CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLawler Arena, North Andover, MA
Boston U
Efficiency #237
2025-26: 17-17 · 12-9 conf
@
Merrimack
Efficiency #158
2025-26: 23-11 · 19-4 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
66.9
win 29%
Projected
73.1
win 71%
No line posted yet.
Model: MRMK −6.3 · total 140.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Merrimack 65.8, Boston U 65.5 → 63.0 possessions
−11.5
Merrimack offense vs Boston U defense
+3.0
Boston U offense vs Merrimack defense
+0.3
Projected total
140.0
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Merrimack offense vs Boston U defense
+3.0
Boston U offense vs Merrimack defense
−0.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.6
Merrimack by 6.3
6.3
Boston U side ◂▸ Merrimack side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Merrimack.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 63.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Merrimack is the faster team (63.7, #359 of 365) and Boston U the slower (63.5, #361). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
63.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.0
model
Projected team totals
66.9 / 73.1
Boston U / Merrimack
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.5#357
Boston U
65.8#347
Merrimack

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Merrimack averages 63.7 possessions per 40, Boston U 63.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 61 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageMerrimack
Where Merrimack scores: ball control
Merrimack turns it over on 14.8% of possessions (#56); Boston U forces turnovers on 13.0% of opponent possessions (#353). Expect about 13.3%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageBoston U
Where Boston U struggles: ball control
Boston U turns it over on 17.8% of possessions (#255); Merrimack forces turnovers on 20.4% of opponent possessions (#16). Expect about 19.6%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.
GlassMerrimack
Merrimack gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.3% is worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions against Merrimack's offense.
DefenseMerrimack
Merrimack's shot-blocking
Merrimack ranks #15 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.2% of Boston U's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
DefenseMerrimack
Merrimack's ball-hawking
Merrimack ranks #12 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.1% of Boston U's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Boston U has the ball
OffenseMerrimack allowsvs D1 avg
57.5% #11
46.7% #17
+1.8 pt/100
17.8% #255
20.4% #16
-3.5 pt/100
28.0% #269
39.9% #365
+1.8 pt/100
31.4% #270
37.1% #239
-0.1 pt/100
73.4% #157
—
+0.1 pt/100
Boston U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.1 pts/100
Merrimack has the ball
OffenseBoston U allowsvs D1 avg
49.1% #288
53.6% #288
-0.1 pt/100
14.8% #56
13.0% #353
+4.3 pt/100
24.8% #343
28.0% #65
-3.1 pt/100
38.2% #99
30.5% #73
-0.1 pt/100
78.8% #8
—
+0.6 pt/100
Merrimack net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Boston Uoffense vsMerrimackdefense
Share of shots by zone
Boston U shoots
Merrimack allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.0%#7351.4%#1158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)54.8%#142.9%#24739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.4%#2038.7%#18838.0%
Three38.8%#530.3%#1233.7%
Merrimackoffense vsBoston Udefense
Share of shots by zone
Merrimack shoots
Boston U allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.4%#33254.3%#4458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.5%#20853.8%#36439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.5%#32145.4%#35238.0%
Three32.7%#24336.6%#33033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Boston U
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#298 of 365
Off reb %
28.0%
#269
Def reb %
72.0%
#65
Turnover %
17.8%
#255
Forced TO %
13.0%
#353
FT rate
31.4%
#270
FT allowed
30.5%
#73
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−2.5
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Merrimack
−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#206 of 365
Off reb %
24.8%
#343
Def reb %
60.1%
#365
Turnover %
14.8%
#56
Forced TO %
20.4%
#16
FT rate
38.2%
#99
FT allowed
37.1%
#239
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.8
Defensive rebounding−3.0
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers+2.5
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed−0.5

Merrimack has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#206 of 365) to Boston U’s −2.8 (#298).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Boston U2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
20Michael McNairGJr6'5"34-3436.116.95.12.11.361.4%44.4%7.373.8%25.5%
2Chance GladdenGFr6'4"33-3133.414.43.24.52.752.7%34.7%3.086.7%27.9%
6Sam HughesFFr6'6"34-2630.19.03.41.31.152.9%37.2%5.480.6%19.5%
7Azmar AbdullahGSo6'3"34-2229.68.33.41.51.353.7%39.4%4.785.0%18.3%
14Ben DeftyFSo7'0"33-3329.415.16.81.92.369.4%—0.067.1%28.1%
21Donte Tisinger Jr.GFr6'3"28-020.16.42.01.81.057.6%36.9%2.362.1%19.9%
30Ben RoyGSr6'0"12-1226.86.61.52.51.164.5%45.8%2.053.3%14.6%
3Malcolm ChimezieFSr6'8"14-921.45.25.51.10.963.3%—0.050.0%14.7%
32Quinn NielsenFJr6'11"29-08.31.32.50.10.457.1%—0.048.1%12.1%
1Ethan OkwuosaGSr6'3"8-219.34.43.81.00.539.3%25.0%2.566.7%19.0%
15Andrew BhesaniaFFr6'9"3-010.37.72.30.00.071.4%44.4%3.0100.0%27.7%
8Peter CarrGSo6'5"4-04.80.50.50.30.525.0%0.0%0.80.0%21.3%
5Kyrone AlexanderGJr6'5"1-111.01.02.00.01.00.0%0.0%1.050.0%21.7%
0Matai BaptisteGJr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
41Otto LandrumFSr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
25Spencer JoynerGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Boston UMerrimack
Efficiency
111.2
107.2
114.5
106.3
65.5
65.8
—
—
Shooting
57.5%
49.1%
56.9%
49.1%
38.8%
32.7%
73.4%
78.8%
31.4%
38.2%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
14.8%
13.0%
20.4%
28.0%
24.8%
28.0%
39.9%
10.8%
7.2%
8.9%
13.0%
Style
43.8%
46.1%
40.7%
38.0%
7.0%
13.5%
53.6%
56.0%
23.5%
17.6%
Roster
2.04
3.46
6'5.6"
6'4.3"
—
36.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Boston U
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Merrimack
Returning minutes: 36.3%Returning production: 32.9%
Lost
  • Ernest Shelton 36.9 mpg, 15.9 ppg · transferred to Boston College
  • Kevair Kennedy 36.8 mpg, 18.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Andrés Marrero 27.4 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • KC Ugwuakazi 17.8 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jaylen Stinson 3.8 mpg, 0.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Aliou Cisse 2.7 mpg, 0.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Denver Anglin from Iona · 27.2 mpg, 9.0 ppg last season
  • Elijah Wilborn from James Madison · 8.0 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
  • Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbano from Fresno St · 3.9 mpg, 0.9 ppg last season
  • Rocco Westfield no D1 minutes last season
  • JP Skoric no D1 minutes last season
  • Jacob Moore no D1 minutes last season

Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 152025-26Merrimack 91 – 79 Boston U

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.