CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDesert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ
N Colorado
Efficiency #146
2025-26: 20-12 · 10-9 conf
@
Arizona St
Efficiency #93
2025-26: 17-16 · 8-12 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
74.4
win 30%
Projected
80.7
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: ASU −6.2 · total 155.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Arizona St 69.5, N Colorado 69.1 → 70.3 possessions
+4.3
Arizona St offense vs N Colorado defense
+2.3
N Colorado offense vs Arizona St defense
+0.1
Projected total
155.1
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Arizona St offense vs N Colorado defense
+2.3
N Colorado offense vs Arizona St defense
−0.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Arizona St by 6.2
6.2
N Colorado side ◂▸ Arizona St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 154.9 against a projected 155.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Arizona St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arizona St is the faster team (70.6, #71 of 365) and N Colorado the slower (70.0, #92). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
155.1
model
Projected team totals
74.4 / 80.7
N Colorado / Arizona St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.1#115
N Colorado
69.5#79
Arizona St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageN Colorado
Where N Colorado scores: shooting
N Colorado shoots an effective 55.7% (#24); Arizona St allows 52.4% (#235). Expect about 54.4%, 3.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageArizona St
Where Arizona St scores: ball control
Arizona St turns it over on 17.1% of possessions (#213); N Colorado forces turnovers on 12.4% of opponent possessions (#363). Expect about 14.2%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Arizona St averages 70.6 possessions per 40, N Colorado 70.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassArizona St
Arizona St gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.0% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Arizona St's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (N Colorado's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect N Colorado at about 41.6% of its shots from three, Arizona St about 35.7%.
ClashN Colorado
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
N Colorado (#20 in shot-blocking exposure) against Arizona St (#30 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.8%. Historically Arizona St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
N Colorado has the ball
OffenseArizona St allowsvs D1 avg
55.7% #24
52.4% #235
+4.5 pt/100
15.4% #98
18.5% #77
-0.4 pt/100
27.2% #288
34.9% #337
-0.0 pt/100
27.5% #348
34.3% #160
-0.5 pt/100
75.8% #59
—
+0.3 pt/100
N Colorado net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.8 pts/100
Arizona St has the ball
OffenseN Colorado allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #190
50.1% #106
-1.0 pt/100
17.1% #213
12.4% #363
+3.2 pt/100
29.8% #206
24.2% #6
-2.1 pt/100
39.5% #66
38.8% #280
+0.5 pt/100
75.3% #73
—
+0.3 pt/100
Arizona St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
N Coloradooffense vsArizona Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
N Colorado shoots
Arizona St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.7%#4259.3%#20458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.3%#9543.1%#25339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)48.3%#139.2%#20938.0%
Three35.0%#12135.0%#24933.7%
Arizona Stoffense vsN Coloradodefense
Share of shots by zone
Arizona St shoots
N Colorado allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.9%#11956.7%#10758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.0%#12233.9%#4339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17746.7%#35738.0%
Three33.4%#20230.7%#2833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
N Colorado
−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#328 of 365
Off reb %
27.2%
#288
Def reb %
75.8%
#6
Turnover %
15.4%
#98
Forced TO %
12.4%
#363
FT rate
27.5%
#348
FT allowed
38.8%
#280
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−2.9
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed−0.9
Arizona St
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#149 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#206
Def reb %
65.1%
#337
Turnover %
17.1%
#213
Forced TO %
18.5%
#77
FT rate
39.5%
#66
FT allowed
34.3%
#160
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.2

Arizona St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.8 (#149 of 365) to N Colorado’s −3.8 (#328).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Colorado2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted N Colorado's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
8Zach BlochGSr6'2"32-3232.511.52.52.31.059.2%42.9%6.879.2%18.3%
35Quinn DenkerGSr6'3"30-3034.319.25.17.02.354.0%34.6%4.481.3%31.1%
14Brock WisneFSr6'9"31-3132.016.26.42.72.460.4%33.8%2.671.3%27.7%
54Ibu YamazakiFJr6'7"32-3027.19.93.60.81.054.5%36.2%5.490.9%20.1%
7Ring NyeriFSo6'8"32-2425.88.56.30.60.959.2%35.3%2.162.2%17.8%
1Vincent DelanoGSo6'2"32-420.16.12.01.61.248.5%28.7%2.571.7%20.4%
33Egan ShieldsCSo6'10"31-517.56.34.80.91.065.8%—0.070.0%18.4%
3Ariik MawienGSo6'4"31-48.93.42.00.40.650.5%23.3%1.457.9%25.6%
10Tanner BraketaGFr6'1"12-07.52.70.70.50.264.0%38.1%1.8—17.0%
4Hunter CaldwellCSo6'10"13-05.82.70.80.40.370.0%46.7%1.2—21.8%
11Chancellor WhiteGJr6'6"6-09.04.51.80.50.850.0%30.0%1.788.9%30.0%
21William HumerFSr6'10"4-010.82.33.81.31.040.9%33.3%0.80.0%20.7%
0Walker AspFSo6'8"3-05.71.01.00.30.350.0%50.0%0.7—13.1%
2Kaden EricksenGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Steven Ramirez Jr.GFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Will Dixion IIIGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
N ColoradoArizona St
Efficiency
110.7
110.9
109.4
106.4
69.1
69.5
—
—
Shooting
55.7%
51.1%
58.1%
51.7%
35.0%
33.4%
75.8%
75.3%
27.5%
39.5%
Ball control & glass
15.4%
17.1%
12.4%
18.5%
27.2%
29.8%
24.2%
34.9%
8.6%
10.5%
7.2%
9.6%
Style
41.5%
38.4%
47.9%
41.8%
8.2%
16.3%
53.3%
53.0%
26.0%
32.3%
Roster
3.08
2.82
6'5.6"
6'7"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
N Colorado
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted N Colorado's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Arizona St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.