CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJenny Craig Pavilion, San Diego, CA
Tarleton St
Efficiency #238
2025-26: 14-18 · 5-14 conf
@
San Diego
Efficiency #269
2025-26: 12-21 · 6-14 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
74.1
win 41%
Projected
76.7
win 59%
No line posted yet.
Model: USD −2.6 · total 150.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: San Diego 68.8, Tarleton St 69.7 → 70.2 possessions
+4.0
San Diego offense vs Tarleton St defense
−1.4
Tarleton St offense vs San Diego defense
0.0
Projected total
150.9
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
San Diego offense vs Tarleton St defense
−1.4
Tarleton St offense vs San Diego defense
0.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
San Diego by 2.6
2.6
Tarleton St side ◂▸ San Diego side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.8 against a projected 150.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help San Diego.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Tarleton St is the faster team (70.2, #84 of 365) and San Diego the slower (68.8, #159). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.9
model
Projected team totals
74.1 / 76.7
Tarleton St / San Diego
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.7#72
Tarleton St
68.8#136
San Diego
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageSan Diego
Where San Diego struggles: ball control
San Diego turns it over on 17.5% of possessions (#237); Tarleton St forces turnovers on 23.4% of opponent possessions (#3). Expect about 21.4%, 4.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.7 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageTarleton St
Where Tarleton St struggles: ball control
Tarleton St turns it over on 20.0% of possessions (#348); San Diego forces turnovers on 18.9% of opponent possessions (#55). Expect about 20.0%, 3.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.9 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseTarleton St
Tarleton St's ball-hawking
Tarleton St ranks #5 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.4% of San Diego's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
GlassTarleton St
Tarleton St owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.2% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for Tarleton St's offense.
ClashTarleton St
Style clash: ball movement
Tarleton St creates off the dribble (assists on 41.7% of its baskets); San Diego allows assists on 57.3% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 48.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Tarleton St has the ball
OffenseSan Diego allowsvs D1 avg
48.3% #306
54.7% #320
+0.0 pt/100
20.0% #348
18.9% #55
-3.9 pt/100
31.5% #141
34.5% #328
+1.7 pt/100
41.9% #33
38.8% #281
+0.7 pt/100
74.2% #121
—
+0.2 pt/100
Tarleton St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.4 pts/100
San Diego has the ball
OffenseTarleton St allowsvs D1 avg
51.2% #185
53.6% #285
+1.6 pt/100
17.5% #237
23.4% #3
-5.7 pt/100
28.1% #262
35.1% #340
+0.4 pt/100
25.8% #358
47.7% #359
+0.4 pt/100
74.7% #95
—
+0.2 pt/100
San Diego net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersTarleton Stoffense vsSan Diegodefense
Share of shots by zone
Tarleton St shoots
44.9
6.9
24.2
24.0
San Diego allows
39.6
6.5
13.9
39.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.4%#333 | 63.2%#328 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.5%#31 | 50.0%#354 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.5%#201 | 47.3%#361 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.5%#256 | 32.7%#100 | 33.7% |
San Diegooffense vsTarleton Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
San Diego shoots
32.2
6.3
17.0
44.5
Tarleton St allows
38.0
6.5
14.8
40.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.6%#174 | 58.6%#170 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.9%#270 | 45.1%#300 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.6%#168 | 45.7%#354 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.6%#141 | 34.9%#244 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersTarleton St
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#185 of 365
Off reb %
31.5%
#141
Def reb %
64.9%
#340
Turnover %
20.0%
#348
Forced TO %
23.4%
#3
FT rate
41.9%
#33
FT allowed
47.7%
#359
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.5
Ball security−2.2
Forcing turnovers+4.6
Foul shots drawn+1.8
Foul shots allowed−3.2
San Diego
−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#334 of 365
Off reb %
28.1%
#262
Def reb %
65.5%
#328
Turnover %
17.5%
#237
Forced TO %
18.9%
#55
FT rate
25.8%
#358
FT allowed
38.8%
#281
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers+1.5
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.9
Tarleton St has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#185 of 365) to San Diego’s −4.3 (#334).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Tarleton St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Tarleton St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jordan Mizell | G | So | 6'1" | 32-31 | 27.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 42.7% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 71.9% | 14.9% | |
| 6 | Kaia Isaac | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-31 | 25.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 49.1% | 35.6% | 2.7 | 85.2% | 15.3% | |
| 2 | Freddy Hicks | G | Sr | 6'5" | 26-17 | 27.0 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 40.9% | 26.9% | 1.0 | 69.4% | 22.4% | |
| 7 | Dior Johnson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 20-2 | 26.2 | 24.0 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 56.7% | 53.8% | 2.6 | 84.9% | 43.8% | |
| 24 | Ocypher Owens | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-14 | 17.2 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 39.6% | 28.1% | 1.1 | 68.1% | 20.0% | |
| 55 | Cam McDowell | G | Sr | 6'5" | 21-7 | 24.0 | 13.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 52.6% | 33.8% | 3.1 | 87.8% | 31.6% | |
| 13 | Kade Douglas | G | Jr | 6'0" | 32-6 | 15.3 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 48.0% | 33.3% | 2.4 | 82.4% | 22.6% | |
| 4 | Leroy Kelly IV | G | Fr | 6'2" | 22-20 | 21.6 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 47.7% | 27.5% | 2.3 | 71.0% | 16.2% | |
| 23 | Chris Mpaka | F | Sr | 6'6" | 24-20 | 17.9 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 52.1% | — | 0.0 | 65.2% | 29.1% | |
| 97 | Andy Sigiscar | F | Fr | 6'9" | 26-10 | 15.3 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 63.7% | — | 0.0 | 56.0% | 23.9% | |
| 3 | DJ Dormu | G | So | 5'9" | 20-2 | 18.9 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 38.3% | 17.1% | 1.8 | 61.5% | 24.8% | |
| 10 | Damion Porter Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 16-0 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 31.3% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 55.6% | 16.4% | |
| 30 | Cameron Thomas | G | Fr | 6'3" | 14-0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 43.8% | 11.1% | 0.6 | 83.3% | 27.4% | |
| 25 | Matyas Vrabel | F | So | 6'10" | 14-0 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 17.8% | |
| 1 | AJ Dent Jr. | F | Jr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 2.5 | — | 26.0% | |
| 5 | Malek Archie | G | Fr | 6'2" | 2-0 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 26.5% | |
| 8 | Joseph Martinez | G | So | 6'3" | 7-0 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 100.0% | 13.3% | |
| 14 | Roy Marom | G | So | 5'8" | 5-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 14.8% | |
| 22 | Jaden Jinks | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
San Diego2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted San Diego's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toneari Lane | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-17 | 26.8 | 11.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 58.2% | 44.0% | 5.8 | 85.0% | 21.8% | |
| 2 | Adrian McIntyre | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-17 | 24.8 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 57.1% | 32.1% | 2.4 | 73.5% | 23.2% | |
| 4 | Juanse Gorosito | G | Sr | 6'0" | 32-17 | 24.3 | 10.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 51.9% | 38.2% | 5.6 | 83.3% | 26.2% | |
| 34 | Vuk Boskovic | F | Fr | 6'7" | 33-18 | 20.3 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 55.7% | 35.8% | 3.3 | 60.5% | 20.0% | |
| 5 | Ty-Laur Johnson | G | Jr | 6'0" | 23-21 | 28.0 | 14.6 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 47.7% | 30.9% | 3.5 | 82.6% | 33.8% | |
| 7 | Assane Diop | F | Jr | 6'9" | 29-19 | 18.9 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 56.4% | 41.9% | 1.5 | 59.3% | 19.4% | |
| 14 | Dominique Ford | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-17 | 17.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 44.6% | 22.9% | 1.5 | 76.4% | 21.1% | |
| 30 | Tim Moore Jr. | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-10 | 14.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 49.7% | 20.0% | 1.8 | 79.7% | 25.0% | |
| 12 | Gavin Ripp | F | Fr | 6'7" | 26-7 | 17.0 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 48.3% | 23.5% | 0.7 | 80.0% | 17.0% | |
| 21 | Alejandro Aviles | F | Fr | 6'10" | 24-8 | 10.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 76.2% | 18.0% | |
| 3 | D'Arrae Goodwin | F | Fr | 6'6" | 14-6 | 14.6 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 53.6% | 33.3% | 2.6 | 66.7% | 20.1% | |
| 22 | Emmanuel Callas | G | Jr | 6'5" | 16-4 | 9.1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 41.7% | — | 0.0 | 60.0% | 8.3% | |
| 24 | Brandon Benjamin | G | Fr | 6'6" | 19-0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 53.6% | 25.0% | 0.2 | 70.0% | 25.7% | |
| 23 | Piotr Winkowski | C | Jr | 6'10" | 15-4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 56.5% | — | 0.0 | 45.5% | 21.4% | |
| 10 | Neel Beniwal | G | Jr | 6'5" | 9-0 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 80.0% | 17.0% | |
| 9 | Josh Hecht | G | Jr | 6'2" | 8-0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.8 | — | 35.5% | |
| 15 | Caleb Versher | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 41.7% | 50.0% | 0.7 | — | 27.3% | |
| 53 | Nick Del Bosque | G | So | 6'0" | 5-0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 23.0% | |
| 6 | Boden Grant | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Kjay Bradley Jr. | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Tarleton St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Tarleton St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jordan Mizell | G | So | 6'1" | 32-31 | 27.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 42.7% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 71.9% | 14.9% | |
| 6 | Kaia Isaac | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-31 | 25.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 49.1% | 35.6% | 2.7 | 85.2% | 15.3% | |
| 2 | Freddy Hicks | G | Sr | 6'5" | 26-17 | 27.0 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 40.9% | 26.9% | 1.0 | 69.4% | 22.4% | |
| 7 | Dior Johnson | G | Jr | 6'3" | 20-2 | 26.2 | 24.0 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 56.7% | 53.8% | 2.6 | 84.9% | 43.8% | |
| 24 | Ocypher Owens | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-14 | 17.2 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 39.6% | 28.1% | 1.1 | 68.1% | 20.0% | |
| 55 | Cam McDowell | G | Sr | 6'5" | 21-7 | 24.0 | 13.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 52.6% | 33.8% | 3.1 | 87.8% | 31.6% | |
| 13 | Kade Douglas | G | Jr | 6'0" | 32-6 | 15.3 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 48.0% | 33.3% | 2.4 | 82.4% | 22.6% | |
| 4 | Leroy Kelly IV | G | Fr | 6'2" | 22-20 | 21.6 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 47.7% | 27.5% | 2.3 | 71.0% | 16.2% | |
| 23 | Chris Mpaka | F | Sr | 6'6" | 24-20 | 17.9 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 52.1% | — | 0.0 | 65.2% | 29.1% | |
| 97 | Andy Sigiscar | F | Fr | 6'9" | 26-10 | 15.3 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 63.7% | — | 0.0 | 56.0% | 23.9% | |
| 3 | DJ Dormu | G | So | 5'9" | 20-2 | 18.9 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 38.3% | 17.1% | 1.8 | 61.5% | 24.8% | |
| 10 | Damion Porter Jr. | G | Fr | 6'2" | 16-0 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 31.3% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 55.6% | 16.4% | |
| 30 | Cameron Thomas | G | Fr | 6'3" | 14-0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 43.8% | 11.1% | 0.6 | 83.3% | 27.4% | |
| 25 | Matyas Vrabel | F | So | 6'10" | 14-0 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 17.8% | |
| 1 | AJ Dent Jr. | F | Jr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 2.5 | — | 26.0% | |
| 5 | Malek Archie | G | Fr | 6'2" | 2-0 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 26.5% | |
| 8 | Joseph Martinez | G | So | 6'3" | 7-0 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 100.0% | 13.3% | |
| 14 | Roy Marom | G | So | 5'8" | 5-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 14.8% | |
| 22 | Jaden Jinks | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Tarleton St
Against the spread
Season
14-14
Home
5-7
Road
9-6
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −1.2
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-13
Home
6-6
Road
8-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −1.0
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Abilene Chrstn | N | L 78–84 | +1.0 | L−5.0 | 135.0 | O162 | 102.0 | 109.8 | 76.5 |
| Mar 5 | UT Arlington | H | L 60–65 | −1.0 | L−6.0 | 136.0 | U125 | 99.2 | 107.4 | 60.5 |
| Feb 28 | CA Baptist | A | L 67–82 | +7.5 | L−7.5 | 139.0 | O149 | 100.2 | 122.7 | 66.8 |
| Feb 26 | Utah Valley | A | L 72–79 | +17.0 | W+10.0 | 141.5 | O151 | 103.7 | 113.8 | 69.4 |
| Feb 21 | Utah Tech | H | L 72–80 | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 141.0 | O152 | 111.1 | 123.4 | 64.8 |
| Feb 19 | Southern Utah | H | W 78–74 | −5.0 | L−1.0 | 145.0 | O152 | 116.5 | 110.5 | 67.0 |
| Feb 16 | Abilene Chrstn | H | W 65–62 OT | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 133.5 | U127 | 85.8 | 81.8 | 75.8 |
| Feb 14 | Abilene Chrstn | A | L 59–73 | +3.0 | L−11.0 | 135.5 | U132 | 84.2 | 104.1 | 70.1 |
| Feb 7 | Southern Utah | A | W 62–59 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 146.5 | U121 | 90.2 | 85.8 | 68.8 |
| Feb 5 | CA Baptist | A | L 55–56 | +10.5 | W+9.5 | 139.0 | U111 | 83.7 | 85.3 | 65.7 |
San Diego
Against the spread
Season
16-15
Home
10-5
Road
4-9
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −3.1
Covered 2 straightCovered 2 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
12-18-1
Home
6-9
Road
6-6-1
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −1.1
Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Seattle U | N | L 56–58 | +8.0 | W+6.0 | 139.0 | U114 | 91.6 | 94.9 | 61.1 |
| Mar 5 | LMU | N | W 66–62 | +5.5 | W+9.5 | 145.5 | U128 | 107.6 | 101.1 | 61.3 |
| Feb 28 | Portland | A | L 74–87 | +3.5 | L−9.5 | 148.5 | O161 | 107.0 | 125.8 | 69.2 |
| Feb 25 | Oregon St | A | L 82–92 OT | +6.5 | L−3.5 | 144.0 | O174 | 110.3 | 123.8 | 74.3 |
| Feb 21 | LMU | H | L 65–77 | +2.5 | L−9.5 | 149.5 | U142 | 104.7 | 124.0 | 62.1 |
| Feb 15 | San Francisco | H | L 79–92 | +5.0 | L−8.0 | 148.0 | O171 | 114.3 | 133.2 | 69.1 |
| Feb 11 | Portland | H | W 71–58 | −2.5 | W+10.5 | 151.5 | U129 | 111.4 | 91.0 | 63.7 |
| Feb 7 | LMU | A | L 63–83 | +6.0 | L−14.0 | 151.5 | U146 | 99.8 | 131.5 | 63.1 |
| Feb 4 | Saint Mary's | A | L 60–87 | +19.5 | L−7.5 | 149.0 | U147 | 94.0 | 136.3 | 63.8 |
| Jan 31 | Oregon St | H | L 76–78 OT | −3.5 | L−5.5 | 150.5 | O154 | 93.0 | 95.4 | 81.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeTarleton StSan Diego
Efficiency
105.0
106.6
108.4
112.0
69.7
68.8
—
—
Shooting
48.3%
51.2%
48.2%
50.8%
32.5%
34.6%
74.2%
74.7%
41.9%
25.8%
Ball control & glass
20.0%
17.5%
23.4%
18.9%
31.5%
28.1%
35.1%
34.5%
10.0%
10.0%
9.6%
10.1%
Style
24.2%
43.7%
47.2%
39.6%
18.1%
15.1%
41.7%
59.1%
39.8%
39.6%
Roster
2.90
3.00
6'3.5"
6'4.7"
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Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputTarleton St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Tarleton St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
San Diego
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted San Diego's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.