CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteTD Garden, Boston, MAHall of Fame Series - Boston
UMass
Efficiency #184
2025-26: 17-16 · 8-12 conf
vs
Boston College
Efficiency #187
2025-26: 11-20 · 4-14 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
72.3
win 50%
Projected
72.3
win 50%
No line posted yet.
Model: MASS −0.1 · total 144.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Boston College 67.4, UMass 70.2 → 69.2 possessions
+2.0
Boston College offense vs UMass defense
−2.8
UMass offense vs Boston College defense
−2.8
Projected total
144.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Boston College offense vs UMass defense
−2.8
UMass offense vs Boston College defense
+2.8
UMass by 0.1
0.1
UMass side ◂▸ Boston College side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to 0.0 against −0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Boston College.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UMass is the faster team (71.0, #52 of 365) and Boston College the slower (66.4, #281). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
144.6
model
Projected team totals
72.3 / 72.3
UMass / Boston College
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.2#36
UMass
67.4#262
Boston College

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageBoston College
Where Boston College struggles: shooting
Boston College shoots an effective 47.0% (#338); UMass allows 52.9% (#262). Expect about 49.6%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions.
GlassBoston College
Boston College gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.9% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Boston College's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Boston College) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UMass at about 35.9% of its shots from three, Boston College about 43.9%.
ClashBoston College
Style clash: ball movement
Boston College creates off the dribble (assists on 47.4% of its baskets); UMass allows assists on 58.6% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 53.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
UMass has the ball
OffenseBoston College allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #99
48.9% #62
-0.2 pt/100
17.8% #263
14.9% #300
+0.7 pt/100
33.3% #80
28.6% #87
+0.7 pt/100
37.0% #130
34.6% #166
+0.1 pt/100
67.3% #339
—
-0.4 pt/100
UMass net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100
Boston College has the ball
OffenseUMass allowsvs D1 avg
47.0% #338
52.9% #262
-2.4 pt/100
15.4% #95
16.8% #167
+0.9 pt/100
28.3% #254
26.1% #20
-2.2 pt/100
32.4% #251
44.6% #348
+0.5 pt/100
65.3% #358
—
-0.6 pt/100
Boston College net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UMassoffense vsBoston Collegedefense
Share of shots by zone
UMass shoots
Boston College allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.7%#12757.1%#11658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.8%#5335.6%#7839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)41.6%#6836.0%#11038.0%
Three35.2%#10031.9%#5933.7%
Boston Collegeoffense vsUMassdefense
Share of shots by zone
Boston College shoots
UMass allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.3%#26063.2%#32958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)45.7%#5545.5%#31339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.0%#10937.6%#14938.0%
Three29.4%#34833.0%#12133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UMass
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#184 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#80
Def reb %
73.9%
#20
Turnover %
17.8%
#263
Forced TO %
16.8%
#167
FT rate
37.0%
#130
FT allowed
44.6%
#348
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−2.4
Boston College
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#219 of 365
Off reb %
28.3%
#254
Def reb %
71.4%
#87
Turnover %
15.4%
#95
Forced TO %
14.9%
#300
FT rate
32.4%
#251
FT allowed
34.6%
#166
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.2

UMass has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#184 of 365) to Boston College’s −0.8 (#219).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UMass2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
24Marcus Banks Jr.GSr6'3"33-3333.016.72.61.81.354.1%37.8%9.083.3%27.3%
3Leonardo BettiolFSr6'9"33-3328.718.17.82.12.761.2%33.3%0.170.3%33.0%
0Danny CarbucciaGFr5'11"33-2727.66.81.86.31.946.7%24.6%1.738.8%19.1%
11Jayden NdjigueGJr6'4"33-3326.86.55.41.91.552.7%23.1%0.870.5%15.0%
1Daniel Hankins-SanfordFSr6'8"30-3028.611.37.11.41.348.4%25.5%1.762.2%24.4%
2Dwayne Wimbley Jr.FFr6'6"33-214.02.32.20.50.934.5%18.4%1.256.3%16.2%
13Luka DamjanacFSo6'10"29-010.42.52.60.70.662.2%27.3%0.464.7%13.7%
4Isaiah PlacideGSr6'4"27-09.24.01.00.30.353.5%41.7%2.269.2%24.1%
25Dimitri ClercFJr6'10"25-19.03.42.80.20.861.8%—0.042.1%22.6%
10Donovan BrownGSr6'2"16-05.50.80.40.40.429.5%25.0%0.8—17.5%
22Charles OutlawFJr6'9"8-03.51.51.00.00.350.0%—0.040.0%27.8%
44Rollie CastineyraGSo6'2"4-04.80.00.00.00.00.0%0.0%1.3—14.4%
7Bilal OsmanFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Josh EngelGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UMassBoston College
Efficiency
108.4
103.8
109.1
104.5
70.2
67.4
—
—
Shooting
53.1%
47.0%
53.2%
49.1%
35.2%
29.4%
67.3%
65.3%
37.0%
32.4%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
15.4%
16.8%
14.9%
33.3%
28.3%
26.1%
28.6%
10.2%
9.2%
7.6%
10.0%
Style
35.4%
42.4%
46.0%
40.9%
12.9%
9.5%
58.4%
47.4%
29.1%
30.0%
Roster
3.03
3.65
6'5.1"
6'6.3"
89.8%
0.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UMass
Returning minutes: 89.8%Returning production: 88.2%
Lost
  • K'Jei Parker 20.8 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
  • Bilal Osman no D1 minutes last season
  • Josh Engel no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Boston College
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: -0.1%
Lost
  • Fred Payne 34.7 mpg, 15.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Donald Hand Jr. 27.8 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Boden Kapke 26.8 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Aidan Shaw 25.5 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Chase Forte 23.3 mpg, 6.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jayden Hastings 22.6 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Ernest Shelton from Merrimack · 36.9 mpg, 15.9 ppg last season
  • Armoni Zeigler from Ball State · 32.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg last season
  • Money Williams from Montana · 31.2 mpg, 20.6 ppg last season
  • Brandon Benjamin from Fairfield · 29.5 mpg, 13.4 ppg last season
  • Andrija Bukumirovic from UT Martin · 28.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg last season
  • JB Frankel from Northeastern · 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg last season

Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Dec 102025-26UMass 76 – 74 Boston College(N)

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.