Incarnate Word Cardinals vs Texas State Bobcats basketball preview & prediction
Wed, Nov 18 · 8:00 PM ET · Strahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX
Non-conferenceStrahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX
Incarnate Word
0-3 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #337
@
Texas St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #190
Wed, Nov 18 · 8:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Incarnate Word is the faster team (71.9, #141 of 365) and Texas St the slower (62.8, #349). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.0
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.3#206
Incarnate Word
68.2#317
Texas St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Texas St has the ball+3.7
Incarnate Word has the ball−16.6
Texas St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 53.1% #137 · UIW allows 53.1% #225+2.9
✓Wins second chancesOR% 32.0% #172 · UIW allows 35.8% #266+1.0
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.1% #218 · UIW forces 18.6% #149 · ~13 turnovers−0.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 42.9% #105 · UIW allows 38.2% #194 · FT 71.4% #151+0.4
Incarnate Word has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 41.7% #313 · TXST allows 44.1% #68−7.9
✗Coughs it upTO% 25.5% #338 · TXST forces 23.9% #42 · ~18 turnovers−6.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 22.9% #311 · TXST allows 35.7% #262−1.6
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 42.7% #110 · TXST allows 27.5% #68 · FT 64.2% #270−0.6
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootIncarnate Wordoffense vsTexas Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Incarnate Word shoots
31.3
11.7
10.9
46.1
Texas St allows
41.7
4.2
22.9
31.3
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.0%#261 | 55.0%#134 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 26.7%#248 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.9%#94 | 45.5%#265 | 34.7% |
| Three | 25.0%#299 | 17.6%#6 | 32.5% |
Texas Stoffense vsIncarnate Worddefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas St shoots
48.9
14.9
10.6
25.5
Incarnate Word allows
41.4
5.3
10.5
42.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 47.8%#291 | 55.6%#137 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 57.1%#53 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 80.0%#9 | 56.3%#318 | 34.7% |
| Three | 30.8%#213 | 33.3%#185 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineIncarnate Word
−7.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#284 of 365
Off reb %
22.9%
#311
Def reb %
64.2%
#266
Turnover %
25.5%
#338
Forced TO %
18.6%
#149
FT rate
42.7%
#110
FT allowed
38.2%
#194
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.9
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−5.2
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Texas St
+6.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#87 of 365
Off reb %
32.0%
#172
Def reb %
64.3%
#262
Turnover %
19.1%
#218
Forced TO %
23.9%
#42
FT rate
42.9%
#105
FT allowed
27.5%
#68
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+4.1
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed+2.7
Texas St has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.5 (#87 of 365) to Incarnate Word’s −7.8 (#284).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notIncarnate Word2026-27 numbers · last game: UTEP, Nov 8
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 32.7 | 35 | — | Started last | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 5.0 | 75.0% | 18.4% | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 3-2 | 29.7 | 32 | — | Bench | 9.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 30.4% | 18.8% | 5.3 | 80.0% | 23.6% | |
| 21 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 3-3 | 29.3 | 27 | — | Started last | 12.3 | 6.3 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 58.6% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 25.6% | |
| 0 | F | So | 6'7" | 3-3 | 28.0 | 37 | — | Started last | 7.3 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 35.2% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 50.0% | 22.4% | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 2-2 | 33.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 11.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 28.9% | 23.1% | 6.5 | 75.0% | 29.1% | |
| 1 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 16.7 | 17 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 50.0% | 37.5% | 2.7 | 50.0% | 18.6% | |
| 8 | F | Fr | 6'6" | 3-1 | 12.3 | 11 | — | Started last | 2.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 12.5% | |
| 35 | C | Fr | 7'0" | 3-0 | 12.0 | 13 | — | Bench | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.9% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 12.9% | |
| 6 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-1 | 12.0 | 24 | — | Started last | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 27.0% | |
| 10 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 5.7 | 2 | — | Bench | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 25.1% | |
| 7 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 3.7 | 2 | — | Bench | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | — | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 11.9% |
Into the starting lineup: Krisnan-Cole Ioane.Into the starting lineup: Jayden Thomas.Out of the starting lineup: Ismail Habib.Out of the starting lineup: Mekhi Conner.
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesIncarnate Word
Against the spread
Season
0-3
Home
0-1
Road
0-2
Last 10
0-3
avg cover −9.8
Missed the spread 3 straight
Over / under
Season
0-3
Home
0-1
Road
0-2
Last 10
0-3
avg vs total −12.7
Under 3 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | UTEP | A | L 60–79 | +13.5 | L−5.5 | 142.5 | U139 | 90.8 | 119.6 | 66.0 |
| Nov 5 | Chicago St | H | L 54–66 | −8.5 | L−20.5 | 143.5 | U120 | 71.7 | 87.6 | 75.3 |
| Nov 2 | Oklahoma St | A | L 60–91 | +27.5 | L−3.5 | 162.0 | U151 | 80.8 | 122.6 | 74.2 |
| Mar 2 | SF Austin | H | L 68–76 | +7.0 | L−1.0 | 143.5 | O144 | 113.0 | 126.2 | 60.2 |
| Feb 28 | Lamar | H | W 72–60 | −1.0 | W+11.0 | 138.0 | U132 | 113.3 | 94.4 | 63.6 |
| Feb 23 | N'Western St | A | L 49–54 | +2.5 | L−2.5 | 138.0 | U103 | 81.6 | 89.9 | 60.1 |
| Feb 21 | East Texas A&M | A | W 82–73 | +4.0 | W+13.0 | 146.5 | O155 | 143.4 | 127.6 | 57.2 |
| Feb 16 | LSU N Orleans | H | L 64–78 | −2.0 | L−16.0 | 153.5 | U142 | 99.2 | 120.9 | 64.5 |
| Feb 14 | Nicholls | H | L 83–91 | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 149.0 | O174 | 126.5 | 138.7 | 65.6 |
| Feb 9 | SE Louisiana | A | L 62–74 | +1.0 | L−11.0 | 137.5 | U136 | 101.5 | 121.1 | 61.1 |
Texas St
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +1.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −20.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | UT Rio Grande | A | W 72–65 | −5.5 | W+1.5 | 138.0 | U137 | — | — | — |
| Nov 5 | Howard Payne Yellow Jackets | H | W 135–66 | — | — | — | — | 147.9 | 72.3 | 91.3 |
| Nov 2 | Texas A&M-CC | H | W 67–55 | −10.5 | W+1.5 | 142.5 | U122 | 106.7 | 87.6 | 62.8 |
| Mar 6 | Southern Miss | N | L 77–81 | −1.5 | L−5.5 | 140.0 | O158 | 111.5 | 117.3 | 69.0 |
| Feb 27 | App State | H | W 60–57 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 135.0 | U117 | 98.7 | 93.8 | 60.8 |
| Feb 21 | Louisiana | A | L 54–67 | −3.0 | L−16.0 | 134.0 | U121 | 90.3 | 112.1 | 59.8 |
| Feb 19 | South Alabama | A | W 90–82 OT | +4.0 | W+12.0 | 137.5 | O172 | 123.5 | 112.6 | 72.8 |
| Feb 14 | UL Monroe | H | W 95–84 | −14.0 | L−3.0 | 149.0 | O179 | 148.1 | 131.0 | 64.1 |
| Feb 11 | Troy | H | W 74–62 | +5.0 | W+17.0 | 140.5 | U136 | 116.2 | 97.4 | 63.7 |
| Feb 7 | W Michigan | H | W 77–61 | −6.5 | W+9.5 | 146.5 | U138 | 119.8 | 94.9 | 64.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeIncarnate WordTexas St
Efficiency
97.6
103.2
111.0
105.0
70.3
68.2
-2.7
-1.6
Shooting
41.7%
53.1%
44.9%
55.6%
25.0%
30.8%
64.2%
71.4%
42.7%
42.9%
Ball control & glass
25.5%
19.1%
18.6%
23.9%
22.9%
32.0%
35.8%
35.7%
13.9%
8.0%
16.9%
8.3%
Style
43.3%
26.5%
40.2%
44.8%
20.1%
11.9%
50.9%
54.2%
29.0%
45.8%
Roster
2.76
2.60
6'4.7"
6'5.1"
0.0%
40.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputIncarnate Word
Returning minutes: 0.5%Returning production: 0.6%
Lost
- Tahj Staveskie 35.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg · transferred to Akron
- Davion Bailey 34.4 mpg, 18.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Harold Woods 30.3 mpg, 8.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jordan Pyke 22.1 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Arkansas St
- Love Bettis 16.5 mpg, 4.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Marcus Glover 15.4 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Ismail Habib from S Indiana · 29.1 mpg, 13.3 ppg last season
- Jayden Thomas new to D1 · 28.0 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
- Mekhi Conner from Sacred Heart · 27.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg last season
- Brandon McCreesh from Bucknell · 6.7 mpg, 1.8 ppg last season
- D'Arrae Goodwin from San Diego · 6.2 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
- Godswill Erheriene from Seton Hall · 1.4 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Texas St
Returning minutes: 54.2%Returning production: 61.6%
Lost
- Kyndall Davis 22.0 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Franck Emmou 21.8 mpg, 7.0 ppg · transferred to Tarleton St
- Jalen Bolden 16.3 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tay Knox 14.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Makai Willis 12.8 mpg, 6.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaelyn Lee 4.3 mpg, 1.5 ppg · transferred to Prairie View
Added
- KJ Younger from UNC Greensboro · 28.5 mpg, 15.1 ppg last season
- Quel'Ron House from S Illinois · 28.2 mpg, 14.2 ppg last season
- Ronald Jessamy from Bakersfield · 25.2 mpg, 13.0 ppg last season
- Paul Djobet from Omaha · 18.1 mpg, 10.6 ppg last season
- Caleb Steger from Boston College · 11.3 mpg, 3.3 ppg last season
- King Sanders no D1 minutes last season
Returns 54% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 18
- Jackson St at Baylor · 12:00 PM ET
- Navy at Georgetown · 6:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Penn State · 6:30 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at E Michigan · 6:30 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Winthrop · 6:30 PM ET
- Samford at SC Upstate · 6:30 PM ET
- Tennessee Tech at UNC Asheville · 6:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Lafayette · 7:00 PM ET
- Brown at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at UIC · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at FDU · 7:00 PM ET
- UNC Wilmington at Long Island · 7:00 PM ET
- NC Central at George Mason · 7:00 PM ET
- Siena at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Yale · 7:00 PM ET
- Morehead St at Ohio · 7:00 PM ET
- Elon at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Morgan St at NC A&T · 7:00 PM ET
- VMI at Longwood · 7:00 PM ET
- Furman at Radford · 7:00 PM ET
- FGCU at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Merrimack · 7:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at La Salle · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard vs Duquesne · 7:00 PM ET
- James Madison at Towson · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at Presbyterian · 7:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Marquette · 7:30 PM ET
- Youngstown St at Cincinnati · 7:30 PM ET
- LSU N Orleans at Texas Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Campbell at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- Boston College at Harvard · 8:00 PM ET
- Wichita St at Loyola Chicago · 8:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at LSU · 8:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Stonehill · 8:00 PM ET
- Cornell at Syracuse · 8:00 PM ET
- Purdue FW at Bradley · 8:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at Arkansas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Florida A&M at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at Gardner-Webb · 8:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Nebraska · 8:30 PM ET
- Bethune at Creighton · 9:00 PM ET
- UConn at Arizona · 9:00 PM ET
- Portland at Colorado · 9:00 PM ET
- Fresno St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- N Colorado at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
- Weber St at Utah State · 9:00 PM ET
- N Dakota St at Colorado St · 9:00 PM ET
- UC Riverside at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Idaho at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Washington St vs Hawai'i · 10:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at San Diego St · 10:00 PM ET
- Fullerton at UCLA · 10:30 PM ET
- Louisiana at San Francisco · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.