CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMizzou Arena, Columbia, MO

Alcorn St

Efficiency #355

2025-26: 9-23 · 8-12 conf

Missouri

Efficiency #67

2025-26: 20-13 · 10-9 conf

Wed, Nov 18 · TBD

64.4

win 5%

Projected

83.5

win 95%

No line posted yet.

Model: MIZ −19.1 · total 147.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Missouri 67.7, Alcorn St 68.6 → 68.0 possessions

−0.7

Missouri offense vs Alcorn St defense

+7.8

Alcorn St offense vs Missouri defense

−7.4

Projected total

147.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Missouri offense vs Alcorn St defense

+7.8

Alcorn St offense vs Missouri defense

+7.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Missouri by 19.1

19.1

Alcorn St side ◂▸ Missouri side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Missouri.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Alcorn St is the faster team (69.4, #119 of 365) and Missouri the slower (68.3, #182). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.9

model

Projected team totals

64.4 / 83.5

Alcorn St / Missouri

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#154

Alcorn St

67.7#235

Missouri

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMissouri

Where Missouri scores: shooting

Missouri shoots an effective 55.0% (#36); Alcorn St allows 55.0% (#330). Expect about 55.4%, 4.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.8 points per 100 possessions.

GlassMissouri

Missouri owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.1% is worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions for Missouri's offense.

AdvantageAlcorn St

Where Alcorn St struggles: shooting

Alcorn St shoots an effective 47.7% (#320); Missouri allows 51.5% (#183). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Missouri's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Alcorn St at about 37.1% of its shots from three, Missouri about 34.2%.

TurnoversMissouri

Missouri turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Missouri's offense.

TurnoversAlcorn St

Alcorn St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Alcorn St's offense.

Alcorn St has the ball

OffenseMissouri allowsvs D1 avg

47.7% #320

51.5% #183

-2.8 pt/100

19.6% #339

16.5% #186

-1.7 pt/100

26.9% #297

31.7% #238

-1.1 pt/100

31.8% #259

35.5% #193

-0.2 pt/100

70.8% #245

—

-0.1 pt/100

Alcorn St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.9 pts/100

Missouri has the ball

OffenseAlcorn St allowsvs D1 avg

55.0% #36

55.0% #330

+5.8 pt/100

17.8% #261

18.1% #93

-1.8 pt/100

34.9% #48

35.5% #347

+3.4 pt/100

42.1% #28

39.4% #293

+0.8 pt/100

69.1% #298

—

-0.3 pt/100

Missouri net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Alcorn Stoffense vsMissouridefense

Share of shots by zone

Alcorn St shoots

40.5

7.1

18.6

33.8

Missouri allows

32.8

7.0

17.0

43.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.2%#319	55.4%#72	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#133	39.5%#172	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.4%#351	36.2%#116	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	36.8%#341	33.7%

Missourioffense vsAlcorn Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Missouri shoots

43.9

7.6

12.5

35.9

Alcorn St allows

45.8

5.4

13.5

35.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.0%#21	65.9%#356	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.8%#247	39.5%#175	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.5%#301	34.7%#68	38.0%
Three	35.0%#112	33.0%#120	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Alcorn St

−5.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#352 of 365

Off reb %

26.9%

#297

Def reb %

64.5%

#347

Turnover %

19.6%

#339

Forced TO %

18.1%

#93

FT rate

31.8%

#259

FT allowed

39.4%

#293

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.9

Forcing turnovers+0.9

Foul shots drawn−0.8

Foul shots allowed−1.1

Missouri

+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#97 of 365

Off reb %

34.9%

#48

Def reb %

68.3%

#238

Turnover %

17.8%

#261

Forced TO %

16.5%

#186

FT rate

42.1%

#28

FT allowed

35.5%

#193

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.5

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Missouri has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#97 of 365) to Alcorn St’s −5.5 (#352).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Alcorn St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Alcorn St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Nick Woodard	SF	Sr	6'6"	32-32	28.7	8.6	4.2	1.3	1.6	46.5%	30.8%	3.3	61.7%	21.1%
0	Shane Lancaster	G	Jr	6'4"	32-26	28.6	10.8	2.3	2.2	1.2	53.6%	43.0%	4.4	72.5%	21.8%
1	Jameel Morris	PG	Jr	6'1"	30-25	29.5	11.2	2.5	2.9	2.2	48.5%	29.0%	2.3	78.9%	24.9%
8	Tycen McDaniels	F	Jr	6'8"	32-32	27.3	12.0	6.1	1.0	2.6	52.8%	25.0%	0.3	75.4%	27.5%
3	Davian Williams	PG	So	5'10"	32-16	26.4	7.8	2.9	1.3	1.6	44.2%	32.5%	3.8	68.0%	21.7%
12	Omari Hamilton	F	Sr	6'6"	32-13	21.4	7.8	4.5	0.5	1.2	48.5%	35.4%	1.5	69.6%	23.4%
30	Travis Roberts	SG	Sr	6'6"	31-10	16.5	3.6	1.7	0.4	0.5	41.5%	29.1%	2.5	50.0%	16.6%
4	Bryson Calamese	PG	Jr	6'2"	31-1	11.1	3.0	0.9	1.2	1.1	38.7%	28.6%	0.9	73.3%	23.5%
22	Mike Jones	SG	Fr	6'7"	13-5	15.0	3.5	3.4	1.1	1.2	40.2%	11.1%	0.7	47.1%	19.5%
2	Jeremy Ellis	PF	Jr	6'6"	22-0	6.3	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	42.9%	—	0.0	83.3%	11.8%
6	William Henderson	F	Jr	6'10"	11-0	10.4	2.6	1.6	0.1	1.0	42.2%	20.0%	0.5	40.0%	22.2%
10	Alex Hawkins	SG	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Ray Glasgow	SG	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Missouri2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Jordan Crawfordat South Dakota	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	31.2	14.4	2.9	1.4	1.3	51.7%	36.8%	6.5	74.5%	26.1%
0	Cord Stansberryat W Carolina	G	Sr	6'4"	30-29	30.0	14.1	4.0	2.1	1.4	43.6%	29.6%	6.3	80.3%	30.2%
4	Kennard Davis Jr.at BYU	G	Sr	6'6"	32-32	29.5	8.5	2.7	1.3	0.7	50.6%	32.1%	5.2	75.0%	16.8%
15	Bryson Tillerat Kansas	F	So	6'11"	35-31	25.9	7.9	6.1	1.0	1.8	48.0%	26.9%	1.5	69.4%	21.3%
1	Jamier Jonesat Providence	G	So	6'6"	31-19	25.7	11.9	4.5	1.4	1.7	59.5%	38.7%	1.0	66.4%	24.7%
23	Jaylen Careyat Tennessee	F	Sr	6'8"	37-8	18.4	7.4	6.0	1.3	0.9	48.7%	0.0%	0.1	49.1%	27.3%
11	Trent Pierce	G	Sr	6'10"	20-12	28.4	10.4	3.8	1.1	0.8	59.7%	38.4%	5.0	75.0%	19.3%
45	Luke Northweather	F	Sr	6'11"	20-2	12.3	3.0	2.4	0.6	0.3	61.1%	41.9%	1.6	57.1%	12.6%
7	Trent Burns	C	Jr	7'5"	21-0	8.7	2.1	1.9	0.1	0.5	45.6%	7.7%	0.6	50.0%	19.0%
6	Annor Boateng	G	Jr	6'6"	15-4	11.5	2.7	1.8	0.3	1.1	37.5%	25.0%	1.3	50.0%	23.2%
24	Nicholas Randall	F	So	6'9"	22-0	5.5	0.7	1.0	0.1	0.4	27.8%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	15.5%
2	Aaron Rowe	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Aidan Chronister	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
5	Jason Crowe Jr.	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Toni Bryant	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Jaylen Carey (from Tennessee), Jordan Crawford (from South Dakota), Kennard Davis Jr. (from BYU), Jamier Jones (from Providence), Cord Stansberry (from W Carolina), Bryson Tiller (from Kansas)

Alcorn St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Alcorn St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Nick Woodard	SF	Sr	6'6"	32-32	28.7	8.6	4.2	1.3	1.6	46.5%	30.8%	3.3	61.7%	21.1%
0	Shane Lancaster	G	Jr	6'4"	32-26	28.6	10.8	2.3	2.2	1.2	53.6%	43.0%	4.4	72.5%	21.8%
1	Jameel Morris	PG	Jr	6'1"	30-25	29.5	11.2	2.5	2.9	2.2	48.5%	29.0%	2.3	78.9%	24.9%
8	Tycen McDaniels	F	Jr	6'8"	32-32	27.3	12.0	6.1	1.0	2.6	52.8%	25.0%	0.3	75.4%	27.5%
3	Davian Williams	PG	So	5'10"	32-16	26.4	7.8	2.9	1.3	1.6	44.2%	32.5%	3.8	68.0%	21.7%
12	Omari Hamilton	F	Sr	6'6"	32-13	21.4	7.8	4.5	0.5	1.2	48.5%	35.4%	1.5	69.6%	23.4%
30	Travis Roberts	SG	Sr	6'6"	31-10	16.5	3.6	1.7	0.4	0.5	41.5%	29.1%	2.5	50.0%	16.6%
4	Bryson Calamese	PG	Jr	6'2"	31-1	11.1	3.0	0.9	1.2	1.1	38.7%	28.6%	0.9	73.3%	23.5%
22	Mike Jones	SG	Fr	6'7"	13-5	15.0	3.5	3.4	1.1	1.2	40.2%	11.1%	0.7	47.1%	19.5%
2	Jeremy Ellis	PF	Jr	6'6"	22-0	6.3	1.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	42.9%	—	0.0	83.3%	11.8%
6	William Henderson	F	Jr	6'10"	11-0	10.4	2.6	1.6	0.1	1.0	42.2%	20.0%	0.5	40.0%	22.2%
10	Alex Hawkins	SG	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Ray Glasgow	SG	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Alcorn St

Against the spread

Season

16-14-2

Home

5-4

Road

9-9-2

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-16-2

Home

2-7

Road

11-8-1

Last 10

2-6-2

avg vs total −4.2

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	N	L 56–65	+6.0	L−3.0	142.5	U121	84.2	97.7	66.5
Mar 9	Alabama StAdjEM #324	N	W 77–65	+7.5	W+19.5	142.0	P142	109.4	92.4	70.4
Mar 5	AR-Pine BluffAdjEM #323	H	L 48–83	+1.0	L−34.0	144.0	U131	64.5	111.6	74.4
Mar 3	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	H	W 67–64	−9.5	L−6.5	139.0	U131	103.7	99.1	64.6
Feb 28	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	A	L 51–72	+4.5	L−16.5	150.0	U123	72.5	102.3	70.4
Feb 26	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	A	L 87–92 OT	+6.5	W+1.5	145.0	O179	109.3	115.6	79.6
Feb 21	Jackson StAdjEM #353	H	W 83–65	−1.0	W+17.0	149.0	U148	115.8	90.7	71.7
Feb 16	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	H	L 78–86	+1.5	L−6.5	137.0	O164	109.0	120.1	71.6
Feb 14	BethuneAdjEM #260	H	W 57–55	+8.0	W+10.0	145.0	U112	89.3	86.2	63.8
Feb 9	Miss Valley StAdjEM #365	A	W 74–66	−5.5	W+2.5	140.0	P140	126.0	112.4	58.7

Missouri

Against the spread

Season

14-19

Home

8-10

Road

6-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.2

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-15-1

Home

11-7

Road

4-6-1

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.7

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#7MiamiAdjEM #30	N	L 66–80	+1.0	L−13.0	145.5	O146	98.3	119.1	67.2
Mar 12	KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	L 72–78	+3.5	L−2.5	149.5	O150	104.5	113.2	68.9
Mar 7	#20ArkansasAdjEM #19	H	L 84–88 OT	−2.5	L−6.5	161.5	O172	109.9	115.1	76.4
Mar 3	OklahomaAdjEM #47	A	L 64–80	+1.0	L−15.0	154.0	U144	100.7	125.9	63.5
Feb 28	Mississippi StAdjEM #144	A	W 88–64	−1.0	W+23.0	154.5	U152	127.9	93.0	68.8
Feb 24	#22TennesseeAdjEM #13	H	W 73–69	+4.0	W+8.0	144.0	U142	111.4	105.3	65.6
Feb 21	#20ArkansasAdjEM #19	A	L 86–94	+9.5	W+1.5	159.5	O180	125.7	137.4	68.4
Feb 18	#19VanderbiltAdjEM #12	H	W 81–80	+3.0	W+4.0	155.0	O161	115.9	114.5	69.9
Feb 14	TexasAdjEM #38	H	L 68–85	−2.0	L−19.0	150.5	O153	105.4	131.8	64.5
Feb 11	Texas A&MAdjEM #43	A	W 86–85	+6.5	W+7.5	160.0	O171	131.0	129.5	65.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Alcorn StMissouri

Efficiency

99.6

114.0

114.4

106.5

68.6

67.7

—

Shooting

47.7%

55.0%

46.5%

56.4%

33.3%

35.0%

70.8%

69.1%

31.8%

42.1%

Ball control & glass

19.6%

17.8%

18.1%

16.5%

26.9%

34.9%

35.5%

31.7%

10.5%

9.6%

11.1%

9.7%

Style

33.7%

36.4%

45.4%

48.3%

14.8%

14.1%

46.6%

51.2%

30.7%

32.1%

Roster

3.14

3.39

6'4.1"

6'6.9"

—

19.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Alcorn St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Alcorn St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Missouri

Returning minutes: 19.4%Returning production: 13.8%

Lost

Mark Mitchell Jr. 33.8 mpg, 18.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Anthony Robinson II 27.0 mpg, 8.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St
Jayden Stone 23.6 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
T.O. Barrett 22.8 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jacob Crews 20.7 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Shawn Phillips Jr. 19.3 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Jordan Crawford from South Dakota · 31.2 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
Cord Stansberry from W Carolina · 29.1 mpg, 13.7 ppg last season
Kennard Davis Jr. from BYU · 27.0 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
Bryson Tiller from Kansas · 25.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg last season
Jamier Jones from Providence · 24.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
Jaylen Carey from Tennessee · 18.4 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season

Returns 19% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.