CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceG.B. Hodge Center, Spartanburg, SC

Samford

Efficiency #202

2025-26: 18-14 · 11-8 conf

SC Upstate

Efficiency #284

2025-26: 13-19 · 5-12 conf

Wed, Nov 18 · TBD

73.1

win 48%

Projected

73.7

win 52%

No line posted yet.

Model: UPST −0.6 · total 146.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: SC Upstate 68.5, Samford 68.3 → 68.5 possessions

+0.3

SC Upstate offense vs Samford defense

−2.6

Samford offense vs SC Upstate defense

+0.8

Projected total

146.8

Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

SC Upstate offense vs Samford defense

−2.6

Samford offense vs SC Upstate defense

−0.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

SC Upstate by 0.6

0.6

Samford side ◂▸ SC Upstate side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.7 against a projected 146.8, and the margin steps add to +0.5 against +0.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SC Upstate.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SC Upstate is the faster team (69.3, #128 of 365) and Samford the slower (68.4, #176). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.8

model

Projected team totals

73.1 / 73.7

Samford / SC Upstate

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.3#182

Samford

68.5#171

SC Upstate

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSamford

Where Samford scores: ball control

Samford turns it over on 13.4% of possessions (#11); SC Upstate forces turnovers on 16.4% of opponent possessions (#194). Expect about 14.6%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSC Upstate

Style match: ball movement

SC Upstate creates off the dribble (assists on 46.0% of its baskets); Samford breaks up passing offenses (assists on 45.8% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 44.0% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseSC Upstate

SC Upstate's shot-blocking

SC Upstate ranks #39 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.8% of Samford's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageSC Upstate

Where SC Upstate struggles: shooting

SC Upstate shoots an effective 48.3% (#307); Samford allows 51.9% (#206). Expect about 49.8%, 1.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Samford's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Samford at about 42.3% of its shots from three, SC Upstate about 34.1%.

TurnoversSC Upstate

SC Upstate protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for SC Upstate's offense.

Samford has the ball

OffenseSC Upstate allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #101

51.0% #156

+1.2 pt/100

13.4% #11

16.4% #194

+2.7 pt/100

25.3% #333

31.4% #224

-1.9 pt/100

41.9% #32

36.0% #211

+0.5 pt/100

69.2% #293

—

-0.3 pt/100

Samford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.2 pts/100

SC Upstate has the ball

OffenseSamford allowsvs D1 avg

48.3% #307

51.9% #206

-2.0 pt/100

18.2% #283

13.0% #354

+2.0 pt/100

29.2% #231

25.7% #17

-1.9 pt/100

32.8% #239

32.9% #128

-0.3 pt/100

68.1% #324

—

-0.4 pt/100

SC Upstate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Samfordoffense vsSC Upstatedefense

Share of shots by zone

Samford shoots

35.0

4.3

14.4

46.3

SC Upstate allows

42.0

6.0

15.7

36.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.5%#63	54.7%#56	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	27.5%#359	45.5%#309	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.4%#136	35.7%#96	38.0%
Three	35.6%#84	35.6%#289	33.7%

SC Upstateoffense vsSamforddefense

Share of shots by zone

SC Upstate shoots

41.2

7.8

15.6

35.4

Samford allows

34.3

9.2

21.2

35.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.8%#303	57.1%#114	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#136	37.5%#124	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.5%#202	42.7%#325	38.0%
Three	31.4%#308	36.5%#326	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Samford

+2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#94 of 365

Off reb %

25.3%

#333

Def reb %

74.3%

#17

Turnover %

13.4%

#11

Forced TO %

13.0%

#354

FT rate

41.9%

#32

FT allowed

32.9%

#128

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.6

Defensive rebounding+1.6

Ball security+2.3

Forcing turnovers−2.5

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+0.6

SC Upstate

−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#289 of 365

Off reb %

29.2%

#231

Def reb %

68.6%

#224

Turnover %

18.2%

#283

Forced TO %

16.4%

#194

FT rate

32.8%

#239

FT allowed

36.0%

#211

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Samford has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.1 (#94 of 365) to SC Upstate’s −2.6 (#289).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Samford2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jadin Booth	G	Sr	6'2"	30-30	36.5	21.6	3.7	2.2	1.6	60.3%	43.6%	9.7	86.9%	29.2%
5	Cade Norris	G	So	6'4"	32-31	30.7	8.9	4.6	2.1	0.8	56.2%	40.4%	3.4	76.3%	15.7%
3	Keaton Norris	G	Sr	6'0"	28-28	32.9	10.0	4.3	4.9	1.4	47.4%	31.1%	4.7	83.6%	20.0%
0	Isaiah Campbell-Finch	G	Fr	6'0"	29-19	23.4	7.4	1.5	1.3	0.7	49.5%	32.1%	2.9	51.6%	20.0%
10	Kam Martin	G	So	6'4"	32-8	16.6	5.7	2.1	0.9	0.5	50.0%	32.6%	2.8	85.1%	19.6%
8	Zion Wilburn	G	So	6'5"	30-5	17.0	4.6	2.2	0.9	1.0	45.5%	29.6%	1.8	60.7%	19.6%
22	Jaxon Pollard	F	Sr	6'7"	25-8	13.0	3.2	3.7	0.6	0.3	37.4%	19.6%	2.0	60.0%	19.4%
35	Will Shaver	C	So	6'10"	30-0	9.6	2.7	2.6	0.8	1.1	50.8%	33.3%	0.4	59.3%	22.0%
4	Judson Bjornstad	F	So	6'8"	24-1	8.8	2.3	1.4	0.3	0.3	41.3%	28.6%	0.9	72.7%	17.1%
23	Caleb Harrison	F	Fr	6'9"	12-0	6.1	1.7	1.5	0.8	0.3	60.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	15.1%
33	Zach Lamey	G	So	6'3"	5-0	8.2	4.6	1.0	0.0	0.6	68.8%	46.2%	2.6	50.0%	26.5%
21	Corey Brown	G	So	6'4"	5-0	6.4	0.8	0.6	0.8	0.2	25.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	10.1%
11	Cooper Davenport	G	Fr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	DaJion Humphrey	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	JD Gossett	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
31	Joshua Hughes	F	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SC Upstate2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Carmelo Adkins	G	So	6'4"	32-15	29.9	13.5	4.9	1.6	2.0	47.2%	33.0%	5.9	80.7%	28.5%
1	Karmani Gregory	G	Jr	6'1"	31-30	30.5	15.6	2.2	2.9	2.2	49.0%	32.8%	5.9	74.6%	31.8%
9	Mason Bendinger	G	Jr	6'4"	32-31	29.4	14.4	3.7	1.2	1.8	47.0%	31.1%	2.3	53.8%	32.3%
0	Tyler Smith	G	Jr	6'0"	31-16	22.9	4.4	2.7	2.8	1.9	40.9%	29.8%	1.5	67.6%	17.1%
2	Isaiah Skinner	G	Sr	6'5"	32-8	20.0	5.1	3.1	1.8	1.0	51.8%	34.9%	3.3	85.7%	16.2%
11	Learic Davis	F	Jr	6'6"	28-20	21.8	8.3	4.6	0.8	1.3	55.6%	32.8%	2.4	75.0%	21.9%
12	Jafeth Martinez	F	Jr	6'9"	31-20	18.3	4.6	5.1	0.2	0.7	67.6%	—	0.0	65.6%	12.6%
7	Coen Collier	C	Jr	7'1"	30-9	14.1	1.8	3.8	0.6	0.5	43.1%	22.2%	0.3	37.5%	10.3%
10	Breylin Garcia	F	Sr	6'6"	21-7	14.8	6.7	4.5	0.9	1.0	60.6%	—	0.0	55.6%	25.4%
6	Kanye Jones	G	Jr	6'5"	22-1	8.9	2.7	0.3	0.4	0.2	50.0%	26.3%	0.9	81.3%	16.7%
24	Chico Johnson	G	So	6'2"	10-0	8.2	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.3	47.7%	42.9%	0.7	50.0%	18.4%
8	Nic Book	F	So	6'8"	7-2	10.3	4.6	3.1	0.4	0.3	81.3%	—	0.0	100.0%	15.8%
21	CJ Rich	G	Jr	5'9"	4-1	11.0	3.3	1.0	1.3	0.8	78.6%	75.0%	1.0	66.7%	13.8%
5	TJ Lewis	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Samford2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Jadin Booth	G	Sr	6'2"	30-30	36.5	21.6	3.7	2.2	1.6	60.3%	43.6%	9.7	86.9%	29.2%
5	Cade Norris	G	So	6'4"	32-31	30.7	8.9	4.6	2.1	0.8	56.2%	40.4%	3.4	76.3%	15.7%
3	Keaton Norris	G	Sr	6'0"	28-28	32.9	10.0	4.3	4.9	1.4	47.4%	31.1%	4.7	83.6%	20.0%
0	Isaiah Campbell-Finch	G	Fr	6'0"	29-19	23.4	7.4	1.5	1.3	0.7	49.5%	32.1%	2.9	51.6%	20.0%
10	Kam Martin	G	So	6'4"	32-8	16.6	5.7	2.1	0.9	0.5	50.0%	32.6%	2.8	85.1%	19.6%
8	Zion Wilburn	G	So	6'5"	30-5	17.0	4.6	2.2	0.9	1.0	45.5%	29.6%	1.8	60.7%	19.6%
22	Jaxon Pollard	F	Sr	6'7"	25-8	13.0	3.2	3.7	0.6	0.3	37.4%	19.6%	2.0	60.0%	19.4%
35	Will Shaver	C	So	6'10"	30-0	9.6	2.7	2.6	0.8	1.1	50.8%	33.3%	0.4	59.3%	22.0%
4	Judson Bjornstad	F	So	6'8"	24-1	8.8	2.3	1.4	0.3	0.3	41.3%	28.6%	0.9	72.7%	17.1%
23	Caleb Harrison	F	Fr	6'9"	12-0	6.1	1.7	1.5	0.8	0.3	60.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	15.1%
33	Zach Lamey	G	So	6'3"	5-0	8.2	4.6	1.0	0.0	0.6	68.8%	46.2%	2.6	50.0%	26.5%
21	Corey Brown	G	So	6'4"	5-0	6.4	0.8	0.6	0.8	0.2	25.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	10.1%
11	Cooper Davenport	G	Fr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	DaJion Humphrey	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	JD Gossett	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
31	Joshua Hughes	F	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Samford

Against the spread

Season

14-14-2

Home

7-5

Road

6-7-2

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +5.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-10-2

Home

5-5-2

Road

12-3

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.7

Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	FurmanAdjEM #163	N	L 81–86	−1.5	L−6.5	145.5	O167	117.4	124.6	69.0
Feb 28	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	H	W 87–78	−9.5	L−0.5	157.0	O165	119.8	107.4	72.6
Feb 26	VMIAdjEM #361	H	W 80–61	−17.0	W+2.0	156.0	U141	122.0	93.0	65.6
Feb 21	MercerAdjEM #161	A	L 86–89	+3.5	W+0.5	156.5	O175	122.2	126.4	70.4
Feb 19	The CitadelAdjEM #348	A	W 78–75	−10.5	L−7.5	144.0	O153	110.0	105.8	70.9
Feb 14	ETSUAdjEM #110	A	W 82–72 OT	+6.0	W+16.0	145.5	O154	109.0	95.7	75.2
Feb 11	WoffordAdjEM #235	H	W 97–80	−6.0	W+11.0	151.0	O177	133.0	109.7	72.9
Feb 7	MercerAdjEM #161	H	W 69–49	+2.0	W+22.0	161.0	U118	104.9	74.5	65.8
Feb 5	The CitadelAdjEM #348	H	W 78–64	−13.5	W+0.5	146.0	U142	120.5	98.9	64.7
Feb 1	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	A	W 88–74	−1.5	W+12.5	154.5	O162	121.5	102.2	72.4

SC Upstate

Against the spread

Season

13-16

Home

6-6

Road

7-9

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

13-15-1

Home

6-5-1

Road

7-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −2.4

Under 3 straightOver in 5 of 8 as an underdogOver in 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	N	L 64–65	−11.0	L−12.0	144.0	U129	99.1	100.7	64.6
Feb 28	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	H	W 71–61	−13.5	L−3.5	146.5	U132	101.0	86.8	70.3
Feb 26	RadfordAdjEM #245	A	L 59–71	+8.0	L−4.0	153.0	U130	87.6	105.4	67.4
Feb 21	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	H	W 76–74	+1.0	W+3.0	141.5	O150	118.0	114.9	64.4
Feb 19	WinthropAdjEM #116	A	L 64–68	+13.0	W+9.0	155.0	U132	95.3	101.2	67.2
Feb 14	LongwoodAdjEM #248	A	L 75–82 OT	+6.0	L−1.0	146.5	O157	89.6	98.0	83.7
Feb 12	High PointAdjEM #50	H	L 70–95	+14.0	L−11.0	154.5	O165	93.3	126.6	75.1
Feb 7	Charleston SoAdjEM #220	H	W 100–94 OT	+1.0	W+7.0	151.5	O194	129.9	122.1	77.0
Feb 4	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	A	L 67–76	+6.5	L−2.5	140.5	O143	99.2	112.5	67.6
Jan 29	LongwoodAdjEM #248	H	W 65–60	+1.5	W+6.5	147.5	U125	92.3	85.2	70.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

SamfordSC Upstate

Efficiency

109.1

102.8

110.4

109.0

68.3

68.5

—

Shooting

53.1%

48.3%

52.8%

48.9%

35.6%

31.4%

69.2%

68.1%

41.9%

32.8%

Ball control & glass

13.4%

18.2%

13.0%

16.4%

25.3%

29.2%

25.7%

31.4%

7.6%

10.6%

10.2%

11.0%

Style

45.7%

35.6%

37.7%

46.2%

10.8%

14.5%

55.2%

46.0%

28.1%

35.4%

Roster

2.69

2.98

6'3.3"

6'4.5"

87.9%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Samford

Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 77.5%

Lost

Dylan Faulkner 24.5 mpg, 16.1 ppg · transferred to Clemson

Added

JD Gossett no D1 minutes last season
Cooper Davenport no D1 minutes last season
DaJion Humphrey no D1 minutes last season
Joshua Hughes no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

SC Upstate

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.