CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, NE

Bethune

Efficiency #260

2025-26: 17-15 · 14-5 conf

Creighton

Efficiency #92

2025-26: 16-18 · 9-12 conf

Wed, Nov 18 · TBD

70.0

win 18%

Projected

80.6

win 82%

No line posted yet.

Model: CREI −10.6 · total 150.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Creighton 68.5, Bethune 69.5 → 69.7 possessions

+2.9

Creighton offense vs Bethune defense

+3.0

Bethune offense vs Creighton defense

−3.6

Projected total

150.6

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Creighton offense vs Bethune defense

+3.0

Bethune offense vs Creighton defense

+3.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Creighton by 10.6

10.6

Bethune side ◂▸ Creighton side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.5 against a projected 150.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Creighton.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bethune is the faster team (70.9, #57 of 365) and Creighton the slower (68.6, #165). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.6

model

Projected team totals

70.0 / 80.6

Bethune / Creighton

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.5#85

Bethune

68.5#165

Creighton

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashBethune

Style match: 3-point volume

Bethune rarely shoots threes (29.7% of its shots); Creighton runs teams off the line (32.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 26.9% — both habits push the same way.

ClashBethune

Style match: paint scoring

Bethune scores 49.1% of its points in the paint; Creighton gives up 50.4% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.9% — both habits push the same way.

ClashCreighton

Style clash: 3-point volume

Creighton takes 48.2% of its shots from three; Bethune runs teams off the line (33.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 42.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashBethune

Strength vs strength: free-throw rate

Bethune (#48 in free-throw rate) against Creighton (#5 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 31.7%. Historically Creighton's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).

ClashCreighton

Style clash: ball movement

Creighton assists on 58.4% of its made baskets; Bethune breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 53.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

ClashCreighton

Style clash: paint scoring

Creighton gets only 39.3% of its points in the paint; Bethune gives up 46.7% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 43.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

Bethune has the ball

OffenseCreighton allowsvs D1 avg

51.0% #195

51.1% #165

-0.4 pt/100

19.2% #328

13.7% #341

+0.7 pt/100

30.1% #194

29.5% #132

-0.4 pt/100

40.9% #48

24.8% #5

-0.4 pt/100

69.7% #279

—

-0.2 pt/100

Bethune net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100

Creighton has the ball

OffenseBethune allowsvs D1 avg

53.0% #103

49.7% #88

+0.3 pt/100

16.3% #161

15.8% #229

+1.0 pt/100

26.9% #301

31.7% #242

-1.1 pt/100

28.3% #340

38.6% #276

-0.1 pt/100

76.4% #44

—

+0.3 pt/100

Creighton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Bethuneoffense vsCreightondefense

Share of shots by zone

Bethune shoots

48.3

5.2

16.9

29.6

Creighton allows

40.7

6.1

21.8

31.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.1%#94	59.1%#197	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#337	41.4%#220	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.0%#353	33.1%#31	38.0%
Three	33.0%#230	35.1%#256	33.7%

Creightonoffense vsBethunedefense

Share of shots by zone

Creighton shoots

31.2

5.3

15.6

47.9

Bethune allows

47.2

5.5

14.5

32.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.2%#33	54.6%#52	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.6%#322	35.9%#89	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.8%#152	39.8%#233	38.0%
Three	34.1%#167	32.9%#112	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Bethune

−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#273 of 365

Off reb %

30.1%

#194

Def reb %

68.3%

#242

Turnover %

19.2%

#328

Forced TO %

15.8%

#229

FT rate

40.9%

#48

FT allowed

38.6%

#276

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−1.7

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn+1.5

Foul shots allowed−0.9

Creighton

−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#257 of 365

Off reb %

26.9%

#301

Def reb %

70.5%

#132

Turnover %

16.3%

#161

Forced TO %

13.7%

#341

FT rate

28.3%

#340

FT allowed

24.8%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers−2.0

Foul shots drawn−1.7

Foul shots allowed+2.7

Creighton has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.6 (#257 of 365) to Bethune’s −2.0 (#273).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bethune2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Jakobi Heady	G	Sr	6'6"	31-31	35.7	18.2	5.0	1.8	1.8	58.0%	41.5%	3.0	80.4%	25.2%
1	Arterio Morris	G	Jr	6'4"	30-8	27.7	11.5	3.8	2.9	3.0	44.0%	24.7%	2.4	56.6%	31.4%
5	Quentin Heady	F	Jr	6'6"	32-28	25.6	10.3	3.7	1.2	1.3	50.8%	28.6%	1.1	73.4%	23.2%
23	Daniel Rouzan	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	23.6	11.8	4.9	1.3	1.5	52.2%	20.0%	0.8	68.4%	29.2%
3	Seneca Willoughby	G	Sr	6'3"	29-25	25.5	4.1	3.4	2.7	1.4	44.1%	34.3%	2.4	73.2%	12.4%
4	Ariel Bland	F	Sr	6'7"	32-0	20.0	4.8	5.8	1.5	1.3	63.2%	0.0%	0.1	60.6%	14.2%
25	Tyler Andrews	G	Sr	6'6"	25-21	20.9	6.9	2.6	0.9	1.2	60.9%	42.0%	3.5	67.7%	18.2%
11	Jordan Johnson	G	Jr	6'4"	32-7	16.0	4.9	1.3	0.5	0.5	46.2%	29.7%	3.2	60.9%	20.1%
2	Rickey Mitchell Jr.	G	Jr	6'4"	14-4	16.7	4.1	1.8	1.4	1.1	39.4%	30.0%	2.9	66.7%	20.4%
13	Doctor Bradley	G	Sr	6'8"	8-4	22.1	11.9	7.5	2.8	2.0	55.2%	28.6%	0.9	47.7%	33.0%
33	David Onanina	C	Jr	6'8"	9-0	7.7	1.6	2.2	0.3	0.6	50.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	17.3%
12	Dailon Minor	G	Fr	6'1"	9-0	4.9	1.3	0.3	0.4	1.2	33.3%	40.0%	0.6	66.7%	30.6%
22	William Gonzalez	G	Fr	6'6"	4-0	3.0	2.3	0.0	0.3	0.3	150.0%	100.0%	0.8	—	17.4%
30	Simeon Womack	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	2.0	1.7	0.7	0.0	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	60.0%	45.7%
24	Trayvon Barbary	G	Sr	6'4"	2-0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
15	Reggie Ward Jr.	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Creighton2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Jasen Green	F	Jr	6'8"	33-30	28.4	10.5	6.3	2.4	1.4	58.5%	35.1%	1.7	66.7%	20.8%
5	Nik Graves	G	Sr	6'2"	34-22	26.7	10.9	3.0	4.4	1.6	45.4%	28.4%	3.9	84.4%	25.9%
1	Austin Swartz	G	So	6'4"	30-14	21.6	10.9	2.8	1.4	1.2	56.2%	38.3%	5.6	70.8%	29.1%
41	Isaac Traudt	F	Jr	6'10"	34-23	18.9	6.5	2.5	0.4	0.4	56.0%	37.5%	4.7	85.0%	18.6%
2	Blake Harper	G	So	6'7"	34-14	18.4	7.7	3.6	1.2	1.3	52.0%	36.4%	1.6	77.6%	25.2%
7	Fedor Zugic	G	Jr	6'6"	34-8	16.2	5.2	2.0	0.9	0.8	48.6%	30.5%	2.8	82.5%	20.2%
9	Ty Davis	G	So	6'4"	33-12	11.3	1.2	1.6	1.2	0.8	35.1%	20.0%	0.6	78.9%	11.4%
10	Hudson Greer	G	Fr	6'7"	22-0	13.7	4.7	2.0	0.4	0.8	56.0%	40.4%	2.1	62.5%	21.0%
17	Kerem Konan	F	Fr	6'9"	30-0	8.4	2.6	1.8	0.4	0.6	60.0%	—	0.0	65.5%	18.7%
23	Jackson McAndrew	F	So	6'10"	4-4	20.5	6.8	4.5	0.5	0.3	41.4%	28.6%	5.3	50.0%	23.1%
12	Shane Thomas	G	So	6'3"	18-0	3.4	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.2	46.2%	0.0%	0.2	37.5%	19.4%
53	Josh Townley-Thomas	F	Jr	6'10"	1-0	5.0	6.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	75.0%	—	0.0	—	54.6%
27	Aleksa Dimitrijevic	C	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bethune2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Jakobi Heady	G	Sr	6'6"	31-31	35.7	18.2	5.0	1.8	1.8	58.0%	41.5%	3.0	80.4%	25.2%
1	Arterio Morris	G	Jr	6'4"	30-8	27.7	11.5	3.8	2.9	3.0	44.0%	24.7%	2.4	56.6%	31.4%
5	Quentin Heady	F	Jr	6'6"	32-28	25.6	10.3	3.7	1.2	1.3	50.8%	28.6%	1.1	73.4%	23.2%
23	Daniel Rouzan	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	23.6	11.8	4.9	1.3	1.5	52.2%	20.0%	0.8	68.4%	29.2%
3	Seneca Willoughby	G	Sr	6'3"	29-25	25.5	4.1	3.4	2.7	1.4	44.1%	34.3%	2.4	73.2%	12.4%
4	Ariel Bland	F	Sr	6'7"	32-0	20.0	4.8	5.8	1.5	1.3	63.2%	0.0%	0.1	60.6%	14.2%
25	Tyler Andrews	G	Sr	6'6"	25-21	20.9	6.9	2.6	0.9	1.2	60.9%	42.0%	3.5	67.7%	18.2%
11	Jordan Johnson	G	Jr	6'4"	32-7	16.0	4.9	1.3	0.5	0.5	46.2%	29.7%	3.2	60.9%	20.1%
2	Rickey Mitchell Jr.	G	Jr	6'4"	14-4	16.7	4.1	1.8	1.4	1.1	39.4%	30.0%	2.9	66.7%	20.4%
13	Doctor Bradley	G	Sr	6'8"	8-4	22.1	11.9	7.5	2.8	2.0	55.2%	28.6%	0.9	47.7%	33.0%
33	David Onanina	C	Jr	6'8"	9-0	7.7	1.6	2.2	0.3	0.6	50.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	17.3%
12	Dailon Minor	G	Fr	6'1"	9-0	4.9	1.3	0.3	0.4	1.2	33.3%	40.0%	0.6	66.7%	30.6%
22	William Gonzalez	G	Fr	6'6"	4-0	3.0	2.3	0.0	0.3	0.3	150.0%	100.0%	0.8	—	17.4%
30	Simeon Womack	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	2.0	1.7	0.7	0.0	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	60.0%	45.7%
24	Trayvon Barbary	G	Sr	6'4"	2-0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
15	Reggie Ward Jr.	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Bethune

Against the spread

Season

15-15-1

Home

6-4

Road

9-8-1

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

17-14

Home

5-5

Road

12-6

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +2.7

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	N	L 67–71	−5.5	L−9.5	148.0	U138	101.9	108.0	65.8
Mar 5	Florida A&MAdjEM #316	A	L 77–81	−2.5	L−6.5	145.5	O158	107.3	112.9	71.8
Feb 28	SouthernAdjEM #286	A	W 82–79	+2.0	W+5.0	153.0	O161	110.6	106.6	74.1
Feb 26	GramblingAdjEM #290	A	W 76–71	+1.0	W+6.0	144.0	O147	99.8	93.3	76.1
Feb 21	Alabama A&MAdjEM #312	H	W 85–76	−7.0	W+2.0	143.0	O161	125.6	112.3	67.7
Feb 19	Alabama StAdjEM #324	H	W 82–71	−5.5	W+5.5	148.0	O153	114.8	99.4	71.4
Feb 16	Jackson StAdjEM #353	A	L 86–91	−5.0	L−10.0	150.0	O177	111.5	118.0	77.2
Feb 14	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	A	L 55–57	−8.0	L−10.0	145.0	U112	86.2	89.3	63.8
Feb 9	Texas SouthernAdjEM #321	H	W 79–69 OT	−8.5	W+1.5	152.0	U148	106.5	93.0	74.2
Feb 7	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	H	W 82–76	−10.5	L−4.5	157.5	O158	107.5	99.7	76.3

Creighton

Against the spread

Season

11-23

Home

4-12

Road

5-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −1.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-18

Home

9-7

Road

5-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.1

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	N	L 70–87	+1.5	L−15.5	137.0	O157	103.6	128.7	67.6
Apr 2	RutgersAdjEM #192	N	W 82–69	−5.0	W+8.0	151.5	U151	110.3	92.8	74.4
Mar 12	Seton HallAdjEM #56	N	L 61–72	+3.0	L−8.0	135.5	U133	88.5	104.4	68.9
Mar 4	ButlerAdjEM #87	A	W 76–59	+2.5	W+19.5	155.5	U135	107.4	83.4	70.8
Feb 28	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	H	L 76–79	−4.0	L−7.0	167.0	U155	111.9	116.3	67.9
Feb 25	DePaulAdjEM #113	H	L 71–72	−4.5	L−5.5	142.5	O143	109.3	110.8	65.0
Feb 21	#17St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 52–81	+12.5	L−16.5	155.5	U133	69.6	108.4	74.7
Feb 18	#5UConnAdjEM #10	A	W 91–84	+15.5	W+22.5	143.0	O175	120.7	111.4	75.4
Feb 14	VillanovaAdjEM #40	H	L 69–80	+2.5	L−8.5	146.0	O149	99.5	115.3	69.4
Feb 11	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	L 71–72	−1.0	L−2.0	141.0	O143	114.8	116.4	61.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BethuneCreighton

Efficiency

104.6

111.6

109.7

107.2

69.5

68.5

—

Shooting

51.0%

53.0%

51.6%

54.7%

33.0%

34.1%

69.7%

76.4%

40.9%

28.3%

Ball control & glass

19.2%

16.3%

15.8%

13.7%

30.1%

26.9%

31.7%

29.5%

11.6%

9.9%

7.1%

10.4%

Style

29.7%

48.2%

49.1%

39.3%

19.9%

15.1%

50.4%

58.4%

32.9%

35.3%

Roster

3.59

2.63

6'5.5"

6'6.1"

—

79.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Bethune

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Creighton

Returning minutes: 79.0%Returning production: 76.2%

Lost

Josh Dix 32.9 mpg, 13.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Owen Freeman 9.0 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Auburn
Liam McChesney 0.2 mpg, 0.1 ppg · transferred to Manhattan

Added

Aleksa Dimitrijevic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.