CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceBryce Jordan Center, University Park, PA

IU Indy

Efficiency #315

2025-26: 7-25 · 3-18 conf

Penn State

Efficiency #194

2025-26: 12-20 · 3-18 conf

Wed, Nov 18 · TBD

77.5

win 20%

Projected

87.1

win 80%

No line posted yet.

Model: PSU −9.7 · total 164.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Penn State 68.4, IU Indy 72.5 → 72.6 possessions

+9.2

Penn State offense vs IU Indy defense

+6.3

IU Indy offense vs Penn State defense

+0.8

Projected total

164.6

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Penn State offense vs IU Indy defense

+6.3

IU Indy offense vs Penn State defense

−0.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.2

Penn State by 9.7

9.7

IU Indy side ◂▸ Penn State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 164.5 against a projected 164.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Penn State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, IU Indy is the faster team (74.9, #4 of 365) and Penn State the slower (67.5, #224). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

72.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

164.6

model

Projected team totals

77.5 / 87.1

IU Indy / Penn State

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

72.5#2

IU Indy

68.4#175

Penn State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantagePenn State

Where Penn State scores: shooting

Penn State shoots an effective 53.0% (#102); IU Indy allows 58.2% (#362). Expect about 55.8%, 4.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.5 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageIU Indy

Where IU Indy scores: shooting

IU Indy shoots an effective 52.2% (#136); Penn State allows 58.4% (#363). Expect about 55.5%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.0 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Penn State averages 67.5 possessions per 40, IU Indy 74.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashIU Indy

Style match: ball movement

IU Indy assists on 61.9% of its made baskets; Penn State allows assists on 60.4% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 63.8% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Penn State's defense, IU Indy's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect IU Indy at about 44.1% of its shots from three, Penn State about 35.9%.

IU Indy has the ball

OffensePenn State allowsvs D1 avg

52.2% #136

58.4% #363

+6.0 pt/100

15.9% #127

17.7% #113

-0.1 pt/100

28.7% #243

31.1% #210

-0.5 pt/100

21.7% #365

27.5% #28

-1.4 pt/100

72.1% #204

—

-0.0 pt/100

IU Indy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.0 pts/100

Penn State has the ball

OffenseIU Indy allowsvs D1 avg

53.0% #102

58.2% #362

+6.5 pt/100

15.6% #108

19.2% #41

-1.1 pt/100

25.9% #325

35.6% #348

-0.4 pt/100

33.8% #219

46.6% #356

+0.8 pt/100

75.0% #83

—

+0.2 pt/100

Penn State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

IU Indyoffense vsPenn Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

IU Indy shoots

34.6

8.1

15.3

42.0

Penn State allows

39.1

5.8

12.5

42.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.5%#62	67.3%#362	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	50.3%#11	35.2%#63	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.0%#223	43.7%#338	38.0%
Three	32.4%#258	38.8%#363	33.7%

Penn Stateoffense vsIU Indydefense

Share of shots by zone

Penn State shoots

38.7

5.6

17.9

37.7

IU Indy allows

48.7

4.0

11.4

35.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.1%#69	64.3%#343	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.5%#111	41.8%#228	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.8%#42	38.4%#173	38.0%
Three	32.4%#263	38.5%#361	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

IU Indy

−6.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#358 of 365

Off reb %

28.7%

#243

Def reb %

64.4%

#348

Turnover %

15.9%

#127

Forced TO %

19.2%

#41

FT rate

21.7%

#365

FT allowed

46.6%

#356

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers+1.7

Foul shots drawn−3.4

Foul shots allowed−2.9

Penn State

+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#118 of 365

Off reb %

25.9%

#325

Def reb %

68.9%

#210

Turnover %

15.6%

#108

Forced TO %

17.7%

#113

FT rate

33.8%

#219

FT allowed

27.5%

#28

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Penn State has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#118 of 365) to IU Indy’s −6.2 (#358).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

IU Indy2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Finley Woodward	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	30.8	8.8	5.3	6.3	2.2	51.5%	0.0%	0.0	68.6%	18.0%
12	Kyler D'Augustino	G	Jr	6'1"	30-30	32.3	18.5	3.2	3.4	1.9	58.0%	39.4%	3.5	79.3%	27.9%
13	Maguire Mitchell	G	Fr	6'5"	32-31	26.3	11.8	2.3	1.2	0.9	54.5%	34.9%	7.4	78.4%	22.9%
4	Micah Davis	G	So	6'2"	32-6	25.4	9.4	2.1	2.9	1.8	49.6%	31.3%	5.2	70.0%	22.9%
0	Jaxon Edwards	G	Sr	6'5"	30-14	23.0	11.6	5.6	1.9	1.8	55.1%	21.3%	1.6	73.6%	27.3%
20	Kameron Tinsley	F	So	6'6"	29-5	17.5	7.9	2.4	1.1	0.9	52.0%	34.6%	4.7	83.9%	23.1%
23	Aiden Miller	F	So	6'8"	29-9	14.7	5.0	3.8	1.0	0.8	49.2%	31.6%	3.4	64.5%	20.5%
15	Matt Compas	G	Sr	6'4"	31-5	13.5	7.1	1.2	1.4	0.9	51.9%	20.6%	1.1	68.4%	28.5%
1	Reece Hagy	F	Fr	6'8"	31-23	11.0	2.4	2.1	0.7	0.3	46.9%	21.2%	1.1	56.5%	12.8%
5	JP Dragas	G	So	6'1"	15-0	16.3	6.1	1.6	1.6	1.0	51.9%	34.8%	4.4	71.4%	20.2%
24	Gabe Stewart	F	Fr	6'9"	12-5	5.6	1.1	2.1	0.2	0.3	28.1%	25.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.1%
10	Lav Cvetkovic	F	Sr	6'7"	12-0	3.9	1.4	0.8	0.2	0.1	57.7%	37.5%	0.7	40.0%	17.6%
22	Ajay Holubar	G	Sr	6'3"	9-0	4.1	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.7	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	—	18.9%
2	Corey Boston	G	Sr	5'10"	6-0	3.5	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.7	44.4%	33.3%	1.0	75.0%	32.6%
11	Garrett Sever	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	3.7	1.0	0.3	0.7	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	1.0	—	11.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Penn State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Josh Reed	F	Sr	6'8"	32-31	28.2	11.5	4.1	1.0	1.1	55.3%	36.8%	2.7	87.2%	22.0%
4	Kayden Mingo	G	Fr	6'3"	28-28	32.1	13.7	3.5	4.3	2.0	51.2%	24.4%	3.1	70.5%	26.9%
3	Ivan Juric	F	Fr	7'0"	30-26	26.4	10.2	5.3	0.8	1.9	61.6%	28.3%	1.8	66.1%	22.5%
7	Dominick Stewart	G	So	6'5"	32-24	22.5	6.6	2.2	1.6	0.8	51.5%	34.8%	3.5	79.1%	18.1%
9	Melih Tunca	G	Fr	6'5"	31-12	22.8	7.8	2.0	2.4	1.4	50.3%	31.3%	2.1	77.0%	22.1%
11	Eli Rice	G	So	6'8"	29-18	19.8	6.7	1.7	0.2	0.6	51.6%	39.0%	3.6	77.3%	20.3%
1	Mason Blackwood	F	Fr	6'7"	26-1	12.3	2.6	1.8	0.2	0.3	54.5%	22.2%	1.0	77.8%	12.5%
22	Sasa Ciani	F	Jr	6'10"	28-4	10.0	2.1	1.9	0.2	0.4	39.8%	20.0%	0.2	68.2%	16.0%
16	Tibor Mirtic	F	Fr	6'9"	15-1	14.2	3.7	3.3	0.7	0.7	54.3%	33.3%	0.2	30.8%	17.6%
21	Justin Houser	F	Fr	7'0"	18-0	6.2	1.4	1.1	0.2	0.3	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	62.5%	16.2%
30	Chris Lotito	F	Fr	6'7"	4-0	1.5	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	—	9.7%
12	Reggie Grodin	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

IU Indy2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Finley Woodward	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	30.8	8.8	5.3	6.3	2.2	51.5%	0.0%	0.0	68.6%	18.0%
12	Kyler D'Augustino	G	Jr	6'1"	30-30	32.3	18.5	3.2	3.4	1.9	58.0%	39.4%	3.5	79.3%	27.9%
13	Maguire Mitchell	G	Fr	6'5"	32-31	26.3	11.8	2.3	1.2	0.9	54.5%	34.9%	7.4	78.4%	22.9%
4	Micah Davis	G	So	6'2"	32-6	25.4	9.4	2.1	2.9	1.8	49.6%	31.3%	5.2	70.0%	22.9%
0	Jaxon Edwards	G	Sr	6'5"	30-14	23.0	11.6	5.6	1.9	1.8	55.1%	21.3%	1.6	73.6%	27.3%
20	Kameron Tinsley	F	So	6'6"	29-5	17.5	7.9	2.4	1.1	0.9	52.0%	34.6%	4.7	83.9%	23.1%
23	Aiden Miller	F	So	6'8"	29-9	14.7	5.0	3.8	1.0	0.8	49.2%	31.6%	3.4	64.5%	20.5%
15	Matt Compas	G	Sr	6'4"	31-5	13.5	7.1	1.2	1.4	0.9	51.9%	20.6%	1.1	68.4%	28.5%
1	Reece Hagy	F	Fr	6'8"	31-23	11.0	2.4	2.1	0.7	0.3	46.9%	21.2%	1.1	56.5%	12.8%
5	JP Dragas	G	So	6'1"	15-0	16.3	6.1	1.6	1.6	1.0	51.9%	34.8%	4.4	71.4%	20.2%
24	Gabe Stewart	F	Fr	6'9"	12-5	5.6	1.1	2.1	0.2	0.3	28.1%	25.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.1%
10	Lav Cvetkovic	F	Sr	6'7"	12-0	3.9	1.4	0.8	0.2	0.1	57.7%	37.5%	0.7	40.0%	17.6%
22	Ajay Holubar	G	Sr	6'3"	9-0	4.1	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.7	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	—	18.9%
2	Corey Boston	G	Sr	5'10"	6-0	3.5	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.7	44.4%	33.3%	1.0	75.0%	32.6%
11	Garrett Sever	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	3.7	1.0	0.3	0.7	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	1.0	—	11.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

IU Indy

Against the spread

Season

12-17-1

Home

5-7

Road

7-9-1

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −1.6

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

13-16-1

Home

4-8

Road

9-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.4

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 2	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	A	L 93–101	+1.0	L−7.0	169.5	O194	112.1	121.7	83.0
Feb 28	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	L 81–87	+1.0	L−5.0	160.5	O168	116.4	125.0	69.6
Feb 25	OaklandAdjEM #172	H	L 74–86	+5.5	L−6.5	167.5	U160	101.9	118.5	72.6
Feb 19	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	L 73–85	+12.0	P0.0	160.5	U158	102.5	119.3	71.2
Feb 15	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	L 78–83	+6.5	W+1.5	158.5	O161	104.1	110.7	75.0
Feb 12	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	L 81–84	+6.0	W+3.0	164.5	O165	114.6	118.8	70.7
Feb 10	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	H	L 88–92	+2.0	L−2.0	158.0	O180	113.6	118.7	77.5
Feb 7	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 82–74	−2.5	W+5.5	168.5	U156	109.3	98.7	75.0
Jan 30	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	L 76–85	+10.5	W+1.5	154.0	O161	103.7	116.0	73.3
Jan 28	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 58–74	+8.5	L−7.5	159.5	U132	97.3	124.2	59.6

Penn State

Against the spread

Season

12-20

Home

7-10

Road

4-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −5.2

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-14

Home

9-8

Road

8-3

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −1.6

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	NorthwesternAdjEM #78	N	L 66–76	+5.0	L−5.0	144.5	U142	103.9	119.6	63.6
Mar 8	RutgersAdjEM #192	A	L 62–74	+5.0	L−7.0	150.5	U136	89.5	106.8	69.3
Mar 4	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	H	L 62–94	+7.0	L−25.0	152.0	O156	95.7	145.1	64.8
Feb 28	IowaAdjEM #22	H	W 71–69	+9.0	W+11.0	144.0	U140	119.5	116.1	59.4
Feb 21	#9NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 64–87	+17.5	L−5.5	147.5	O151	92.2	125.4	69.4
Feb 18	RutgersAdjEM #192	H	L 72–85	−4.5	L−17.5	149.0	O157	105.6	124.7	68.2
Feb 14	OregonAdjEM #143	A	L 72–83	+6.5	L−4.5	147.0	O155	109.7	126.5	65.6
Feb 11	WashingtonAdjEM #59	A	W 63–60	+12.5	W+15.5	153.0	U123	96.3	91.7	65.4
Feb 8	USCAdjEM #97	H	L 75–77	+3.0	W+1.0	157.0	U152	103.7	106.4	72.3
Feb 5	#2MichiganAdjEM #1	A	L 69–110	+26.5	L−14.5	162.0	O179	96.9	154.5	71.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

IU IndyPenn State

Efficiency

106.3

110.8

114.9

111.8

72.5

68.4

—

Shooting

52.2%

53.0%

54.8%

55.8%

32.4%

72.1%

75.0%

21.7%

33.8%

Ball control & glass

15.9%

15.6%

19.2%

17.7%

28.7%

25.9%

35.6%

31.1%

10.1%

8.6%

7.9%

9.8%

Style

42.1%

38.1%

48.0%

46.1%

15.6%

14.8%

61.9%

48.3%

38.0%

33.2%

Roster

2.64

1.82

6'4.6"

6'7.1"

—

86.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

IU Indy

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Penn State

Returning minutes: 86.3%Returning production: 82.2%

Lost

Freddie Dilione V 27.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg · transferred to Georgia

Added

Reggie Grodin no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.