James Madison Dukes vs Towson Tigers basketball preview & prediction

Wed, Nov 18 · 7:00 PM ET · SECU Arena, Towson, MD

Non-conferenceSECU Arena, Towson, MD

James Madison

0-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #187

Towson

1-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #150

Wed, Nov 18 · 7:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, James Madison is the faster team (71.0, #176 of 365) and Towson the slower (68.2, #262). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.9

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.1#217

James Madison

67.3#349

Towson

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Towson has the ball+2.7

James Madison has the ball−2.7

Towson has the ball

✓Wins second chancesOR% 37.3% #83 · JMU allows 34.8% #250+2.3

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 20.5% #259 · JMU forces 12.7% #320 · ~11 turnovers+1.8

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 41.8% #120 · JMU allows 27.5% #69 · FT 50.7% #349−1.4

✓Shoots it welleFG% 46.2% #255 · JMU allows 55.0% #2590.0

James Madison has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 49.6% #188 · TOW allows 47.2% #114−1.9

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 22.5% #328 · TOW allows 40.0% #214 · FT 64.5% #261−0.8

✗Few second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · TOW allows 28.4% #131−0.1

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 13.4% #51 · TOW forces 22.5% #62 · ~12 turnovers0.0

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

James Madisonoffense vsTowsondefense

Share of shots by zone

James Madison shoots

31.5

6.3

7.9

54.3

Towson allows

31.2

8.7

6.5

53.6

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.0%#261	48.8%#67	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	12.5%#314	58.3%#302	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.0%#117	44.4%#256	34.7%
Three	36.7%#102	30.5%#136	32.5%

Towsonoffense vsJames Madisondefense

Share of shots by zone

Towson shoots

46.5

5.2

14.2

34.2

James Madison allows

43.2

5.6

12.0

39.2

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	47.2%#298	61.1%#212	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.5%#165	57.1%#295	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.4%#151	40.0%#212	34.7%
Three	34.5%#138	34.6%#219	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

James Madison

−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#209 of 365

Off reb %

33.3%

#135

Def reb %

65.2%

#250

Turnover %

13.4%

#51

Forced TO %

12.7%

#320

FT rate

22.5%

#328

FT allowed

27.5%

#69

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−1.1

Ball security+3.4

Forcing turnovers−3.8

Foul shots drawn−3.9

Foul shots allowed+2.7

Towson

+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#107 of 365

Off reb %

37.3%

#83

Def reb %

71.6%

#131

Turnover %

20.5%

#259

Forced TO %

22.5%

#62

FT rate

41.8%

#120

FT allowed

40.0%

#214

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.9

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−1.6

Forcing turnovers+3.1

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed−0.5

Towson has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#107 of 365) to James Madison’s −2.0 (#209).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

James Madison2026-27 numbers · last game: Kentucky, Nov 6

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	G	Sr	6'6"	2-2	26.0	24	—	Started last	7.5	5.5	3.0	0.5	44.1%	37.5%	4.0	0.0%	19.9%
12	F	Jr	6'11"	2-2	25.5	24	—	Started last	11.5	5.0	1.5	0.5	91.7%	75.0%	4.0	33.3%	15.9%
24	G	Jr	6'3"	2-2	25.5	25	—	Started last	8.5	3.0	3.5	4.0	34.1%	23.1%	6.5	50.0%	35.2%
15	G	So	6'4"	2-2	25.0	28	—	Started last	16.5	3.0	1.0	1.5	47.7%	37.5%	4.0	75.0%	36.8%
13	F	So	6'8"	2-2	25.0	25	—	Started last	4.0	5.5	1.0	0.0	25.0%	9.1%	5.5	100.0%	16.3%
1	G	Jr	6'3"	2-0	22.5	22	—	Bench	13.0	1.5	1.5	0.5	71.9%	46.7%	7.5	100.0%	23.0%
11	G	Jr	6'1"	2-0	17.5	16	—	Bench	2.5	2.0	2.0	1.5	20.8%	14.3%	3.5	—	23.9%
6	G	Fr	6'0"	2-0	17.0	18	—	Bench	9.5	1.0	1.5	1.0	79.2%	50.0%	3.0	—	23.1%
5	F	Jr	6'9"	2-0	14.5	16	—	Bench	5.5	4.0	1.0	0.0	45.5%	66.7%	1.5	33.3%	24.1%
0	F	So	6'7"	1-0	1.0	0	—	Missed last game	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

James Madison

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

0-1

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +2.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

2-0

Home

1-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

2-0

avg vs total +9.0

Over 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 6	#23KentuckyAdjEM #40	A	L 80–89	+24.0	W+15.0	156.5	O169	117.5	130.7	68.1
Nov 2	Miami OHAdjEM #88	H	L 77–86	−1.0	L−10.0	157.5	O163	104.3	116.5	73.8
Mar 5	Southern MissAdjEM #219	N	L 80–86	−2.0	L−8.0	143.5	O166	111.1	119.4	72.0
Mar 4	LouisianaAdjEM #313	N	W 87–72	−6.5	W+8.5	135.0	O159	122.3	101.2	71.2
Feb 27	CoastalAdjEM #292	H	L 68–69	−6.0	L−7.0	142.0	U137	107.0	108.6	63.5
Feb 25	GA SouthernAdjEM #207	H	W 82–66	−5.5	W+10.5	153.5	U148	116.4	93.7	70.4
Feb 21	Georgia StAdjEM #285	A	W 80–65	−2.5	W+12.5	142.5	O145	119.4	97.0	67.0
Feb 18	CoastalAdjEM #292	A	W 67–65	−1.0	W+1.0	141.5	U132	102.2	99.1	65.6
Feb 14	App StateAdjEM #155	H	W 69–58	+1.5	W+12.5	135.0	U127	112.7	94.7	61.2
Feb 12	Georgia StAdjEM #285	H	W 81–79 OT	−6.0	L−4.0	144.0	O160	109.5	106.8	74.0

Towson

Against the spread

Season

1-2

Home

1-0

Road

0-2

Last 10

1-2

avg cover +1.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

1-2

Home

0-1

Road

1-1

Last 10

1-2

avg vs total −9.7

Under 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	Long IslandAdjEM #244	H	W 66–46	−8.0	W+12.0	139.5	U112	100.5	70.0	65.7
Nov 5	UtahAdjEM #158	A	L 57–67	+8.0	L−2.0	138.0	U124	87.0	102.3	65.5
Nov 2	Santa ClaraAdjEM #53	A	L 70–89	+13.5	L−5.5	146.5	O159	95.4	121.3	73.4
Mar 9	HofstraAdjEM #105	N	L 65–68 OT	+4.0	W+1.0	131.5	O133	106.8	111.7	60.9
Mar 8	CharlestonAdjEM #157	N	W 81–56	+2.5	W+27.5	139.0	U137	134.0	92.7	60.4
Mar 7	HamptonAdjEM #273	N	W 74–68	−7.5	L−1.5	132.0	O142	108.9	100.1	67.9
Mar 3	Stony BrookAdjEM #218	A	W 69–57	−1.0	W+11.0	135.5	U126	112.7	93.1	61.2
Feb 28	CampbellAdjEM #248	H	W 71–67	−5.0	L−1.0	141.5	U138	120.0	113.2	59.2
Feb 26	ElonAdjEM #151	H	W 58–56	−5.5	L−3.5	144.0	U114	94.1	90.9	61.6
Feb 22	DrexelAdjEM #214	A	L 62–68	−2.5	L−8.5	131.0	U130	93.9	102.9	66.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

James MadisonTowson

Efficiency

108.6

101.5

110.2

100.4

70.1

67.3

10.4

2.4

Shooting

49.6%

46.2%

42.4%

43.5%

36.7%

34.5%

64.5%

50.7%

22.5%

41.8%

Ball control & glass

13.4%

20.5%

12.7%

22.5%

33.3%

37.3%

34.8%

28.4%

11.3%

10.8%

13.6%

15.7%

Style

57.2%

32.4%

28.0%

46.6%

9.6%

9.3%

59.3%

42.0%

36.2%

33.9%

Roster

2.71

2.29

6'5.2"

6'6.3"

14.8%

25.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

James Madison

Returning minutes: 14.8%Returning production: 10.4%

Lost

Cliff Davis 31.3 mpg, 15.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Bradley Douglas 26.8 mpg, 11.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Eddie Ricks III 25.9 mpg, 6.9 ppg · transferred to Loyola Chicago
Justin McBride 25.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
Gabe Newhof 18.9 mpg, 8.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christian Brown 13.3 mpg, 3.0 ppg · transferred to Ole Miss

Added

Gage Lattimore from NC Central · 35.7 mpg, 16.1 ppg last season
Jacob Hogarth from Gardner-Webb · 25.0 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
Adrian Myers from San José St · 24.2 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
Garrett Sundra from Notre Dame · 17.9 mpg, 3.5 ppg last season
Marley Curtis from North Dakota · 14.3 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
K.J. Windham from Northwestern · 5.1 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season

Returns 15% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Towson

Returning minutes: 25.7%Returning production: 21.8%

Lost

Dylan Williamson 35.9 mpg, 14.6 ppg · transferred to Rhode Island
Tyler Tejada 33.4 mpg, 16.7 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
Jack Doumbia Jr. 22.5 mpg, 10.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tyler Coleman 18.8 mpg, 5.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mor Seck 14.5 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tyler Schmidt 13.2 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Ben Roseborough from San José St · 9.2 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
Denis Badalau from Rutgers · 8.8 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
Zion Stanford from Villanova · 1.5 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
Jon Barton no D1 minutes last season
Devan Kirk no D1 minutes last season
Alex Atkinson no D1 minutes last season

Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Nov 18	2025-26	Towson 75 – 81 James Madison

More games on Wed, Nov 18

Jackson St at Baylor · 12:00 PM ET
Navy at Georgetown · 6:30 PM ET
IU Indy at Penn State · 6:30 PM ET
Detroit Mercy at E Michigan · 6:30 PM ET
Chattanooga at Winthrop · 6:30 PM ET
Samford at SC Upstate · 6:30 PM ET
Tennessee Tech at UNC Asheville · 6:30 PM ET
Binghamton at Lafayette · 7:00 PM ET
Brown at Holy Cross · 7:00 PM ET
Wofford at Charleston So · 7:00 PM ET
Chicago St at UIC · 7:00 PM ET
NJIT at FDU · 7:00 PM ET
UNC Wilmington at Long Island · 7:00 PM ET
NC Central at George Mason · 7:00 PM ET
Siena at St John's · 7:00 PM ET
Vermont at Yale · 7:00 PM ET
Morehead St at Ohio · 7:00 PM ET
Elon at South Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
Morgan St at NC A&T · 7:00 PM ET
VMI at Longwood · 7:00 PM ET
Furman at Radford · 7:00 PM ET
FGCU at FAU · 7:00 PM ET
Boston U at Merrimack · 7:00 PM ET
Coppin St at La Salle · 7:00 PM ET
Howard vs Duquesne · 7:00 PM ET
Mercer at Presbyterian · 7:00 PM ET
N Illinois at Marquette · 7:30 PM ET
Youngstown St at Cincinnati · 7:30 PM ET
LSU N Orleans at Texas Tech · 7:30 PM ET
Campbell at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
Boston College at Harvard · 8:00 PM ET
Wichita St at Loyola Chicago · 8:00 PM ET
UL Monroe at LSU · 8:00 PM ET
New Hampshire at Stonehill · 8:00 PM ET
Cornell at Syracuse · 8:00 PM ET
Purdue FW at Bradley · 8:00 PM ET
AR-Pine Bluff at Arkansas St · 8:00 PM ET
Incarnate Word at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
Florida A&M at UTSA · 8:00 PM ET
UNC Greensboro at Gardner-Webb · 8:30 PM ET
South Dakota at Nebraska · 8:30 PM ET
Bethune at Creighton · 9:00 PM ET
UConn at Arizona · 9:00 PM ET
Portland at Colorado · 9:00 PM ET
Fresno St at San José St · 9:00 PM ET
Oakland at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
N Colorado at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
Alcorn St at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
Weber St at Utah State · 9:00 PM ET
N Dakota St at Colorado St · 9:00 PM ET
UC Riverside at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
Idaho at Nevada · 10:00 PM ET
Washington St vs Hawai'i · 10:00 PM ET
Texas Southern at San Diego St · 10:00 PM ET
Fullerton at UCLA · 10:30 PM ET
Louisiana at San Francisco · TBD

← Tue, Nov 17 · Thu, Nov 19 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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