CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceKirby Sports Center, Easton, PA
Binghamton
Efficiency #354
2025-26: 8-23 · 4-12 conf
@
Lafayette
Efficiency #319
2025-26: 11-21 · 8-11 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
68.6
win 26%
Projected
76.1
win 74%
No line posted yet.
Model: LAF −7.5 · total 144.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Lafayette 68.0, Binghamton 67.1 → 66.7 possessions
−3.5
Lafayette offense vs Binghamton defense
+1.8
Binghamton offense vs Lafayette defense
−1.9
Projected total
144.6
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Lafayette offense vs Binghamton defense
+1.8
Binghamton offense vs Lafayette defense
+1.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Lafayette by 7.5
7.5
Binghamton side ◂▸ Lafayette side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Lafayette.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Lafayette is the faster team (66.9, #248 of 365) and Binghamton the slower (65.1, #331). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
144.6
model
Projected team totals
68.6 / 76.1
Binghamton / Lafayette
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.1#281
Binghamton
68.0#214
Lafayette

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageBinghamton
Where Binghamton struggles: the offensive glass
Binghamton rebounds 20.9% of its own misses (#361); Lafayette lets opponents grab 28.6% of their own misses (#88). Expect about 22.9%, 7.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageLafayette
Where Lafayette scores: ball control
Lafayette turns it over on 15.3% of possessions (#90); Binghamton forces turnovers on 13.3% of opponent possessions (#349). Expect about 13.7%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Lafayette averages 66.9 possessions per 40, Binghamton 65.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassLafayette
Lafayette gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.7% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against Lafayette's offense.
Binghamton has the ball
OffenseLafayette allowsvs D1 avg
50.0% #234
53.6% #286
+0.6 pt/100
18.8% #312
15.1% #276
-0.1 pt/100
20.9% #361
28.6% #88
-4.6 pt/100
41.5% #37
30.6% #76
+0.1 pt/100
75.3% #75
—
+0.3 pt/100
Binghamton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.8 pts/100
Lafayette has the ball
OffenseBinghamton allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #278
54.3% #309
+0.6 pt/100
15.3% #90
13.3% #349
+3.8 pt/100
25.8% #326
29.4% #128
-2.3 pt/100
32.4% #249
34.6% #167
-0.2 pt/100
68.9% #303
—
-0.3 pt/100
Lafayette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Binghamtonoffense vsLafayettedefense
Share of shots by zone
Binghamton shoots
Lafayette allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.9%#27562.6%#31458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.7%#22841.5%#22439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)41.0%#7837.7%#15238.0%
Three32.5%#25436.0%#29833.7%
Lafayetteoffense vsBinghamtondefense
Share of shots by zone
Lafayette shoots
Binghamton allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23158.7%#17458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15245.5%#31439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.9%#33142.0%#30038.0%
Three32.2%#27335.8%#29433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Binghamton
−4.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#340 of 365
Off reb %
20.9%
#361
Def reb %
70.6%
#128
Turnover %
18.8%
#312
Forced TO %
13.3%
#349
FT rate
41.5%
#37
FT allowed
34.6%
#167
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers−2.3
Foul shots drawn+1.7
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Lafayette
−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#194 of 365
Off reb %
25.8%
#326
Def reb %
71.4%
#88
Turnover %
15.3%
#90
Forced TO %
15.1%
#276
FT rate
32.4%
#249
FT allowed
30.6%
#76
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.5
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+1.2

Lafayette has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.4 (#194 of 365) to Binghamton’s −4.6 (#340).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Binghamton2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Jeremiah QuigleyGJr5'11"30-3037.114.54.96.43.347.7%17.4%1.578.4%27.5%
5Wes Peterson Jr.GSr6'6"28-2635.710.74.41.41.847.3%39.8%3.077.5%21.0%
24Jackson BenigniGSr6'1"30-2131.510.12.80.80.962.0%40.1%5.189.2%16.4%
10Zyier BeverlyFJr6'9"29-1825.011.84.90.41.761.0%30.0%0.364.4%27.7%
4Ryan RichardsonGJr6'5"22-1225.24.22.11.61.439.8%31.0%3.235.3%16.2%
13Stephan SnaggFSo6'8"27-1419.94.02.90.40.461.6%—0.056.3%11.3%
14Demetrius LilleyCSr6'9"11-1133.514.69.40.92.744.3%14.3%2.580.8%29.5%
30Jake BlackburnGFr6'5"14-116.45.51.30.40.662.9%39.5%3.166.7%18.1%
2Jayden KelseyGFr6'7"2-017.50.51.52.50.00.0%0.0%2.550.0%9.9%
12Nevin IbrociGFr6'2"10-03.20.90.30.00.045.0%30.0%1.00.0%20.7%
3Evan AsheGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Jayden LemondGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
33Sayerr SenghoreFSr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
BinghamtonLafayette
Efficiency
101.6
103.4
116.3
112.5
67.1
68.0
—
—
Shooting
50.0%
49.3%
50.6%
50.0%
32.5%
32.2%
75.3%
68.9%
41.5%
32.4%
Ball control & glass
18.8%
15.3%
13.3%
15.1%
20.9%
25.8%
29.4%
28.6%
10.9%
7.9%
8.8%
10.5%
Style
30.9%
39.8%
47.2%
46.1%
9.5%
9.7%
48.7%
55.4%
21.1%
24.7%
Roster
3.21
1.53
6'4.4"
6'4.4"
87.5%
83.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Binghamton
Returning minutes: 87.5%Returning production: 88.7%
Lost
  • Bryson Wilson 25.4 mpg, 8.9 ppg · transferred to Saint Peter's
Added
  • Evan Ashe no D1 minutes last season
  • Jayden Lemond no D1 minutes last season
  • Sayerr Senghore no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Lafayette
Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 82.8%
Lost
  • Mark Butler 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Rider
Added
  • Justin Vander Baan no D1 minutes last season
  • Beckett Currie no D1 minutes last season
  • TJ Berger no D1 minutes last season
  • Chris Rubayo no D1 minutes last season
  • Luka Savicevic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.