Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs Arkansas State Red Wolves basketball preview & prediction
Wed, Nov 18 · 8:00 PM ET · First National Bank Arena, Jonesboro, AR
Non-conferenceESPN+First National Bank Arena, Jonesboro, AR
AR-Pine Bluff
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #357
@
Arkansas St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #130
Wed, Nov 18 · 8:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 79.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Arkansas St is the faster team (80.4, #14 of 365) and AR-Pine Bluff the slower (80.0, #16). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
79.4
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
74.5#23
AR-Pine Bluff
75.4#8
Arkansas St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Arkansas St has the ball+9.1
AR-Pine Bluff has the ball−18.0
Arkansas St has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 34.0% #127 · UAPB allows 48.7% #353+4.9
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 18.0% #181 · UAPB forces 12.5% #322 · ~11 turnovers+3.7
✓Shoots it welleFG% 47.9% #223 · UAPB allows 55.5% #268+1.5
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 26.7% #292 · UAPB allows 61.8% #342 · FT 43.6% #358−0.9
AR-Pine Bluff has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 36.3% #359 · ARST forces 18.6% #145 · ~23 turnovers−10.3
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 42.4% #300 · ARST allows 44.6% #74−8.4
✓Wins second chancesOR% 28.6% #233 · ARST allows 41.2% #323+1.3
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 36.2% #188 · ARST allows 34.2% #154 · FT 65.8% #246−0.5
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootAR-Pine Bluffoffense vsArkansas Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
AR-Pine Bluff shoots
22.2
28.6
9.5
39.7
Arkansas St allows
28.1
6.5
13.7
51.8
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 71.4%#38 | 51.3%#92 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 22.2%#266 | 44.4%#222 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 16.7%#298 | 47.4%#281 | 34.7% |
| Three | 26.8%#258 | 27.3%#82 | 32.5% |
Arkansas Stoffense vsAR-Pine Bluffdefense
Share of shots by zone
Arkansas St shoots
41.7
4.5
3.0
50.8
AR-Pine Bluff allows
32.6
14.0
15.1
38.4
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 45.5%#315 | 89.3%#358 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 16.7%#299 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 75.0%#12 | 23.1%#76 | 34.7% |
| Three | 34.2%#143 | 23.4%#35 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineAR-Pine Bluff
−29.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#359 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#233
Def reb %
51.3%
#353
Turnover %
36.3%
#359
Forced TO %
12.5%
#322
FT rate
36.2%
#188
FT allowed
61.8%
#342
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding−5.7
Ball security−12.8
Forcing turnovers−3.9
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed−6.2
Arkansas St
−3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#235 of 365
Off reb %
34.0%
#127
Def reb %
58.8%
#323
Turnover %
18.0%
#181
Forced TO %
18.6%
#145
FT rate
26.7%
#292
FT allowed
34.2%
#154
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding−3.2
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn−2.8
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Arkansas St has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.6 (#235 of 365) to AR-Pine Bluff’s −29.9 (#359).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notAR-Pine Bluff2026-27 numbers · last game: Baylor, Nov 6
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-2 | 34.0 | 37 | — | Started last | 13.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 2.5 | 66.7% | 26.4% | |
| 22 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-1 | 26.0 | 29 | — | Bench | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 54.2% | 100.0% | 0.5 | 66.7% | 20.3% | |
| 5 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 2-1 | 23.5 | 17 | — | Bench | 7.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46.9% | 30.0% | 5.0 | — | 20.1% | |
| 23 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 2-1 | 22.5 | 22 | — | Started last | 5.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 41.7% | 28.6% | 3.5 | 50.0% | 22.2% | |
| 10 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 18.0 | 8 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 66.7% | 20.8% | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'7" | 2-1 | 17.5 | 16 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 15.0% | 20.0% | 2.5 | 50.0% | 24.1% | |
| 9 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 1-1 | 29.0 | 36 | — | Started last | 13.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 38.5% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 33.9% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'7" | 2-1 | 12.0 | 9 | — | Started last | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 12.4% | |
| 4 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 2-1 | 12.0 | 11 | — | Started last | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 70.0% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 60.0% | 25.8% | |
| 7 | G | Sr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 10 | — | Bench | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 55.6% | 28.6% | 3.5 | 50.0% | 28.5% | |
| 8 | G | Jr | 6'7" | 2-1 | 6.0 | 7 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 6 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 2.5 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 11 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 4.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesAR-Pine Bluff
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-0
Road
0-2
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −10.8
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −0.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Baylor | A | L 53–109 | +37.5 | L−18.5 | 163.5 | U162 | 64.6 | 132.9 | 82.0 |
| Nov 3 | #12Arkansas | A | L 61–106 | +42.0 | L−3.0 | 166.5 | O167 | 78.2 | 135.9 | 78.0 |
| Mar 12 | Southern | N | L 81–84 | +5.0 | W+2.0 | 150.5 | O165 | 123.9 | 128.4 | 65.4 |
| Mar 5 | Alcorn St | A | W 83–48 | −1.0 | W+34.0 | 144.0 | U131 | 111.6 | 64.5 | 74.4 |
| Mar 3 | Jackson St | A | L 78–81 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 153.0 | O159 | 112.5 | 116.8 | 69.3 |
| Feb 28 | Miss Valley St | H | L 69–70 | −14.0 | L−15.0 | 147.5 | U139 | 99.0 | 100.4 | 69.7 |
| Feb 21 | Prairie View | H | W 84–82 | −3.5 | L−1.5 | 158.0 | O166 | 123.7 | 120.8 | 67.9 |
| Feb 19 | Texas Southern | H | L 64–83 | −1.0 | L−20.0 | 152.5 | U147 | 93.7 | 121.5 | 68.3 |
| Feb 16 | Alabama A&M | A | L 70–82 | +3.5 | L−8.5 | 144.0 | O152 | 110.4 | 129.3 | 63.4 |
| Feb 14 | Alabama St | A | L 61–79 | +3.5 | L−14.5 | 150.0 | U140 | 84.2 | 109.1 | 72.4 |
Arkansas St
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +4.2
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −8.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | #20Alabama | A | L 86–101 | +26.0 | W+11.0 | 178.0 | O187 | 100.6 | 118.1 | 85.5 |
| Nov 2 | Toledo | H | W 71–70 | −3.5 | L−2.5 | 166.0 | U141 | 94.2 | 92.9 | 75.4 |
| Mar 5 | GA Southern | N | L 77–80 | −7.5 | L−10.5 | 166.0 | U157 | 112.0 | 116.4 | 68.7 |
| Feb 27 | Louisiana | H | W 81–58 | −14.0 | W+9.0 | 146.5 | U139 | 107.1 | 76.7 | 75.7 |
| Feb 24 | Southern Miss | H | W 89–84 | −9.0 | L−4.0 | 158.0 | O173 | 112.8 | 106.4 | 78.9 |
| Feb 21 | UL Monroe | A | W 102–94 | −15.5 | L−7.5 | 164.0 | O196 | 131.2 | 120.9 | 77.8 |
| Feb 19 | Louisiana | A | W 79–62 | −9.0 | W+8.0 | 145.0 | U141 | 114.9 | 90.2 | 68.8 |
| Feb 14 | South Alabama | H | L 88–92 OT | −7.5 | L−11.5 | 150.0 | O180 | 115.3 | 120.6 | 76.3 |
| Feb 11 | UL Monroe | H | W 103–70 | −21.0 | W+12.0 | 163.0 | O173 | 139.2 | 94.6 | 74.0 |
| Feb 7 | Bowling Green | H | W 91–54 | −3.5 | W+33.5 | 155.0 | U145 | 121.0 | 71.8 | 75.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeAR-Pine BluffArkansas St
Efficiency
96.2
105.8
114.0
103.4
74.5
75.4
14.2
11.4
Shooting
42.4%
47.9%
43.8%
44.3%
26.8%
34.2%
65.8%
43.6%
36.2%
26.7%
Ball control & glass
36.3%
18.0%
12.5%
18.6%
28.6%
34.0%
48.7%
41.2%
23.1%
9.3%
21.9%
11.4%
Style
39.0%
52.1%
43.9%
36.9%
9.6%
22.9%
43.6%
59.6%
47.3%
37.1%
Roster
2.82
2.53
6'5.9"
6'4.9"
2.7%
5.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputAR-Pine Bluff
Returning minutes: 2.7%Returning production: 1.8%
Lost
- Quion Williams 36.1 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trevon Payton 33.8 mpg, 10.0 ppg · transferred to Bradley
- Alex Mirhosseini 30.9 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Milhan Charles 28.3 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to FAU
- Jaquan Scott 27.6 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ramel Lloyd Jr. 13.2 mpg, 4.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Elijah Hernandez new to D1 · 37.0 mpg, 16.0 ppg last season
- Jalen Tatum from Jackson St · 8.8 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
- David Giddens from Cleveland St · 6.8 mpg, 2.5 ppg last season
- Macaleab Rich from UTSA · 5.5 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
- CJ Smith from UTEP · 2.6 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
- Cedric Dixon no D1 minutes last season
Returns 3% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Arkansas St
Returning minutes: 5.5%Returning production: 4.6%
Lost
- Christian Harmon 27.5 mpg, 12.8 ppg · transferred to Virginia
- Chandler Jackson 26.9 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jalen Hampton 24.6 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaxon Ellingsworth 22.7 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Matt Hayman 22.0 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- T.J. Caldwell 20.2 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to UAB
Added
- Layne Taylor from Murray St · 23.2 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season
- Jordan Pyke from Incarnate Word · 22.1 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Amadou Doumbia from NC A&T · 12.6 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
- Tameron Ferguson no D1 minutes last season
- Grayson Bennett no D1 minutes last season
- Rho Omed no D1 minutes last season
Returns 5% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 18
- Jackson St at Baylor · 12:00 PM ET
- Navy at Georgetown · 6:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Penn State · 6:30 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at E Michigan · 6:30 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Winthrop · 6:30 PM ET
- Samford at SC Upstate · 6:30 PM ET
- Tennessee Tech at UNC Asheville · 6:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Lafayette · 7:00 PM ET
- Brown at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at UIC · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at FDU · 7:00 PM ET
- UNC Wilmington at Long Island · 7:00 PM ET
- NC Central at George Mason · 7:00 PM ET
- Siena at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Yale · 7:00 PM ET
- Morehead St at Ohio · 7:00 PM ET
- Elon at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Morgan St at NC A&T · 7:00 PM ET
- VMI at Longwood · 7:00 PM ET
- Furman at Radford · 7:00 PM ET
- FGCU at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Merrimack · 7:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at La Salle · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard vs Duquesne · 7:00 PM ET
- James Madison at Towson · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at Presbyterian · 7:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Marquette · 7:30 PM ET
- Youngstown St at Cincinnati · 7:30 PM ET
- LSU N Orleans at Texas Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Campbell at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- Boston College at Harvard · 8:00 PM ET
- Wichita St at Loyola Chicago · 8:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at LSU · 8:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Stonehill · 8:00 PM ET
- Cornell at Syracuse · 8:00 PM ET
- Purdue FW at Bradley · 8:00 PM ET
- Incarnate Word at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Florida A&M at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at Gardner-Webb · 8:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Nebraska · 8:30 PM ET
- Bethune at Creighton · 9:00 PM ET
- UConn at Arizona · 9:00 PM ET
- Portland at Colorado · 9:00 PM ET
- Fresno St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- N Colorado at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
- Weber St at Utah State · 9:00 PM ET
- N Dakota St at Colorado St · 9:00 PM ET
- UC Riverside at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Idaho at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Washington St vs Hawai'i · 10:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at San Diego St · 10:00 PM ET
- Fullerton at UCLA · 10:30 PM ET
- Louisiana at San Francisco · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.