CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceJMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, NY
Cornell
Efficiency #135
2025-26: 15-13 · 8-7 conf
@
Syracuse
Efficiency #85
2025-26: 15-17 · 6-13 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · 7:00 PM ET
78.6
win 30%
Projected
84.8
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: SYR −6.2 · total 163.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Syracuse 68.3, Cornell 70.9 → 70.9 possessions
+5.6
Syracuse offense vs Cornell defense
+5.9
Cornell offense vs Syracuse defense
+3.8
Projected total
163.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Syracuse offense vs Cornell defense
+5.9
Cornell offense vs Syracuse defense
−3.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Syracuse by 6.2
6.2
Cornell side ◂▸ Syracuse side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Syracuse.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cornell is the faster team (71.3, #40 of 365) and Syracuse the slower (67.8, #212). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
163.5
model
Projected team totals
78.6 / 84.8
Cornell / Syracuse
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.9#19
Cornell
68.3#185
Syracuse

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageCornell
Where Cornell scores: shooting
Cornell shoots an effective 58.5% (#7); Syracuse allows 50.3% (#116). Expect about 54.9%, 3.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSyracuse
Where Syracuse scores: shooting
Syracuse shoots an effective 52.6% (#122); Cornell allows 55.9% (#343). Expect about 54.4%, 3.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.4 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseSyracuse
Syracuse's shot-blocking
Syracuse ranks #7 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.5% of Cornell's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
ClashCornell
Style clash: 3-point volume
Cornell takes 51.6% of its shots from three; Syracuse runs teams off the line (35.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Cornell, Cornell's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Cornell at about 46.9% of its shots from three, Syracuse about 36.8%.
TurnoversSyracuse
Syracuse protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Syracuse's offense.
Cornell has the ball
OffenseSyracuse allowsvs D1 avg
58.5% #7
50.3% #116
+5.2 pt/100
16.0% #139
17.4% #124
+0.1 pt/100
30.2% #193
33.6% #310
+0.9 pt/100
30.2% #304
32.6% #117
-0.5 pt/100
74.1% #124
—
+0.2 pt/100
Cornell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.8 pts/100
Syracuse has the ball
OffenseCornell allowsvs D1 avg
52.6% #122
55.9% #343
+4.4 pt/100
16.0% #136
15.1% #279
+1.9 pt/100
29.2% #228
30.6% #187
-0.4 pt/100
35.1% #171
37.2% #244
+0.2 pt/100
64.8% #361
—
-0.7 pt/100
Syracuse net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Cornelloffense vsSyracusedefense
Share of shots by zone
Cornell shoots
Syracuse allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.8%#7760.1%#23258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)51.5%#738.1%#13839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.5%#3131.0%#938.0%
Three38.3%#1434.1%#18633.7%
Syracuseoffense vsCornelldefense
Share of shots by zone
Syracuse shoots
Cornell allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.4%#6460.7%#25658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.9%#12644.6%#28539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.8%#23341.7%#29338.0%
Three32.9%#23937.5%#34933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Cornell
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#281 of 365
Off reb %
30.2%
#193
Def reb %
69.4%
#187
Turnover %
16.0%
#139
Forced TO %
15.1%
#279
FT rate
30.2%
#304
FT allowed
37.2%
#244
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Syracuse
+0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#165 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#228
Def reb %
66.4%
#310
Turnover %
16.0%
#136
Forced TO %
17.4%
#124
FT rate
35.1%
#171
FT allowed
32.6%
#117
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.5
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed+0.7

Syracuse has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.4 (#165 of 365) to Cornell’s −2.4 (#281).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Cornell2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
31Cooper NoardGSr6'2"28-2827.518.23.32.01.661.6%37.6%7.690.3%31.6%
8Adam HintonGSr6'4"28-2824.612.53.11.91.359.1%41.5%4.877.6%26.1%
5Jacob BecclesGJr6'3"28-2723.47.72.53.11.352.9%32.8%2.267.3%19.8%
22Jake FiegenGSr6'4"24-1726.117.15.12.11.264.9%41.4%5.577.2%30.4%
21Kaspar SeppFJr6'7"28-1518.84.85.52.61.350.5%23.8%0.866.0%17.2%
24Josh BaldwinGSr6'5"26-1319.07.44.13.21.752.2%33.9%2.370.0%24.9%
7Anthony NimaniGSo6'4"22-017.35.41.61.91.065.5%52.0%1.184.6%16.4%
23DJ NixFSr6'6"27-1112.33.51.71.10.753.8%37.3%1.956.3%17.4%
4Gioacchino PanziniFSo6'5"26-010.83.92.00.60.577.6%50.0%0.957.1%15.9%
14Corbin ZentnerGSr5'9"24-111.63.30.90.80.357.8%38.6%2.466.7%14.6%
0DaMaryon FishburnGJr6'5"21-08.62.52.01.50.783.3%58.3%0.657.1%14.2%
10Mateen RafiqGSo6'0"18-09.34.31.31.50.366.4%46.3%2.371.4%20.2%
2Ian ImegwuFJr6'9"15-05.74.91.30.90.269.2%48.9%3.050.0%34.4%
3Jax AbalosFFr6'8"12-06.42.80.40.30.253.6%27.3%1.880.0%21.7%
55AJ LaBeauFJr6'10"10-04.10.71.21.00.533.3%0.0%0.133.3%19.3%
12Ryan BurbachGFr6'3"5-08.22.61.60.20.431.6%15.4%2.6100.0%27.3%
11Ty IwanonkiwFSo6'9"3-07.74.01.00.70.066.7%44.4%3.0—19.2%
13AJ RodriguezGSo6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Blake LecklitnerFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Elijah GriffinGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
CornellSyracuse
Efficiency
116.2
111.0
114.3
106.1
70.9
68.3
—
—
Shooting
58.5%
52.6%
59.7%
54.5%
38.3%
32.9%
74.1%
64.8%
30.2%
35.1%
Ball control & glass
16.0%
16.0%
15.1%
17.4%
30.2%
29.2%
30.6%
33.6%
9.1%
9.9%
9.6%
7.9%
Style
51.6%
37.2%
38.9%
47.6%
14.4%
15.5%
66.7%
47.1%
41.9%
27.2%
Roster
3.37
2.86
6'3.9"
6'6.6"
—
15.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Cornell
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Syracuse
Returning minutes: 15.6%Returning production: 13.6%
Lost
  • Naithan George 32.2 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Nate Kingz 31.3 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • William Kyle III 28.1 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • J.J. Starling 27.2 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
  • Donnie Freeman 22.5 mpg, 11.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Tyler Betsey 17.5 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Gavin Doty from Siena · 36.7 mpg, 18.0 ppg last season
  • Aiden Tobiason from Temple · 35.4 mpg, 15.3 ppg last season
  • Luke Wilson from App State · 28.2 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
  • Francis Folefac from Siena · 28.1 mpg, 11.3 ppg last season
  • Garwey Dual from McNeese · 26.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg last season
  • Tasman Goodrick from Siena · 6.0 mpg, 2.5 ppg last season

Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.