Weber State Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies basketball preview & prediction
Wed, Nov 18 · 9:00 PM ET · Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, UT
Non-conferenceDee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, UT
Weber St
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #281
@
Utah State
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #23
Wed, Nov 18 · 9:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 75.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Weber St is the faster team (79.4, #19 of 365) and Utah State the slower (72.4, #123). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
75.2
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
74.6#19
Weber St
71.1#142
Utah State
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Utah State has the ball+18.7
Weber St has the ball−13.4
Utah State has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 63.5% #16 · WEB allows 63.5% #344+15.4
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.3% #157 · WEB forces 13.9% #294 · ~11 turnovers+3.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 35.2% #197 · WEB allows 51.6% #312 · FT 67.4% #223+0.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 35.5% #104 · WEB allows 24.2% #52−0.4
Weber St has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 44.2% #277 · USU allows 36.1% #12−11.5
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 26.5% #295 · USU allows 31.1% #113 · FT 61.5% #293−1.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 29.6% #220 · USU allows 28.6% #132−1.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 13.9% #61 · USU forces 20.7% #93 · ~13 turnovers+0.8
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootWeber Stoffense vsUtah Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Weber St shoots
26.4
11.2
17.6
44.8
Utah State allows
41.7
4.8
9.5
44.0
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.6%#186 | 48.6%#64 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.9%#141 | 0.0%#1 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.4%#151 | 37.5%#197 | 34.7% |
| Three | 28.1%#245 | 17.9%#7 | 32.5% |
Utah Stateoffense vsWeber Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Utah State shoots
60.2
5.7
6.8
27.3
Weber St allows
38.9
10.2
12.0
38.9
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 67.9%#73 | 69.0%#295 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 20.0%#275 | 36.4%#174 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 66.7%#16 | 38.5%#202 | 34.7% |
| Three | 34.2%#143 | 48.9%#351 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineWeber St
−4.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#243 of 365
Off reb %
29.6%
#220
Def reb %
75.8%
#52
Turnover %
13.9%
#61
Forced TO %
13.9%
#294
FT rate
26.5%
#295
FT allowed
51.6%
#312
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+2.5
Ball security+3.1
Forcing turnovers−3.0
Foul shots drawn−2.8
Foul shots allowed−3.6
Utah State
+6.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#93 of 365
Off reb %
35.5%
#104
Def reb %
71.4%
#132
Turnover %
17.3%
#157
Forced TO %
20.7%
#93
FT rate
35.2%
#197
FT allowed
31.1%
#113
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed+1.8
Utah State has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.1 (#93 of 365) to Weber St’s −4.4 (#243).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notWeber St2026-27 numbers · last game: Utah Valley, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | C | So | 6'9" | 2-2 | 27.5 | 27 | — | Started last | 11.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 57.9% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 21.0% | |
| 23 | F | So | 6'5" | 2-2 | 26.5 | 22 | — | Started last | 4.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 0.0% | 16.2% | |
| 13 | G | Fr | 5'11" | 2-2 | 26.0 | 28 | — | Started last | 11.5 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 38.0% | 12.5% | 4.0 | 100.0% | 33.9% | |
| 0 | G | So | 6'1" | 2-0 | 24.5 | 23 | — | Bench | 15.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 55.6% | 40.0% | 7.5 | 20.0% | 33.4% | |
| 21 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 2-2 | 20.0 | 20 | — | Started last | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 16.7% | 11.1% | 4.5 | 100.0% | 12.6% | |
| 8 | G | So | 6'6" | 2-2 | 19.5 | 29 | — | Started last | 13.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 58.3% | 50.0% | 5.0 | 66.7% | 28.7% | |
| 4 | F | So | 6'9" | 2-0 | 18.5 | 20 | — | Bench | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 11.5% | 14.3% | 3.5 | 75.0% | 21.7% | |
| 5 | G | So | 6'2" | 2-0 | 15.5 | 15 | — | Bench | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 40.0% | 5.0 | 100.0% | 28.4% | |
| 33 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 13.5 | 13 | — | Bench | 6.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 83.3% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 13.0% | |
| 11 | G | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 3.5 | 3 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 14.4% | |
| 15 | C | Jr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 37.5% | |
| 10 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 3.0 | — | — | Missed last | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 16.1% | |
| 32 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 3.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 33.9% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesWeber St
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-1
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −11.8
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +20.0
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Utah Valley | H | L 93–101 | +7.5 | L−0.5 | 156.5 | O194 | 118.0 | 128.2 | 78.8 |
| Nov 2 | Oregon St | A | L 61–102 | +18.0 | L−23.0 | 160.5 | O163 | 76.3 | 127.6 | 79.9 |
| Mar 9 | E Washington | N | L 79–84 | +3.5 | L−1.5 | 154.5 | O163 | 113.9 | 121.1 | 69.3 |
| Mar 2 | Portland St | A | L 60–84 | +5.0 | L−19.0 | 144.5 | U144 | 87.0 | 121.8 | 68.9 |
| Feb 28 | Idaho St | A | W 83–73 | +2.0 | W+12.0 | 153.0 | O156 | 122.0 | 107.3 | 68.1 |
| Feb 21 | Montana | H | W 92–72 | −2.5 | W+17.5 | 152.0 | O164 | 136.2 | 106.6 | 67.5 |
| Feb 19 | Montana St | H | W 82–79 OT | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 148.0 | O161 | 112.7 | 108.5 | 72.8 |
| Feb 14 | E Washington | A | L 66–84 | +3.0 | L−15.0 | 155.0 | U150 | 96.1 | 122.3 | 68.7 |
| Feb 12 | Idaho | A | W 83–72 | +5.5 | W+16.5 | 154.0 | O155 | 129.1 | 112.0 | 64.3 |
| Feb 7 | N Arizona | H | W 72–53 | −7.0 | W+12.0 | 151.0 | U125 | 122.6 | 90.3 | 58.7 |
Utah State
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
2-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +7.0
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −2.8
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Omaha | H | W 90–56 | −29.0 | W+5.0 | 153.5 | U146 | 123.6 | 76.9 | 72.8 |
| Nov 2 | Idaho St | H | W 94–58 | −27.0 | W+9.0 | 150.0 | O152 | 130.7 | 80.6 | 71.9 |
| Mar 22 | #1Arizona | N | L 66–78 | +11.5 | L−0.5 | 154.0 | U144 | 102.5 | 121.2 | 64.4 |
| Mar 20 | #8Villanova | N | W 86–76 | −2.0 | W+8.0 | 147.5 | O162 | 126.2 | 111.5 | 68.1 |
| Mar 14 | San Diego St | N | W 73–62 | −2.5 | W+8.5 | 146.0 | U135 | 111.8 | 95.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 13 | Nevada | N | W 79–66 | −6.5 | W+6.5 | 144.5 | O145 | 108.1 | 90.3 | 73.1 |
| Mar 12 | UNLV | N | W 80–60 | −8.5 | W+11.5 | 156.5 | U140 | 114.6 | 86.0 | 69.8 |
| Mar 7 | New Mexico | H | W 94–90 | −7.5 | L−3.5 | 156.5 | O184 | 135.8 | 130.0 | 69.2 |
| Mar 3 | UNLV | A | L 65–92 | −7.5 | L−34.5 | 156.5 | O157 | 92.5 | 130.9 | 70.3 |
| Feb 28 | Grand Canyon | H | W 74–69 | −9.5 | L−4.5 | 148.0 | U143 | 116.4 | 108.5 | 63.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeWeber StUtah State
Efficiency
105.3
115.7
112.3
97.3
74.6
71.1
6.8
-11.1
Shooting
44.2%
63.5%
45.8%
69.0%
28.1%
34.2%
61.5%
67.4%
26.5%
35.2%
Ball control & glass
13.9%
17.3%
13.9%
20.7%
29.6%
35.5%
24.2%
28.6%
11.3%
12.4%
15.7%
7.1%
Style
43.5%
31.1%
39.0%
60.9%
11.7%
21.2%
53.6%
69.0%
40.3%
33.5%
Roster
2.10
3.15
6'4.9"
6'5.6"
9.2%
25.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputWeber St
Returning minutes: 9.2%Returning production: 6.6%
Lost
- Tijan Saine Jr. 32.6 mpg, 17.5 ppg · transferred to FIU
- Malek Gomma 25.1 mpg, 8.0 ppg · transferred to Utah
- Viljami Vartiainen 24.3 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to Santa Barbara
- Nigel Burris 23.2 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Edwin Suarez Jr. 20.9 mpg, 8.9 ppg · transferred to Temple
- Trevor Hennig 19.8 mpg, 8.2 ppg · transferred to ETSU
Added
- Augustine Ekwe from New Mexico St · 7.5 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
- Brock Felder from Seattle U · 5.9 mpg, 2.5 ppg last season
- Alvin Jackson III no D1 minutes last season
- Hunter Hansen no D1 minutes last season
- Dylan Warlick no D1 minutes last season
- Sir Marius Jones no D1 minutes last season
Returns 9% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Utah State
Returning minutes: 25.5%Returning production: 30.2%
Lost
- MJ Collins Jr. 30.8 mpg, 17.5 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Drake Allen 24.8 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kolby King 19.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · transferred to Auburn
- Adlan Elamin 18.9 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Garry Clark 16.6 mpg, 6.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Perryman 13.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
Added
- AJ Bates from Louisiana Tech · 33.4 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
- Dallin Hall from Virginia · 28.4 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
- Solomon Callaghan from Wright St · 26.5 mpg, 9.6 ppg last season
- Will Hornseth from Northern Iowa · 25.5 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Collin Mulholland from Chattanooga · 12.4 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
- Connor Turnbull from Evansville · 10.0 mpg, 5.8 ppg last season
Returns 25% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Nov 12 | 2025-26 | Weber St 73 – 83 Utah State |
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.