CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceLawlor Events Center, Reno, NV

Idaho

Efficiency #156

2025-26: 21-15 · 13-9 conf

Nevada

Efficiency #71

2025-26: 24-13 · 14-9 conf

Wed, Nov 18 · TBD

69.0

win 25%

Projected

76.9

win 75%

No line posted yet.

Model: NEV −7.9 · total 145.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Nevada 67.4, Idaho 68.4 → 67.5 possessions

−1.9

Nevada offense vs Idaho defense

+1.8

Idaho offense vs Nevada defense

−2.3

Projected total

145.9

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Nevada offense vs Idaho defense

+1.8

Idaho offense vs Nevada defense

+2.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Nevada by 7.9

7.9

Idaho side ◂▸ Nevada side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.8 against a projected 145.9, and the margin steps add to +8.0 against +7.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Nevada.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Idaho is the faster team (69.1, #139 of 365) and Nevada the slower (66.8, #253). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.9

model

Projected team totals

69.0 / 76.9

Idaho / Nevada

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.4#176

Idaho

67.4#263

Nevada

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageNevada

Where Nevada scores: ball control

Nevada turns it over on 14.8% of possessions (#55); Idaho forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#283). Expect about 14.6%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.

ClashNevada

Style match: 3-point volume

Nevada rarely shoots threes (32.3% of its shots); Idaho runs teams off the line (35.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.1% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageIdaho

Where Idaho struggles: the offensive glass

Idaho rebounds 28.4% of its own misses (#250); Nevada lets opponents grab 26.9% of their own misses (#33). Expect about 27.3%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashNevada

Style clash: ball movement

Nevada assists on 57.6% of its made baskets; Idaho breaks up passing offenses (assists on 45.1% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 51.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

Idaho has the ball

OffenseNevada allowsvs D1 avg

51.4% #177

51.1% #166

-0.0 pt/100

15.0% #64

17.0% #150

+1.1 pt/100

28.4% #250

26.9% #33

-1.9 pt/100

34.6% #193

38.9% #282

+0.3 pt/100

72.6% #181

—

+0.0 pt/100

Idaho net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.6 pts/100

Nevada has the ball

OffenseIdaho allowsvs D1 avg

50.0% #234

50.5% #128

-1.6 pt/100

14.8% #55

15.1% #283

+2.7 pt/100

32.2% #119

24.2% #5

-1.1 pt/100

44.8% #6

38.5% #273

+0.8 pt/100

75.7% #61

—

+0.3 pt/100

Nevada net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Idahooffense vsNevadadefense

Share of shots by zone

Idaho shoots

36.9

5.6

10.5

47.0

Nevada allows

38.7

5.9

12.9

42.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.8%#245	53.7%#36	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.2%#216	37.8%#132	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.0%#185	46.9%#359	38.0%
Three	34.1%#168	33.7%#168	33.7%

Nevadaoffense vsIdahodefense

Share of shots by zone

Nevada shoots

39.2

6.2

22.1

32.5

Idaho allows

36.5

7.8

20.7

35.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#335	55.5%#76	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.5%#236	43.7%#263	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#123	38.8%#195	38.0%
Three	35.8%#70	35.2%#264	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Idaho

+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#158 of 365

Off reb %

28.4%

#250

Def reb %

75.8%

Turnover %

15.0%

#64

Forced TO %

15.1%

#283

FT rate

34.6%

#193

FT allowed

38.5%

#273

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding+2.1

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Nevada

+4.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#26 of 365

Off reb %

32.2%

#119

Def reb %

73.1%

#33

Turnover %

14.8%

#55

Forced TO %

17.0%

#150

FT rate

44.8%

FT allowed

38.9%

#282

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.3

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn+2.5

Foul shots allowed−0.9

Nevada has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.9 (#26 of 365) to Idaho’s +0.6 (#158).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Idaho2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Jackson Rasmussen	F	Fr	6'7"	35-35	31.0	13.6	4.7	1.3	1.9	53.4%	32.1%	3.1	68.3%	26.3%
14	Kolton Mitchell	G	So	6'1"	33-32	30.4	13.7	3.3	3.8	1.6	50.3%	36.3%	6.1	79.7%	26.5%
3	Biko Johnson	G	Sr	6'2"	36-35	27.7	12.3	3.8	2.4	1.8	45.5%	30.8%	5.5	72.5%	29.3%
0	Brody Rowbury	F	Sr	6'11"	36-36	24.5	7.7	5.2	1.0	1.0	63.0%	38.7%	0.9	68.3%	16.5%
7	Jack Payne	G	Jr	6'6"	34-22	21.5	6.6	4.1	1.3	0.9	48.8%	31.6%	4.0	82.4%	19.8%
5	Isaiah Brickner	G	Sr	6'4"	35-13	20.5	11.9	3.9	0.9	1.2	55.6%	41.1%	3.2	76.0%	31.9%
21	Seth Joba	F	Jr	6'9"	36-0	17.2	5.2	3.5	0.4	0.7	55.4%	35.5%	2.6	65.6%	17.6%
1	Trevon Blassingame	G	Jr	6'4"	35-3	16.9	3.9	2.6	0.5	0.7	58.9%	37.9%	1.9	72.7%	13.2%
24	Miles Klapper	G	So	6'3"	29-4	12.3	3.8	2.0	0.8	0.5	56.3%	42.9%	1.4	68.4%	18.1%
4	Aidan Sevilla	G	Sr	6'0"	20-0	6.7	2.0	1.0	0.8	0.4	48.5%	28.6%	0.7	88.9%	19.5%
15	Ewan Steele	F	So	6'9"	15-0	6.3	1.5	1.6	0.5	0.1	44.4%	40.0%	0.3	60.0%	14.0%
10	Kristian Gonzalez	G	Jr	6'3"	1-0	18.0	18.0	1.0	0.0	2.0	93.8%	75.0%	4.0	100.0%	35.7%
2	Talon Jenkins	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Titus Yearout	G	Jr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Tyler Linhardt	F	Sr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
34	Will Jenson	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Nevada2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Elijah Price	F	So	6'9"	37-37	30.0	12.8	8.5	1.1	1.9	46.3%	35.5%	0.8	73.3%	26.5%
12	Tayshawn Comer	G	Sr	6'1"	37-36	25.2	11.0	1.8	3.6	2.0	44.2%	35.1%	3.1	79.7%	30.7%
7	Vaughn Weems	G	Jr	6'5"	34-25	25.0	10.1	4.2	0.9	1.1	60.4%	38.2%	2.0	76.8%	21.8%
6	Kaleb Lowery	F	Sr	6'8"	36-27	18.3	4.6	3.1	1.0	0.5	56.9%	33.9%	1.7	75.8%	14.4%
0	Chuck Bailey III	G	Jr	6'4"	33-14	18.0	6.3	2.4	1.0	0.5	45.9%	39.4%	2.2	74.4%	23.3%
3	Tyler Rolison	G	Jr	6'0"	34-4	17.2	5.5	1.7	2.6	1.0	41.1%	22.0%	1.2	76.0%	23.0%
17	Peyton White	G	Fr	6'6"	36-0	13.9	4.6	1.7	0.4	0.4	48.1%	32.7%	1.4	79.2%	20.2%
21	Joel Armotrading	C	Sr	6'10"	21-10	16.9	5.2	4.0	0.5	0.9	50.7%	—	0.0	77.4%	18.3%
5	Amire Robinson	G	So	6'3"	36-0	9.4	2.7	1.1	0.4	0.2	56.0%	33.3%	1.3	70.6%	16.0%
2	Myles Walker	G	Fr	5'10"	32-0	7.7	1.3	0.6	1.4	0.4	46.3%	33.3%	0.6	100.0%	13.7%
10	Jeriah Coleman	C	Sr	7'1"	29-0	5.8	1.1	1.6	0.0	0.1	70.6%	—	0.0	50.0%	9.6%
50	Ethan Croley	F	Fr	6'9"	16-0	5.3	1.9	1.3	0.0	0.3	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	46.2%	22.5%
24	Christopher Baudreau	F	Fr	6'9"	4-0	2.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	40.0%	—	0.0	—	37.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Idaho2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
12	Jackson Rasmussen	F	Fr	6'7"	35-35	31.0	13.6	4.7	1.3	1.9	53.4%	32.1%	3.1	68.3%	26.3%
14	Kolton Mitchell	G	So	6'1"	33-32	30.4	13.7	3.3	3.8	1.6	50.3%	36.3%	6.1	79.7%	26.5%
3	Biko Johnson	G	Sr	6'2"	36-35	27.7	12.3	3.8	2.4	1.8	45.5%	30.8%	5.5	72.5%	29.3%
0	Brody Rowbury	F	Sr	6'11"	36-36	24.5	7.7	5.2	1.0	1.0	63.0%	38.7%	0.9	68.3%	16.5%
7	Jack Payne	G	Jr	6'6"	34-22	21.5	6.6	4.1	1.3	0.9	48.8%	31.6%	4.0	82.4%	19.8%
5	Isaiah Brickner	G	Sr	6'4"	35-13	20.5	11.9	3.9	0.9	1.2	55.6%	41.1%	3.2	76.0%	31.9%
21	Seth Joba	F	Jr	6'9"	36-0	17.2	5.2	3.5	0.4	0.7	55.4%	35.5%	2.6	65.6%	17.6%
1	Trevon Blassingame	G	Jr	6'4"	35-3	16.9	3.9	2.6	0.5	0.7	58.9%	37.9%	1.9	72.7%	13.2%
24	Miles Klapper	G	So	6'3"	29-4	12.3	3.8	2.0	0.8	0.5	56.3%	42.9%	1.4	68.4%	18.1%
4	Aidan Sevilla	G	Sr	6'0"	20-0	6.7	2.0	1.0	0.8	0.4	48.5%	28.6%	0.7	88.9%	19.5%
15	Ewan Steele	F	So	6'9"	15-0	6.3	1.5	1.6	0.5	0.1	44.4%	40.0%	0.3	60.0%	14.0%
10	Kristian Gonzalez	G	Jr	6'3"	1-0	18.0	18.0	1.0	0.0	2.0	93.8%	75.0%	4.0	100.0%	35.7%
2	Talon Jenkins	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Titus Yearout	G	Jr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Tyler Linhardt	F	Sr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
34	Will Jenson	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Idaho

Against the spread

Season

16-17

Home

4-6

Road

7-9

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-20

Home

4-6

Road

6-10

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −5.9

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#2HoustonAdjEM #6	N	L 47–78	+24.0	L−7.0	137.5	U125	71.6	118.8	65.7
Mar 11	MontanaAdjEM #207	N	W 77–66	−3.5	W+7.5	146.5	U143	106.8	91.6	72.1
Mar 10	E WashingtonAdjEM #189	N	W 81–68	−2.5	W+10.5	148.0	O149	113.2	95.1	71.5
Mar 8	Montana StAdjEM #130	N	W 78–74	+1.0	W+5.0	143.0	O152	115.7	109.8	67.4
Mar 7	Sacramento StAdjEM #280	N	W 68–45	−7.0	W+16.0	158.5	U113	98.2	65.0	69.3
Mar 2	E WashingtonAdjEM #189	A	W 85–81	+3.0	W+7.0	150.5	O166	127.0	121.0	66.9
Feb 28	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	H	L 67–76	−2.0	L−11.0	156.0	U143	100.0	113.4	67.0
Feb 26	N ArizonaAdjEM #329	H	W 78–58	−10.5	W+9.5	146.0	U136	128.6	95.6	60.7
Feb 21	Sacramento StAdjEM #280	A	W 86–80	−4.0	W+2.0	165.0	O166	117.4	109.2	73.3
Feb 19	Portland StAdjEM #145	A	L 67–77	+3.5	L−6.5	145.0	U144	97.7	112.3	68.6

Nevada

Against the spread

Season

21-15-1

Home

12-7

Road

6-6-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.0

Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

21-16

Home

10-9

Road

7-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −1.2

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 25	AuburnAdjEM #41	A	L 69–75	+8.0	W+2.0	153.0	U144	107.2	116.5	64.4
Mar 21	LibertyAdjEM #103	H	W 73–63	−7.0	W+3.0	147.5	U136	117.6	101.5	62.0
Mar 18	Murray StAdjEM #108	H	W 89–75	−9.0	W+5.0	160.0	O164	123.2	103.8	72.2
Mar 13	Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 66–79	+6.5	L−6.5	144.5	O145	90.3	108.1	73.1
Mar 12	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	N	W 84–80	+3.5	W+7.5	137.5	O164	119.3	113.6	70.4
Mar 11	Air ForceAdjEM #360	N	W 80–45	−19.0	W+16.0	141.0	U125	112.3	63.2	71.2
Mar 7	Air ForceAdjEM #360	H	W 74–59	−25.5	L−10.5	145.0	U133	114.2	91.1	64.8
Mar 3	WyomingAdjEM #98	A	L 73–83	−1.5	L−11.5	144.0	O156	110.1	125.2	66.3
Feb 28	UNLVAdjEM #124	A	L 83–85 OT	−1.0	L−3.0	151.5	O168	110.0	112.7	75.4
Feb 24	New MexicoAdjEM #42	H	W 67–60	+1.0	W+8.0	150.0	U127	94.7	84.9	70.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

IdahoNevada

Efficiency

108.3

112.3

107.3

105.3

68.4

67.4

—

Shooting

51.4%

50.0%

51.6%

48.2%

34.1%

35.8%

72.6%

75.7%

34.6%

44.8%

Ball control & glass

15.0%

14.8%

15.1%

17.0%

28.4%

32.2%

24.2%

26.9%

9.0%

8.7%

9.0%

9.5%

Style

47.0%

32.3%

39.4%

39.9%

9.2%

15.7%

44.6%

57.6%

31.4%

34.5%

Roster

2.88

2.84

6'5.2"

6'5.1"

—

85.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Idaho

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Nevada

Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 81.9%

Lost

Corey Camper Jr. 28.8 mpg, 14.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.