CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBrooklyn Athletic Center, Brooklyn, NY
UNC Wilmington
Efficiency #86
2025-26: 27-7 · 15-4 conf
@
Long Island
Efficiency #195
2025-26: 24-11 · 18-3 conf
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
71.8
win 50%
Projected
71.7
win 50%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNCW −0.1 · total 143.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Long Island 68.6, UNC Wilmington 66.7 → 67.0 possessions
−2.8
Long Island offense vs UNC Wilmington defense
−2.9
UNC Wilmington offense vs Long Island defense
+1.0
Projected total
143.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Long Island offense vs UNC Wilmington defense
−2.9
UNC Wilmington offense vs Long Island defense
−1.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
UNC Wilmington by 0.1
0.1
UNC Wilmington side ◂▸ Long Island side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.5 against a projected 143.6, and the margin steps add to 0.0 against −0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Long Island.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Long Island is the faster team (68.2, #190 of 365) and UNC Wilmington the slower (66.1, #291). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.6
model
Projected team totals
71.8 / 71.7
UNC Wilmington / Long Island
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.7#307
UNC Wilmington
68.6#152
Long Island

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUNC Wilmington
Where UNC Wilmington scores: the offensive glass
UNC Wilmington rebounds 35.3% of its own misses (#40); Long Island lets opponents grab 33.0% of their own misses (#299). Expect about 35.1%, 4.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashUNC Wilmington
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
UNC Wilmington (#54 in shot-blocking exposure) against Long Island (#16 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.8%. Historically Long Island's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (UNC Wilmington's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UNC Wilmington at about 34.7% of its shots from three, Long Island about 33.4%.
AdvantageLong Island
Where Long Island struggles: shooting
Long Island shoots an effective 52.8% (#112); UNC Wilmington allows 47.5% (#30). Expect about 50.2%, 1.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.5 points per 100 possessions.
ClashUNC Wilmington
Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers
UNC Wilmington (#29 in live-ball turnovers) against Long Island (#43 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.0%. Historically Long Island's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).
ClashLong Island
Style clash: paint scoring
Long Island scores 51.9% of its points in the paint; UNC Wilmington protects the paint (39.1% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 43.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
UNC Wilmington has the ball
OffenseLong Island allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #220
50.0% #102
-1.6 pt/100
14.8% #57
18.8% #58
-0.2 pt/100
35.3% #40
33.0% #299
+2.8 pt/100
40.4% #54
34.7% #171
+0.3 pt/100
68.7% #306
—
-0.3 pt/100
UNC Wilmington net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.0 pts/100
Long Island has the ball
OffenseUNC Wilmington allowsvs D1 avg
52.8% #112
47.5% #30
-1.5 pt/100
18.9% #318
14.9% #295
-0.1 pt/100
33.9% #70
27.6% #51
+0.6 pt/100
34.0% #207
31.7% #99
-0.3 pt/100
66.7% #346
—
-0.5 pt/100
Long Island net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UNC Wilmingtonoffense vsLong Islanddefense
Share of shots by zone
UNC Wilmington shoots
Long Island allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.5%#14555.3%#7058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.1%#32749.1%#35039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.2%#30840.4%#25638.0%
Three35.0%#12432.2%#7233.7%
Long Islandoffense vsUNC Wilmingtondefense
Share of shots by zone
Long Island shoots
UNC Wilmington allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.7%#13358.8%#18258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.8%#22432.6%#2539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.7%#16239.3%#21538.0%
Three35.8%#6729.7%#633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UNC Wilmington
+5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#23 of 365
Off reb %
35.3%
#40
Def reb %
72.4%
#51
Turnover %
14.8%
#57
Forced TO %
14.9%
#295
FT rate
40.4%
#54
FT allowed
31.7%
#99
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed+0.9
Long Island
+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#172 of 365
Off reb %
33.9%
#70
Def reb %
67.0%
#299
Turnover %
18.9%
#318
Forced TO %
18.8%
#58
FT rate
34.0%
#207
FT allowed
34.7%
#171
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding−0.8
Ball security−1.5
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.1

UNC Wilmington has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.0 (#23 of 365) to Long Island’s +0.2 (#172).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UNC Wilmington2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UNC Wilmington's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
4Nolan HodgeGSr6'7"34-3432.314.24.61.61.052.7%39.3%6.976.8%25.1%
7Greedy WilliamsGSr6'5"34-3430.69.12.74.11.749.3%34.3%2.177.4%19.3%
5Noah RossGSr6'7"34-3429.29.45.11.90.847.0%25.6%2.369.4%21.1%
8Christian MayGSr6'5"33-3129.610.65.51.51.651.3%35.2%5.564.7%23.9%
2Patrick WesslerFJr7'1"34-3426.713.69.51.11.459.9%0.0%0.055.8%28.6%
1Madison DurrGSr6'5"34-021.610.32.82.21.242.6%31.9%2.075.4%30.1%
22Gavin WalshFJr6'8"15-326.09.56.51.00.949.2%32.6%3.145.8%24.0%
13Makoi Mabor MakoiFSo6'11"33-08.71.52.60.20.548.8%0.0%0.080.0%13.7%
0Jahnathan LamotheGJr6'4"19-015.05.41.70.70.554.6%40.3%3.553.3%21.9%
10Grady WhittGSo6'3"7-04.40.70.40.40.130.0%20.0%0.750.0%13.9%
12Makel SmithGSo6'1"8-03.62.00.30.00.366.7%40.0%1.30.0%27.7%
14JoJo FullwoodGSr6'2"8-03.00.10.30.00.30.0%0.0%0.150.0%15.9%
35Adam TokpahFFr6'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3CJ Luster IIGSr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Matija ProdanovicFFr6'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UNC WilmingtonLong Island
Efficiency
110.7
106.8
105.8
107.8
66.7
68.6
—
—
Shooting
50.4%
52.8%
49.1%
52.4%
35.0%
35.8%
68.7%
66.7%
40.4%
34.0%
Ball control & glass
14.8%
18.9%
14.9%
18.8%
35.3%
33.9%
27.6%
33.0%
7.8%
10.4%
7.9%
8.6%
Style
38.8%
29.3%
40.4%
51.9%
10.0%
19.4%
51.7%
50.2%
25.5%
24.1%
Roster
3.66
3.38
6'7"
6'5.5"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UNC Wilmington
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UNC Wilmington's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Long Island
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Long Island's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.