CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to 0.0 against −0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Boston College.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UMass is the faster team (71.0, #52 of 365) and Boston College the slower (66.4, #281). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.7%#127 | 57.1%#116 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.8%#53 | 35.6%#78 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.6%#68 | 36.0%#110 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.2%#100 | 31.9%#59 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.3%#260 | 63.2%#329 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.7%#55 | 45.5%#313 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.0%#109 | 37.6%#149 | 38.0% |
| Three | 29.4%#348 | 33.0%#121 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersUMass has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#184 of 365) to Boston College’s −0.8 (#219).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Marcus Banks Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 33.0 | 16.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 54.1% | 37.8% | 9.0 | 83.3% | 27.3% | |
| 3 | Leonardo Bettiol | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 28.7 | 18.1 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 61.2% | 33.3% | 0.1 | 70.3% | 33.0% | |
| 0 | Danny Carbuccia | G | Fr | 5'11" | 33-27 | 27.6 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 46.7% | 24.6% | 1.7 | 38.8% | 19.1% | |
| 11 | Jayden Ndjigue | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 26.8 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 52.7% | 23.1% | 0.8 | 70.5% | 15.0% | |
| 1 | Daniel Hankins-Sanford | F | Sr | 6'8" | 30-30 | 28.6 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 48.4% | 25.5% | 1.7 | 62.2% | 24.4% | |
| 2 | Dwayne Wimbley Jr. | F | Fr | 6'6" | 33-2 | 14.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 34.5% | 18.4% | 1.2 | 56.3% | 16.2% | |
| 13 | Luka Damjanac | F | So | 6'10" | 29-0 | 10.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 62.2% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 64.7% | 13.7% | |
| 4 | Isaiah Placide | G | Sr | 6'4" | 27-0 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.5% | 41.7% | 2.2 | 69.2% | 24.1% | |
| 25 | Dimitri Clerc | F | Jr | 6'10" | 25-1 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 61.8% | — | 0.0 | 42.1% | 22.6% | |
| 10 | Donovan Brown | G | Sr | 6'2" | 16-0 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 29.5% | 25.0% | 0.8 | — | 17.5% | |
| 22 | Charles Outlaw | F | Jr | 6'9" | 8-0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 27.8% | |
| 44 | Rollie Castineyra | G | So | 6'2" | 4-0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 14.4% | |
| 7 | Bilal Osman | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Josh Engel | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ernest Sheltonat Merrimack | G | Sr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 36.9 | 15.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 51.3% | 34.6% | 8.4 | 87.2% | 25.2% | |
| 5 | Armoni Zeiglerat Ball State | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-29 | 32.4 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 45.0% | 33.0% | 3.0 | 77.9% | 28.0% | |
| 0 | Money Williamsat Montana | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 31.2 | 20.6 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 54.7% | 34.0% | 4.2 | 85.5% | 37.4% | |
| 20 | Brandon Benjaminat Fairfield | F | So | 6'8" | 32-31 | 31.3 | 14.2 | 10.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 56.8% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 68.6% | 26.5% | |
| 1 | Andrija Bukumirovicat UT Martin | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 29.3 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 59.0% | 36.4% | 4.0 | 57.5% | 26.5% | |
| 11 | JB Frankelat Northeastern | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-13 | 20.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 42.9% | 29.7% | 3.7 | 84.0% | 20.4% | |
| 33 | Luke Hungerat G Washington | F | Sr | 6'10" | 33-13 | 19.2 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 52.9% | 31.1% | 1.4 | 81.7% | 25.7% | |
| 13 | Aly Tounkaraat Arkansas St | F | Jr | 7'0" | 32-21 | 18.2 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 62.9% | — | 0.0 | 36.8% | 13.9% | |
| 2 | Colby Dugganat Charleston | F | Sr | 6'7" | 19-19 | 28.0 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 47.9% | 29.5% | 4.1 | 86.4% | 21.4% | |
| 7 | Jacob Furphyat UConn | G | So | 6'5" | 14-0 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 15.7% | |
| 12 | Jameson O'Tooleat Fordham | G | Sr | 6'3" | 7-1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 31.3% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 100.0% | 23.0% | |
| 21 | Will Eggemeier | G | Sr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 61.3% | |
| 22 | Jack Bailey | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | ak Smrekar | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Jordan Ghee | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Marcus Banks Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 33.0 | 16.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 54.1% | 37.8% | 9.0 | 83.3% | 27.3% | |
| 3 | Leonardo Bettiol | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 28.7 | 18.1 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 61.2% | 33.3% | 0.1 | 70.3% | 33.0% | |
| 0 | Danny Carbuccia | G | Fr | 5'11" | 33-27 | 27.6 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 46.7% | 24.6% | 1.7 | 38.8% | 19.1% | |
| 11 | Jayden Ndjigue | G | Jr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 26.8 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 52.7% | 23.1% | 0.8 | 70.5% | 15.0% | |
| 1 | Daniel Hankins-Sanford | F | Sr | 6'8" | 30-30 | 28.6 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 48.4% | 25.5% | 1.7 | 62.2% | 24.4% | |
| 2 | Dwayne Wimbley Jr. | F | Fr | 6'6" | 33-2 | 14.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 34.5% | 18.4% | 1.2 | 56.3% | 16.2% | |
| 13 | Luka Damjanac | F | So | 6'10" | 29-0 | 10.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 62.2% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 64.7% | 13.7% | |
| 4 | Isaiah Placide | G | Sr | 6'4" | 27-0 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 53.5% | 41.7% | 2.2 | 69.2% | 24.1% | |
| 25 | Dimitri Clerc | F | Jr | 6'10" | 25-1 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 61.8% | — | 0.0 | 42.1% | 22.6% | |
| 10 | Donovan Brown | G | Sr | 6'2" | 16-0 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 29.5% | 25.0% | 0.8 | — | 17.5% | |
| 22 | Charles Outlaw | F | Jr | 6'9" | 8-0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 27.8% | |
| 44 | Rollie Castineyra | G | So | 6'2" | 4-0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 14.4% | |
| 7 | Bilal Osman | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Josh Engel | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 | Toledo | N | L 67–77 | +3.0 | L−7.0 | 158.0 | U144 | 95.3 | 109.5 | 70.3 |
| Mar 12 | #20Miami OH | N | W 87–83 | +8.0 | W+12.0 | 163.5 | O170 | 126.0 | 120.2 | 69.0 |
| Mar 3 | Ohio | H | W 94–82 | −1.5 | W+10.5 | 156.5 | O176 | 122.6 | 106.9 | 76.7 |
| Feb 28 | Bowling Green | A | L 62–81 | +4.0 | L−15.0 | 151.5 | U143 | 94.5 | 123.5 | 65.6 |
| Feb 24 | Ball State | A | L 73–74 OT | −4.5 | L−5.5 | 143.5 | O147 | 99.3 | 100.6 | 73.5 |
| Feb 21 | Buffalo | H | L 82–86 OT | −7.5 | L−11.5 | 154.0 | O168 | 113.3 | 118.9 | 72.3 |
| Feb 17 | #22Miami OH | H | L 77–86 | +3.0 | L−6.0 | 163.5 | U163 | 109.0 | 121.7 | 70.6 |
| Feb 13 | Akron | A | L 92–99 | +13.0 | W+6.0 | 162.5 | O191 | 117.6 | 126.5 | 78.3 |
| Feb 7 | Coastal | A | L 91–94 3OT | −2.5 | L−5.5 | 148.5 | O185 | 108.6 | 112.2 | 83.8 |
| Feb 3 | C Michigan | H | W 95–89 | −11.5 | L−5.5 | 152.5 | O184 | 136.0 | 127.4 | 69.8 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Notre Dame | H | W 77–69 | +2.5 | W+10.5 | 142.0 | O146 | 102.4 | 91.7 | 75.2 |
| Mar 3 | Virginia Tech | A | L 63–72 | +11.5 | W+2.5 | 143.0 | U135 | 95.2 | 108.8 | 66.2 |
| Feb 28 | Miami | A | L 54–76 | +16.0 | L−6.0 | 144.5 | U130 | 83.6 | 117.6 | 64.6 |
| Feb 25 | Wake Forest | H | W 68–67 | +4.0 | W+5.0 | 144.5 | U135 | 106.9 | 105.3 | 63.6 |
| Feb 21 | SMU | A | L 70–94 | +15.5 | L−8.5 | 150.0 | O164 | 106.6 | 143.1 | 65.7 |
| Feb 17 | Florida St | A | L 72–80 | +12.0 | W+4.0 | 148.0 | O152 | 107.6 | 119.6 | 66.9 |
| Feb 14 | California | H | L 75–86 | +3.5 | L−7.5 | 141.0 | O161 | 116.1 | 133.1 | 64.6 |
| Feb 11 | Stanford | H | L 64–70 | +3.0 | L−3.0 | 139.5 | U134 | 93.4 | 102.2 | 68.5 |
| Feb 7 | Miami | H | L 68–74 | +8.0 | W+2.0 | 141.5 | O142 | 97.4 | 106.0 | 69.8 |
| Feb 3 | #4Duke | A | L 49–67 | +26.5 | W+8.5 | 142.0 | U116 | 79.8 | 109.1 | 61.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- K'Jei Parker 20.8 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Ball State
- Bilal Osman no D1 minutes last season
- Josh Engel no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 90% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
- Fred Payne 34.7 mpg, 15.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Donald Hand Jr. 27.8 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Boden Kapke 26.8 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Aidan Shaw 25.5 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chase Forte 23.3 mpg, 6.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jayden Hastings 22.6 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ernest Shelton from Merrimack · 36.9 mpg, 15.9 ppg last season
- Armoni Zeigler from Ball State · 32.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg last season
- Money Williams from Montana · 31.2 mpg, 20.6 ppg last season
- Brandon Benjamin from Fairfield · 29.5 mpg, 13.4 ppg last season
- Andrija Bukumirovic from UT Martin · 28.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg last season
- JB Frankel from Northeastern · 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Dec 10 | 2025-26 | UMass 76 – 74 Boston College(N) |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.