CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceGervin GameAbove Center, Ypsilanti, MI
Detroit Mercy
Efficiency #224
2025-26: 17-15 · 14-9 conf
@
E Michigan
Efficiency #247
2025-26: 10-21 · 4-14 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
71.5
win 39%
Projected
74.8
win 61%
No line posted yet.
Model: EMU −3.3 · total 146.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: E Michigan 67.8, Detroit Mercy 69.2 → 68.7 possessions
+0.8
E Michigan offense vs Detroit Mercy defense
−1.7
Detroit Mercy offense vs E Michigan defense
−1.0
Projected total
146.3
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
E Michigan offense vs Detroit Mercy defense
−1.7
Detroit Mercy offense vs E Michigan defense
+1.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
E Michigan by 3.3
3.3
Detroit Mercy side ◂▸ E Michigan side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help E Michigan.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Detroit Mercy is the faster team (69.7, #103 of 365) and E Michigan the slower (68.3, #184). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.3
model
Projected team totals
71.5 / 74.8
Detroit Mercy / E Michigan
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.2#106
Detroit Mercy
67.8#226
E Michigan

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
ClashDetroit Mercy
Style match: 3-point volume
Detroit Mercy rarely shoots threes (30.7% of its shots); E Michigan runs teams off the line (35.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 30.0% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageDetroit Mercy
Where Detroit Mercy struggles: shooting
Detroit Mercy shoots an effective 49.5% (#267); E Michigan allows 50.3% (#115). Expect about 49.7%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.
ClashE Michigan
Style clash: ball movement
E Michigan creates off the dribble (assists on 47.9% of its baskets); Detroit Mercy allows assists on 58.3% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 53.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Detroit Mercy has the ball
OffenseE Michigan allowsvs D1 avg
49.5% #267
50.3% #115
-2.2 pt/100
16.0% #143
15.6% #244
+1.5 pt/100
33.3% #81
29.1% #109
+0.8 pt/100
32.6% #247
35.5% #198
-0.1 pt/100
78.9% #4
—
+0.6 pt/100
Detroit Mercy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100
E Michigan has the ball
OffenseDetroit Mercy allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #264
52.2% #223
-0.8 pt/100
17.4% #229
14.4% #324
+1.4 pt/100
27.8% #273
30.8% #193
-1.0 pt/100
29.3% #325
37.6% #254
-0.2 pt/100
73.2% #162
—
+0.1 pt/100
E Michigan net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Detroit Mercyoffense vsE Michigandefense
Share of shots by zone
Detroit Mercy shoots
E Michigan allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.2%#29457.0%#11258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.7%#15735.7%#8239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.4%#9642.0%#30438.0%
Three35.1%#10832.9%#11133.7%
E Michiganoffense vsDetroit Mercydefense
Share of shots by zone
E Michigan shoots
Detroit Mercy allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.7%#12959.0%#19158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.4%#25946.4%#32539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.5%#33834.4%#5938.0%
Three32.4%#25833.3%#14033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Detroit Mercy
−1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#254 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#81
Def reb %
69.2%
#193
Turnover %
16.0%
#143
Forced TO %
14.4%
#324
FT rate
32.6%
#247
FT allowed
37.6%
#254
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.6
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.6
E Michigan
−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#305 of 365
Off reb %
27.8%
#273
Def reb %
70.9%
#109
Turnover %
17.4%
#229
Forced TO %
15.6%
#244
FT rate
29.3%
#325
FT allowed
35.5%
#198
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.1

Detroit Mercy has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.4 (#254 of 365) to E Michigan’s −3.0 (#305).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Detroit Mercy2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Detroit Mercy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Orlando LovejoyGSr6'3"31-3131.015.83.63.72.045.1%14.8%0.989.2%31.3%
33TJ NadeauGSo6'5"31-3126.513.83.21.00.960.9%46.7%4.886.3%25.2%
1Tyler SprattGFr6'5"32-2824.89.93.61.50.952.2%38.5%4.578.1%22.6%
23Legend GeeterFSr6'8"29-2525.68.36.42.31.651.1%29.4%1.269.0%20.5%
11Lance StoneGFr5'8"32-120.86.81.32.01.241.0%33.0%3.187.3%22.9%
30Ryan KalambayFSo6'9"31-1820.64.25.50.50.657.5%—0.071.4%11.5%
20London MaidenFJr6'8"31-915.56.33.00.41.154.5%—0.064.3%24.5%
10Nate JohnsonGSo6'7"26-410.32.81.90.40.534.2%16.7%0.958.1%22.2%
13Jared LaryGSr6'6"26-09.72.31.80.70.835.7%24.0%1.073.3%21.5%
4Keshawn FisherGFr6'7"20-111.45.52.20.81.149.0%27.5%2.082.4%31.0%
2Je'kel CottonGFr6'6"27-07.42.32.50.10.244.4%29.3%1.550.0%20.5%
7Ayden CarterGJr6'5"9-520.612.24.31.22.057.7%22.2%2.076.9%32.5%
6Xavier Istomin-MonroeCFr7'1"19-78.31.81.70.10.655.2%—0.025.0%16.5%
25Zak AbdallaGFr6'2"3-02.31.70.30.30.075.0%100.0%0.3100.0%21.9%
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Detroit MercyE Michigan
Efficiency
107.9
103.9
110.6
107.6
69.2
67.8
—
—
Shooting
49.5%
49.6%
48.1%
50.0%
35.1%
32.4%
78.9%
73.2%
32.6%
29.3%
Ball control & glass
16.0%
17.4%
14.4%
15.6%
33.3%
27.8%
30.8%
29.1%
8.9%
9.5%
7.9%
9.7%
Style
30.7%
31.8%
41.3%
49.7%
14.9%
13.1%
48.5%
47.9%
35.6%
30.3%
Roster
2.40
3.20
6'5.2"
6'5.1"
—
34.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Detroit Mercy
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Detroit Mercy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

E Michigan
Returning minutes: 34.4%Returning production: 32.0%
Lost
  • Addison Patterson 29.7 mpg, 13.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Godslove Nwabude 18.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Carlos Hart 18.7 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jon Sanders II 14.9 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mak Manciel 13.0 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mehki Ellison 11.6 mpg, 3.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Jabri Fitzpatrick from New Haven · 34.5 mpg, 15.0 ppg last season
  • Emanuel Richards from Longwood · 26.0 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
  • Kilian Brockhoff from William & Mary · 21.7 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
  • Sencire Harris from Cincinnati · 15.9 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
  • Omar Suleiman no D1 minutes last season
  • Aviv Aronov no D1 minutes last season

Returns 34% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Tue, Nov 172026-27Detroit Mercy 0 – 0 E Michigan
Tue, Nov 182025-26E Michigan 72 – 62 Detroit Mercy

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.