CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceColonial Life Arena, Columbia, SC
Elon
Efficiency #228
2025-26: 14-18 · 6-13 conf
@
South Carolina
Efficiency #123
2025-26: 13-19 · 4-15 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
71.2
win 26%
Projected
78.6
win 74%
No line posted yet.
Model: SC −7.4 · total 149.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: South Carolina 67.6, Elon 68.0 → 67.3 possessions
−2.2
South Carolina offense vs Elon defense
+3.7
Elon offense vs South Carolina defense
+0.1
Projected total
149.8
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
South Carolina offense vs Elon defense
+3.7
Elon offense vs South Carolina defense
−0.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
South Carolina by 7.4
7.4
Elon side ◂▸ South Carolina side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +7.5 against +7.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Carolina.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, South Carolina is the faster team (68.0, #202 of 365) and Elon the slower (67.9, #205). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.8
model
Projected team totals
71.2 / 78.6
Elon / South Carolina
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#209
Elon
67.6#241
South Carolina
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageElon
Where Elon scores: ball control
Elon turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#134); South Carolina forces turnovers on 14.6% of opponent possessions (#314). Expect about 14.9%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
ClashSouth Carolina
Style match: 3-point volume
South Carolina takes 44.4% of its shots from three; Elon lets opponents take 44.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.6% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (South Carolina, Elon's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Elon at about 40.1% of its shots from three, South Carolina about 46.6%.
AdvantageSouth Carolina
Where South Carolina scores: ball control
South Carolina turns it over on 14.5% of possessions (#42); Elon forces turnovers on 16.4% of opponent possessions (#193). Expect about 15.2%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.
ClashElon
Style clash: 3-point volume
Elon takes 43.2% of its shots from three; South Carolina runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Elon has the ball
OffenseSouth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #137
51.6% #188
+1.0 pt/100
15.9% #134
14.6% #314
+2.3 pt/100
32.2% #116
32.1% #263
+1.3 pt/100
33.5% #222
34.0% #151
-0.2 pt/100
71.4% #225
—
-0.1 pt/100
Elon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.3 pts/100
South Carolina has the ball
OffenseElon allowsvs D1 avg
50.3% #226
54.0% #300
+1.1 pt/100
14.5% #42
16.4% #193
+1.9 pt/100
27.2% #289
33.5% #307
-0.5 pt/100
36.7% #137
34.6% #169
+0.1 pt/100
78.1% #14
—
+0.5 pt/100
South Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersElonoffense vsSouth Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
Elon shoots
44.9
3.1
9.2
42.8
South Carolina allows
38.5
7.1
18.2
36.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.0%#198 | 63.9%#340 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.5%#256 | 35.3%#65 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 29.9%#354 | 40.5%#258 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.3%#154 | 31.8%#56 | 33.7% |
South Carolinaoffense vsElondefense
Share of shots by zone
South Carolina shoots
33.0
7.1
15.4
44.5
Elon allows
35.8
5.7
14.1
44.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.7%#130 | 61.8%#297 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.8%#200 | 42.7%#241 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 43.4%#32 | 35.1%#82 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.1%#317 | 36.5%#328 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersElon
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#186 of 365
Off reb %
32.2%
#116
Def reb %
66.5%
#307
Turnover %
15.9%
#134
Forced TO %
16.4%
#193
FT rate
33.5%
#222
FT allowed
34.6%
#169
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.2
South Carolina
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#203 of 365
Off reb %
27.2%
#289
Def reb %
67.9%
#263
Turnover %
14.5%
#42
Forced TO %
14.6%
#314
FT rate
36.7%
#137
FT allowed
34.0%
#151
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn+0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.3
Elon has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#186 of 365) to South Carolina’s −0.6 (#203).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Elon2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chandler Cuthrell | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.2 | 19.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 51.9% | 25.5% | 3.3 | 72.9% | 40.7% | |
| 11 | Randall Pettus II | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-31 | 27.3 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 48.7% | 35.4% | 5.9 | 76.2% | 26.7% | |
| 0 | Bryson Cokley | G | So | 6'6" | 32-12 | 27.0 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 55.7% | 39.2% | 4.9 | 80.0% | 25.1% | |
| 12 | Isaac Harrell | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 25.8 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 56.3% | 35.7% | 3.5 | 72.1% | 15.4% | |
| 3 | Ja'Juan Carr | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-31 | 25.1 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 48.5% | 30.0% | 1.9 | 71.4% | 19.9% | |
| 6 | Kacper Klaczek | F | Sr | 6'8" | 24-22 | 28.0 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 61.0% | 44.9% | 2.9 | 64.2% | 23.1% | |
| 22 | Ned Hull | G | So | 6'3" | 32-0 | 17.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 53.2% | 35.8% | 3.0 | 86.7% | 15.7% | |
| 8 | DeMarco Johnson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 15.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 50.0% | 21.7% | 0.8 | 57.1% | 15.6% | |
| 5 | Caleb Middleton | C | So | 6'11" | 29-0 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 17.6% | |
| 33 | Bryson Spell | F | Sr | 6'9" | 23-1 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 83.3% | 17.4% | |
| 4 | Iker Garmendia | F | Fr | 6'9" | 15-0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 64.3% | 26.5% | |
| 13 | Savion Taylor | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 42.7% | |
| 25 | Alex Olander | F | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 14 | Alex Brabec | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Austin Williams | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Trey O'Neil | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
South Carolina2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Eli Ellis | G | Fr | 6'0" | 28-0 | 26.9 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 44.2% | 28.0% | 2.9 | 87.9% | 20.8% | |
| 10 | Myles Stute | G | Sr | 6'7" | 27-24 | 23.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 47.6% | 30.9% | 4.1 | 64.0% | 16.8% | |
| 31 | Elijah Strong | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-18 | 17.1 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 49.3% | 27.8% | 3.0 | 75.9% | 36.1% | |
| 13 | Grant Polk | G | Fr | 6'6" | 30-0 | 12.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 51.5% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 90.9% | 17.1% | |
| 6 | EJ Walker | F | Fr | 6'7" | 22-6 | 15.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 49.1% | 24.1% | 1.3 | 47.1% | 13.9% | |
| 24 | Nordin Kapic | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-4 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 52.1% | 34.0% | 2.1 | 69.2% | 21.7% | |
| 20 | Hayden Assemian | F | Fr | 6'6" | 24-4 | 9.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 69.4% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 13.7% | |
| 0 | Jordan Butler | F | Jr | 7'0" | 25-4 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 53.4% | 25.0% | 0.8 | 77.4% | 17.1% | |
| 14 | Eli Sparkman | G | Sr | 6'0" | 12-0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 0.6 | — | 9.7% | |
| 7 | Abu Yarmah | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Cam Scott | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Elon2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chandler Cuthrell | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.2 | 19.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 51.9% | 25.5% | 3.3 | 72.9% | 40.7% | |
| 11 | Randall Pettus II | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-31 | 27.3 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 48.7% | 35.4% | 5.9 | 76.2% | 26.7% | |
| 0 | Bryson Cokley | G | So | 6'6" | 32-12 | 27.0 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 55.7% | 39.2% | 4.9 | 80.0% | 25.1% | |
| 12 | Isaac Harrell | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 25.8 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 56.3% | 35.7% | 3.5 | 72.1% | 15.4% | |
| 3 | Ja'Juan Carr | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-31 | 25.1 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 48.5% | 30.0% | 1.9 | 71.4% | 19.9% | |
| 6 | Kacper Klaczek | F | Sr | 6'8" | 24-22 | 28.0 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 61.0% | 44.9% | 2.9 | 64.2% | 23.1% | |
| 22 | Ned Hull | G | So | 6'3" | 32-0 | 17.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 53.2% | 35.8% | 3.0 | 86.7% | 15.7% | |
| 8 | DeMarco Johnson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 15.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 50.0% | 21.7% | 0.8 | 57.1% | 15.6% | |
| 5 | Caleb Middleton | C | So | 6'11" | 29-0 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 17.6% | |
| 33 | Bryson Spell | F | Sr | 6'9" | 23-1 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 83.3% | 17.4% | |
| 4 | Iker Garmendia | F | Fr | 6'9" | 15-0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 64.3% | 26.5% | |
| 13 | Savion Taylor | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 42.7% | |
| 25 | Alex Olander | F | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 14 | Alex Brabec | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Austin Williams | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Trey O'Neil | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Elon
Against the spread
Season
11-19
Home
3-11
Road
8-7
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −7.7
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 0 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
9-5
Road
7-8
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −6.3
Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | William & Mary | N | L 62–72 | +5.5 | L−4.5 | 163.5 | U134 | 91.6 | 106.4 | 67.7 |
| Mar 3 | UNC Wilmington | H | L 57–76 | +5.0 | L−14.0 | 145.5 | U133 | 85.2 | 113.6 | 66.9 |
| Feb 28 | Monmouth | A | L 57–73 | +3.5 | L−12.5 | 153.0 | U130 | 90.3 | 115.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 26 | Towson | A | L 56–58 | +5.5 | W+3.5 | 144.0 | U114 | 90.9 | 94.1 | 61.6 |
| Feb 21 | NC A&T | H | L 82–102 | −8.0 | L−28.0 | 152.5 | O184 | 121.1 | 150.6 | 67.7 |
| Feb 14 | William & Mary | A | W 81–78 | +8.0 | W+11.0 | 165.5 | U159 | 113.8 | 109.6 | 71.2 |
| Feb 12 | UNC Wilmington | A | L 54–65 | +8.0 | L−3.0 | 149.5 | U119 | 89.7 | 108.0 | 60.2 |
| Feb 7 | Drexel | H | L 77–82 | −5.0 | L−10.0 | 138.0 | O159 | 113.9 | 121.3 | 67.6 |
| Feb 5 | Hampton | A | L 79–87 2OT | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 142.5 | O166 | 100.1 | 110.2 | 78.9 |
| Jan 31 | Stony Brook | H | L 68–72 | −5.5 | L−9.5 | 147.5 | U140 | 98.5 | 104.3 | 69.0 |
South Carolina
Against the spread
Season
14-17-1
Home
6-12-1
Road
7-3
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +0.1
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
15-16-1
Home
9-10
Road
3-6-1
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −2.5
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 10 as an underdogOver in 1 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Oklahoma | N | L 74–86 | +8.0 | L−4.0 | 149.0 | O160 | 116.1 | 134.9 | 63.8 |
| Mar 7 | Ole Miss | A | W 64–61 | +7.0 | W+10.0 | 147.0 | U125 | 96.5 | 92.0 | 66.3 |
| Mar 3 | #23Tennessee | H | L 59–78 | +11.0 | L−8.0 | 142.0 | U137 | 95.8 | 126.6 | 61.6 |
| Feb 28 | Georgia | A | L 68–87 | +12.5 | L−6.5 | 159.0 | U155 | 107.0 | 136.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 24 | Kentucky | H | L 63–72 | +7.5 | L−1.5 | 151.0 | U135 | 87.7 | 100.3 | 71.8 |
| Feb 21 | Mississippi St | H | W 97–89 | +1.0 | W+9.0 | 152.0 | O186 | 133.7 | 122.7 | 72.5 |
| Feb 17 | #12Florida | A | L 62–76 | +23.0 | W+9.0 | 155.0 | U138 | 92.5 | 113.4 | 67.0 |
| Feb 14 | Alabama | A | L 75–89 | +18.0 | W+4.0 | 169.5 | U164 | 99.1 | 117.6 | 75.7 |
| Feb 7 | Missouri | H | L 59–78 | +3.0 | L−16.0 | 147.0 | U137 | 90.0 | 119.0 | 65.5 |
| Feb 3 | Texas | A | L 75–84 | +13.5 | W+4.5 | 149.5 | O159 | 109.9 | 123.1 | 68.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeElonSouth Carolina
Efficiency
109.8
109.7
112.7
107.3
68.0
67.6
—
—
Shooting
52.2%
50.3%
52.8%
53.2%
34.3%
31.1%
71.4%
78.1%
33.5%
36.7%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
14.5%
16.4%
14.6%
32.2%
27.2%
33.5%
32.1%
9.4%
9.3%
11.2%
11.1%
Style
43.2%
44.4%
44.1%
39.4%
11.6%
8.7%
54.6%
52.9%
33.3%
35.7%
Roster
2.96
2.25
6'5.8"
6'5.7"
—
52.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputElon
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
South Carolina
Returning minutes: 52.6%Returning production: 42.7%
Lost
- Meechie Johnson 31.5 mpg, 17.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kobe Knox 29.9 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mike Sharavjamts 29.7 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christ Essandoko 4.9 mpg, 1.3 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green
Added
- Abu Yarmah no D1 minutes last season
- Cam Scott no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 53% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.