North Dakota State Bison vs Colorado State Rams basketball preview & prediction
Wed, Nov 18 · 9:00 PM ET · Moby Arena, Fort Collins, CO
Non-conferenceMoby Arena, Fort Collins, CO
N Dakota St
1-3 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #223
@
Colorado St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #102
Wed, Nov 18 · 9:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Colorado St is the faster team (71.2, #162 of 365) and N Dakota St the slower (68.5, #250). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.3
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.3#270
N Dakota St
69.5#256
Colorado St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Colorado St has the ball+14.0
N Dakota St has the ball−3.1
Colorado St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 57.9% #52 · NDSU allows 71.3% #357+14.7
✗Few second chancesOR% 24.1% #296 · NDSU allows 28.0% #124−2.9
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.9% #149 · NDSU forces 16.1% #235 · ~11 turnovers+1.8
✓Gets to the lineFTR 32.5% #227 · NDSU allows 33.5% #144 · FT 81.1% #40+0.3
N Dakota St has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 46.9% #242 · CSU allows 48.4% #135−2.8
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.1% #119 · CSU forces 15.5% #258 · ~10 turnovers+2.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · CSU allows 21.5% #21−1.5
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 22.4% #329 · CSU allows 26.0% #56 · FT 68.2% #212−1.3
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootN Dakota Stoffense vsColorado Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
N Dakota St shoots
39.1
9.2
1.7
50.0
Colorado St allows
23.5
11.8
17.6
47.1
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 45.6%#314 | 46.4%#48 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 18.8%#292 | 57.1%#295 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 66.7%#16 | 38.1%#200 | 34.7% |
| Three | 31.9%#186 | 32.8%#181 | 32.5% |
Colorado Stoffense vsN Dakota Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Colorado St shoots
43.4
10.6
8.8
37.2
N Dakota St allows
42.3
2.1
8.5
47.2
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 77.6%#11 | 71.7%#321 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#183 | 100.0%#348 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 20.0%#279 | 8.3%#23 | 34.7% |
| Three | 33.3%#158 | 53.2%#356 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineN Dakota St
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#186 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#135
Def reb %
72.0%
#124
Turnover %
16.1%
#119
Forced TO %
16.1%
#235
FT rate
22.4%
#329
FT allowed
33.5%
#144
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn−3.9
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Colorado St
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#151 of 365
Off reb %
24.1%
#296
Def reb %
78.5%
#21
Turnover %
16.9%
#149
Forced TO %
15.5%
#258
FT rate
32.5%
#227
FT allowed
26.0%
#56
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.5
Defensive rebounding+3.4
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers−1.8
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+3.1
Colorado St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#151 of 365) to N Dakota St’s −0.8 (#186).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notN Dakota St2026-27 numbers · last game: Bakersfield, Nov 8
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 4-4 | 26.3 | 30 | — | Started last | 14.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 53.0% | 26.3% | 4.8 | 60.0% | 31.8% | |
| 44 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 4-4 | 24.0 | 25 | — | Started last | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 47.1% | 4.3 | 57.1% | 24.7% | |
| 4 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 4-1 | 22.5 | 35 | — | Started last | 10.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 62.5% | 47.4% | 4.8 | 70.0% | 22.8% | |
| 1 | G | So | 6'4" | 4-4 | 22.0 | 22 | — | Started last | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 29.6% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 55.0% | 27.7% | |
| 5 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-3 | 26.3 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 8.7 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 52.5% | 35.7% | 4.7 | 83.3% | 21.8% | |
| 2 | G | So | 6'3" | 4-0 | 19.3 | 26 | — | Bench | 11.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 61.5% | 46.2% | 3.3 | 87.5% | 28.7% | |
| 7 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 4-0 | 17.3 | 19 | — | Bench | 5.3 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 52.8% | 11.1% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 17.8% | |
| 3 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 4-4 | 15.0 | 15 | — | Started last | 3.5 | 6.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 43.8% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 17.2% | |
| 23 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 4-0 | 14.0 | 12 | — | Bench | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 50.0% | 28.6% | 1.8 | 100.0% | 27.2% | |
| 13 | G | Fr | 6'0" | 4-0 | 8.8 | 10 | — | Bench | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 2.0 | — | 14.8% | |
| 14 | G | So | 6'7" | 4-0 | 7.3 | 6 | — | Bench | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 33.3% | 14.8% | |
| 11 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 5.5 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 5.3% | |
| 35 | F | Fr | 7'0" | 1-0 | 2.0 | — | — | Out L3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 22 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 2.0 | — | — | Out L3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 28.6% | |
| 12 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 1.0 | — | — | Out L3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Into the starting lineup: Max Iversen.Out of the starting lineup: Andy Stefonowicz.
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesN Dakota St
Against the spread
Season
0-3
Home
0-0
Road
0-3
Last 10
0-3
avg cover −13.8
Missed the spread 3 straight
Over / under
Season
3-0
Home
0-0
Road
3-0
Last 10
3-0
avg vs total +14.0
Over 3 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | Bakersfield | A | L 80–91 | −2.5 | L−13.5 | 153.5 | O171 | 114.5 | 130.2 | 69.9 |
| Nov 6 | San Francisco | A | L 70–79 | +8.5 | L−0.5 | 145.5 | O149 | 103.3 | 116.6 | 67.7 |
| Nov 4 | Saint Mary's | A | L 64–105 | +13.5 | L−27.5 | 148.0 | O169 | 94.3 | 154.7 | 67.9 |
| Nov 2 | Crookston (MN) Golden Eagles | H | W 90–59 | — | — | — | — | 127.6 | 83.7 | 70.5 |
| Mar 19 | #3Michigan St | N | L 67–92 | +16.0 | L−9.0 | 144.5 | O159 | 92.0 | 126.4 | 72.8 |
| Mar 8 | North Dakota | N | W 70–62 | −11.0 | L−3.0 | 148.0 | U132 | 108.4 | 96.0 | 64.6 |
| Mar 7 | Omaha | N | W 74–50 | −8.0 | W+16.0 | 147.0 | U124 | 109.2 | 73.8 | 67.8 |
| Mar 5 | Oral Roberts | N | W 76–65 | −12.0 | L−1.0 | 147.5 | U141 | 113.3 | 96.9 | 67.1 |
| Feb 28 | North Dakota | H | W 96–63 | −12.0 | W+21.0 | 152.5 | O159 | 131.1 | 86.1 | 73.2 |
| Feb 26 | St Thomas | A | L 62–84 | +3.0 | L−19.0 | 155.5 | U146 | 95.1 | 128.8 | 65.2 |
Colorado St
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −3.5
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +1.8
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Idaho | H | W 78–67 | −16.5 | L−5.5 | 151.5 | U145 | 112.8 | 96.9 | 69.1 |
| Nov 2 | Montana St | H | W 84–74 | −11.5 | L−1.5 | 148.0 | O158 | 114.7 | 101.0 | 73.3 |
| Mar 18 | Saint Joseph's | H | L 64–69 | −6.0 | L−11.0 | 145.5 | U133 | 95.5 | 103.0 | 67.0 |
| Mar 12 | San Diego St | N | L 62–71 | +6.5 | L−2.5 | 142.0 | U133 | 89.1 | 102.1 | 69.6 |
| Mar 11 | Fresno St | N | W 67–63 | −7.5 | L−3.5 | 145.5 | U130 | 106.4 | 100.1 | 63.0 |
| Mar 7 | Boise St | H | L 67–78 | +1.5 | L−9.5 | 144.0 | O145 | 109.4 | 127.3 | 61.3 |
| Mar 4 | New Mexico | A | W 82–74 | +8.0 | W+16.0 | 151.0 | O156 | 112.9 | 101.9 | 72.6 |
| Feb 28 | San José St | A | W 85–73 | −8.0 | W+4.0 | 145.5 | O158 | 133.6 | 114.7 | 63.6 |
| Feb 24 | Fresno St | H | W 74–70 | −8.5 | L−4.5 | 148.5 | U144 | 111.0 | 105.0 | 66.7 |
| Feb 21 | San Diego St | H | W 83–74 | +2.5 | W+11.5 | 140.0 | O157 | 122.8 | 109.5 | 67.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeN Dakota StColorado St
Efficiency
107.8
111.7
111.6
105.6
69.3
69.5
3.6
1.4
Shooting
46.9%
57.9%
46.1%
62.5%
31.9%
33.3%
68.2%
81.1%
22.4%
32.5%
Ball control & glass
16.1%
16.9%
16.1%
15.5%
33.3%
24.1%
28.0%
21.5%
6.3%
10.5%
21.6%
2.8%
Style
48.0%
36.8%
42.1%
50.6%
7.0%
9.9%
48.1%
52.5%
42.1%
24.7%
Roster
2.56
3.12
6'4.4"
6'5.8"
23.2%
57.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputN Dakota St
Returning minutes: 23.2%Returning production: 18.0%
Lost
- Trevian Carson 31.6 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Damari Wheeler-Thomas 27.9 mpg, 13.2 ppg · transferred to Boise St
- Markhi Strickland 24.3 mpg, 11.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Noah Feddersen 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Colorado
- Tay Smith 19.8 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Treyson Anderson 18.3 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to Butler
Added
- Melvin Bell Jr. from San José St · 33.4 mpg, 8.7 ppg last season
- Rob Diaz III from Long Beach St · 21.9 mpg, 8.1 ppg last season
- Karl Poom from N Arizona · 19.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
- Jack Robison from Wisconsin · 0.9 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
- Oliver Junker no D1 minutes last season
- Colin Stack no D1 minutes last season
Returns 23% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Colorado St
Returning minutes: 57.9%Returning production: 59.7%
Lost
- Jevin Muniz 30.5 mpg, 9.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brandon Rechsteiner 27.7 mpg, 12.0 ppg · transferred to Kansas St
- Augustinas Kiudulas 14.6 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to W Michigan
- Nikola Djapa 5.2 mpg, 1.3 ppg · transferred to Wright St
- Darnez Slater 4.6 mpg, 1.0 ppg · transferred to Montana St
- Jon Mekonnen 1.6 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to S Dakota St
Added
- Justin Menard from Marist · 29.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg last season
- Pops Dunson no D1 minutes last season
- Eric Fiedler no D1 minutes last season
- River Sawyer no D1 minutes last season
- Amondo Miller Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- Docker Tedeschi no D1 minutes last season
Returns 58% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Wed, Nov 18
- Jackson St at Baylor · 12:00 PM ET
- Navy at Georgetown · 6:30 PM ET
- IU Indy at Penn State · 6:30 PM ET
- Detroit Mercy at E Michigan · 6:30 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Winthrop · 6:30 PM ET
- Samford at SC Upstate · 6:30 PM ET
- Tennessee Tech at UNC Asheville · 6:30 PM ET
- Binghamton at Lafayette · 7:00 PM ET
- Brown at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
- Wofford at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at UIC · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at FDU · 7:00 PM ET
- UNC Wilmington at Long Island · 7:00 PM ET
- NC Central at George Mason · 7:00 PM ET
- Siena at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Yale · 7:00 PM ET
- Morehead St at Ohio · 7:00 PM ET
- Elon at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Morgan St at NC A&T · 7:00 PM ET
- VMI at Longwood · 7:00 PM ET
- Furman at Radford · 7:00 PM ET
- FGCU at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Merrimack · 7:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at La Salle · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard vs Duquesne · 7:00 PM ET
- James Madison at Towson · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at Presbyterian · 7:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Marquette · 7:30 PM ET
- Youngstown St at Cincinnati · 7:30 PM ET
- LSU N Orleans at Texas Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Campbell at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- Boston College at Harvard · 8:00 PM ET
- Wichita St at Loyola Chicago · 8:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at LSU · 8:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Stonehill · 8:00 PM ET
- Cornell at Syracuse · 8:00 PM ET
- Purdue FW at Bradley · 8:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at Arkansas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Incarnate Word at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Florida A&M at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at Gardner-Webb · 8:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Nebraska · 8:30 PM ET
- Bethune at Creighton · 9:00 PM ET
- UConn at Arizona · 9:00 PM ET
- Portland at Colorado · 9:00 PM ET
- Fresno St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET
- Oakland at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- N Colorado at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
- Weber St at Utah State · 9:00 PM ET
- UC Riverside at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Idaho at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
- Washington St vs Hawai'i · 10:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at San Diego St · 10:00 PM ET
- Fullerton at UCLA · 10:30 PM ET
- Louisiana at San Francisco · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.