CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSchar Center, Elon, NC

UNC Greensboro

Efficiency #301

2025-26: 15-19 · 11-10 conf

Elon

Efficiency #228

2025-26: 14-18 · 6-13 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

74.4

win 27%

Projected

81.5

win 73%

No line posted yet.

Model: ELON −7.1 · total 155.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Elon 68.0, UNC Greensboro 68.6 → 68.2 possessions

−0.2

Elon offense vs UNC Greensboro defense

+5.5

UNC Greensboro offense vs Elon defense

+2.4

Projected total

155.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Elon offense vs UNC Greensboro defense

+5.5

UNC Greensboro offense vs Elon defense

−2.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Elon by 7.1

7.1

UNC Greensboro side ◂▸ Elon side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +7.0 against +7.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Elon.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UNC Greensboro is the faster team (68.5, #170 of 365) and Elon the slower (67.9, #205). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

155.9

model

Projected team totals

74.4 / 81.5

UNC Greensboro / Elon

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#161

UNC Greensboro

68.0#209

Elon

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageElon

Where Elon scores: shooting

Elon shoots an effective 52.2% (#137); UNC Greensboro allows 56.2% (#347). Expect about 54.4%, 3.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.4 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversElon

Elon protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.3% is worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions for Elon's offense.

AdvantageUNC Greensboro

Where UNC Greensboro scores: shooting

UNC Greensboro shoots an effective 52.0% (#146); Elon allows 54.0% (#300). Expect about 53.1%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashElon

Style match: 3-point volume

Elon takes 43.2% of its shots from three; UNC Greensboro lets opponents take 46.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.1% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Elon's defense, UNC Greensboro's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UNC Greensboro at about 43.3% of its shots from three, Elon about 47.1%.

TurnoversUNC Greensboro

UNC Greensboro protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for UNC Greensboro's offense.

UNC Greensboro has the ball

OffenseElon allowsvs D1 avg

52.0% #146

54.0% #300

+2.5 pt/100

15.0% #63

16.4% #193

+1.5 pt/100

28.1% #259

33.5% #307

-0.0 pt/100

42.0% #31

34.6% #169

+0.4 pt/100

70.4% #256

—

-0.2 pt/100

UNC Greensboro net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.3 pts/100

Elon has the ball

OffenseUNC Greensboro allowsvs D1 avg

52.2% #137

56.2% #347

+4.4 pt/100

15.9% #134

13.7% #343

+3.0 pt/100

32.2% #116

29.0% #104

+0.4 pt/100

33.5% #222

30.6% #74

-0.4 pt/100

71.4% #225

—

-0.1 pt/100

Elon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UNC Greensborooffense vsElondefense

Share of shots by zone

UNC Greensboro shoots

34.6

5.7

19.9

39.9

Elon allows

35.8

5.7

14.1

44.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.0%#197	61.8%#297	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.2%#100	42.7%#241	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.8%#83	35.1%#82	38.0%
Three	35.6%#80	36.5%#328	33.7%

Elonoffense vsUNC Greensborodefense

Share of shots by zone

Elon shoots

44.9

3.1

9.2

42.8

UNC Greensboro allows

33.7

5.0

14.7

46.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.0%#198	63.6%#336	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.5%#256	44.4%#279	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.9%#354	37.9%#155	38.0%
Three	34.3%#154	38.0%#357	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UNC Greensboro

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#102 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#259

Def reb %

71.0%

#104

Turnover %

15.0%

#63

Forced TO %

13.7%

#343

FT rate

42.0%

#31

FT allowed

30.6%

#74

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−2.1

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Elon

−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#186 of 365

Off reb %

32.2%

#116

Def reb %

66.5%

#307

Turnover %

15.9%

#134

Forced TO %

16.4%

#193

FT rate

33.5%

#222

FT allowed

34.6%

#169

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.9

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.2

UNC Greensboro has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#102 of 365) to Elon’s −0.2 (#186).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UNC Greensboro2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Justin Neely	F	Sr	6'6"	34-34	32.3	17.9	11.5	2.4	2.2	56.5%	31.4%	1.5	78.4%	29.6%
21	KJ Younger	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	28.5	15.1	4.7	1.2	1.2	52.9%	34.1%	5.4	71.1%	29.8%
13	Donald Whitehead Jr.	G	Sr	5'10"	34-20	26.2	10.1	1.6	2.4	1.1	45.7%	30.7%	4.9	69.2%	24.8%
6	Noah Norgaard	G	Fr	6'2"	34-26	25.1	7.7	2.1	1.5	1.2	51.1%	37.2%	3.8	70.0%	19.5%
11	Valentino Pinedo	F	Sr	6'8"	32-28	26.4	7.3	4.9	1.3	1.0	60.8%	—	0.0	50.0%	15.9%
45	Lilian Marville	G	Fr	6'1"	31-21	26.2	9.5	2.0	2.3	1.3	56.5%	52.2%	3.0	75.0%	20.7%
16	Domas Kauzonas	F	Jr	6'10"	33-6	9.9	2.9	1.6	0.3	0.7	57.5%	—	0.0	42.3%	19.2%
4	Assane Mandian	G	Fr	6'7"	22-0	8.0	2.2	1.0	0.2	0.4	56.4%	37.0%	1.2	100.0%	16.2%
24	Landon King	G	Jr	6'1"	20-1	8.6	2.5	0.9	0.7	0.3	44.4%	32.4%	1.9	42.9%	21.5%
7	Clyde Bailey II	G	Sr	6'1"	13-0	6.7	1.8	0.9	0.4	0.3	52.8%	27.3%	0.8	80.0%	15.6%
0	Antwann Jones	G	Sr	6'6"	7-0	11.4	3.4	2.1	0.4	0.9	47.9%	37.5%	1.1	50.0%	21.8%
8	Chane Bynum	F	Fr	6'9"	13-0	4.2	1.7	1.5	0.2	0.2	36.5%	23.1%	1.0	75.0%	29.5%
9	Braylen Bowman	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	3.2	1.6	0.4	1.2	0.0	66.7%	50.0%	0.8	—	18.6%
3	Jordan Brown	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Elon2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Elon's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Chandler Cuthrell	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	28.2	19.8	6.5	1.7	2.2	51.9%	25.5%	3.3	72.9%	40.7%
11	Randall Pettus II	G	Jr	6'3"	32-31	27.3	11.0	3.1	1.2	1.8	48.7%	35.4%	5.9	76.2%	26.7%
0	Bryson Cokley	G	So	6'6"	32-12	27.0	12.3	3.8	1.3	1.0	55.7%	39.2%	4.9	80.0%	25.1%
12	Isaac Harrell	F	Jr	6'8"	32-31	25.8	7.4	3.6	0.5	0.3	56.3%	35.7%	3.5	72.1%	15.4%
3	Ja'Juan Carr	G	Sr	6'2"	32-31	25.1	7.5	2.7	4.3	1.3	48.5%	30.0%	1.9	71.4%	19.9%
6	Kacper Klaczek	F	Sr	6'8"	24-22	28.0	11.4	6.0	2.8	1.8	61.0%	44.9%	2.9	64.2%	23.1%
22	Ned Hull	G	So	6'3"	32-0	17.9	4.5	1.8	0.9	0.6	53.2%	35.8%	3.0	86.7%	15.7%
8	DeMarco Johnson	G	Fr	6'4"	30-0	15.3	3.0	2.3	2.4	1.2	50.0%	21.7%	0.8	57.1%	15.6%
5	Caleb Middleton	C	So	6'11"	29-0	10.2	3.1	3.4	0.3	0.3	55.6%	—	0.0	66.7%	17.6%
33	Bryson Spell	F	Sr	6'9"	23-1	6.9	1.3	0.9	0.2	0.5	36.4%	0.0%	0.4	83.3%	17.4%
4	Iker Garmendia	F	Fr	6'9"	15-0	4.5	1.3	1.0	0.3	0.3	25.0%	20.0%	0.7	64.3%	26.5%
13	Savion Taylor	G	Fr	6'4"	1-0	4.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	3.0	—	42.7%
25	Alex Olander	F	So	6'4"	2-0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
14	Alex Brabec	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Austin Williams	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Trey O'Neil	G	So	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UNC Greensboro2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Justin Neely	F	Sr	6'6"	34-34	32.3	17.9	11.5	2.4	2.2	56.5%	31.4%	1.5	78.4%	29.6%
21	KJ Younger	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	28.5	15.1	4.7	1.2	1.2	52.9%	34.1%	5.4	71.1%	29.8%
13	Donald Whitehead Jr.	G	Sr	5'10"	34-20	26.2	10.1	1.6	2.4	1.1	45.7%	30.7%	4.9	69.2%	24.8%
6	Noah Norgaard	G	Fr	6'2"	34-26	25.1	7.7	2.1	1.5	1.2	51.1%	37.2%	3.8	70.0%	19.5%
11	Valentino Pinedo	F	Sr	6'8"	32-28	26.4	7.3	4.9	1.3	1.0	60.8%	—	0.0	50.0%	15.9%
45	Lilian Marville	G	Fr	6'1"	31-21	26.2	9.5	2.0	2.3	1.3	56.5%	52.2%	3.0	75.0%	20.7%
16	Domas Kauzonas	F	Jr	6'10"	33-6	9.9	2.9	1.6	0.3	0.7	57.5%	—	0.0	42.3%	19.2%
4	Assane Mandian	G	Fr	6'7"	22-0	8.0	2.2	1.0	0.2	0.4	56.4%	37.0%	1.2	100.0%	16.2%
24	Landon King	G	Jr	6'1"	20-1	8.6	2.5	0.9	0.7	0.3	44.4%	32.4%	1.9	42.9%	21.5%
7	Clyde Bailey II	G	Sr	6'1"	13-0	6.7	1.8	0.9	0.4	0.3	52.8%	27.3%	0.8	80.0%	15.6%
0	Antwann Jones	G	Sr	6'6"	7-0	11.4	3.4	2.1	0.4	0.9	47.9%	37.5%	1.1	50.0%	21.8%
8	Chane Bynum	F	Fr	6'9"	13-0	4.2	1.7	1.5	0.2	0.2	36.5%	23.1%	1.0	75.0%	29.5%
9	Braylen Bowman	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	3.2	1.6	0.4	1.2	0.0	66.7%	50.0%	0.8	—	18.6%
3	Jordan Brown	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UNC Greensboro

Against the spread

Season

14-17-1

Home

5-7

Road

5-8

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +4.9

Covered 5 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

22-10

Home

9-3

Road

10-3

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.3

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	FurmanAdjEM #163	N	L 75–81	+6.0	P0.0	148.5	O156	114.3	123.4	65.6
Mar 7	WoffordAdjEM #235	N	W 75–72	+5.5	W+8.5	156.5	U147	114.3	109.7	65.6
Mar 6	VMIAdjEM #361	N	W 84–70	−6.5	W+7.5	156.0	U154	124.6	103.8	67.4
Feb 28	SamfordAdjEM #202	A	L 78–87	+9.5	W+0.5	157.0	O165	107.4	119.8	72.6
Feb 26	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	W 85–80	+3.5	W+8.5	157.5	O165	110.8	104.3	76.7
Feb 21	ETSUAdjEM #110	H	L 75–87	+6.0	L−6.0	149.0	O162	112.1	130.1	66.9
Feb 18	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	A	L 77–91	+6.0	L−8.0	155.0	O168	109.3	129.1	70.5
Feb 14	WoffordAdjEM #235	H	W 99–89	+2.0	W+12.0	155.5	O188	141.1	126.8	70.2
Feb 11	VMIAdjEM #361	H	W 92–71	−8.5	W+12.5	151.0	O163	133.0	102.7	69.2
Feb 8	FurmanAdjEM #163	A	W 67–64	+10.5	W+13.5	150.0	U131	106.3	101.5	63.0

Elon

Against the spread

Season

11-19

Home

3-11

Road

8-7

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.7

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 0 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-14

Home

9-5

Road

7-8

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −6.3

Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	William & MaryAdjEM #127	N	L 62–72	+5.5	L−4.5	163.5	U134	91.6	106.4	67.7
Mar 3	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	H	L 57–76	+5.0	L−14.0	145.5	U133	85.2	113.6	66.9
Feb 28	MonmouthAdjEM #173	A	L 57–73	+3.5	L−12.5	153.0	U130	90.3	115.7	63.1
Feb 26	TowsonAdjEM #149	A	L 56–58	+5.5	W+3.5	144.0	U114	90.9	94.1	61.6
Feb 21	NC A&TAdjEM #271	H	L 82–102	−8.0	L−28.0	152.5	O184	121.1	150.6	67.7
Feb 14	William & MaryAdjEM #127	A	W 81–78	+8.0	W+11.0	165.5	U159	113.8	109.6	71.2
Feb 12	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	A	L 54–65	+8.0	L−3.0	149.5	U119	89.7	108.0	60.2
Feb 7	DrexelAdjEM #214	H	L 77–82	−5.0	L−10.0	138.0	O159	113.9	121.3	67.6
Feb 5	HamptonAdjEM #268	A	L 79–87 2OT	−1.5	L−9.5	142.5	O166	100.1	110.2	78.9
Jan 31	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	H	L 68–72	−5.5	L−9.5	147.5	U140	98.5	104.3	69.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UNC GreensboroElon

Efficiency

107.8

109.8

115.2

112.7

68.6

68.0

—

Shooting

52.0%

52.2%

51.0%

52.8%

35.6%

34.3%

70.4%

71.4%

42.0%

33.5%

Ball control & glass

15.0%

15.9%

13.7%

16.4%

28.1%

32.2%

29.0%

33.5%

8.7%

9.4%

9.1%

11.2%

Style

40.2%

43.2%

37.8%

44.1%

11.3%

11.6%

46.9%

54.6%

29.3%

33.3%

Roster

2.57

2.96

6'3.7"

6'5.8"

92.8%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UNC Greensboro

Returning minutes: 92.8%Returning production: 95.0%

Lost

Clinton Efinda 14.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg · transferred to Canisius

Added

Jordan Brown no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Elon

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Elon's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 8	2025-26	Elon 92 – 90 UNC Greensboro

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.