-0	17.2	6.6	2.9	2.0	1.3	53.4%	40.0%	0.3	75.4%	22.9%
3	Matt Enright	PG	Sr	6'2"	25-12	15.4	4.7	1.1	1.0	0.3	52.6%	37.3%	3.0	75.0%	16.5%
7	Creighton Morisch	F	Sr	6'10"	30-3	9.2	1.3	2.0	0.4	0.6	48.7%	28.6%	0.2	18.2%	12.8%
22	Travis Torain	G	So	6'8"	21-0	9.2	2.0	2.4	0.0	0.4	54.7%	33.3%	0.1	100.0%	12.2%
2	Tyler Wagner	G	Fr	6'5"	21-0	7.8	2.9	1.3	0.1	0.1	59.4%	38.6%	2.1	75.0%	17.0%
20	Quan Lax	PG	Sr	6'2"	9-0	13.8	2.4	1.6	0.9	0.7	34.1%	10.0%	1.1	77.8%	14.6%
24	Hansel Enmanuel	PG	Sr	6'6"	11-0	6.5	1.5	1.5	0.0	0.5	36.4%	0.0%	0.1	72.7%	16.3%
10	Terrell Gaines	PG	So	5'8"	5-0	5.0	1.8	0.2	0.0	0.8	31.3%	20.0%	1.0	100.0%	27.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Kennesaw St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
13	Braedan Lue	F	So	6'9"	35-34	26.6	10.9	5.3	1.2	1.5	48.8%	26.7%	2.5	69.5%	25.2%
2	Trey Simpson	F	Fr	6'8"	35-23	25.6	9.0	4.9	0.6	1.2	54.7%	34.3%	4.8	67.2%	19.9%
6	Frankquon Sherman	F	Jr	6'7"	35-25	25.2	10.4	8.5	1.0	1.3	51.8%	28.7%	2.5	73.3%	22.8%
4	Kaden Rickard	G	Fr	6'6"	35-16	19.9	5.8	2.6	2.3	1.6	46.4%	32.8%	1.7	54.9%	21.0%
23	Amir Taylor	F	Fr	6'9"	33-19	17.2	7.5	3.6	0.9	0.9	60.9%	40.5%	1.1	64.8%	22.3%
5	Simeon Cottle	G	Sr	6'2"	17-17	30.4	20.2	2.5	3.8	2.5	53.0%	37.7%	8.6	87.6%	34.0%
21	Jaden Harris	G	Sr	6'4"	20-2	24.3	7.6	1.8	0.9	1.0	49.2%	36.9%	5.2	85.7%	19.3%
0	Ramone Seals	F	So	6'6"	22-14	17.8	7.6	4.2	0.5	0.9	51.2%	32.8%	3.0	76.6%	23.5%
3	Darius Washington III	G	Fr	6'5"	24-0	15.1	5.3	2.3	1.6	0.9	48.0%	32.3%	1.3	65.3%	21.6%
12	Perry Smith Jr.	C	Sr	6'8"	26-3	11.8	3.0	2.5	0.7	0.6	63.3%	0.0%	0.0	53.6%	13.8%
9	Eric Holland	G	Sr	5'8"	8-0	3.1	1.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.5	66.7%	28.3%
31	Charles Stone	G	Sr	6'2"	6-0	3.0	1.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	27.8%	14.3%	1.2	50.0%	29.1%
30	Dozie Onyirimba	F	So	6'3"	5-0	3.4	1.4	1.4	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.6	—	21.5%
1	Davin Cosby Jr.	G	Jr	6'5"	1-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
24	Brendan Tousignaut	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Chase Clemmons	G	So	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Jamil Miller	F	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Nigel Thomas	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Austin Peay2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Austin Peay's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
32	Collin Parker	F	Sr	6'8"	31-31	30.6	17.6	6.2	3.2	1.6	54.5%	40.0%	4.5	81.5%	30.8%
0	Tate McCubbin	G	So	6'8"	31-31	29.5	9.7	4.8	1.4	0.8	49.8%	34.6%	6.0	79.2%	19.1%
1	Zyree Collins	PG	Fr	6'0"	31-30	29.3	13.5	3.1	4.3	2.5	47.8%	31.3%	3.2	74.8%	29.5%
5	Rashaud Marshall	F	Jr	6'8"	31-28	29.2	16.3	6.8	1.2	1.2	65.5%	—	0.0	67.3%	25.7%
12	Anton Brookshire	PG	Sr	6'2"	31-20	24.8	8.4	2.2	2.7	1.4	54.8%	37.7%	4.7	80.0%	19.4%
23	Ja'Corey Robinson	PG	Fr	6'6"	30-0	17.2	6.6	2.9	2.0	1.3	53.4%	40.0%	0.3	75.4%	22.9%
3	Matt Enright	PG	Sr	6'2"	25-12	15.4	4.7	1.1	1.0	0.3	52.6%	37.3%	3.0	75.0%	16.5%
7	Creighton Morisch	F	Sr	6'10"	30-3	9.2	1.3	2.0	0.4	0.6	48.7%	28.6%	0.2	18.2%	12.8%
22	Travis Torain	G	So	6'8"	21-0	9.2	2.0	2.4	0.0	0.4	54.7%	33.3%	0.1	100.0%	12.2%
2	Tyler Wagner	G	Fr	6'5"	21-0	7.8	2.9	1.3	0.1	0.1	59.4%	38.6%	2.1	75.0%	17.0%
20	Quan Lax	PG	Sr	6'2"	9-0	13.8	2.4	1.6	0.9	0.7	34.1%	10.0%	1.1	77.8%	14.6%
24	Hansel Enmanuel	PG	Sr	6'6"	11-0	6.5	1.5	1.5	0.0	0.5	36.4%	0.0%	0.1	72.7%	16.3%
10	Terrell Gaines	PG	So	5'8"	5-0	5.0	1.8	0.2	0.0	0.8	31.3%	20.0%	1.0	100.0%	27.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Austin Peay

Against the spread

Season

14-14-1

Home

7-4

Road

7-8-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.9

Missed the spread 6 straightCovered 3 of 9 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

14-15

Home

6-5

Road

7-9

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +8.2

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 9 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	QueensAdjEM #191	N	L 83–90	−2.0	L−9.0	161.5	O173	114.1	123.8	72.7
Mar 6	StetsonAdjEM #322	N	W 69–60	−12.5	L−3.5	153.0	U129	109.7	95.4	62.9
Feb 28	BellarmineAdjEM #281	A	L 97–111	−5.5	L−19.5	155.0	O208	117.3	134.2	82.7
Feb 25	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	H	L 88–93	−5.0	L−10.0	151.5	O181	129.9	137.2	67.8
Feb 21	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	A	W 65–61	−5.5	L−1.5	142.5	U126	107.6	101.0	60.4
Feb 19	North FloridaAdjEM #338	A	W 77–76	−11.0	L−10.0	165.5	U153	98.7	97.5	78.0
Feb 14	BellarmineAdjEM #281	H	W 90–70	−9.5	W+10.5	153.0	O160	148.8	115.7	60.5
Feb 11	QueensAdjEM #191	A	W 95–87	+2.5	W+10.5	161.0	O182	128.9	118.1	73.7
Feb 7	North AlabamaAdjEM #343	H	W 91–62	−12.5	W+16.5	145.5	O153	147.3	100.4	61.8
Feb 4	LipscombAdjEM #179	H	W 87–76	−4.5	W+6.5	157.0	O163	120.9	105.6	71.9

Kennesaw St

Against the spread

Season

16-15-1

Home

6-7

Road

5-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +3.6

Covered 4 straightCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-17-1

Home

7-6

Road

4-7-1

Last 10

3-6-1

avg vs total −0.6

Under 3 straightOver in 1 of 4 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#3GonzagaAdjEM #8	N	L 64–73	+20.5	W+11.5	151.5	U137	92.6	105.6	69.1
Mar 14	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	N	W 71–60	+1.0	W+12.0	142.0	U131	110.1	93.1	64.5
Mar 13	Sam HoustonAdjEM #101	N	W 79–73	+2.0	W+8.0	159.5	U152	113.4	104.8	69.7
Mar 12	Western KYAdjEM #159	N	W 96–87	+1.0	W+10.0	159.5	O183	124.6	113.0	77.0
Mar 7	New Mexico StAdjEM #178	A	L 76–79	+1.0	L−2.0	157.5	U155	112.5	116.9	67.6
Mar 5	UTEPAdjEM #279	A	L 71–78	−3.5	L−10.5	149.0	P149	94.7	104.1	74.9
Feb 28	DelawareAdjEM #302	H	W 90–82	−12.0	L−4.0	143.0	O172	129.4	117.9	69.5
Feb 26	LibertyAdjEM #103	H	W 74–65	−1.0	W+8.0	152.5	U139	116.9	102.7	63.3
Feb 21	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	H	W 58–55	−6.0	L−3.0	147.5	U113	85.6	81.1	67.8
Feb 18	Missouri StAdjEM #212	A	W 91–87	+2.0	W+6.0	152.5	O178	125.8	120.3	72.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Austin PeayKennesaw St

Efficiency

108.7

109.6

107.1

108.5

69.5

70.8

—

Shooting

53.0%

50.4%

53.0%

50.5%

35.3%

33.4%

73.4%

70.1%

37.6%

45.1%

Ball control & glass

15.4%

16.7%

17.9%

16.0%

29.7%

35.2%

28.9%

31.6%

9.3%

11.0%

8.7%

13.0%

Style

38.0%

42.5%

46.1%

40.7%

15.2%

11.3%

56.0%

50.9%

29.5%

34.4%

Roster

2.72

2.17

6'5.4"

6'6.7"

—

86.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Austin Peay

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Austin Peay's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Kennesaw St

Returning minutes: 86.5%Returning production: 84.0%

Lost

RJ Johnson 27.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St

Added

Brendan Tousignaut no D1 minutes last season
Chase Clemmons no D1 minutes last season
Nigel Thomas no D1 minutes last season
Jamil Miller no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 5	2026-27	Kennesaw St 0 – 0 Austin Peay

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.