CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceConvocation Center (OH), Athens, OH
Morehead St
Efficiency #266
2025-26: 20-13 · 16-6 conf
@
Ohio
Efficiency #233
2025-26: 15-17 · 9-10 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
73.0
win 32%
Projected
78.4
win 68%
No line posted yet.
Model: OHIO −5.4 · total 151.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Ohio 69.4, Morehead St 67.0 → 68.1 possessions
−0.6
Ohio offense vs Morehead St defense
+2.6
Morehead St offense vs Ohio defense
+1.1
Projected total
151.4
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Ohio offense vs Morehead St defense
+2.6
Morehead St offense vs Ohio defense
−1.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Ohio by 5.4
5.4
Morehead St side ◂▸ Ohio side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.3 against a projected 151.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Ohio.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Ohio is the faster team (70.4, #79 of 365) and Morehead St the slower (66.8, #251). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.4
model
Projected team totals
73.0 / 78.4
Morehead St / Ohio
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#288
Morehead St
69.4#93
Ohio
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetClashMorehead St
Style match: 3-point volume
Morehead St rarely shoots threes (30.5% of its shots); Ohio runs teams off the line (33.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 28.5% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageMorehead St
Where Morehead St scores: the offensive glass
Morehead St rebounds 35.8% of its own misses (#27); Ohio lets opponents grab 32.8% of their own misses (#289). Expect about 35.3%, 4.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Ohio, Ohio's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Morehead St at about 28.5% of its shots from three, Ohio about 38.1%.
AdvantageOhio
Where Ohio scores: ball control
Ohio turns it over on 15.5% of possessions (#101); Morehead St forces turnovers on 15.4% of opponent possessions (#258). Expect about 15.2%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashMorehead St
Style match: ball movement
Morehead St creates off the dribble (assists on 47.4% of its baskets); Ohio breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 46.1% — both habits push the same way.
Morehead St has the ball
OffenseOhio allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #285
53.0% #269
-0.5 pt/100
18.0% #272
16.1% #217
-0.3 pt/100
35.8% #27
32.8% #289
+3.0 pt/100
37.7% #109
38.2% #266
+0.4 pt/100
74.1% #125
—
+0.2 pt/100
Morehead St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.7 pts/100
Ohio has the ball
OffenseMorehead St allowsvs D1 avg
50.9% #197
50.2% #109
-1.1 pt/100
15.5% #101
15.4% #258
+2.0 pt/100
28.4% #248
35.8% #351
+0.8 pt/100
36.9% #132
35.6% #201
+0.2 pt/100
71.0% #237
—
-0.1 pt/100
Ohio net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.7 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMorehead Stoffense vsOhiodefense
Share of shots by zone
Morehead St shoots
39.8
8.7
21.1
30.4
Ohio allows
43.8
6.6
16.8
32.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.1%#270 | 58.6%#169 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.0%#122 | 39.8%#189 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.7%#86 | 38.8%#192 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.0%#281 | 36.8%#340 | 33.7% |
Ohiooffense vsMorehead Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Ohio shoots
38.7
6.0
18.2
37.0
Morehead St allows
39.7
6.2
15.3
38.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.2%#87 | 54.7%#55 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.9%#83 | 34.3%#49 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.6%#19 | 34.9%#74 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.1%#341 | 34.5%#221 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMorehead St
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#234 of 365
Off reb %
35.8%
#27
Def reb %
64.2%
#351
Turnover %
18.0%
#272
Forced TO %
15.4%
#258
FT rate
37.7%
#109
FT allowed
35.6%
#201
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Ohio
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#236 of 365
Off reb %
28.4%
#248
Def reb %
67.2%
#289
Turnover %
15.5%
#101
Forced TO %
16.1%
#217
FT rate
36.9%
#132
FT allowed
38.2%
#266
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−0.8
Morehead St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.0 (#234 of 365) to Ohio’s −1.1 (#236).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Morehead St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | George Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 30.4 | 13.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 51.8% | 37.7% | 5.1 | 83.4% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Davion Cunningham | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-9 | 27.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 45.2% | 30.0% | 2.2 | 73.1% | 29.3% | |
| 10 | Chase Dawson | G | So | 6'0" | 33-25 | 25.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 47.1% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 79.7% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Anouar Mellouk | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-24 | 24.9 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 53.3% | 25.7% | 1.1 | 58.6% | 20.7% | |
| 4 | Jon Carroll | F | Jr | 6'7" | 33-23 | 24.6 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 71.4% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Josiah LeGree | G | So | 6'0" | 33-9 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 51.8% | 36.9% | 2.5 | 81.5% | 28.4% | |
| 5 | Vince Dawson III | G | Fr | 6'6" | 33-10 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 53.8% | 38.0% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 13.0% | |
| 24 | Tamaury Releford | C | Sr | 6'9" | 33-10 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 64.1% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 22.5% | |
| 22 | Tyonne Farrell | F | So | 6'6" | 27-14 | 13.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 52.5% | 22.1% | |
| 33 | Clayton Parker | F | Fr | 6'8" | 21-8 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 37.1% | 18.9% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 19.2% | |
| 12 | Jace Winkleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 55.6% | 33.3% | 1.2 | — | 35.3% | |
| 1 | Jacob Wilson | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 24.7% | |
| 15 | Jaden Priester | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Jarvis Wright | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Kameren Wright | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Ohio2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Ohio's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Jackson Paveletzke | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-31 | 36.7 | 17.3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 51.1% | 31.6% | 3.2 | 80.5% | 26.4% | |
| 10 | Aidan Hadaway | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 31.8 | 14.4 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 54.3% | 30.1% | 4.6 | 69.7% | 26.3% | |
| 0 | Ajay Sheldon | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-30 | 30.8 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 50.9% | 37.1% | 5.6 | 70.0% | 15.3% | |
| 1 | Javan Simmons | F | Jr | 6'7" | 31-31 | 27.1 | 15.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 54.6% | 20.0% | 1.0 | 68.5% | 30.4% | |
| 4 | JJ Kelly | G | Fr | 6'6" | 31-26 | 26.6 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 58.0% | 32.9% | 2.4 | 77.3% | 17.2% | |
| 22 | Jalen Breath | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-1 | 13.4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 52.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 41.7% | 18.8% | |
| 3 | Dior Conners | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-3 | 11.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 42.2% | 27.5% | 2.9 | 78.8% | 24.4% | |
| 6 | Elijah Elliott | G | So | 6'3" | 13-5 | 21.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 34.2% | 22.7% | 1.7 | 63.6% | 16.7% | |
| 17 | Kiir Kuany | F | Fr | 6'9" | 31-1 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 57.2% | 24.1% | 0.9 | 73.7% | 20.5% | |
| 21 | Jesse Burris | G | Fr | 6'5" | 23-0 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 45.0% | 28.6% | 2.1 | 90.0% | 23.1% | |
| 5 | Ayden Evans | F | So | 6'10" | 11-0 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 47.7% | 16.7% | 0.5 | 66.7% | 17.5% | |
| 24 | Jordan Fisher | F | Fr | 6'5" | 5-0 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 53.6% | 20.0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 46.5% | |
| 11 | Carter Reese | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Chase Boals | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Zay Mosley | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Morehead St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | George Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 30.4 | 13.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 51.8% | 37.7% | 5.1 | 83.4% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Davion Cunningham | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-9 | 27.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 45.2% | 30.0% | 2.2 | 73.1% | 29.3% | |
| 10 | Chase Dawson | G | So | 6'0" | 33-25 | 25.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 47.1% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 79.7% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Anouar Mellouk | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-24 | 24.9 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 53.3% | 25.7% | 1.1 | 58.6% | 20.7% | |
| 4 | Jon Carroll | F | Jr | 6'7" | 33-23 | 24.6 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 71.4% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Josiah LeGree | G | So | 6'0" | 33-9 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 51.8% | 36.9% | 2.5 | 81.5% | 28.4% | |
| 5 | Vince Dawson III | G | Fr | 6'6" | 33-10 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 53.8% | 38.0% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 13.0% | |
| 24 | Tamaury Releford | C | Sr | 6'9" | 33-10 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 64.1% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 22.5% | |
| 22 | Tyonne Farrell | F | So | 6'6" | 27-14 | 13.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 52.5% | 22.1% | |
| 33 | Clayton Parker | F | Fr | 6'8" | 21-8 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 37.1% | 18.9% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 19.2% | |
| 12 | Jace Winkleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 55.6% | 33.3% | 1.2 | — | 35.3% | |
| 1 | Jacob Wilson | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 24.7% | |
| 15 | Jaden Priester | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Jarvis Wright | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Kameren Wright | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Morehead St
Against the spread
Season
18-12
Home
7-3
Road
10-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
6-4
Road
8-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.9
Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Tennessee St | N | L 67–93 | +5.0 | L−21.0 | 144.0 | O160 | 96.0 | 133.2 | 69.8 |
| Mar 6 | SE Missouri | N | W 66–61 | +4.0 | W+9.0 | 139.5 | U127 | 102.1 | 94.4 | 64.6 |
| Feb 26 | Little Rock | A | W 76–70 | +2.5 | W+8.5 | 139.0 | O146 | 117.8 | 108.5 | 64.5 |
| Feb 24 | S Indiana | H | W 64–63 | −7.5 | L−6.5 | 142.5 | U127 | 105.7 | 104.0 | 60.5 |
| Feb 21 | W Illinois | A | W 81–59 | −8.0 | W+14.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 127.6 | 92.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 19 | E Illinois | A | W 73–70 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 136.5 | O143 | 110.0 | 105.5 | 66.3 |
| Feb 14 | Tennessee St | H | W 94–86 | +1.5 | W+9.5 | 151.0 | O180 | 135.8 | 124.3 | 69.2 |
| Feb 12 | Tennessee Tech | H | W 73–66 | −4.0 | W+3.0 | 144.0 | U139 | 117.1 | 105.9 | 62.3 |
| Feb 7 | UT Martin | A | W 61–55 | +9.0 | W+15.0 | 136.0 | U116 | 101.3 | 91.3 | 60.2 |
| Feb 5 | SE Missouri | A | L 70–82 | +7.5 | L−4.5 | 144.0 | O152 | 99.9 | 117.1 | 70.1 |
Ohio
Against the spread
Season
12-18
Home
7-7
Road
4-8
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −2.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-15
Home
7-7
Road
5-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +5.8
Over 3 straightOver in 1 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | Kent State | N | L 75–86 | +3.5 | L−7.5 | 160.5 | O161 | 105.7 | 121.1 | 71.0 |
| Mar 6 | #19Miami OH | H | L 108–110 OT | +3.5 | W+1.5 | 160.0 | O218 | 129.8 | 132.3 | 83.2 |
| Mar 3 | UMass | A | L 82–94 | +1.5 | L−10.5 | 156.5 | O176 | 106.9 | 122.6 | 76.7 |
| Feb 28 | Toledo | H | L 67–79 | −2.5 | L−14.5 | 159.0 | U146 | 101.2 | 119.4 | 66.2 |
| Feb 21 | N Illinois | A | W 74–66 | −5.5 | W+2.5 | 150.0 | U140 | 114.6 | 102.2 | 64.6 |
| Feb 17 | Ball State | H | W 69–57 | −9.5 | W+2.5 | 144.5 | U126 | 115.4 | 95.3 | 59.8 |
| Feb 13 | #23Miami OH | A | L 74–90 | +7.5 | L−8.5 | 164.5 | U164 | 102.9 | 125.2 | 71.9 |
| Feb 7 | Old Dominion | A | L 72–78 | −3.5 | L−9.5 | 156.0 | U150 | 111.0 | 120.3 | 64.8 |
| Feb 3 | W Michigan | H | W 91–71 | −10.5 | W+9.5 | 156.0 | O162 | 131.6 | 102.7 | 69.2 |
| Jan 31 | Buffalo | A | W 95–83 | +2.5 | W+14.5 | 156.5 | O178 | 132.7 | 115.9 | 71.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMorehead StOhio
Efficiency
107.5
108.0
112.8
111.1
67.0
69.4
—
—
Shooting
49.2%
50.9%
49.7%
54.5%
32.0%
30.1%
74.1%
71.0%
37.7%
36.9%
Ball control & glass
18.0%
15.5%
15.4%
16.1%
35.8%
28.4%
35.8%
32.8%
10.6%
8.5%
9.2%
7.5%
Style
30.5%
38.1%
45.0%
45.2%
12.1%
9.2%
47.4%
46.6%
38.1%
23.8%
Roster
2.81
3.12
6'4.7"
6'4.9"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMorehead St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Ohio
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Ohio's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.