CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceFifth Third Arena, Cincinnati, OH
Youngstown St
Efficiency #204
2025-26: 15-17 · 8-13 conf
@
Cincinnati
Efficiency #52
2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
64.9
win 17%
Projected
76.1
win 83%
No line posted yet.
Model: CIN −11.2 · total 140.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Cincinnati 68.5, Youngstown St 68.3 → 68.5 possessions
+0.3
Cincinnati offense vs Youngstown St defense
−0.2
Youngstown St offense vs Cincinnati defense
−7.5
Projected total
140.9
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Cincinnati offense vs Youngstown St defense
−0.2
Youngstown St offense vs Cincinnati defense
+7.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Cincinnati by 11.2
11.2
Youngstown St side ◂▸ Cincinnati side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 140.8 against a projected 140.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Cincinnati.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cincinnati is the faster team (69.2, #136 of 365) and Youngstown St the slower (68.6, #169). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.9
model
Projected team totals
64.9 / 76.1
Youngstown St / Cincinnati
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.3#187
Youngstown St
68.5#163
Cincinnati

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageYoungstown St
Where Youngstown St struggles: ball control
Youngstown St turns it over on 18.8% of possessions (#313); Cincinnati forces turnovers on 18.2% of opponent possessions (#89). Expect about 18.9%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Cincinnati's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Youngstown St at about 47.7% of its shots from three, Cincinnati about 39.5%.
ClashCincinnati
Style clash: ball movement
Cincinnati assists on 63.7% of its made baskets; Youngstown St breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.8% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 56.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
ClashYoungstown St
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Youngstown St (#35 in 2-point shooting) against Cincinnati (#42 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.6%. Historically Youngstown St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
ClashCincinnati
Style clash: paint scoring
Cincinnati gets only 36.8% of its points in the paint; Youngstown St gives up 46.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
ClashCincinnati
Style clash: 3-point volume
Cincinnati takes 43.8% of its shots from three; Youngstown St runs teams off the line (34.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 39.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Youngstown St has the ball
OffenseCincinnati allowsvs D1 avg
53.7% #76
47.3% #27
-0.9 pt/100
18.8% #313
18.2% #89
-2.6 pt/100
30.4% #182
27.3% #45
-0.9 pt/100
31.4% #272
30.0% #58
-0.6 pt/100
73.3% #159
—
+0.1 pt/100
Youngstown St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.9 pts/100
Cincinnati has the ball
OffenseYoungstown St allowsvs D1 avg
50.5% #213
52.3% #228
+0.1 pt/100
17.0% #203
17.8% #106
-1.0 pt/100
30.6% #174
30.7% #191
+0.2 pt/100
29.4% #323
36.0% #210
-0.3 pt/100
68.1% #325
—
-0.4 pt/100
Cincinnati net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Youngstown Stoffense vsCincinnatidefense
Share of shots by zone
Youngstown St shoots
Cincinnati allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.9%#7553.7%#3558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.3%#33739.4%#17039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17641.9%#29838.0%
Three33.8%#18431.0%#3533.7%
Cincinnatioffense vsYoungstown Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Cincinnati shoots
Youngstown St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.9%#12059.8%#21758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.0%#17137.4%#12339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17333.6%#4138.0%
Three33.9%#17535.5%#28033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Youngstown St
−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#263 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#182
Def reb %
69.3%
#191
Turnover %
18.8%
#313
Forced TO %
17.8%
#106
FT rate
31.4%
#272
FT allowed
36.0%
#210
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed−0.2
Cincinnati
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#100 of 365
Off reb %
30.6%
#174
Def reb %
72.7%
#45
Turnover %
17.0%
#203
Forced TO %
18.2%
#89
FT rate
29.4%
#323
FT allowed
30.0%
#58
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed+1.3

Cincinnati has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#100 of 365) to Youngstown St’s −1.8 (#263).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Youngstown St2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
15Cris CarrollFSr6'6"32-3230.317.45.21.82.759.4%39.6%7.178.0%32.7%
9Bryson DawkinsGSr6'2"32-3226.812.64.61.41.556.9%30.7%3.261.4%27.5%
2Rich RolfFJr6'7"31-3026.69.14.52.11.056.7%36.8%4.088.1%19.4%
0Jason NelsonGSr5'10"31-3125.06.92.82.91.644.1%28.0%2.475.0%20.3%
6Drew KingGJr6'3"32-117.42.83.12.91.250.9%29.4%0.571.1%12.5%
1Cam PolakGSr6'2"29-1017.25.81.60.61.155.3%38.5%3.679.3%21.5%
7Vlad SalaridzeFSr6'7"27-417.78.44.31.51.050.9%33.3%2.477.6%28.3%
10Imanuel ZorgvolCSr7'0"32-1414.75.72.80.30.965.2%33.3%0.469.6%21.7%
8Jaiden HaynesGFr6'3"21-216.04.81.50.50.352.9%33.3%2.381.8%18.5%
4Tyler RobinettFSr6'8"11-412.53.02.70.50.544.1%16.7%1.150.0%18.5%
5Shaheed SoleboGFr6'4"7-06.72.31.30.90.740.9%16.7%0.953.8%35.7%
3Derrick AndersonGSr6'1"6-05.52.70.71.00.057.7%16.7%1.050.0%38.7%
21Connor SwiderFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Markus NavarraFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Youngstown StCincinnati
Efficiency
106.8
108.5
108.3
99.2
68.3
68.5
—
—
Shooting
53.7%
50.5%
56.6%
50.2%
33.8%
33.9%
73.3%
68.1%
31.4%
29.4%
Ball control & glass
18.8%
17.0%
17.8%
18.2%
30.4%
30.6%
30.7%
27.3%
10.8%
8.3%
9.7%
6.8%
Style
49.4%
43.8%
42.0%
36.8%
14.0%
15.3%
53.8%
63.7%
36.9%
29.1%
Roster
3.58
2.24
6'4.3"
6'7"
93.2%
44.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Youngstown St
Returning minutes: 93.2%Returning production: 94.3%
Lost
  • Tae Blackshear 13.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Niagara
Added
  • Connor Swider no D1 minutes last season
  • Markus Navarra no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Cincinnati
Returning minutes: 44.8%Returning production: 40.2%
Lost
  • Day Day Thomas 30.4 mpg, 11.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Baba Miller 29.9 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jalen Celestine 23.1 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Sencire Harris 15.9 mpg, 5.4 ppg · transferred to E Michigan
  • Shon Abaev 11.6 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to Florida St
Added
  • Jalen Haynes no D1 minutes last season
  • Bryson Buckingham no D1 minutes last season
  • Lucas Atauri no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 45% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.