CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK
Campbell
Efficiency #208
2025-26: 16-18 · 10-11 conf
@
Oklahoma
Efficiency #47
2025-26: 21-16 · 9-12 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
73.3
win 15%
Projected
85.2
win 85%
No line posted yet.
Model: OU −11.9 · total 158.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Oklahoma 67.7, Campbell 69.9 → 69.3 possessions
+2.2
Oklahoma offense vs Campbell defense
+8.0
Campbell offense vs Oklahoma defense
+0.1
Projected total
158.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Oklahoma offense vs Campbell defense
+8.0
Campbell offense vs Oklahoma defense
−0.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Oklahoma by 11.9
11.9
Campbell side ◂▸ Oklahoma side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Oklahoma.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Campbell is the faster team (70.0, #93 of 365) and Oklahoma the slower (68.5, #174). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
158.5
model
Projected team totals
73.3 / 85.2
Campbell / Oklahoma
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.9#53
Campbell
67.7#232
Oklahoma

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageOklahoma
Where Oklahoma scores: shooting
Oklahoma shoots an effective 54.9% (#40); Campbell allows 53.9% (#295). Expect about 54.7%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.9 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageCampbell
Where Campbell scores: the offensive glass
Campbell rebounds 33.5% of its own misses (#77); Oklahoma lets opponents grab 32.9% of their own misses (#296). Expect about 33.7%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Oklahoma) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Campbell at about 38.0% of its shots from three, Oklahoma about 36.6%.
TurnoversOklahoma
Oklahoma protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for Oklahoma's offense.
ClashOklahoma
Style clash: 3-point volume
Oklahoma takes 43.6% of its shots from three; Campbell runs teams off the line (29.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 36.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashOklahoma
Style clash: paint scoring
Oklahoma gets only 37.1% of its points in the paint; Campbell gives up 50.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 44.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
Campbell has the ball
OffenseOklahoma allowsvs D1 avg
50.1% #230
51.0% #162
-1.1 pt/100
17.6% #241
15.5% #254
+0.5 pt/100
33.5% #77
32.9% #296
+2.0 pt/100
43.5% #16
34.9% #176
+0.5 pt/100
72.5% #190
—
+0.0 pt/100
Campbell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.9 pts/100
Oklahoma has the ball
OffenseCampbell allowsvs D1 avg
54.9% #40
53.9% #295
+4.9 pt/100
14.4% #37
17.0% #157
+1.5 pt/100
32.8% #92
32.0% #254
+1.5 pt/100
35.5% #161
37.0% #238
+0.2 pt/100
75.4% #68
—
+0.3 pt/100
Oklahoma net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Campbelloffense vsOklahomadefense
Share of shots by zone
Campbell shoots
Oklahoma allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.3%#21860.1%#23558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.1%#32940.3%#19639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.0%#29235.0%#7738.0%
Three32.3%#26734.1%#18933.7%
Oklahomaoffense vsCampbelldefense
Share of shots by zone
Oklahoma shoots
Campbell allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.5%#14363.2%#32758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.8%#2533.7%#4039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.5%#4635.5%#8938.0%
Three36.5%#4135.5%#27733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Campbell
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#105 of 365
Off reb %
33.5%
#77
Def reb %
68.0%
#254
Turnover %
17.6%
#241
Forced TO %
17.0%
#157
FT rate
43.5%
#16
FT allowed
37.0%
#238
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+2.2
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Oklahoma
+1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#134 of 365
Off reb %
32.8%
#92
Def reb %
67.1%
#296
Turnover %
14.4%
#37
Forced TO %
15.5%
#254
FT rate
35.5%
#161
FT allowed
34.9%
#176
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.1

Campbell has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#105 of 365) to Oklahoma’s +1.1 (#134).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Campbell2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Campbell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
9DJ SmithGSr5'11"34-3334.419.03.52.11.949.1%33.9%8.583.6%31.0%
7Cam GregoryGSr6'5"34-3433.48.03.12.31.252.9%33.1%3.776.5%14.3%
2Jeremiah JohnsonGSo6'4"34-3132.415.23.51.92.151.9%37.4%3.986.5%26.3%
13Dovydas ButkaFSo6'9"31-3133.913.98.52.62.451.0%16.7%1.055.3%26.2%
1Tasos CookGSr6'2"33-824.77.22.01.20.850.3%35.8%3.379.2%17.0%
11Muneer NewtonFSr6'5"34-2719.56.74.90.81.170.7%0.0%0.048.4%17.6%
0Chris Fields Jr.FJr6'7"27-518.69.76.91.62.046.6%7.7%0.564.6%34.2%
22Dominykas ButkaGFr6'6"22-07.21.91.40.40.550.0%22.2%0.462.5%17.5%
5Enoch KalambayGSr6'6"10-08.82.02.40.50.837.0%12.5%1.6—22.4%
4Broc BidwellGSr6'0"11-05.52.20.40.40.461.1%42.9%1.350.0%20.3%
15Terren FrankFSr6'8"6-18.31.70.80.50.533.3%0.0%0.266.7%18.2%
32Daniel MarcellinusFFr6'11"2-03.00.01.00.00.5——0.0—9.8%
12Israel YawFSr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Klairus AmirGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
CampbellOklahoma
Efficiency
109.3
117.5
110.9
107.7
69.9
67.7
—
—
Shooting
50.1%
54.9%
51.2%
55.1%
32.3%
36.5%
72.5%
75.4%
43.5%
35.5%
Ball control & glass
17.6%
14.4%
17.0%
15.5%
33.5%
32.8%
32.0%
32.9%
9.7%
8.2%
10.5%
10.2%
Style
36.9%
43.6%
46.3%
37.1%
16.1%
10.1%
44.9%
50.9%
22.5%
29.7%
Roster
3.22
3.67
6'4.2"
6'5.9"
—
38.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Campbell
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Campbell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Oklahoma
Returning minutes: 38.4%Returning production: 36.7%
Lost
  • Nijel Pack 30.5 mpg, 16.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Tae Davis 29.7 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mohamed Wague 22.4 mpg, 6.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jadon Jones 18.0 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kirill Elatontsev 8.6 mpg, 2.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kuol Atak 8.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Duke Brennan from Villanova · 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
  • B.J. Edwards from SMU · 27.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg last season
  • Tyler Hendricks from Utah Valley · 24.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
  • Pop Isaacs from Texas A&M · 21.7 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
  • Khani Rooths from Louisville · 14.1 mpg, 4.7 ppg last season
  • Yaak Yaak from Oregon St · 11.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg last season

Returns 38% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.