CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLenovo Center, Raleigh, NC

ETSU

Efficiency #110

2025-26: 23-11 · 15-6 conf

NC State

Efficiency #34

2025-26: 20-14 · 11-9 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

71.5

win 20%

Projected

81.3

win 80%

No line posted yet.

Model: NCSU −9.9 · total 152.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: NC State 69.4, ETSU 67.4 → 68.5 possessions

+0.4

NC State offense vs ETSU defense

+5.0

ETSU offense vs NC State defense

−0.9

Projected total

152.8

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

NC State offense vs ETSU defense

+5.0

ETSU offense vs NC State defense

+0.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

NC State by 9.9

9.9

ETSU side ◂▸ NC State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 152.7 against a projected 152.8, and the margin steps add to +9.8 against +9.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help NC State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NC State is the faster team (69.5, #112 of 365) and ETSU the slower (66.5, #268). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.8

model

Projected team totals

71.5 / 81.3

ETSU / NC State

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.4#257

ETSU

69.4#88

NC State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageETSU

Where ETSU scores: shooting

ETSU shoots an effective 55.3% (#33); NC State allows 52.7% (#256). Expect about 54.3%, 3.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.3 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageNC State

Where NC State scores: shooting

NC State shoots an effective 55.0% (#35); ETSU allows 51.0% (#161). Expect about 53.3%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashNC State

Style match: 3-point volume

NC State takes 43.4% of its shots from three; ETSU lets opponents take 47.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.9% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (NC State) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect ETSU at about 41.6% of its shots from three, NC State about 47.9%.

GlassNC State

NC State gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.6% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against NC State's offense.

ClashNC State

Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers

NC State (#14 in live-ball turnovers) against ETSU (#11 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.8%. Historically ETSU's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).

ETSU has the ball

OffenseNC State allowsvs D1 avg

55.3% #33

52.7% #256

+4.3 pt/100

15.2% #78

18.2% #90

+0.0 pt/100

28.3% #252

30.5% #181

-0.8 pt/100

35.0% #180

36.9% #235

+0.1 pt/100

74.7% #93

—

+0.2 pt/100

ETSU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.9 pts/100

NC State has the ball

OffenseETSU allowsvs D1 avg

55.0% #35

51.0% #161

+2.9 pt/100

13.1% #8

18.5% #74

+1.2 pt/100

28.2% #258

27.9% #64

-1.7 pt/100

35.1% #175

36.4% #225

+0.1 pt/100

76.8% #36

—

+0.4 pt/100

NC State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

ETSUoffense vsNC Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

ETSU shoots

42.8

4.8

15.4

36.9

NC State allows

38.3

5.2

11.9

44.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.9%#52	58.4%#160	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.1%#21	37.2%#117	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.1%#77	37.2%#137	38.0%
Three	34.7%#132	35.5%#281	33.7%

NC Stateoffense vsETSUdefense

Share of shots by zone

NC State shoots

39.1

5.5

13.0

42.4

ETSU allows

36.1

3.7

12.5

47.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#148	59.6%#210	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	28.4%#354	44.8%#293	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.6%#273	33.8%#48	38.0%
Three	38.8%#6	32.9%#110	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

ETSU

+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#86 of 365

Off reb %

28.3%

#252

Def reb %

72.1%

#64

Turnover %

15.2%

#78

Forced TO %

18.5%

#74

FT rate

35.0%

#180

FT allowed

36.4%

#225

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+1.2

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.3

NC State

+2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#80 of 365

Off reb %

28.2%

#258

Def reb %

69.5%

#181

Turnover %

13.1%

Forced TO %

18.2%

#90

FT rate

35.1%

#175

FT allowed

36.9%

#235

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+2.5

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.4

NC State has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.4 (#80 of 365) to ETSU’s +2.2 (#86).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

ETSU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Brian Taylor II	G	Sr	6'4"	34-34	33.2	14.6	3.7	2.9	1.5	53.2%	34.9%	4.5	76.4%	26.3%
13	Blake Barkley	F	So	6'8"	32-32	28.6	14.6	5.8	1.2	1.6	62.2%	38.3%	1.5	84.0%	26.2%
15	Cam Morris III	F	Sr	6'8"	33-33	25.6	13.2	5.2	1.5	1.4	59.1%	32.3%	0.9	66.9%	28.4%
4	Jaylen Smith	G	Jr	5'11"	34-3	24.7	9.1	2.6	2.9	1.7	49.4%	34.4%	4.4	80.0%	25.3%
2	Maki Johnson	G	Jr	6'4"	34-1	22.5	5.7	3.2	0.9	0.4	57.9%	38.5%	4.0	64.3%	13.9%
5	Allen Strothers	G	Sr	6'1"	34-34	21.7	4.1	2.1	2.9	1.3	51.8%	32.1%	0.8	70.3%	13.9%
35	Jordan McCullum	F	So	6'8"	34-32	21.6	8.3	3.7	0.9	1.1	55.5%	20.5%	1.3	69.8%	22.8%
24	Isaiah Sutherland	F	Fr	6'7"	24-0	11.0	3.5	1.8	0.2	0.2	52.7%	33.9%	2.3	55.6%	19.2%
55	Milton Matthews III	G	Sr	6'3"	23-0	9.9	4.0	1.4	0.5	0.1	57.9%	38.7%	2.7	75.0%	21.1%
21	Gabe Sisk	G	Jr	6'5"	18-0	9.9	3.4	2.3	0.7	0.6	51.2%	10.0%	0.6	90.0%	20.3%
14	Brayden Crump	F	So	6'8"	11-1	15.8	6.4	3.1	0.5	0.5	54.3%	31.3%	1.5	70.0%	22.1%
30	Henry Sisemore	F	Fr	6'8"	7-0	3.0	1.1	1.6	0.3	0.1	44.4%	—	0.0	0.0%	29.3%
25	Joseph Carter	G	Fr	6'1"	6-0	2.3	0.0	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	23.9%
23	Frederico Whitaker Jr.	G	Fr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Maddox Huff	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

NC State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Darrion Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	33-33	30.1	14.0	4.6	2.8	1.5	51.1%	40.4%	5.8	77.3%	28.0%
2	Paul McNeil Jr.	G	So	6'5"	34-32	28.7	13.8	3.6	0.8	0.4	59.7%	42.7%	7.2	82.4%	22.7%
22	Ven-Allen Lubin	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	28.1	13.6	7.1	0.9	0.8	67.4%	27.3%	0.3	74.3%	21.8%
21	Terrance Arceneaux	G	Jr	6'6"	30-0	15.8	3.8	2.6	0.5	0.4	48.5%	32.6%	1.5	77.3%	14.8%
13	Musa Sagnia	F	Fr	6'10"	34-1	12.4	2.3	2.8	0.2	0.5	60.5%	25.0%	0.1	45.5%	11.3%
7	Alyn Breed	G	Sr	6'3"	21-7	14.8	4.5	1.9	1.3	0.4	47.3%	34.5%	1.4	89.3%	17.7%
15	Jerry Deng	F	Jr	6'9"	8-0	12.6	6.1	2.1	0.4	0.4	46.7%	32.4%	4.3	85.7%	28.9%
12	Scottie Ebube	C	Sr	6'10"	17-1	4.1	1.1	1.0	0.0	0.4	88.9%	—	0.0	23.1%	17.5%
0	Jordan Snell	G	Sr	6'3"	8-1	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.0	37.5%	28.6%	0.9	—	23.8%
45	Colt Langdon	F	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.8	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	25.8%
10	Jayme Kontuniemi	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Zymicah Wilkins	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

ETSU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Brian Taylor II	G	Sr	6'4"	34-34	33.2	14.6	3.7	2.9	1.5	53.2%	34.9%	4.5	76.4%	26.3%
13	Blake Barkley	F	So	6'8"	32-32	28.6	14.6	5.8	1.2	1.6	62.2%	38.3%	1.5	84.0%	26.2%
15	Cam Morris III	F	Sr	6'8"	33-33	25.6	13.2	5.2	1.5	1.4	59.1%	32.3%	0.9	66.9%	28.4%
4	Jaylen Smith	G	Jr	5'11"	34-3	24.7	9.1	2.6	2.9	1.7	49.4%	34.4%	4.4	80.0%	25.3%
2	Maki Johnson	G	Jr	6'4"	34-1	22.5	5.7	3.2	0.9	0.4	57.9%	38.5%	4.0	64.3%	13.9%
5	Allen Strothers	G	Sr	6'1"	34-34	21.7	4.1	2.1	2.9	1.3	51.8%	32.1%	0.8	70.3%	13.9%
35	Jordan McCullum	F	So	6'8"	34-32	21.6	8.3	3.7	0.9	1.1	55.5%	20.5%	1.3	69.8%	22.8%
24	Isaiah Sutherland	F	Fr	6'7"	24-0	11.0	3.5	1.8	0.2	0.2	52.7%	33.9%	2.3	55.6%	19.2%
55	Milton Matthews III	G	Sr	6'3"	23-0	9.9	4.0	1.4	0.5	0.1	57.9%	38.7%	2.7	75.0%	21.1%
21	Gabe Sisk	G	Jr	6'5"	18-0	9.9	3.4	2.3	0.7	0.6	51.2%	10.0%	0.6	90.0%	20.3%
14	Brayden Crump	F	So	6'8"	11-1	15.8	6.4	3.1	0.5	0.5	54.3%	31.3%	1.5	70.0%	22.1%
30	Henry Sisemore	F	Fr	6'8"	7-0	3.0	1.1	1.6	0.3	0.1	44.4%	—	0.0	0.0%	29.3%
25	Joseph Carter	G	Fr	6'1"	6-0	2.3	0.0	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	23.9%
23	Frederico Whitaker Jr.	G	Fr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Maddox Huff	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

ETSU

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

8-7

Road

6-8

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread 5 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

17-14-1

Home

7-7-1

Road

9-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +3.6

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	FurmanAdjEM #163	N	L 61–76	−1.0	L−16.0	138.0	U137	98.6	122.9	61.8
Mar 8	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	N	W 69–67	−3.0	L−1.0	146.0	U136	105.5	102.4	65.4
Mar 7	The CitadelAdjEM #348	N	W 83–76	−15.0	L−8.0	139.0	O159	127.7	116.9	65.0
Feb 28	MercerAdjEM #161	A	L 76–82	+1.5	L−4.5	151.0	O158	119.0	128.4	63.9
Feb 25	WoffordAdjEM #235	H	L 69–72	−7.0	L−10.0	150.0	U141	103.8	108.3	66.5
Feb 21	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	A	W 87–75	−6.0	W+6.0	149.0	O162	130.1	112.1	66.9
Feb 18	FurmanAdjEM #163	A	W 78–69	+1.5	W+10.5	141.0	O147	114.4	101.2	68.2
Feb 14	SamfordAdjEM #202	H	L 72–82 OT	−6.0	L−16.0	145.5	O154	95.7	109.0	75.2
Feb 11	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	H	W 73–61	−10.0	W+2.0	145.0	U134	110.3	92.2	66.2
Feb 7	VMIAdjEM #361	A	W 87–70	−14.5	W+2.5	144.0	O157	123.2	99.1	70.6

NC State

Against the spread

Season

15-17-2

Home

8-9

Road

4-5-1

Last 10

2-7-1

avg cover −9.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

21-13

Home

9-8

Road

8-2

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +8.7

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	#11TexasAdjEM #38	N	L 66–68	−1.0	L−3.0	157.5	U134	97.5	100.5	67.7
Mar 12	#10VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	L 74–81	+7.0	P0.0	152.0	O155	108.0	118.2	68.5
Mar 11	PittAdjEM #120	N	W 98–88	−9.0	W+1.0	144.5	O186	148.8	133.6	65.8
Mar 7	StanfordAdjEM #77	H	L 84–85	−9.0	L−10.0	152.5	O169	122.3	123.7	68.7
Mar 2	#1DukeAdjEM #2	H	L 64–93	+9.0	L−20.0	150.5	O157	99.3	144.3	64.5
Feb 28	Notre DameAdjEM #106	A	L 90–96 OT	−6.5	L−12.5	155.0	O186	126.1	134.5	71.4
Feb 24	#11VirginiaAdjEM #15	A	L 61–90	+6.0	L−23.0	152.0	U151	86.7	128.0	70.3
Feb 17	#16North CarolinaAdjEM #29	H	W 82–58	−7.5	W+16.5	155.5	U140	127.6	90.2	64.3
Feb 14	MiamiAdjEM #30	H	L 76–77	−5.5	L−6.5	158.0	U153	117.3	118.8	64.8
Feb 9	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	A	L 77–118	+7.0	L−34.0	161.5	O195	95.7	146.7	80.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ETSUNC State

Efficiency

110.1

117.3

107.0

105.5

67.4

69.4

—

Shooting

55.3%

55.0%

57.2%

52.6%

34.7%

38.8%

74.7%

76.8%

35.0%

35.1%

Ball control & glass

15.2%

13.1%

18.5%

18.2%

28.3%

28.2%

27.9%

30.5%

8.6%

7.4%

7.5%

9.4%

Style

37.8%

43.4%

46.9%

39.8%

12.2%

12.9%

50.8%

54.6%

34.9%

31.0%

Roster

3.08

3.11

6'4.7"

6'6.7"

—

63.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

ETSU

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

NC State

Returning minutes: 63.1%Returning production: 61.6%

Lost

Quadir Copeland 28.9 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tre Holloman 24.0 mpg, 8.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Matt Able 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to North Carolina

Added

Zymicah Wilkins no D1 minutes last season
Jayme Kontuniemi no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 63% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.