CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceEagleBank Arena, Fairfax, VA
NC Central
Efficiency #346
2025-26: 14-18 · 10-7 conf
@
George Mason
Efficiency #83
2025-26: 23-10 · 11-8 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
63.3
win 10%
Projected
78.4
win 90%
No line posted yet.
Model: GMU −15.1 · total 141.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: George Mason 65.9, NC Central 67.3 → 64.9 possessions
−7.5
George Mason offense vs NC Central defense
+6.2
NC Central offense vs George Mason defense
−5.2
Projected total
141.7
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
George Mason offense vs NC Central defense
+6.2
NC Central offense vs George Mason defense
+5.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
George Mason by 15.1
15.1
NC Central side ◂▸ George Mason side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help George Mason.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NC Central is the faster team (66.6, #261 of 365) and George Mason the slower (64.7, #334). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
64.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.7
model
Projected team totals
63.3 / 78.4
NC Central / George Mason
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.3#266
NC Central
65.9#345
George Mason

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageNC Central
Where NC Central struggles: shooting
NC Central shoots an effective 47.5% (#328); George Mason allows 49.5% (#83). Expect about 48.2%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
George Mason averages 64.7 possessions per 40, NC Central 66.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageGeorge Mason
Where George Mason scores: shooting
George Mason shoots an effective 52.7% (#113); NC Central allows 54.5% (#317). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.
GlassGeorge Mason
George Mason owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.4% is worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions for George Mason's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (NC Central's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NC Central at about 36.9% of its shots from three, George Mason about 36.8%.
TurnoversGeorge Mason
George Mason turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against George Mason's offense.
NC Central has the ball
OffenseGeorge Mason allowsvs D1 avg
47.5% #328
49.5% #83
-4.4 pt/100
18.1% #278
15.4% #256
+0.1 pt/100
30.0% #201
28.3% #79
-0.8 pt/100
39.3% #72
28.9% #43
-0.2 pt/100
73.8% #139
—
+0.1 pt/100
NC Central net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.2 pts/100
George Mason has the ball
OffenseNC Central allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #113
54.5% #317
+3.6 pt/100
15.8% #122
19.9% #26
-1.8 pt/100
31.3% #149
39.4% #364
+3.1 pt/100
41.1% #44
36.9% #233
+0.5 pt/100
72.5% #188
—
+0.0 pt/100
George Mason net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
NC Centraloffense vsGeorge Masondefense
Share of shots by zone
NC Central shoots
George Mason allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.3%#31660.1%#23458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.8%#22538.8%#15739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.5%#32530.9%#838.0%
Three32.6%#24732.6%#9133.7%
George Masonoffense vsNC Centraldefense
Share of shots by zone
George Mason shoots
NC Central allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.8%#4059.8%#21658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.5%#3438.1%#13939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.0%#31338.4%#17138.0%
Three33.3%#21436.4%#32133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
NC Central
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#233 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#201
Def reb %
60.6%
#364
Turnover %
18.1%
#278
Forced TO %
19.9%
#26
FT rate
39.3%
#72
FT allowed
36.9%
#233
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−2.8
Ball security−0.9
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−0.4
George Mason
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#36 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#149
Def reb %
71.7%
#79
Turnover %
15.8%
#122
Forced TO %
15.4%
#256
FT rate
41.1%
#44
FT allowed
28.9%
#43
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed+1.6

George Mason has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#36 of 365) to NC Central’s −1.0 (#233).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NC Central2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
11Gage LattimoreGSo6'2"31-3136.816.64.32.41.949.6%39.2%6.786.7%26.7%
2Dionte JohnsonGSr6'0"32-3230.88.64.05.12.448.2%32.9%2.776.8%20.3%
21Kelechi OkworogwoFSr6'6"32-1325.68.25.10.50.854.0%20.0%0.669.1%18.7%
5Tekao CarpenterGSr6'3"30-2225.96.82.01.41.346.9%31.6%3.875.5%18.4%
1Kyric DavisGSr6'5"31-1722.58.13.50.91.650.8%11.8%0.572.5%23.9%
8Jae SlackFSr6'6"26-1023.910.33.30.81.248.9%35.7%2.775.0%25.8%
7Khouri CarveyFSr6'9"22-2126.213.66.31.51.858.1%25.0%0.555.3%30.0%
10Ryan ArcheyGSo6'0"25-08.03.20.80.80.942.5%28.6%0.861.9%32.3%
22Ramondo Battle IIFSr6'8"19-59.32.51.70.50.332.8%18.2%1.752.9%23.4%
13Jonathan DunnFJr6'7"11-913.84.31.70.50.654.5%0.0%0.255.0%18.1%
12Justin EdwardsGSr5'9"18-06.10.70.80.90.528.1%20.0%0.380.0%14.0%
3Khalil ArnoldGJr6'4"10-06.41.70.80.10.147.2%38.5%1.3—16.5%
9Gbenga OlubiFSr6'7"15-03.40.50.50.10.131.8%33.3%0.2—13.2%
4Camren DanielsGFr6'5"9-02.81.00.60.20.131.8%25.0%0.4100.0%25.4%
0Caleb EllisonGSo6'0"2-03.01.00.00.00.0100.0%—0.0—7.5%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
NC CentralGeorge Mason
Efficiency
103.2
110.8
115.7
105.7
67.3
65.9
—
—
Shooting
47.5%
52.7%
46.7%
54.3%
32.6%
33.3%
73.8%
72.5%
39.3%
41.1%
Ball control & glass
18.1%
15.8%
19.9%
15.4%
30.0%
31.3%
39.4%
28.3%
9.4%
9.6%
12.4%
9.8%
Style
33.9%
35.2%
41.7%
46.4%
17.3%
12.1%
52.7%
49.9%
26.5%
33.9%
Roster
3.53
3.24
6'3.9"
6'6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
NC Central
Returning minutes: 99.6%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

George Mason
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.